Fourth warmest May on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:25 PM GMT on June 25, 2007

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The tropical Atlantic remains quiet. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. The best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until July 1, when a strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast.

The Middle East will see their second tropical cyclone of the month on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone 3B crossed India, killing at least 140, and re-formed in the Arabian Sea, and is poised to hit Iran or Pakistan tomorrow. The View From the Surface blog is following this storm. We may looking at hundreds of years since the last time the Middle East was hit by two tropical cyclones in the same month. Tropical Cyclone Gonu pounded Oman and Iran earlier this month.

Fourth Warmest May on record
May 2007 was the fourth warmest May for the globe on record, and the period January - May of 2007 was tied with 1998 for the warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global average temperature for May was +0.53�C (+0.95�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, May global temperatures were the warmest ever measured, the second straight month that has happened. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (ninth warmest on record), thanks to the cooling associated with the disappearance of the winter El Ni�o event. The global temperature record goes back 128 years.

May temperatures were particularly warm across Russia. Moscow recorded its highest May temperature since record keeping began 128 years ago--32.9�C (91.2�F). The heat forced Russia's energy administrator to restrict the use of non-residential energy for the first time in summer. In India, a heat wave during mid-May produced temperatures as high as 45-50�C (113-122�F) resulting in at least 128 fatalities. Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change blog has more on the India heat wave. Although record heat was more prevalent across the globe, Argentina experienced its coldest May in twenty years, and at least 23 fatalities were reported as a result of cold weather during the last week of May.

11th warmest May on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., May 2007 ranked as the 11th warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 20th warmest such period on record. Spring (March - May) was 5th warmest on record in the continental U.S. The past six months (Dec-May) were the driest on record for the Southeast U.S. Portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee are experiencing exceptional drought. However, the drought has eased some since late May over the Florida Peninsula.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for May 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for May was the third lowest on record, a modest recovery from the lowest ever sea ice coverage observed in April. Arctic sea ice coverage in May has declined by about 8% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for May, for the years 1979-2007. May 2007 had the third lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 8% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

I'll have a new blog on Tuesday.
Jeff Masters

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132. MisterPerfect
4:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Welp, there's a little T-Storm crawling across South Miami...is that considered a blob? lol
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131. Thundercloud01221991
4:48 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Severe Thunderstorm watch in Canada I hope that they do not get hit hard again
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130. kmanislander
4:37 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Hi all

I do not know if anyone has posted this yet but the GHCC site is back up !. Now all we need is something to look at LOL
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129. scharkalvin
4:34 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
However, believeing that the Earth's atmosphere and all of the World's ice are threatened by less than 200 years of "burning things", when things have been burning well before we arrived ( Remember, on a Thursday ) is equally preposterous.

Well it "only" took us 200 years to burn up about half of all the fossil fuels that required some 100 MILLION years create. That's 50 million years worth of CO2 released in 200 years.
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128. obsessedwweather
4:27 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Thanks Texas. We need big rain still here in FLA.
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127. nash28
4:30 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Hey Jed. Wouldn't be surprised if the 2pm NWS discussion basically kept our chances still around 20%. I will give you this though.... There is PLENTY of instability and heating to spawn some hefty storms. Let's hope we can get them.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
125. nash28
4:26 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Been away for a while. Are we still discussing the GW thing???

Man, we need a blob SOMEWHERE!!!!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
124. Jedkins
4:26 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
today looks verrrry interesting for us today. There weren't even supposed to be storms inland or on the east side of the state and strong stroms are already rapidly developing.


Looks like the very unstabile profiles are winning out over the dry today, could get VERY active on this side of the state, they may have to bump rain chances way up.


I can't be sure of this, but I will closely monitor this developing situation, because if the dry air is overcome by atmospheric instability, things could get really wild here later.

dry air aloft can actually aid in strong thunderstorms once they actually get established because the strong updrafts overpower the dry air and the dry air cuases rapid sinking of winds aloft which can mean severe downdrafts.


I hope today gets active, getting some good storms instead of dry air would be nice and unexpected.

However, severe potentional looks possibly dangerous today if things do get kicking.

They weren't originally expected to. So I'm not jumping on this just yet. I'll wait and see what the NWS has to say in their 2:00 PM discussion before I will take sides on how today will unfold.
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121. Jedkins
4:21 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
well I think it still is a t-wave, just maybe its very weak at this time and it won't start to gain steam till tomorrow
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120. obsessedwweather
4:17 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Hey all. Just joined. Is there something, perhaps, happening in the GOM?
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119. Patrap
11:14 AM CDT on June 25, 2007
Tropical Cyclone 03-B Link
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118. Gatorxgrrrl
4:12 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
That one loaded just fine.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15599
115. Gatorxgrrrl
4:07 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
WPB - when I clicked on your link...it would not load...could not see the graphic. (good morning btw:)
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15599
114. Jedkins
3:57 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
tropical waves are troughs of low pressure, they create a swath of dry air and subsidence ahead of them followed by massive amounts of moisture along it, showers and thunderstorms that develop in this are aided by convergance and energy, how much energy and convergance these waves have all dependends on how strong these are, and of course, the stronger the wave, the more shower and thunderstorm activity.


