Disturbance 95L over Florida weakens

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:18 AM GMT on June 30, 2007

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Clouds and showers associated with a weak low pressure system (dubbed 95L by NHC) over South Florida have become very disorganized. Wind shear has increased to a high 25-30 knots. This high wind shear, combined with the fact that the storm's center is over land gives it no chance for development today.

Long range radar from Melbourne, Florida shows little activity over Florida this morning, but this will change during the afternoon when the afternoon sea breezes get going and help create the lift needed to trigger thunderstorms. Heavy rains of one to four inches were common across South Florida and the northwestern Bahama Islands Friday. Lesser amounts are likely today.

A trough of low pressure is scheduled to push off the U.S. Southeast Coast on Monday, and will probably sweep 95L out to sea in front of it. There is a chance 95L could develop on Monday as it moves to the northeast away from land, in front of the trough. Wind shear is forecast to drop on Monday to about 10-20 knots in this region, which is low enough to allow for some tropical development. However, none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation anywhere in the Atlantic over the coming week.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the disturbance over Florida.

One other area to watch is the region just north of Panama in the Southwest Caribbean. Wind shear values have dropped to 10 knots there this morning, and are forecast to remain low for several days.

Jeff Masters

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545. ryang
3:32 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
New blog up!!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12440
544. StormJunkie
3:30 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
tc, talk to patrap. He may have some info on this. Good source that patrap..

And welcome, nice to have ya here.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16855
543. truecajun
3:27 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
This is a little off topic, but we just moved away from my beloved cajun country into a house about a half mile West of the Mississippi River near Baton Rouge, LA.

Everyone says the Ms. river levies are safe and sound, but I'm still a little afraid. I'm going to research this topic a little. But before I start, I thought I'd ask y'all.

Are hurricanes a threat to the levies of the MS. river? In New Orleans, it was the Mr. Go outlet (Mississippi River Gulf Outlet) that ultimately lead to the problems.

Here near Baton Rouge, we are further North, so hurricanes winds and surge aren't as much of a threat as they were down on the bayous. Now I just worry about the river.

Maybe someone can explain my worries away. In the meantime, I'll be doing a little homework on this topic so I can better understand our new location and situation.

Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
542. StormJunkie
3:06 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
I still say the area N of the Bahamas is interesting. I know I have been told it is mid to upper level, but the rotation could work down and it is a well defined circulation. Just on the WNW edge of/ under the convection
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16855
541. IKE
3:03 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Latest NAM model run...12Z...shows a weak low in the NE GOM in 78 to 84 hours.

Link

The GFS and other models are pretty much showing it too. Should bring a lot of rain to the eastern gulf states.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
540. PensacolaDoug
2:44 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Gonna be a hot one here on the bayou....
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 568
539. BrandonC
2:38 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Good morning to all the lovely 1st of July. Yeh it is very hot here in Florida and it's only 10:40.
538. nash28
2:36 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
There is no doubt that July will bring more convective activity than we saw in June. Hate sounding like a broken record here but the pattern we were in last month and the pattern we are shifting to in July is normal.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
537. CaribbeanDude
2:35 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Don't worry all....or maybe you should worry....

With the shear forecasted for July, this is just the calm before the storm.

In a couple weeks, maybe less, there will be "blobs o' promise" all over the place.

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 46
536. nash28
2:15 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Good morning everyone. Hotter than the 4th circle of Hades already this morning....
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
535. StormJunkie
2:15 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Morning mlc, sounds good, enjoy!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16855
534. moonlightcowboy
2:14 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Good morning Taz, SJ, all.
All appears to mostly quiet. It'll be busy enough, soon enough.

I'm off to prepare a late lunch: jerk chiken, collards, corn and cornbread.

Have a good day, all! bbl
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
533. Tazmanian
2:05 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
532. chessrascal
2:03 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Taz that thing over the bahamas is just a front. 95l was a wave.
531. Tazmanian
1:56 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
i think that blob over the Bahamas is what was 95L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
530. chessrascal
1:54 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Thanks for the input SJ.
529. StormJunkie
1:49 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
It is interesting chess, but as LRandyB just pointed out to me the front is helping the convection to fire and once it moves on it is likely the convection will die off. Although right now it looks to me like there is some circulation on the WNW side of the convection
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16855
528. chessrascal
1:47 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
That blob over the Bahamas has a lot of convection this morning.
527. Dakster
1:37 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
wpbhurricane,

Wow. Lake O is still very low.. We're drowning here in Dade/Broward, while the Lake gets no rain.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10409
526. StormJunkie
1:19 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Morning all ☺

Area N of the Bahamas looks kinda of interesting...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16855
525. WPBHurricane05
1:15 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Happy Canada day to our northern neighbors.

Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
523. WPBHurricane05
1:04 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Lake O water level Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
522. Acesover8s
12:48 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Thanks Tstorm2. Just a shot in the dark. We need the rain right through the center of the state bad. Lake O broke another low water level today.
521. IKE
12:47 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Posted By: weathermanwannabe at 7:42 AM CDT on July 01, 2007.
Ike...You'll probably be getting some strong thunderstorms again this afternoon and tommorow...


