Katrina may intensify rapidly

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:36 PM GMT on August 24, 2005

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The NHC 5pm discussion mentions that an experimental intensification model is forecasting a 57% chance that Katrina will undergo rapid intensification Thursday just before landfall in South Florida. The GFDL model is also calling for rapid intensification. This means that Katrina could be a Category 3 hurricane when it hits South Florida. The current thinking is still that there is enough dry air around Katrina to make it a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane at landfall, but keep in mind that hurricane intensity forecasts are very unreliable.

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901. SherryB
4:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2005
Still wondering..could someone answer...any ideas of what that is right behind Katrina?
900. SherryB
4:16 PM GMT on August 25, 2005
We are getting decent winds here and I am about 20 miles SW of Daytona Beach...
898. leftyy420
3:00 PM GMT on August 25, 2005
still filll that with 18-24 more hours over waters, wind could get upto 85-100kts
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
897. leftyy420
2:55 PM GMT on August 25, 2005
60mph wonds, radar is lloking lots better, she finnally got rid of the dry air and expect a rapid stregthening today. hurricane force mostlikely by 2pm update
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
896. SherryB
12:39 PM GMT on August 25, 2005
Any thoughts on the thing riding Katrinas coat tails?
895. 53rdWeatherRECON
12:27 PM GMT on August 25, 2005
KATRINA is really blowing up. These are the highest her cloud tops have been. If the winds reach the surface soon an eye wall will form before landfall. The last microwave passes almost show this. I realize the big picture looks ragged but inside Katrina is becoming an organized storm.
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
894. newtoNOLA
12:21 PM GMT on August 25, 2005
Could someone explain to a novice what changed since yesterday morning that now has Katrina steering to the north when she reemerges into the gulf. Yesterday morning the track looked like she could be headed to LA coast. Thanks
893. SherryB
12:15 PM GMT on August 25, 2005
Hello all..wow that blob behind Katrina is REALLY blowing up...I know all of you have been talking about this but I just saw it for the first time!
892. Zeenster
12:00 PM GMT on August 25, 2005
Yeah - she threw some convection at a wave that was sitting north of Hispaniola overnight. It seems to be hanging on to it so far, but we'll see. It's not in the best shear environment. NHC commented on it in the tropical outlook. I'd say give it a few more hours and see if it hangs onto it through the diurnal minimum....
891. FSUstormnut
11:56 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Does anyone see that blob behind Katrina. That looks a like a little more than outflow.

Link
Member Since: June 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
890. Zeenster
11:53 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Rats. Link didn't work. Okay - try this one. Directions: Set image quality to 100%, click on animation button, then click on Katrina on MAP (NOT on animation button!). Link
889. Zeenster
11:49 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Look at the last frame...you can just see an eye forming. Link
888. FSUstormnut
11:48 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
As of 8am

"
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
...110 km from the center. An automated observing station at
Settlement Point on Grand Bahama Island recently reported sustained
winds of 43 mph with a gust to 50 mph...and Freeport on Grand
Bahama Island also reported sustained winds of 43 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches"

