Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

for some reason i just have a very eerie feeling about this storm sitting in west palm beach........i don't think the NHC has quite a good grasp on it yet

Linkthis is the gfdl model...is this the new run?

So the GFS is again the extreme, but all other model have shifted closer to the GFS of yesterday. Everyone from S Florida, to the upper gulf coast, to the southeast coast needs to watch this system closely. Looks good on radar, just a little dry air still to the N an W that it may try to wrap in but unlikely. This thing could get strong and I for one still think it could go anywere.

well iamnot going that crazy but 85-100kts is not out of the question specially if she stalls over open water

the radar is showing a light spot clearing out just to the south of where that other "eye"-like feature was...what I see now on radar much more resembles an eye with everything rotating clearly around it. It also confirms a due west motion.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/KATRINA.track.png another model that agrees with the northeast Florida exit.

B

New forecast map I just published Link

I live in Pinellas County, just west of Tampa Bay. How close do you all think it will be?

no actually the gfs has hsifted east as well. tho model that has had this sytem the bst has been the gfdl. the gfs now doesn't really brig her on shore and moves her up the east coast. befor she moved over florida than turned north. all this is do to better knowldege og the orientation of the ridge

the mm5 fsu is highly unrel;iable as it is just experimental, possibly a new models in the future. i rearely look at it

the GFS looks reasonable so far..thru 42 hrs

cherikm, Katrina could easily come within 40 miles of us. The problem is Katrina could make a curve when it enters the Gulf that would keep her within 100 miles of us for over 24 hours.

79, would you mind not pointing your arrow at my house? M'kay, thanks! :)

If this thing chooses to meander off shore before resuming movement a CAT 4 or 5 is not out of the realm. I agree with WPB. Her sleeves are not rollde up yet and she has not flipped her hole cards. This will be a strange ride before it is all said and done.

I'm worried about how strong she could get when she enters the gulf. The water is just plain hot right now!

Lucky guess Rx :)

Lefty, the GFDL is the southern most outlier. While not out of the realm can you really say that it has been the most accurate with this storm? It also never had it making it as far N or E as it currently is.

Hallelujah (can't spell that)....the GFS has come to its senses!

Now shows it exiting the GUlf coast near Naples, FL......

I want to see her half way across Florida and moving W at a good clip before I am certain that she enters the Gulf.

trust me...we have bath water on this side too....i read in the post the other day it is the warmest ever here.....we were in it the other day and it was horribly warm......

cherikm, when Katrina gets into the gulf, she will have winds only about 50 MPH, but remember Dennis earlier this season that had "rediculous" strengthening upon hitting the Gulf. So I am not 100% sure about the intensity, but it will regain hurricane status.

Where do you see that Cane?

LOL...now the GFS has it getting stuck on the Gulf Coast (instead of the Atlantic)...at least thru 72 hrs. But hey, it's a trend and I'll take it. Stuart has had their fair share of hurricanes. =)

I can just remember watching Charley in awe last year. We had evacuated to a friends house and were glued to the news and I swear it seemed like it jumped from a 2 to a 4 in just a couple updates. I know they can really intensify quickly and after Charley, anything coming up the coast worries me as no one really knows when or if it will turn towards the coast.

here storm...Link

The movement seems to me to be a very slow slightly N of due W. Agree?

showers beginning here in wpb...sure to increase over the next couple hours

The GFS seems to be painting a bad scenario for the West Central Coast of FLorida...especially with the rainfall potential

Hey Cane - can you give me a link to the new run? All I seem to find is the 18Z run when I go hunting for GFS runs...Thanks! :-)

no I don't really agree. I see due west..

zeenster- I just posted it above in the "here storm" post...

it is wobbling...but i think that has more to do with a possible eyewall development, sort of akin to when it begins eyewall replacement cycles....not to mention it is slowign to a point where nay movement looks more than it really is

I tend to agree, it looks as if she has almost stalled

hey storm...you better watch it Jeff14 might get a hold of you. ;-)

what do we think recon will find in an hour...what do we think the pressure has dropped to and the winds increases to....i think it is safe to say we are not dealing with a four digit pressure anymore

