Fourth warmest May on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:25 PM GMT on June 25, 2007

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The tropical Atlantic remains quiet. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. The best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until July 1, when a strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast.

The Middle East will see their second tropical cyclone of the month on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone 3B crossed India, killing at least 140, and re-formed in the Arabian Sea, and is poised to hit Iran or Pakistan tomorrow. The View From the Surface blog is following this storm. We may looking at hundreds of years since the last time the Middle East was hit by two tropical cyclones in the same month. Tropical Cyclone Gonu pounded Oman and Iran earlier this month.

Fourth Warmest May on record
May 2007 was the fourth warmest May for the globe on record, and the period January - May of 2007 was tied with 1998 for the warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global average temperature for May was +0.53�C (+0.95�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, May global temperatures were the warmest ever measured, the second straight month that has happened. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (ninth warmest on record), thanks to the cooling associated with the disappearance of the winter El Ni�o event. The global temperature record goes back 128 years.

May temperatures were particularly warm across Russia. Moscow recorded its highest May temperature since record keeping began 128 years ago--32.9�C (91.2�F). The heat forced Russia's energy administrator to restrict the use of non-residential energy for the first time in summer. In India, a heat wave during mid-May produced temperatures as high as 45-50�C (113-122�F) resulting in at least 128 fatalities. Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change blog has more on the India heat wave. Although record heat was more prevalent across the globe, Argentina experienced its coldest May in twenty years, and at least 23 fatalities were reported as a result of cold weather during the last week of May.

11th warmest May on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., May 2007 ranked as the 11th warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 20th warmest such period on record. Spring (March - May) was 5th warmest on record in the continental U.S. The past six months (Dec-May) were the driest on record for the Southeast U.S. Portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee are experiencing exceptional drought. However, the drought has eased some since late May over the Florida Peninsula.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for May 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for May was the third lowest on record, a modest recovery from the lowest ever sea ice coverage observed in April. Arctic sea ice coverage in May has declined by about 8% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for May, for the years 1979-2007. May 2007 had the third lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 8% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

I'll have a new blog on Tuesday.
Jeff Masters

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231. nash28
6:22 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
The setup isn't quite there as of yet for any development in the GOMEX.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
230. MisterPerfect
6:21 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
1989 was also pretty active with the most destructive hurricane until Andrew.

Which one was that, Hugo?
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20123
229. Thunderstorm2
2:19 PM EDT on June 25, 2007
Are we sure that there's nothing forming in the GOM?

Nothing is going to form untill conditions become favourable
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227. Jedkins
6:20 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Nothing will form in the gulf, very unfavorable.
226. obsessedwweather
6:16 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
OK-

Are we sure that there's nothing forming in the GOM?
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
225. Jedkins
6:16 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Air high aloft is moist from the shortwave over the easter gulf, once the storms get going they can tap that. But what you don't see is very dry air at the mid levels over Florida, something you won't notice at ground level, or water vapor sattelite.
224. weatherboykris
6:16 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Just in for a minute guys,but I feel that it should be noted that June has been near normal across most of the globe,and this could be our first month in a long,long,time that is near normal globally.

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222. Thunderstorm2
2:13 PM EDT on June 25, 2007
Any Links to other TROPICAL WEATHER RELATED sites are allowed.

Anything else will get you banned..Evil Aarons Rules.
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219. Gatorxgrrrl
6:12 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
TC- I may start doing it on my blog....I don't think I should do it in Dr. Masters blog even if its science related, especially when the tropics decide to dance.
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216. Patrap
1:06 PM CDT on June 25, 2007
GOM WV loop Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
214. Gatorxgrrrl
6:05 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Yes I posted the physics quiz (clarifying...I am NOT a physics professor)

I just posted the questions as a fun thing on Tuesdays so we could all learn more about science.
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213. Gatorxgrrrl
6:04 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Adrian probably has permission. He is a regular here at WU all year round, not just during the tropical season and is one of Dr. Master's very loyal supporters.
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209. Gatorxgrrrl
6:02 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Adrians site is related to tropical weather. He has a very good site with great links. Its all ok...gotta run now for real!
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207. Jedkins
6:01 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Posted By: ClearH2OFla at 5:59 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.

