Fourth warmest May on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:25 PM GMT on June 25, 2007

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The tropical Atlantic remains quiet. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. The best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until July 1, when a strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast.

The Middle East will see their second tropical cyclone of the month on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone 3B crossed India, killing at least 140, and re-formed in the Arabian Sea, and is poised to hit Iran or Pakistan tomorrow. The View From the Surface blog is following this storm. We may looking at hundreds of years since the last time the Middle East was hit by two tropical cyclones in the same month. Tropical Cyclone Gonu pounded Oman and Iran earlier this month.

Fourth Warmest May on record
May 2007 was the fourth warmest May for the globe on record, and the period January - May of 2007 was tied with 1998 for the warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global average temperature for May was +0.53�C (+0.95�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, May global temperatures were the warmest ever measured, the second straight month that has happened. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (ninth warmest on record), thanks to the cooling associated with the disappearance of the winter El Ni�o event. The global temperature record goes back 128 years.

May temperatures were particularly warm across Russia. Moscow recorded its highest May temperature since record keeping began 128 years ago--32.9�C (91.2�F). The heat forced Russia's energy administrator to restrict the use of non-residential energy for the first time in summer. In India, a heat wave during mid-May produced temperatures as high as 45-50�C (113-122�F) resulting in at least 128 fatalities. Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change blog has more on the India heat wave. Although record heat was more prevalent across the globe, Argentina experienced its coldest May in twenty years, and at least 23 fatalities were reported as a result of cold weather during the last week of May.

11th warmest May on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., May 2007 ranked as the 11th warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 20th warmest such period on record. Spring (March - May) was 5th warmest on record in the continental U.S. The past six months (Dec-May) were the driest on record for the Southeast U.S. Portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee are experiencing exceptional drought. However, the drought has eased some since late May over the Florida Peninsula.


Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for May 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for May was the third lowest on record, a modest recovery from the lowest ever sea ice coverage observed in April. Arctic sea ice coverage in May has declined by about 8% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for May, for the years 1979-2007. May 2007 had the third lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 8% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

I'll have a new blog on Tuesday.
Jeff Masters

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332. salter
7:35 PM EDT on June 25, 2007
Hey Nash28, I feel your pain storms everywhere up here even drove threw one got to the house bone dry go figure
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331. Patrap
6:35 PM CDT on June 25, 2007
N Atlantic Imagery Link
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329. Inyo
11:30 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Posted By: mermaidlaw at 11:04 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.
Hello everyone, I hope your having a safe, and wonderful evening!

I have a question that may seem silly to some of you. I really wish that even DR. Masters could respond to this one! Is it possible that certain areas get far less rain or storms, than others? What i mean by this is, I hear thunder very often here, yet the storms go just north of me, and just south of me. Also, they are east and west of me. I live in florida, so it is all flat ground. Is there a reason for this pattern, or is it hit and miss?


Certainly there are areas which get less rain than other areas. I'm not sure about Florida, but in the western US, it is not uncommon for thunderstorms to form nearly every day in August over the same prominent mountain, bringing rain every day, while nearby valley areas get little or no rain the whole month. San Francisco Peaks near Flagstaff are a very good example of this. Even though Florida doesn't have mountains, it has sea breeze convergance zones, etc.

However, there is another factor involved: every individual thunderstorm only covers say, 20 square miles, while anyone within 20 miles of hte edge of the storm can see it, meaning a few hundred square miles get 'missed' by any given storm. Again, in the southwestern US, there are thunderstorms forming almost any late summer day somewhere in sight, and often lightning at night, but a given area might only get rain once or twice (or some years not at all, if it's say, death valley). It can be agonizing on a hot summer day to watch the storms over the mountains, if you are stuck in a hot, dry interior valley
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326. hurricane23
7:24 PM EDT on June 25, 2007
Also want to make note that on the lastest GFS model runs it has a major trof setting up and looks like its not going anywere anytime soon.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
324. hurricane23
7:13 PM EDT on June 25, 2007
Wow this is some rebound with the anomalies across the atlantic basin!Will it continue?

interesting
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
323. nash28
11:11 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
JP- Wish I could have witnessed it. I drove home from work and saw some very promising cumulonimbus clouds that were building vertically and becoming very dark. As I got close to the house, they basically vanished and now it is clear as a bell..
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
322. KoritheMan
11:10 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
A TS will come soon enough and give rain to places, though not sure what places. Just wait.

