Quiet tropics; update on Bill Proenza's doings

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 22, 2007

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The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The low pressure system over northern Florida that brought rain to the state Thursday has moved out to sea and weakened. Wind shear is high over this low, sea surface temperatures beneath it are cool, and I don't expect any development. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. Our best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until the next strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast. The long range GFS model forecast expects this to happen around Saturday June 30.

Bill Proenza news
In the absence of much to talk about in the tropics, we can always talk about the latest on new NHC director Bill Proenza. The View from the Surface blog is keeping up with the latest. Last night, I listened in to Proenza's comments on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show. I asked him where he got his numbers of 16% and 10% improvement for 72-hour and 49-hour hurricane track forecasts made using QuikSCAT satellite data (his boss, acting NWS director Mary Glackin, said "I'm not willing to stand by those numbers.") Proenza cited a study done of hurricane tracks from 2003 that showed these improvements, and Margie Kieper is working on getting a copy of this study for the View From the Surface blog. Margie came across a 2006 study which shows that for one storm studied (Hurricane Cindy of 1999), inclusion of QuikSCAT data improved track forecasts at 24 hours and 48 hours by 30-50% (Figure 1). There is also a 2007 study which showed improvements of 25%-50% for 24 hour - 48 hour model track forecasts of 2002's Hurricane Isidore using QuikSCAT data vs. no QuikSCAT data (Figure 2). We'll have more on the ongoing Bill Proenza hullaballo next week, with more info on just how important QuikSCAT is to hurricane forecasting.


Figure 1. Forecast error in the track of Hurricane Cindy (1999) with and without using QuikSCAT data. Image credit: NOAA. Data taken from the 2006 paper, The use of remotely sensed data and innovative modeling to improve hurricane prediction, by Robert Atlas, O. Reale, B-W. Shen, and S-J. Lin.


Figure 2. Forecast error in the track of Hurricane Isidore (2002) with and without using QuikSCAT data. Image credit: American Meteorological Society, "The Impact of Assimilating SSM/I and QuikSCAT Satellite Winds on Hurricane Isidore Simulations", by Shu-Hua Chen. Monthly Weather Review 135, issue 2, pp 549-566, February 2007.

Jeff Masters

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476. weathermanwannabe
9:04 PM EDT on June 23, 2007
Will be back tommorow, but, interesting to note that Cindy formed from a wave coming off Africa in late June; we certainly have not had that set-up yet this season so I would expect that any storm threatening the US in July (as usual unless an anomoly occurs which we never know)would come from remnants in the Carr or GOM.....Have a nice one folks...
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475. Melagoo
1:04 AM GMT on June 24, 2007
How did the levees hold up as long as they did .... in 2005
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1607
474. Patrap
8:02 PM CDT on June 23, 2007
Cindy and its remnants Had a track that caused trouble..a long way. Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
473. Patrap
8:01 PM CDT on June 23, 2007
Cindy 2005 Local Radar Landfall...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
472. Patrap
7:58 PM CDT on June 23, 2007
Trouble can come quickly at the end of June and early July..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
471. Melagoo
12:58 AM GMT on June 24, 2007
2006
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1607
470. Melagoo
12:57 AM GMT on June 24, 2007
2005
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1607
467. weathermanwannabe
8:45 PM EDT on June 23, 2007
While I am not a GWT, and I did not see that report, it would appear to be way off base as June has historically been the quietest time in the tropics....We will get a few majors this season but it will probably not happen until July and August/September when the warmest SST's are prevalent...
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466. boiredfish
12:41 AM GMT on June 24, 2007
I don't understand....according to the GWT's (Global Warming Theorists) we should have had 3 major storms by now? Guess with that tropical moisture moving into SE Texas/SW La. this week better change fishing plans.
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463. stormhank
12:12 AM GMT on June 24, 2007
Hi everyone! I need a little help... I cant seem to open any PDF files past 2 weeks.. when I try a box comes up sayin save or find help to open this. the help sends me to adobe which I already have. adobe 7.0... i tried deleting it n download adobe 8.0 but, it wont let me delete it? any one with advice?
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462. CrazyC83
12:02 AM GMT on June 24, 2007
Barrie was on May 31, 1985; there were dozens of other tornadoes that day across the lower Great Lakes region, including another F4 across Dufferin County into York Region in Ontario (for like 50 miles) plus about 15 other tornadoes in southern Ontario. As well that day there was as an F5 in Pennsylvania and many other strong tornadoes in Pennsylvania and Ohio. 88 people were killed by that outbreak - the deadliest outbreak in the 33 years since the Super Outbreak.
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
461. Melagoo
11:57 PM GMT on June 23, 2007
I remember the Barrie F4 storm ... I was in Oakville ON at the time and the sky turned green very scary can't imagine the people in Barrie must have witnessed.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1607
457. WPBHurricane05
7:56 PM EDT on June 23, 2007
If that had worked out....then the name Charley would have been retired....then what would Charley have been named in 04?

