Fourth warmest May on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:25 PM GMT on June 25, 2007

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The tropical Atlantic remains quiet. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. The best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until July 1, when a strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast.

The Middle East will see their second tropical cyclone of the month on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone 3B crossed India, killing at least 140, and re-formed in the Arabian Sea, and is poised to hit Iran or Pakistan tomorrow. The View From the Surface blog is following this storm. We may looking at hundreds of years since the last time the Middle East was hit by two tropical cyclones in the same month. Tropical Cyclone Gonu pounded Oman and Iran earlier this month.

Fourth Warmest May on record
May 2007 was the fourth warmest May for the globe on record, and the period January - May of 2007 was tied with 1998 for the warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global average temperature for May was +0.53�C (+0.95�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, May global temperatures were the warmest ever measured, the second straight month that has happened. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (ninth warmest on record), thanks to the cooling associated with the disappearance of the winter El Ni�o event. The global temperature record goes back 128 years.

May temperatures were particularly warm across Russia. Moscow recorded its highest May temperature since record keeping began 128 years ago--32.9�C (91.2�F). The heat forced Russia's energy administrator to restrict the use of non-residential energy for the first time in summer. In India, a heat wave during mid-May produced temperatures as high as 45-50�C (113-122�F) resulting in at least 128 fatalities. Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change blog has more on the India heat wave. Although record heat was more prevalent across the globe, Argentina experienced its coldest May in twenty years, and at least 23 fatalities were reported as a result of cold weather during the last week of May.

11th warmest May on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., May 2007 ranked as the 11th warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 20th warmest such period on record. Spring (March - May) was 5th warmest on record in the continental U.S. The past six months (Dec-May) were the driest on record for the Southeast U.S. Portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee are experiencing exceptional drought. However, the drought has eased some since late May over the Florida Peninsula.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for May 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for May was the third lowest on record, a modest recovery from the lowest ever sea ice coverage observed in April. Arctic sea ice coverage in May has declined by about 8% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for May, for the years 1979-2007. May 2007 had the third lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 8% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

I'll have a new blog on Tuesday.
Jeff Masters

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82. WPBHurricane05
10:52 AM EDT on June 25, 2007
Yes texascanecaster1 it is amazing that Earth just happened to be placed where it is and I'm sure I know the answer why.
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81. SavannahStorm
2:46 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
From Wikipedia:

Modern geologists consider the age of the Earth to be around 4.567 billion years (4.567109 years). This age represents a compromise between the interpretations of oldest-known terrestrial minerals small crystals of zircon from the Jack Hills of Western Australia and astronomers' and planetologists' determinations of the age of the solar system based in part on radiometric age dating of meteorite material and lunar samples.

Interpretation of radiometric age dating of zircons suggests that the Earth is at least 4.404 billion years old. Comparing the mass and luminosity of the Sun to the multitudes of other stars, it appears that the solar system cannot be much older than those rocks. Ca-Al-rich inclusions (inclusions rich in calcium and aluminium) the oldest known solid constituents within meteorites which are formed within the solar system are 4.567 billion years old, giving an age for the solar system and an upper limit for the age of the Earth. It is assumed that the accretion of the Earth began soon after the formation of the Ca-Al-rich inclusions and the meteorites. Because the exact accretion time of the Earth is not yet known, and the predictions from different accretion models vary from several millions up to about 100 million years, the exact age of the Earth is difficult to determine.

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80. texascanecaster1
2:46 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Sorry not an expert on geology. Somehowy they use processes to anyalize the age of the rocks. Then they take that data in cojunction with the age of many different types of rocks taken from many different places in the world, at many different depths, and combine it with data from all kinds of other process and the ages of fossilized oraganisms and they have used it to build the geologic time scale which gives a rough estimate of when the earth was thought to have formed. Yes I suppose it would be which is why they cannot use that on everything just younger rocks whose carbon life hasn't depleted. But to think that out of all the planets in the entire galaxy maybe other galaxys too, this one formed in exactly the right place, at the right time, the right way is amazing.
79. overwash12
2:46 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
hi eveyone, didnt global warming start at the end of the last ice age? how come the highest temps on record havent been broken in the last 10 years?
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78. WPBHurricane05
10:42 AM EDT on June 25, 2007
But couldn't carbon dating be altered if there is a sudden change in the Earths atmosphere like the Ice Age?
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77. sullivanweather
2:44 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
texascane, it isn't carbon dating. Carbons half-life is too short to be able to measure in the billions of years
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76. texascanecaster1
2:41 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Its called carbon dating.
75. WPBHurricane05
10:38 AM EDT on June 25, 2007
Yes we have proof its called the geologic time scale and everything research geolgy has done.