Jedkins anything we need to worry about


To worry about as far as what? Tropics or thunderstorms?
206. Thundercloud01221991
6:00 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
They call it spam here on Dr. Masters blog see here:

Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.
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204. ClearH2OFla
1:58 PM EDT on June 25, 2007
Jedkins anything we need to worry about
202. Gatorxgrrrl
5:57 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Bye everyone, thanks for the info...Nash talk to ya later!

Jed your not in Brooksville?
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201. Jedkins
5:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Posted By: Gatorxgrrrl at 5:38 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.

Yeah near brooksville? Use to live in Inverness for a short period of time. Citrus county



Pinellas county is where clearwater and St. Pete are, pinellas county is a mini peninsula, with the bay on its right, and the gulf on the left.


Now Gator you know where I am LOL I live oon the north side of the county.
199. Gatorxgrrrl
5:56 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Thanks STL...btw my older daughter is going to St. Louis this weekend to visit a friend...her first time there.
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198. Thundercloud01221991
5:54 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Here is the surface map for that day look at Kansas City then look at SE Iowa and note the temp diff that is one strong cold front!

Forgot the picture



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195. Gatorxgrrrl
5:52 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
No problem Boynton, I was out of town this weekend, so my blog was probably missing:)
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194. nash28
5:49 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
July will have more activity for us to keep our eyes on. The pattern hasn't locked in place yet, so it is still unclear as to whether we will have a weaker A/B High that is positioned more to the SW, or if we will see a stronger high parked further to the east like we had last year.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
193. Gatorxgrrrl
5:48 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Question for an expert or semi expert....do tornadoes occur in cooler climates?...that question is prompted by the post that crownweather just made. For some reason, I did not think so.
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192. BoyntonBeach
5:47 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Oops ! I didnt see your blog in the main list the other day, but I found it now that I clicked on your name..
Member Since: July 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
191. aquak9
1:46 PM EDT on June 25, 2007
crownweather! so very good to see you here. I still visit your site and read your tropical discussions. A pleasure to have you visit us.

Adrian...I sure hope you're right. You often are.

Hi Gator!
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190. Gatorxgrrrl
5:46 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Yeah Nash - it is July that I am worried about, with the GOM already like a warm bath.
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189. Gatorxgrrrl
5:45 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Molly is WSI's dog...she is doing good though as far as I know...my dog is Cocoa. Nash's dog is Peanut...lol

Hi Aqua!
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188. crownwx
1:43 PM EDT on June 25, 2007
Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook puts my area (Northern Maine) in a slight risk for severe t-storms with this discussion:

...NRN NEW ENGLAND...
MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO AOA 1000 J/KG OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IN MOISTENING WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SE FROM QUEBEC. AS THIS OCCURS...MID LEVEL NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOA 50 KTS AS REGION IS GLANCED BY DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING SE TOWARD THE MARITIMES. GIVEN FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL AND NRN ME.

DEEP VEERING WIND PROFILES AND FAIRLY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 10C AT 500 MB/ SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS MAY TEND TO REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE...AND COULD POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO SVR WIND AND HAIL.
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187. hurricane23
1:46 PM EDT on June 25, 2007
The trofs of low pressure just keep coming with another significant one set to move into the southeast in the coming days.If the tropical wave stays to far south we may get another shot at rain as our steering flow veers to the sw and brings us rain across south florida.

Also i'll be getting my own copy of Hurrtrak in the next 2-3 days so iam real excited about useing that this year.Adrian
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186. BoyntonBeach
5:41 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
She doing well in the new place, thank you for asking. How is Molly ?
Member Since: July 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
185. aquak9
1:43 PM EDT on June 25, 2007
I think we ALL want rain in Florida. The never-ending beg...
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184. nash28
5:43 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
No real action right now in the tropics. Probably won't have much until July rolls around.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
183. Melagoo
5:41 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
we are suppose to go up to 40 C humdex today
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182. Gatorxgrrrl
5:42 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
No good blobs to watch ...huh?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.