Fourth warmest May on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:25 PM GMT on June 25, 2007

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The tropical Atlantic remains quiet. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. The best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until July 1, when a strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast.

The Middle East will see their second tropical cyclone of the month on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone 3B crossed India, killing at least 140, and re-formed in the Arabian Sea, and is poised to hit Iran or Pakistan tomorrow. The View From the Surface blog is following this storm. We may looking at hundreds of years since the last time the Middle East was hit by two tropical cyclones in the same month. Tropical Cyclone Gonu pounded Oman and Iran earlier this month.

Fourth Warmest May on record
May 2007 was the fourth warmest May for the globe on record, and the period January - May of 2007 was tied with 1998 for the warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global average temperature for May was +0.53�C (+0.95�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, May global temperatures were the warmest ever measured, the second straight month that has happened. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (ninth warmest on record), thanks to the cooling associated with the disappearance of the winter El Ni�o event. The global temperature record goes back 128 years.

May temperatures were particularly warm across Russia. Moscow recorded its highest May temperature since record keeping began 128 years ago--32.9�C (91.2�F). The heat forced Russia's energy administrator to restrict the use of non-residential energy for the first time in summer. In India, a heat wave during mid-May produced temperatures as high as 45-50�C (113-122�F) resulting in at least 128 fatalities. Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change blog has more on the India heat wave. Although record heat was more prevalent across the globe, Argentina experienced its coldest May in twenty years, and at least 23 fatalities were reported as a result of cold weather during the last week of May.

11th warmest May on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., May 2007 ranked as the 11th warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 20th warmest such period on record. Spring (March - May) was 5th warmest on record in the continental U.S. The past six months (Dec-May) were the driest on record for the Southeast U.S. Portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee are experiencing exceptional drought. However, the drought has eased some since late May over the Florida Peninsula.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for May 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for May was the third lowest on record, a modest recovery from the lowest ever sea ice coverage observed in April. Arctic sea ice coverage in May has declined by about 8% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for May, for the years 1979-2007. May 2007 had the third lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 8% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

I'll have a new blog on Tuesday.
Jeff Masters

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182. Gatorxgrrrl
5:42 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
No good blobs to watch ...huh?
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15599
181. Gatorxgrrrl
5:41 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Now that I think of it....I lived in close to Boynton Beach for about three years, use to shop at the Boynton Beach Mall...moved 11 times in 10 years.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15599
180. nash28
5:41 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Yeah Gator. Wishing very hard for a good soaker. It is blistering hot!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
179. Gatorxgrrrl
5:40 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Hi Nash - wishing for rain? lol...it rained like you know what in Lakeland this weekend...Friday night.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15599
178. Gatorxgrrrl
5:39 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Hi BB! How are you doing? and how is your dog doing?
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15599
177. nash28
5:39 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Hey Gator! Good to see you.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
176. nash28
5:38 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
No comment.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
175. BoyntonBeach
5:38 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Hi Gatorxgrrrl !
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174. Gatorxgrrrl
5:37 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Yeah near brooksville? Use to live in Inverness for a short period of time. Citrus county
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15599
173. thisisfurious
5:37 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
What is with the 5 or so people that continuously try to get people to come to their blog but just keep on yapping on this one? If your blog is such a dandy, then you might be better off spending some time over there. At least quit talking about it so much here. If its great, people will go there and stay there. If not - no biggie, but take your popularity campaign off this main blog, please.


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172. Jedkins
5:36 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Actually more northeast of me, I'm on the west side of the state near the coast, north pinnelas county.

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171. Gatorxgrrrl
5:30 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Line of rain right up the center of the state, north of you jed I think.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15599
170. Jedkins
5:25 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Its 92 with a heat index of 101 here, getting hot quick, temps headed for the mid 90's today.
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169. Melagoo
5:24 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
It is getting very humid now
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168. MisterPerfect
5:23 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Busted Whistle Manitoba or something.


ROFL! Funny Stuff. I know right? Where is all the data from deep inside the Brazilan rainforest? Is it hotter there today than 28 years ago when record keeping began?
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166. Thundercloud01221991
5:25 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
There is no religion talk in my blog just click my name
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165. Thundercloud01221991
5:23 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
oh
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164. hurrycain
5:18 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
thundercloud....

A bad attempt apparently to re-focus the earth's age conversation into a weather related question....which you wanted... by using your name.

Crickets are chirping as I exit stage left.
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163. MisterPerfect
5:22 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Trust me, the humidity is rising in Miami. No way it can be 55% at this hour...feels more like 90+ F, 86% Humid.
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162. nash28
5:20 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Yeah MP I know. Getting a little old seeing every other topic about temp changes somewhere in Busted Whistle Manitoba or something.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
159. MisterPerfect
5:16 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Nash, you wouldn't see much GW banter if every 2 out 4 topics on Dr. M's blog weren't about record high monthly/seasonal/annual temperatures and the good old "polar ice report"...
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158. hurricane23
1:13 PM EDT on June 25, 2007
Let the parade of cold-fronts continue.

LATER IN THE WEEK A VERY
LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
AND OUR STEERING FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ONCE AGAIN SO IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE EAST COAST WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR
CONVECTION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

As for the TW set to move into south florida it actually looks it will stay to our south but the northern end of it may clip us and bring some scattered activity to south florida.


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
157. Thundercloud01221991
5:16 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Posted By: hurrycain at 5:13 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.
Your right thundercloud.....how long does it take to create a thundercloud?


What do you mean
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156. Melagoo
5:15 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
geeze our temps are slightly higher then Miami ...