STORMTOPS NWS BULLETIN 11PMCDT

OBSERVATIONS TONIGH HAS SEEN KATRINA DDEPEN IN THE PRESSURE OF THE STPRM AND GAIN A LITTLE STRENNGT..THE MOST APPARENT THING IS KATRINA JUST AS I SAID EARLIER WAS MOVING ON A STRAIGHT WEST HEADING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO THE STORM REACHES THE FLORIDA COAST I THINK IT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF MIAMI..LET ME EXOLAIN WHY I FEEL THIS WAY..KATRINA HA SALREADY BEEN UNDER THE INGLUENCE OF THIS VERY STRONG EAST TO WEST HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH I PERSONALLY THINK THE NHC DOES NOT REALLY KNOW HOW STRONG THIS HIGH WILL BE...I THINK KATRINA WILL START MOVING WSW LATER IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD COMING OFF SHORE IN THE SOUTHESATERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF MIAMI AS A CAT 1...I EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE 80 MPH BY 11AM TOMORROW AND 95 WHEN KATRINA HITS SOUTHERN FLA...AFTER THAT KATRINA WILL NOT SLOW DOWN AS EVERYONE IS EXPECTING IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A WEST DIRECTION UNTIL 85 DEGRESS THEN MAKE ITS TURN TOWARDS THE WNW SATURDAY NIGHT AS KATRINA STRENGTHENS INTO A DANGEROUS CAT 4 HURRICANE WITH WINDS APPROACHING 145MPH...ON SUNDAY A COLL FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE ROCKIES AND WEAKEN THE HIGH THAT IS NOW OVER LA MS ALABAMA...THIS WILL CAUSE KATRINA TO MAKE THE FINAL TURN TOWARDS THE NW AS THE HIGH IS PUSHED WESTWARD INTO TEXAS...SUNDAY MORNING A HURRICANE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM HOUMA LA TO PENSECOLA FLORIDA..KATRINA BY THIS TIME WILL BE A CAT 5 WITH WINDS APPROACHING 170MPH BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHE NEARS A LANDFALL...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE FROM NEW ORLEANS TO MOBILE ALABAMA...MY PREDICTION KATRINA MOVES ON SHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 170MPH NEAR PASS CHRISTIAN MISS...THIS IS A SERIOUS SITUATION FOR BOTH MISS,LA, AND ALABAMA..THATS THE LATEST THINKING RIGHT NOW ILL BE BACK WITH ANOTHER UPDATE ABOUT 8AM IN THE MORNING AFTER I READ MORE NEW DATA COMING IN...FOLKS I CANT STRESS THIS ENOUGH WHEN KATRINA GETS OVER THE GULF SHE WILL BE OVER IT FOR 2 WHOLE DAYS IN 89-95 DEGREE TEMPS..PLEASE TAKE ALL NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AGAINST THIS RECORD BREAKING HURRICANE....

Thanks, Cane. Hey StormJunkie...breathe a little slower, dude. Remember Schwartz-ey boy's bio and just relax and picture him in Oz...LOL. The only cure for him is the MUTE button. Works great at my house!

OK I have an idea here....will announce it shortly.

Hi, I'm a beginner at all of this, right now mostly just watching and collecting links to maps and loops.... What happens if the 'eye' that's getting covered now on the radar is indeed the center? Does that mean it's getting stronger or weaker?

no look at the gfdl slowly and look at the time stamps. she takes her nw than w and wsw than west again. where the center currently is is where the gfdl said it would be than 12 hrs it starts its turn

Hey beginner. =)

IMO, it is a good sign for the stage we're at. It most likely means convection is exploding over the center and temporarily obscuring it. Thus far we have not had a real "eye" yet anyway. This usually comes about the same time as hurricane strength....

alright leftyy, do you promise not to flip out here in a minute?

Welcome, AySz88! Glad to have you on board. We hope you learn a lot from us - amateurs and pros alike. :-) Ask anything you like, and don't worry if it's a "dumb" question...we've all been there at one time or another. You might find a few links to collect on my florida resident blog, too, so poke around in there for your collection.

Thanks for the uderstanding and love ya'll. He drives me nuts. If it had not been for you guys I might have taken a bat to the TV.lmao

and in the 11pm track the nhc almost folows the gfdl and has moved thier forcast track south than where it was in the last update

oh brother! cane is fixin to stir up something.....

as long as people don't call me stormtop again

Well I haven't posted for a while but Im concerned my humble little mobile home in Dania Beach isn't going to fare to well. And I now believe StormTop needs to change his name to doomstop. Sorry top you must have a hard on for this girlie katrina.

I'll take that as a yes.

Just an observation of mine- you disappeared all of a sudden and then tada comes an update from STORMTOP. I said "OK guys I have an idea" as a signal that I was onto something, and was predicting your return shortly. Within two minutes you returned posting......

lol too late!