Hurricane Charley was replaced with the name Colin.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
456. CrazyC83
11:46 PM GMT on June 23, 2007
I agree Melagoo. Most of it should stay in Canada tonight, but some may creep into northern North Dakota. There are tornado watches (would be PDS probably if the SPC wrote them) and warnings currently out in parts of southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba.

The last F4 in Canada was in 1987 in Edmonton. 27 people died in that one (which might have been an F5). The last definite F5 in Canada was in 1920 in rural Saskatchewan.
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
455. sporteguy03
11:49 PM GMT on June 23, 2007
JP,
It was hot enough in central Florida today to grill on the side walk, at my job at the Wide World of Sports people were exhausted from the heat. I hear tomorrow Mid 90s again.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
450. sporteguy03
11:39 PM GMT on June 23, 2007
JP,
Grilling in Seminole County?
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449. Melagoo
11:39 PM GMT on June 23, 2007
CrazyC83 ... with the severe weather on the continent we should be following that a lot closer than the very uneventful Atlantic storm conditions.
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448. Patrap
11:37 PM GMT on June 23, 2007
GOM Archive SST's from Ivan, Rita and Katrina with Tracks
Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
445. hurricane91
11:19 PM GMT on June 23, 2007
Station FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL

reports a 65 kts(75 mph) wind gust, kind of funny since i live around ft.myers and been clear and nice all day
443. Patrap
10:58 PM GMT on June 23, 2007
GFSx...10day Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
437. CrazyC83
10:46 PM GMT on June 23, 2007
Yep, there was an F4 tornado in Elie, Manitoba (a small farm village about 20 miles west of Winnipeg) No one was injured, thankfully. There were several other tornadoes as well, and a significant threat exists today (probably would be Moderate Risk if the SPC extended up there). http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/canada/AWCN11.CWWG
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
435. WPBHurricane05
10:29 PM GMT on June 23, 2007
From the NWS in Miami:

A tropical wave between 40 and 50 west is still forecast to come around the periphery of the middle Atlantic ridge and the northern part of the wave is forecast to approach South Florida on Tuesday and bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. The extended guidance continues to suggest this scenario.

OK so lets look at the satellite image of this Central Atlantic wave between 40W and 50W



Am I missing something?
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
431. hurricane23
10:04 PM GMT on June 23, 2007
Good afternoon..

Ive made some custom satellite images for the state of florida on my website.Feel free to check them out.

Scroll down to the bottom of the page.

Adrian's Satellite images
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
430. Skyepony (Mod)
10:04 PM GMT on June 23, 2007
tropicfreak~ I've been watching that S TX/MEX bit of weather for 24 hrs or so now (it's no afternoon storm), with mild intrest, in the face of not much else interesting. Conditions (shear comparision) aren't all that great, what catches my eye is that all the models keep calling for it to go north. According to them yesterday this should be way north by now & it keeps going SE. Which by looking at the satalite loops I'd expect it to keep doing. Everything from that area, for the better part of a month has avoided the gulf like the plague. A pattern change? We'll see...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39467
429. lightning10
9:58 PM GMT on June 23, 2007
Zzzzzzz

no dramatic changes through the remainder of
the week into next weekend. An upper low will remain mostly in place
off the Washington/or coast, maintaining weak cyclonic flow over Southern
California. Minor day to day temperature fluctuations, mainly as a
result of slight changes in the low level inversion height and onshore
pressure gradients. But overall temperatures will be at or slightly above
normal.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
427. Melagoo
9:53 PM GMT on June 23, 2007
Manitoba gets hit by tornados one or more were F4

mantorn
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 19 Comments: 1607

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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