So we know the Earths age by the age of the rocks. So how do we know the age of the rocks?
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74. texascanecaster1
2:40 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
A: what are they talking about? That wave is waaaaaaaay to south for that. B: LOL gulf!!
73. texascanecaster1
2:39 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Let redo that

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
923 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-260215-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
923 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH, MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE
INTERIOR. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
IS ALSO A VERY SLIM CHANCE THAT SMALL HAIL TO PEA SIZE MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER TUESDAY AND INTO
THE NEXT WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF TROPICAL WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORM WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.
$$
71. texascanecaster1
2:36 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
I see them Thelmores. Yes we have proof its called the geologic time scale and everything research geolgy has done.
Miami hwo:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
923 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-260215-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
923 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH, MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE
INTERIOR. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
IS ALSO A VERY SLIM CHANCE THAT SMALL HAIL TO PEA SIZE MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER TUESDAY AND INTO
THE NEXT WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF TROPICAL WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORM WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.
$$
70. WPBHurricane05
10:36 AM EDT on June 25, 2007
But you don't have proof that the Earth is billions of years old.
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69. MisterPerfect
2:32 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
But do we actually have proof??

If you mean we haven't found God's shoebox with the actual time of creation of the universe and our planet....NO.

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68. thelmores
2:33 PM GMT on June 25, 2007



Looks like we have two lows heading towards the outer banks.....
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67. sullivanweather
2:26 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Streamtracker,

All figures were taken from NWS local forecast offices located at Pittsburgh, State College, Binghamton, Buffalo, Albany, Burlington, Upton, Taunton, Gray and Caribou.

Access local climate data, then F-6 data.

* Of note, although this is considered 'peliminary' data, it is very accurate and hardly gets changed.

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66. WPBHurricane05
10:31 AM EDT on June 25, 2007
But do we actually have proof??
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65. MisterPerfect
2:30 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
How do we actually know that the Earth is 4.6 billion years?

That's APPROXIMATE...and its held in belief of the USGA and NASA.

Of course the Bible says otherwise and we know all about the truth in those books...
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64. BoyntonBeach
2:30 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
MIAMI A good dose of rain and wind is on the way to South Florida this week, thanks to a tropical wave heading in from the Caribbean.

The National Weather Service forecasts showers, thunderstorms and 15-20-mph breezes will hit the area Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.


sun-sentinel.com
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63. WPBHurricane05
10:29 AM EDT on June 25, 2007
How do we actually know that the Earth is 4.6 billion years?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
61. streamtracker
2:25 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
sullivanweather how about a link to your data?

And what are the baseline periods for your data? The NCDC's is 1961 to 1990. Perhaps the baselines are different?
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60. MisterPerfect
2:05 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
How do we know the atmosphere was not more violent and harmful to life before our species arrived on the evolutionary timeline? Perhaps storms were stronger back then, we know volcanic activity was more active millions and millions of years ago. We have yet to experience a true Earth ice age, an event that has happened in 10% of Earth's approx. 4.6 billion year lifetime...(that's approx. 460 million years of glacial expansion and regression. We know now that Solar activity rises and falls about every 12 or so years, that's approx. 383.3 million years of intense peak solar activity Earth has seen in it's lifetime, some of those peak periods could have and probably were a lot more damaging to Earth's atmosphere than we've seen yet. Given the extimated age of the Sun and the Earth, anything is possible and to finally say one day, after 4.6+ BILLION years of orbit around our star, we come to the conclusion that less than 200 years of burning carbon is our planet's tribunal of penance?!? We might as well call this period of our existence the Atmospheric Inquisition. You build the pyre, I'll get the whale oil...

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59. texascanecaster1
2:21 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Small t wave
58. texascanecaster1
2:20 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
In the epac at least

57. texascanecaster1
2:17 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
You want action... you got it

54. texascanecaster1
2:15 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Thank you devermark and hello gulf. Lots of rain in houston. Storm rainfall totals: Link
53. sullivanweather
1:48 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Skewed data on the NCDC's temperature anomaly map??


Over here in the NY/PA/New England area the map above shows temperatures anomalies for the Month of May averaging around +3C.

Here's a list of temperature departures for climate reporting stations across the area for May.

Williamsport, PA : + 1.6C
Allentown, PA: + 1.6C
Philadelphia, PA: + 1.4C
Scranton, PA: + 0.7C
Pittsburgh, PA: + 2.1C (warmest in PA)

Buffalo, NY: + 1.2C
Rochester, NY: + 1.4C
Albany, NY: + 1.2C
Poughkeepsie, NY: + 1.4C
Binghamton, NY: + 1.4C
Syracuse, NY: + 0.8C
New York City, NY: + 1.4C
Islip, NY: + 0.8C

Hartford, CT: + 1.2C

Providence, R.I.: + 1.2C

Boston, MA: + 1.6C

Concord, NH: + 1.1C

Portland, ME: + 1.2C
Caribou, ME: - 0.7C
Bangor, ME: - 0.2C

Burlington, VT: + 0.1C
Montpelier, VT: + 0.1C



Just where are these 3C temperature departures??

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52. groundman
2:14 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 2:12 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.
".. true darling.. there may not be any storms... and the blogs are relatively quiet today...

but we'll always have global warming... to debate..."


And we will always have GulfScotsman to show us how silly we always are, scientific or not!! LOL

GOOD ONE, excellent, bravo Gulf. Take a bow!!LOL
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51. DenverMark
2:14 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
We need some action in the tropics LOL!!