90.7 F / 32 C
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 22%
Dew Point: 48 F / 9 C
Wind: 3.6 mph / 5 km/h
Wind Gust: 6.3 mph / 10 km/h
Pressure: 30.15 in / 1020.9 hPa (Steady)
Heat Index: 87 F / 31 C
Visibility: 15.0 miles / 24.1 kilometers
UV: 11 out of 16
Clouds: Few 4000 ft / 1219 m
Few 24000 ft / 7315 m
(Above Ground Level)

VFR (CYHM)
Wind Speed: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h / 0.0 m/s
Wind Dir: 222 (SW)
Ceiling: Unlimited
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155. MisterPerfect
5:10 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
I think that we have to pass a new amendment to the constitution

Separation of Church and Meteorology


That sounds like a capital idea! Thunderstorms already have the right to bear arms.

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153. hurrycain
5:09 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Your right thundercloud.....how long does it take to create a thundercloud?
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151. nash28
5:10 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Yeah, I say enough GW banter.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
150. Jedkins
5:03 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
the gulf isn't producing dry air Nash, its the upper ridge, the gulf is full of warm water which is the source of deep mositure, however the high has supressed that to the ver surface keeping thunderstorm axtivity low.

Surface moisture has remained deep for a while, its the upper atmosphere that has been dry, preventing thunderstorm growth.


Todat the air is drier from a notheast flow, however, lots of storms on th east coast seabreeze will bring deep moisture and possibly strong thunderstorms to are area here later today.


The reason it is so dry today is because we don't have a flow off the gulf and the upper ridge has sunk drier air to the surface inland which has blown drier air into the bay area today.


As I said though, the dry air looks like it will be squashed as the east coast seabreeze and convection along it moves in later.

As long as the east coast seabreeze makes it across and collides with the west coast seabreeze, storms should pop around the area. Once again, dry air aloft and subsidence from the upper ridge will limit cverage.


Storms which pop will likely become quite strong though.
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149. Thundercloud01221991
5:07 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
I think that we have to pass a new amendment to the constitution

Separation of Church and Meteorology
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148. nash28
5:04 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Yeah JP. Plenty of instability for y'all as well. Your seabreeze is kicking in and you're getting good pop. Our coast on the other hand is patiently waiting for a couple of slow moving boomers.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
147. MisterPerfect
5:00 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Hurrycain, I think you have it wrong. We're talking about God here. It only takes one day to make a billion trillion stars, another day to sculpt dinosaurs, another day to destroy 95% of life you created yesterday, and only one day to create man as we look today. Sarcasm never sounded so religious....
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145. pottery2
12:58 PM AST on June 25, 2007
Good day. Not much going on. The wave at 60 west is providing cloud and occasional rain, with heavier stuff anticipated later today. Trinidad press. 1017, will see if this falls this afternoon. Seems that the combination of SAL and Shear ( those 2 babes ) are doing a job around here.
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144. nash28
5:01 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Those storms over Lake and Orange counties are expected to weaken and crap out as they move SWWD. Hopefully, a new batch will pop this afternoon in our area. I've had just about enough of the freakin' dry air coming off the Gulf!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
143. Jedkins
4:55 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
We got a real good thunderstorm here friday, Tampa had 2.96 inches of rain, I had 2.23 at my house, amazing non-stop classic Florida lightning as well.

Heck and rain chances were only 20% that day, those were some strong storms that day too, hopefully we will do it over again today. Would love to see rain before the expected rains move in wednesday.

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142. hurrycain
4:43 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Question....how old are the overseas limestone cliffs which tower 1000' high. They are layered due to the sedimetary process from organic remains and take tens/hundreds of thousands of years to form each layer on the ocean floor.

You would go well over 50,000 years of age after the first few layers.

The age approximation is not completed by any carbon 14 test....but by common sense.

Not to mention the continental theory....Hawaii for instance. The "hot spot" which created the chain of islands has not moved, but the land mass has. This hot spot has created many of the islands, and is still forming a new land mass just under the ocean water level...away from the last visible island. This could not have happened in the amount of time any bible scholar will use as their estimated creation timeline.



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141. Thundercloud01221991
4:54 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
I took this picture a few days ago in Rochester, NY

The first Picture is mine

Here is the image in just wunderground image selection(use to vote)
Link
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139. nash28
4:58 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
I live on the south shore of Tampa Bay.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
136. MisterPerfect
4:56 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
If I could blow them up to your neck of the woods, Nash, I would...
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135. MisterPerfect
4:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Well it "only" took us 200 years to burn up about half of all the fossil fuels that required some 100 MILLION years create. That's 50 million years worth of CO2 released in 200 years.

REally? Are you sure we've searched every square inch of the Earth yet? Those carbon organisms that have formed into our fossil fuels didn't emit more or less CO2 well beyond 100 Million years ago? How do we know?
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134. nash28
4:54 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Send them to Tampa. Mother Nature has been screwing us. The east coast and Miami area has had their fair share of rain. Kick it to us Pele!
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
133. Jedkins
4:51 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Posted By: nash28 at 4:32 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.

Hey Jed. Wouldn't be surprised if the 2pm NWS discussion basically kept our chances still around 20%. I will give you this though.... There is PLENTY of instability and heating to spawn some hefty storms. Let's hope we can get them.



Ya they always are very conservative with rain chances.

LI is -8 and cape is around 4500, so instability is very high, and some real intense stotms could pop.

Esspecially with temps in the 93 to 96 degree range today, possibly warmer in some pots.
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132. MisterPerfect
4:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Welp, there's a little T-Storm crawling across South Miami...is that considered a blob? lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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