Behind the tropical wave is a rich tropical airmass that allows continuation of numerous showers and storms over landmnasses and sometimes water if there is convergance left behind as well.



Tropical waves are in a sense, the the tropics versions of fronts, and instead of a thin swath of moisture and storms ahead of it and prolonged dry air behind it like a miud lattitude front.

Tropical waves have thin swath of dry air ahead of them followed by a prolonged rich tropical airmass behind it.
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113. Inyo
4:04 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Also, the latest ENSO advisory is out for this week. There was a slight cooling in the ENSO area but compared to the warming of last week, pretty unimpressive. I don't see any signs that La Nina will blow up soon, I think it will remain neutral for now.
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112. Inyo
3:47 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Posted By: nash28 at 12:39 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.
Well, I have a problem saying that man is responsible for destroying the planet. I mean, how vain can we get to believe that the earth cannot and will not heal itself.


exactly, it will heal itself, unfortunately for humans, it may very well include a human population crash. Then, in 100,000 years, an insignificant amount of time globally, everything will be back to normal. We'll be dead or somewhere else, probably.
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109. Jedkins
3:28 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
I believe so, sometimes you have to rememember the air aloft is very dry further out, as the the upper ridge breaks down and the Bermuda high takes control, the tropical wave will be more noticable right as it moves over Florida.



If you watch the GFS model, you don't really see the tropical wave very well either on it untill tomorrow and most notably wednesday as it moves over Florida.
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106. thisisfurious
3:17 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
That emerging EPAC system is certainly wrapping around itself and looking pretty mighty in the WV loop WPB just linked up....
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105. Jedkins
3:15 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
They are the experts, they know what they are talking about, if you don't see what they are coming from at all, that means you lack in weather experence and knowledge, or you just didn't look hard enough.


It seems like there are always people in here that on puposely try be extreme, its as if they won't more fighting to start.


There IS a tropical wave that will be heading across Florida wednesday.

Whether you it or not now, you'll see it once it arrives! LOL
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103. MisterPerfect
3:02 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
The "Age of the Solar System" debate is older than the "Human Increased Global Warming" debate...

NASA, USGS, and other agencies compare and contrast rocks and sediment from our planet, the Moon, meteroites, and soon Mars to establish a timespan in Earth years of the age of the solar system.

Creationists will argue that the Earth, Sun, Stars, Gallaxies are all 10,000 years or less. That means the Sun formed on a Sunday and Dinosaurs popped up on Tuesday and we came around to see what was up on Thursday morning...


As you can, or should plainly understand, the Global Warming debate is a little less ridiculous. However, believeing that the Earth's atmosphere and all of the World's ice are threatened by less than 200 years of "burning things", when things have been burning well before we arrived ( Remember, on a Thursday ) is equally preposterous.
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102. thisisfurious
3:15 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
TaxasCane - I believe that info might help with the confusing weather report.

There is a small tropical wave, though its not very clear or well defined.
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101. thisisfurious
3:07 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
referring to the tropical wave that is bringing moisture to s. florida this week ---


It is NOT the wave way down by the windward islands - it is hard-to-see wimpy tropical wave coming in from just east of the Bahamas, ya dig?

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100. WPBHurricane05
11:11 AM EDT on June 25, 2007
Back to the tropics. It looks like there is an ULL about to move over the Bahamas. I expect Wednesday will be wet. Link
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98. Jedkins
3:06 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
lets all chill out now and have fun, debate is over! There is nothing to debate about the age of the earth! My simple statements should help you!


Lets all go to Clearwater beach down here where I live and play some football and volley ball and and have some drinks lol, ya know, chill out!
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94. Jedkins
3:04 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 3:02 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.

"...the problem with Carbon 14 dating is she is just too young... "




LOLOLOLOL
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93. Jedkins
3:00 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
And sorry, whether you want to believe in God or not and whether you believe he created everything or not is between you and God, but its the truth and nothing but the truth.


A kid can hide his head from the the doctor and say hes not getting a shot, but hes still gonna get a shot cause thats the fact. Weather you believe something or not, it won't change reality. This isn't mans fantasy world.
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90. MisterPerfect
2:57 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Age of the Earth Debate:

USGS

Link

Link

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86. Jedkins
2:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Alright this ends it right here, how do we prove how old the earth is?


We can't! Man is stuck up on himself and won't admit we cant, there will be severe inaccuracy in trying to do so.


Now even for those of Christians like me, even the Bible won't give direct evidence to how old it is.

Some people say its only 8000 years old based on the Bible.

But in Genesis it says "the earth was found formless and void thats before it goes onto say when he brought life to the planet. So when man comes into the picture, the earth is about 8000 years old, but that suggests it could be much older.


Thats the best evidence we have, all other ways of ATTEMPTING to date how old the earth is is just foolishness and prideful.


Now based on whaty I said, its all possible the earth is billions of years old.


But the problem is we really don't know, maybe we aren't supposed to know, maybe that will remain a scret to God.


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82. WPBHurricane05
10:52 AM EDT on June 25, 2007
Yes texascanecaster1 it is amazing that Earth just happened to be placed where it is and I'm sure I know the answer why.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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