India's shocking failure to provide hurricane warnings for Pakistan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:44 PM GMT on June 28, 2007

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A very serious failure occurred on the part of India's Meteorological Department (IMD) yesterday, when they failed to provide adequate warnings for a devastating tropical cyclone that hit Pakistan. Cyclone 03B, which struck the coast of Pakistan at 02 GMT June 27, has killed at least 17 and left 250,000 homeless in that nation, according to early news reports. Under mandate from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), India is responsible for warning the shores of all nations along the North Indian Ocean, including Pakistan. Cyclone 03B was at least a strong tropical storm when it hit Pakistan, and was probably a Category 1 hurricane. Microwave satellite imagery near the time of landfall (Figure 1) shows a well-developed tropical cyclone with spiral banding and a cloud free eye. Yet IMD never even gave the storm a name, and merely classified it as a a "deep depression," with winds less than tropical storm force (39 mph). At 00 GMT June 26, two hours before landfall, the position of Cyclone 03B given by IMD was probably in error by at least 60 miles. One hour later, at 01 GMT, with landfall just one hour away, the IMD shipping advisory said that landfall was still 12 hours away. The IMD website, with the warnings, was offline and not available for approximately twelve hours beginning with the landfall period. It's important not to judge IMD before all the facts are known, but I can't fathom any excuse that can account for what appears, at best, to be criminal incompetence. I hope the WMO fully investigates this complete failure of India's Meteorological Department to protect the lives and welfare of those living along the Pakistani coast. Much more information on this dismaying story is presented in today's View From the Surface blog, which I have used to construct this short summary.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Cyclone 03B at 0113 GMT June 26, 2007, about one hour before landfall. Note the cloud free eye and well-developed spiral banding, indicative of a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane.

Atlantic tropical update
Clouds and showers associated with a westward-moving tropical wave over the Bahamas, near the east coast of Florida, show no signs of organization. With wind shear at 20-30 knots, I'm not expecting any development of this disturbance. The next best chance of development in the Atlantic may be Monday, when a cold front will push off the U.S. East Coast. We'll have to watch the area between Florida and North Carolina when the remains of the front stall out over the Gulf Stream. Also, the area just north of Panama in the Southwest Caribbean needs to be watched beginning Saturday, when wind shear values are forecast to drop below 5 knots.

Jeff Masters

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693. PensacolaNative
1:52 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
WPBHurricane05
Did you ever get any answer on your question
"don't think this can be good if the CMC is correct. It looks like is the Canadian High comes down to ridge with the B/A High. Isn't that the situation we had in 2004?
Just Wondering....
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
691. WPBHurricane05
1:41 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
New blog.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
690. Boatofacar
1:38 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Jedkins..yes i understand that not everyone will get rain when the chances for an area are 60%, like yesterday,and just cause theres no rain at my house doesnt mean there no rain around, but the radar told the story...only a few fast moving showers over the whole of Lake County...accumulation with these were a trace..and Lake County is huge. Since Barry the most precip ive seen in a 1/2 inch and that was last week during a seabreeze storm. Ive been here a long time and this is one of the longest dry spells this area has seen..trust me i want it to rain...it just wont:)
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
689. Thundercloud01221991
1:33 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
It is sort of on Floater 4 not on purpose but there.
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
688. Patrap
1:30 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Interesting weather story here...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
686. Jedkins
1:28 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Posted By: BrandonC at 1:23 PM GMT on June 29, 2007.

I agree with Nash28 and thundercloud totally. Once normal florida daytime comes into play and some storms start firing I think it will look a little better organized. Plus if it holds and gets into that gulf stream you never know what will happen




I agree with that, it will be much easier to define the circulation center once convection rapidly develops with daytime heating.


I expect this to remain staionary untill the trough approaches sunday into monday. Untill then Expect a stuck low with some pots seeing locally very high rain amounts. Otherwise a general 1 to 2 inches for quite a few of us.
685. Patrap
1:26 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Only road this one has,,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
684. Thundercloud01221991
1:26 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Thanks

How often does the satellite update on Navy site I am using Link This one (10 min Page) so check soon
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
683. Patrap
1:26 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
As the post before says..a blip..then outta to sea,,the GFSx shows..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
681. BrandonC
1:23 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
I agree with Nash28 and thundercloud totally. Once normal florida daytime comes into play and some storms start firing I think it will look a little better organized. Plus if it holds and gets into that gulf stream you never know what will happen.
680. weathermanwannabe
1:22 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Question; If an invest is over land, can they dispence with the costs of flights (if it event gets that far) and just do it by boat and car? (Bass boats in the case of Lake Okechobee)...Just a thought....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8868
679. Jedkins
1:22 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Posted By: Boatofacar at 1:16 PM GMT on June 29, 2007.

Well at the risk of sounding like a broken record, we got not a drop of rain yesterday as i figured. Today seems a bit more promising, but i still think alot less than the 80% chance the NWS predicts...i say 30% for central Florida. With all that juicy air around it seems like a no brainer....but we are in bazzaro world or something..things are just not right!



Just cause your house didn't really get that much doesn't mean others haven't. Coverage of activity yesterday and the day before was about on target in most areas. But remember. Rain chance isn't 100% most of us got at least a quick thunderstorm yesterday. But not everyone.


I know how it feels, was in a doghnut here yesterday, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches alll round me less then 2 miles away. Yet only 0.02 feel here. Pretty lame.

