Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:18 AM GMT on June 30, 2007
Clouds and showers associated with a weak low pressure system (dubbed 95L by NHC) over South Florida have become very disorganized. Wind shear has increased to a high 25-30 knots. This high wind shear, combined with the fact that the storm's center is over land gives it no chance for development today.
Long range radar from Melbourne, Florida shows little activity over Florida this morning, but this will change during the afternoon when the afternoon sea breezes get going and help create the lift needed to trigger thunderstorms. Heavy rains of one to four inches were common across South Florida and the northwestern Bahama Islands Friday. Lesser amounts are likely today.
A trough of low pressure is scheduled to push off the U.S. Southeast Coast on Monday, and will probably sweep 95L out to sea in front of it. There is a chance 95L could develop on Monday as it moves to the northeast away from land, in front of the trough. Wind shear is forecast to drop on Monday to about 10-20 knots in this region, which is low enough to allow for some tropical development. However, none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation anywhere in the Atlantic over the coming week.
Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the disturbance over Florida.
One other area to watch is the region just north of Panama in the Southwest Caribbean. Wind shear values have dropped to 10 knots there this morning, and are forecast to remain low for several days.
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