Yup...had some yesterday from about 5 pm til around 8 or 9.

60% chance of rain today, Monday and Tuesday.

Looks like a weak low is suppose to form and get kicked NE later this week..according to the models..over the tri-state area.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
520. Thunderstorm2
12:43 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Mornin' All,

I'm out, gotta do somethings.

Be back This Afternoon!
Have a great Sunday!
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
519. weathermanwannabe
12:42 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Ike...You'll probably be getting some strong thunderstorms again this afternoon and tommorow...
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9213
518. Thunderstorm2
12:42 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Probably Not Acesover
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
517. weathermanwannabe
12:41 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Good Morning...Things are quiet today in the tropics and the front which was forcasted to "sweep" the Florida disturbance away is going to stall around the Florida/GA/AL border tommorow....This will bring much needed rain to North Florida and it looks the the regular summer pattern for Florida is finally starting to kick-in.....Given the present trough in the GOM, and the dropping shear in the tropics, once these systems "clear out", I would anticipate some type of development in the Carib or Gulf late this coming week (especially if a trough/front remnants are left around towards the end of the week)...I guess we'll be blob watching for the next several days waiting to see if something develops.....Have a good day all.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9213
516. Acesover8s
12:39 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
what about the blob over land around 65. any chance it has a shot when it gets over water?
515. IKE
12:37 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
The tropics throughout the globe....

"There are no active Tropical Storm advisories."......

There's only 1 disturbance, in the western PAC and it's prospects are poor.

*double yawn*
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
514. hurricane23
12:13 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 11:11 AM GMT on July 01, 2007. (hide)
Wind shear is low in the Central Atlantic, especially between 40W and 50W. A sign of the season?.

Thats correct and lets hope steering currents are on our side.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
513. CatWatchOne
12:11 PM GMT on July 01, 2007
Pig Latin = Igpay Atinlay

Then there is the IB language

Pig Latin = Pibig Libatin

I must be really bored !!

512. WPBHurricane05
11:11 AM GMT on July 01, 2007
Wind shear is low in the Central Atlantic, especially between 40W and 50W. A sign of the season? Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
511. spiceymonster
11:00 AM GMT on July 01, 2007
Look at that trough in the GOM no wonder nothing can form there, it almost goes from the US to the Yucatan,
Member Since: February 10, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 158
510. spiceymonster
10:59 AM GMT on July 01, 2007
:( oh well next blob that has some interest is where?
Member Since: February 10, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 158
509. WPBHurricane05
10:58 AM GMT on July 01, 2007
How is the panama blob? yesterday she/he was trying to get off land. Did it finally ship off.

The Panama blob died yesterday.

Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
508. spiceymonster
10:25 AM GMT on July 01, 2007
How is the panama blob? yesterday she/he was trying to get off land. Did it finally ship off.
Member Since: February 10, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 158
507. sporteguy03
9:54 AM GMT on July 01, 2007
Altestic,
Calm down....geez go have a BBQ or watch some fireworks, the season will get busy soon enough.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5350
504. RL3AO
8:51 AM GMT on July 01, 2007
And its July 1st so just have some patience. Bad seasons result in more damage and deaths, but I guess if it makes you happy, heres to 50 named storms.
501. moonlightcowboy
5:35 AM GMT on July 01, 2007
MLCgoodnight4.gif


...nite gang!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
500. RL3AO
5:34 AM GMT on July 01, 2007
This year has been incredibly active actually. 2 named systems and 6 invests.

If you go back to 2005, everyone is still watching for Cindy and in 2004 everyone is still watching for Alex.

Don't forget that it is only July 1st, we are still 2 months away from the peak of the season.
497. KoritheMan
5:02 AM GMT on July 01, 2007
You must not live in Florida on the water. A slow season is just what we are all wishing for

Not me, and I only live 60 miles from the ocean. I don't want a major hurricane landfall anywhere, but I don't want a slow season. Weather has to be interesting, or what's the point to even talk about it? And it's not SLOW; it's only July people, good God.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 583 Comments: 20821
496. VoirDire
4:49 AM GMT on July 01, 2007
Altestic87,

You must not live in Florida on the water. A slow season is just what we are all wishing for ( although I admit that the west coast of Fl could stand a decent hurricane to flush the toilet so to speak)
495. Skyepony (Mod)
4:38 AM GMT on July 01, 2007
Got the weather news updated in my blog. Flooding goes on & on~ Texas back under the flood, Kansas having issues over a large area. India & Pakastan takes the cake with 04B adding injury to insult. It's making a mess & killing more in India & headed for Pakastan which is wrecked & rioting from Yemyin.

Last week's rain


Cyclone Yemyin (TRMM)~ interesting NASA is now refuring to it as Yemyin..


TX/OK flooding, China/Bangledesh is out on TRMM now too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38146

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.