As for mermaidlaw's comment: this happens to me quite often, although lately I haven't been so fortunate. I have had MANY storms in the past that form along a squall line, produce occasional tornadoes in the midst of the severe thunderstorms, and it all missed me, or if it didn't, it's impact was weak and short-lived. A week and a half ago or something like that, a sea breeze made its way 60 miles inland and knocked my power out for 2 hours. Produced about 70 mph winds. I had damage in my yard. The next day, an electrical storm with 30-35 mph wind gusts and blinding rain hit me. My power almost went out, but did not.

mermarid, it's not just you. It happens to me about 70% of the time, too, even if tornadic development is expected. There will be that ONE time where it will happen, though. My guess is it may be localized fluctations in the atmosphere (e.g. dry air aloft in the lower levels of the atmosphere stopping the warm MOIST air from rising).
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318. nash28
11:09 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Me too Texas.... I can only hope our pattern will change soon. Unfortunately, you have to be careful of what you wish for.....
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
317. hurricane23
7:09 PM EDT on June 25, 2007
Here's another view of the wave moving towards southflorida...

Basically through early evening tommorow we are going to be on the dry side of things before it gets kinda wet around here.Tropical waves are very unpredictable and good just easily fizzle out sometime tommorow or strengthen on its way here.Adrian

wave
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13626
315. nash28
11:06 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Again, sorry for being pissy. I am just having a hell of a time trying to save my yard. We can only water once a week without getting a ridiculous fine and when you see storms on the horizon that just go "poof" it can make you angry. You used to be able to set your watch by it during this time of year. 4-5pm ass kicker thunderstorms that would blanket the entire area. They were quick, but they would dump copious amounts of rain and keep us from the crapbag conditions that we are in now....
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
310. PalmHarbor
11:04 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
It's all miss Nash :( We watched a kickbutt storm coming right at us just disappear...
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309. mermaidlaw
10:43 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Hello everyone, I hope your having a safe, and wonderful evening!

I have a question that may seem silly to some of you. I really wish that even DR. Masters could respond to this one! Is it possible that certain areas get far less rain or storms, than others? What i mean by this is, I hear thunder very often here, yet the storms go just north of me, and just south of me. Also, they are east and west of me. I live in florida, so it is all flat ground. Is there a reason for this pattern, or is it hit and miss?

Thanks for answers!!

You can stop laughing now!!:)
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306. wundergroundfan
11:03 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Are the models calling for formation this weekend?
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305. nash28
11:01 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Sorry for the negative tone here, but right now the EPAC doesn't really excite me.....

Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
304. nash28
11:00 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Wow! The NWS forecast at 2pm for Tampa Bay was a frekin' bust.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
300. Buhdog
10:48 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
I am a salesman in Ft Myers. Today was sick hot for sure. Getting a late evening sea-breeze collision at my house in the Cape now.

Gotta love the rain!
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299. Skyepony (Mod)
10:33 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
eye~ No where did I mention FL/GA fire. Back in 1998 Jacksonville to Orlando to the ocean pretty near all burnt in a horrific El Nio drought. At one point all of Volusia county was evacuated. DRiving I-95 afterward about everything was burnt for 120 miles, woods, trees nieghborhoods, some fences a few sheds. All that stood was the houses. They had just kept foaming them infront of the fires & clearing people out. (Some engines also carry special equipment to spray foam and chemicals on homes and other structures to help them resist fire. Foam is a bubbly water solution that makes flammable materials less likely to ignite. )A faster moving fire is actually better as long as you stay infront of it. A gas station burnt & a few homes before the foam was a standard tool in saving structures that year.
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298. NorthxCakalaky
10:32 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Here is some reports where i live.06/24/2007 0608 PM

3 miles NW of Wilbar, Wilkes County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by dept of Highways.


Several trees down on Route 16 north.




06/24/2007 0617 PM

3 miles NE of Boomer, Wilkes County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by dept of Highways.


Several trees down on Route 18 south.




06/24/2007 0630 PM

3 miles E of Elkville, Wilkes County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by dept of Highways.


Several trees donn on Route 268





06/24/2007 0625 PM

Moravian Falls, Wilkes County.

Hail e0.75 inch, reported by public.






06/24/2007 0622 PM

Millers Creek, Wilkes County.