Have a great day everyone :)
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49. DenverMark
2:07 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Agreed, I was just mentioning the political reality, but don't wish to get into politics in general.
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48. weatherwiszer
2:09 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
The problem with a good part of the community is the fact that theory is only that until it is proven without a doubt. Problem with that thinking is if GW is proven it will too late to do much about it. Will the planet carry on, Yes
will human society suffer, Yes. Excuse me, but I by insurance just in case of accident. Why not err in the side of possibility also.
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46. DenverMark
2:03 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Texas,
You hit the nail on the head...we can't just stop using fossil fuels now. The world economy would collapse and millions (billions) of people would starve to death, plain and simple.
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45. texascanecaster1
2:04 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Also i will not debate anything that has political and global warming in the same sentence. I want nothing to do with that stuff.
44. texascanecaster1
1:57 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Devermark. We all know global warming is happening. What most people don't get is that modern society and all of the 1st world countries in the world are the way they afre because of their economies. And what are their economies based on... Fossil fuels. Until we can produce enough electricty, which is what I see as the only truely renewable viable alternitive energy soruce, from natraul sorces instead of fossil fuels and coal, we cannot just stop using oil and gas. Even if we stopped now global warming would not stop unless you could remove hydrocarbons from the atmosphere. Fourtunatley we now know how to do that but it won't make a difference until we stop readding them.
43. DenverMark
1:56 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
That brings up the whole point of MMGW being the "Politically Correct" view to have these days, with scientists who oppose it being ridiculed or not getting funding, etc. I feel the politicians are using it as the latest "crisis" to get us to accept more laws and regulations, as those in power always want more power and control over the average person. The news media sensationalize the issue, just as they have with so many others in the past. And when Hollywood jumps on the bandwagon, it's nauseating!!
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42. MisterPerfect
1:56 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Someone give KRL a lolly pop or a cookie or something. You said it best right there. Earth being threatened by GW is, like you say, quite a stretch of presumption, if not perfectly egotistical of man.
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41. texascanecaster1
1:57 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
epac stuff: 000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250330
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT SUN JUN 24 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
40. KRL
1:34 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
I'm split on global warming being caused primarily by us. Surely humans are an extremely negative factor in the environmental equation, but are a mere 6 Billion of us really able to have that much of an impact to completely alter the climate?

The land surface of the earth is 57.5 Million square miles. The water surface is 139.4 Million square miles for a total of approx 197 Million sqare miles of surface area alone and then multiply that by the atmosphere's volume and you're in the billions of space.

And from this NASA world population density map you can see there is really quite a bit of open space still.

earth

Mother Nature also has quite remarkable ways to keep everything in balance and obviously has done a good job since the planet is still here after billions of years and still quite habitable after everything Earth has endured in that time frame.

When you really look at the size of us to the size of the earth it's like looking down at colonies of ants. We're really not that big in relation to the whole planet and our time here since civilization, population and heavy industrialization began which is pretty much the past 150 years is not even a blip of a second in the perspective of Earth's 5 Billion year age.

So to assume in 150 years of industrial pollution we've thrashed the entire environment is at best quite a stretch of presumption.



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39. MisterPerfect
1:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Everything has an opposite reaction. A waste product if you will. From stars forming and dying to our lungs taking in oxygen and releasing co2, how can we possibly disrupt nature's way to better suit our idealology?
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38. DenverMark
1:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
I'd agree with that...even if GW theory is wrong, pollution is just bad, and burning dirty coal to generate power produces a lot of pollution, especially in places like China!!
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37. Patrap
8:53 AM CDT on June 25, 2007
2
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36. texascanecaster1
1:50 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Morning all! Not much goign in the tropics. Also NWS website completley crashed once again. I may need to make a blog about all of the noaa website crashes that have happened this year. It is just ridiculous that this keeps happening. I have some work I have to do day so I will be in and out.
35. MisterPerfect
1:49 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
True DenverMark, but then the debate will flip-flop and supporters for MMGW will argue that a cooling period is abnormal and Man is the reason for dangerous, irreversable global cooling...
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34. 900MB
1:42 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
As George Carlin once said in regards to global warming: "The planet will be just fine, it repairs itself, it's us that are f***ed!
No matter what side that you are on, one thing is undeniable..pollution is bad, it kills us. If all the global warming people are wrong, and the trend reverses itself, what's the worst that happens, we have a cleaner planet.
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33. DenverMark
1:45 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
At any rate, I'll be real interested to see what happens in the next 10-20 years. If GW slows or reverses slightly (as in the 1940-1975 period), I think that would disprove GW theory with regards to human activity adding CO2.
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32. DenverMark
1:37 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Good points...I think the Earth does have a way of compensating for man-made effects such as adding CO2 and other "greenhouse gases" to the atmosphere, and we may be in for some surprises, not all bad. On the other hand, I think that while people in general are increasingly aware that we have a problem, realistically it's going to take about another 50 years before fossil fuel use is greatly reduced. If we are tipping the balance, things may get pretty nasty.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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