Got a real good storm wednesday actually, just was a bit unlucky yesterday.
677. BrandonC
1:21 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
StormW I wish I had those type of connections!!LOL, It looks like slowly the Navy website is getting some better shots of the invest as time goes on too.
676. Thundercloud01221991
1:20 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
I wonder if they think that as the low moves to the East it and the convection does not move that the low will move right under the convection and then strengthen I think that this has the potential to affect the Carolinas or Bermuda. Also because this is over land some convection will fire due to daytime heating and then it will move over water and have another increase in convection overnight.

Don't write it off in the first half hour of it becoming an invest if no convection forms by Saturday morning then you can write it off. with this season do not be surprised if it does form
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
675. Jedkins
1:18 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 1:14 PM GMT on June 29, 2007.

Yes over land, watch near Panama JP that area is needs to really be watched, Jedkins, I wonder how the models will now handle the invest considering its on land.



Probably very crappy. They've already performed like crap as usual as to what will happen. GFS has done the best so far, the other models esspecially the NAMM have been way off.


We should still see real nice rains forming with the daytime heating for us in central Florida. Just not quite as much as we possibly could, theres potential for amazing amounts, but this low is withholding us from reaching our real potential out of this airmass. Keeping it mostly off the east coast.


674. nash28
1:17 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
It is also expected to emerge back over the gulf stream.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
673. Patrap
1:16 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
An invest can be declared ..as needed.The potential advises the invest sometimes...not location. Ive seen invest declared over land..even as they emerging off Africa.This invest is warranted.It exist because it meets the criteria.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
672. Boatofacar
1:16 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Well at the risk of sounding like a broken record, we got not a drop of rain yesterday as i figured. Today seems a bit more promising, but i still think alot less than the 80% chance the NWS predicts...i say 30% for central Florida. With all that juicy air around it seems like a no brainer....but we are in bazzaro world or something..things are just not right!
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
671. weathermanwannabe
1:15 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
If the low is the dark spot on the GOM water vapor image, then, yes, it is basically centered over Lake Okechobee...
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8868
670. Patrap
1:14 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Im not a met..even though I stayed in a FEMA trailer last night. SO ..IM sticking with the Official word as always. Im a hobbyist,not a met.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
669. sporteguy03
1:14 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Yes over land, watch near Panama JP that area is needs to really be watched, Jedkins, I wonder how the models will now handle the invest considering its on land.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5206
668. obsessedwweather
1:13 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Does the FLA, Bahama BLOB have a COC? I just got on so I haven't read anything. Will this affect my flight out of JAX FLA on the 4th?
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
667. Jedkins
1:12 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
I know its sounds weird. But I repeat, the center is over land.
666. Jedkins
1:10 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
I don't get it why is it an invest when its over land.

There is a broad center of low pressure over Florida with the opproximate center near lake Okeechobee. This thing is horribly disoraganized if you as me. Its keeping the highest lift and most widespread enhanced activity offshore. You'd think cyclonic flow would throw it all into the state. Well its not because this low is so weak.



This thing is no invest lol, must be a mistake, a 1015 mb low that doesn't even have enough spin to throw activity back onshore in cyclonic flow.


Hey if it is, it is, but I don't see why its an invest.
665. sporteguy03
1:08 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
JP,
Remember its all good and now Dr.Masters has a blog to write so it will be awesome that his something to write about.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5206
662. sporteguy03
1:07 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
No not really JP,
its almost on land and 1015MB thats way too high and its all in the ATL, nothing in FL really this will lower our rain chances again central FL. We need an open wave:)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5206
660. WPBHurricane05
1:06 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
They put the center just off shore of North Miami.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
659. Jedkins
1:05 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 1:00 PM GMT on June 29, 2007.

yup area in the bahamas has now been deemed 95L, hmmm intersting are they thinking possible organization when it gets out over the Atlantic

like Jedkins had said earlier the low has become better organized over south florida and I had heard from some meteorologists this morning that is was now a tropical low




Is it just me of has Florida been in an unlucky streak where low pressure areas always park their dry side over us and the wetside remains offshore. I mean com on. Home many times can this happen! lol




Good storms will still fire with daytime heating overland so rain will be good along the west coast, but if this low wasn't interfering, a lot more could fall cause it would just slwly sweep across the state.


Oh well. We'll still be getting plenty of rain. Not hitting out potential though.
658. Patrap
1:05 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
657. BrandonC
1:05 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
LOL, got it Patrap. It obviously was just called 95L due to the fact there are very little satellite images up on Navy website and no model runs out for it. Plus I figured someone on here would have spotted it eventually. Just happy I spotted it first cause I got the coveted gold star...
656. WPBHurricane05
1:04 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
95LINVEST.20kts-1015mb-263N-807W


Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
655. Patrap
1:04 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
The area is Broad ..with potential..but as the frame pic shows..the invest is a wide area..not just the Clouds off se Fla..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
652. Patrap
1:02 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Your a heavy now brandonC, Bada Bing..You likea Italian..Lets do lunch!..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
651. sporteguy03
1:02 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
JP,
Now the models will run and Dr.Masters will update this on his blog after he drinks some coffee
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5206
649. Jedkins
1:02 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
wtf why I don't I get a goldstar....



What is this madness?




lol
648. BrandonC
1:01 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Awwww I'll put that next to the other 1/2 star I recieved last year... Thanks Patrap.
646. Patrap
1:00 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
95L IS a Green Ball...nice pick-up BrandonC. A gold Star for YOU!

6
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127702
645. BrandonC
1:00 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
Glad to be of service to my humble master weather watchers...
644. nash28
12:59 PM GMT on June 29, 2007
I'll be damned!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.