She is getting better organized
Member Since: June 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
887. newinfl
11:39 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
is the a way for this screen to auto refresh?
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
886. evolution
11:34 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
She's definately picking up steam, but she'd have to slow down forward speed considerably before making landfall in order to intensify.
885. caneman
11:34 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
What are the chances of this thing making landfall in the Stuart PSL area?
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 99
884. evolution
11:33 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Jedkins, you're on the east coast right?
883. Jedkins
11:30 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Those squall bands are very intense and the convection seems to be incresing throught the whole west and northwest side,maybe it will reall get its act together btween now and 5:00pm.
882. Zeenster
11:30 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
I'm waiting on the new vortex, since the plane had to abort during the night so the 5 am was based on satellite and radar only. Should have new data soon....
881. Zeenster
11:28 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Not yet, but she's working on it. Doing much better now than about three hours ago, that's for sure - she looked very ragged then. The last couple of hours she's really been working on getting her act together.
880. Jedkins
11:28 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Watch the radar is what I am doing,notice that the storm is beging to work the dry air out,and once those intense squals wrap around the center,it will quickly become a hurricane.
879. Jedkins
11:26 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
The shear is still low but the dry air isn't gone yet thats all.
878. Zeenster
11:24 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Mornin' Jedkins...have you seen the IR loop??? Holy cow, is all I can say....
877. Jedkins
11:23 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Ok I want to stress something,the precip water value is 2.45 in miami right now which is Extremely high and dry air intrusion is on this side well the precip water is even higher in the more developed area where there is no dry air,an other words this thing has the kind of moisture that you willl only find in a tropical cyclone and the dry air is moving out and once it does the potential for dangerous flooding with extrely heavy squalls wrapping around the storm also it is likely that it will undergo some form of rqapid intensification when the dry air is fought off,and that is the only thing that is holding this storm back from exploding right now,also it is REALLY slowing down now like the NHC expected.
876. Zeenster
11:16 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
More like twins....lol :-)
875. newinfl
11:15 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
u explaied it ok. like two school girls fighting over the same boy?
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
874. Zeenster
10:59 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
No - doesn't bother Katrina at all. The dry air in the neighborhood has the potential..in fact that's probably what kept her looking raggedy during the night. But the "thing" over by Hispaniola is just sucking up whatever exhaust it gets when Katrina gets an occasional bit of northeasterly shear and a piece of convection slides off. (Kind of like the dog under the table...lol). The only time storms get in each others way is when they are both truly tropical cyclones. Then they have this tendency to argue with one another, and try and rotate around one another or one gets dominant and steals convection from the other and rotates around the other...it gets complicated. To be honest, I've seen it but I can't adequately explain it. :-)
873. newinfl
10:47 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Thanks very much Z. Does this additional (storm) change the forcaste models? I'm in the panhandle and have never had to watch hurricanes, did not get them in Big D., go out my back door and on the gulf now. gotta learn to watch this stuff.
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
872. Zeenster
10:32 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
I suppose, but it's in a higher shear environment. I agree with caneforecaster on this - wait about 8 hours and see what it looks like then. It has to be more than just a cluster of thunderstorms. It has to persist, and it has to develop a low-level circulation (LLC) to become a storm. That's not an instant type of thing. NHC mentions it in their outlook Link so keep an eye on that if you're concerned.
871. newinfl
10:31 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
man that look awsome. The 2nd one further south looks as bad.
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
870. caneforecaster
10:29 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Alright I gotta take at least a quick nap. I don't know if what we're seeing at this moment is really "rapid" deepening, seems to be losing a bit of momentum. But I think she has more in her, it will come, lol.
869. Fast5
10:25 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Thanx Zeenster.
So, is it possible for that big convection north of Hispaniola to become another storm?
868. caneforecaster
10:18 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
^^ I'm referring to that random blow-up north of Hispaniola...
867. caneforecaster
10:17 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Look back at it in about 8 hours. Then we can make some judgments.
866. Zeenster
10:17 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Well, newinfl - basically Katrina looked like cr*p until about a couple of hours ago. She threw off a big load of convection to that wave to her southeast, then sat there and looked raggedy. Now, she's suddenly not only looking real healthy - she's exploding. Here's a link to a great image (thanks caneforecaster). Set the quality to 100%, click the button for animated, and click on the MAP (not the animate button. Those last 4 frames are amazing! Link Then, head on over to this radar link and see what I suspect may be the beginnings of an eye...best she's looked all night: Link What do you think? Impressive, isn't she??!!
865. newinfl
10:13 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
i just looked at the sat and thought what has happened here, sleep a few hour and wow? what is the 2nd storm? new here and don't know much!
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
864. Zeenster
10:10 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Oh, Fast5 - are you referring to the thing north of Hispaniola? There's a wave there that sucked up some of Katrina's exhaust a few hours ago and combined it with the normal diurnal maximum. It will be interesting to see if it dies down or hangs on to its convection.
863. caneforecaster
10:09 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
yepp...it's trying. Prob not there yet but depending on how this convection wraps up, might not be too long.
862. newinfl
10:08 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
what has she done overnite?
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
861. caneforecaster
10:08 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
lol...interaction between burst of outflow and a tropical wave/disturbance.
860. Zeenster
10:07 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Hey Caneforecaster - is it me, or is that an eye I'm seeing on composite reflectivity short range radar?
859. Fast5
10:06 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
What is that big Blow-Up just SE of Katrina?
858. Zeenster
10:05 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Hi StPeteGirl - we all have that problem. Administration is working on it, so we're trying to be patient. Jeff Masters and Steve Gregory are very knowledgeable, and some of the pros and amateurs who post here are very worthwhile. You learn to weed through the other stuff after a while. Caneforecaster and I are scientists, but not meteorologists - can we answer something for you?
857. caneforecaster
10:04 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
zeenster you still up? The latest radar shows this thing barrelling (I use the term lightly) WSW. I pray it continues.
856. caneforecaster
10:01 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
loool, there is a lot of arguing. But I've been to other weather places and they have it too. It sort of comes with the territory, lol.

Although, the kind of arguing here is a bit different in that it seems to be caused by--well I won't get into details. If I were you I would try the weatherboards that are out there. They're pretty cool. Storm2K and Wright Weather Bulletin Board are a couple.
855. caneforecaster
9:59 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
latest frame is out on the loop....one thing's for sure. This is finally it. =)
854. StPeteGirl
9:59 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Anyone know of any other weather blogs? I've been reading this one for about a month and it's too hard to follow weather info with all the arguing.
853. caneforecaster
9:56 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
hmm I'm not sure, although I agree on the resolution. I don't care much for microwave myself. Only time I like it is when for some reason I can't identify the center...otherwise I can figure it all out by satellite.
852. Zeenster
9:52 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Do you know if we've had a recent microwave pass? The microwave images I've found are a little old, and the resolution is horrible...
851. Zeenster
9:48 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
Ooooh...check the short range composite loop....shows the whole center circulation. Is that what you are watching?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.