Hail e0.75 inch, reported by amateur radio.


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297. Cirrusboy
10:25 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
I'd like to know how hurricane intensification relates to storm size? For example given two storms in equally favorable conditions is the smaller storm able to intensify more rapidly? I'm really not even sure if there is a relation but if there is could someone give me an explanation?
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296. HopquickSteve
9:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Since when did this become an old earth, young earth forum?

But since they want an off topic conversation, I'm going to just throw in my Theological/Philosophical/Creationist/Star Trek/Back to the Future opinion.

The problem with Carbon 14 Dating is that it assumes causality. If time is created, who says time has to always be going forward. What if the world was created in 7 days, and then time was created backwards (or unwound backwards) to put into place the variables ("the causes") necessary for the first moment (which could be 6000 years ago). So to say the earth is 6000 years old and 4.5 billion years old can both be true. We just assume time always goes forward because of a sticky little thing called causality. If you were outside of time...it's not an issue ;) We can travel faster than light, but we would have to figure out how to deal with the lack of causality created by the paradox. And thus, I've solved all the great problems of the universe. For you see, time is unrolling backwards from a desired result instead of randomly trotting forward. "Deja Vu", "foreknowledge", "predestination", "the problem of evil", and ultimately, who lives and dies in natural disasters, ie. hurricanes (to come back to topic), all form the universe to create the desired result which is at some point in the "future". It is the future that is the creation, not just the past. ;)

And so, we can all agree that our understanding of the space-time continuum is not omniscient...therefore, the discussion on the age of earth is irrelevant, since we know that causality is irrelevant, especially when one could exist outside of time, which then a creator God would, right?

So whether or not you get struck by lightning has to do more with the future, the end result, than the past.

Whee!
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295. charliesurvivor
10:26 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
upper level low interacting with a tropical wave to influence all of South Florida by Wednesday.will break heat over S.W. Fla. 98 degree official record high in Ft.Myers Monday.
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294. NorthxCakalaky
10:26 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Two sever thunder-storm warnings in 2 days..And again the local forcasters predicted a 30% chance of a thunder-storm.
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293. Dakster
9:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
MisterPerfect,

I agree with your chart and temperatures. I do peronsally agree that there is a variability in the Earth's average temperature.

However, there is one important thing you forgot to mention in your discussion. Almost every living organism in you chart (except for the today column) is now extinct!

[Yeah, yeah, I know, the cockroach and horseshoe crab are of prehistoric origin.)

Are you at least in agreement that a rise in global temperature will cause changes to the Earth?

While I am still not sure that we are causing GW or how much we are causing, the fact is that GW appears to be happening. Either way, we (humans) will have to make some changes to adapt to it, unless we want to go the way of the dinosaur.

My philosophy, whether we are creating GW or not, we need to be prepared to make some changes.
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292. ClearH2OFla
5:59 PM EDT on June 25, 2007
weird weather here in Clearwater. Like 20 mph winds bel air and 19 for those you in pinellas county
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291. BoyntonBeach
10:23 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Sorry to hear that tampahurricane, I hope he feels better. My 8 yr old Lab lost her retinas about a month ago, meaning she is permanently blind now, no amount of money can fix it...
Member Since: July 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
290. Inyo
10:01 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
extreme warming events have happened in the past. So have meteor impacts. Just beacuse meteor impacts sometimes happen naturally, does that mean we want to smash a meteor into earth? Why accentuate a natural process that could already harm us?
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289. Randyman
10:02 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Posted By: CURIOUSWEATHERGRL at 9:23 PM GMT on June 25, 2007.

The tropics have been really quiet. Is the wind shear still really high in the eastern atlantic and is this hurricane season still predicted to be high?


Here is a very good explanation of why things are slow now but may change dramatically towards the end of July...
Link
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288. HurricaneRoman
10:00 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Hey guys... I have a question ... Is the current set up of high bad for the U.S. especially if this were august or september???
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287. stoormfury
9:25 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
the wind shear is still very high over thr MDRLink
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284. tampahurricane
9:27 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
i have a cocker spanial that i hade to take to the vet today because he was running down the stairs in my house when he triped and fell down them and every time he would stand up he would start crying so we had x-rays taken and he messed up 2 discs in his lower back so that is going to cost me 8,000 dollars but any thing to make him better.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.