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Quiet tropics; update on Bill Proenza's doings

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 22, 2007

The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The low pressure system over northern Florida that brought rain to the state Thursday has moved out to sea and weakened. Wind shear is high over this low, sea surface temperatures beneath it are cool, and I don't expect any development. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. Our best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until the next strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast. The long range GFS model forecast expects this to happen around Saturday June 30.

Bill Proenza news
In the absence of much to talk about in the tropics, we can always talk about the latest on new NHC director Bill Proenza. The View from the Surface blog is keeping up with the latest. Last night, I listened in to Proenza's comments on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show. I asked him where he got his numbers of 16% and 10% improvement for 72-hour and 49-hour hurricane track forecasts made using QuikSCAT satellite data (his boss, acting NWS director Mary Glackin, said "I'm not willing to stand by those numbers.") Proenza cited a study done of hurricane tracks from 2003 that showed these improvements, and Margie Kieper is working on getting a copy of this study for the View From the Surface blog. Margie came across a 2006 study which shows that for one storm studied (Hurricane Cindy of 1999), inclusion of QuikSCAT data improved track forecasts at 24 hours and 48 hours by 30-50% (Figure 1). There is also a 2007 study which showed improvements of 25%-50% for 24 hour - 48 hour model track forecasts of 2002's Hurricane Isidore using QuikSCAT data vs. no QuikSCAT data (Figure 2). We'll have more on the ongoing Bill Proenza hullaballo next week, with more info on just how important QuikSCAT is to hurricane forecasting.

Figure 1. Forecast error in the track of Hurricane Cindy (1999) with and without using QuikSCAT data. Image credit: NOAA. Data taken from the 2006 paper, The use of remotely sensed data and innovative modeling to improve hurricane prediction, by Robert Atlas, O. Reale, B-W. Shen, and S-J. Lin.

Figure 2. Forecast error in the track of Hurricane Isidore (2002) with and without using QuikSCAT data. Image credit: American Meteorological Society, "The Impact of Assimilating SSM/I and QuikSCAT Satellite Winds on Hurricane Isidore Simulations", by Shu-Hua Chen. Monthly Weather Review 135, issue 2, pp 549-566, February 2007.

Jeff Masters

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726. pottery2
7:15 PM AST on June 24, 2007
Alex, yr. wrong. Everything a certaian person says on this blog, is written in stone. Fortunately, he has not been around lately. LOL
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725. Patrap
6:15 PM CDT on June 24, 2007

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722. pottery2
7:12 PM AST on June 24, 2007
Or hows about The Shear And SAL Show. ( Dont say it ,you will bite off a piece of yr tongue )
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721. ryang
7:13 PM AST on June 24, 2007
LOL Pottery...
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720. Alec
7:11 PM EDT on June 24, 2007
Nothing is written in stone JFYI!...LOL
719. pottery2
7:07 PM AST on June 24, 2007
Shear and SAL. A Storm's Worst Nightmare. We should sell; the rights of that to Hollywood. I get to be Shear, You get to be....oh, wait a minute, I think we need Ladies to play those parts !
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716. ryang
7:05 PM AST on June 24, 2007
Yeah... If not for shear too...
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713. pottery2
6:58 PM AST on June 24, 2007
Its running into heavy SAL too. It would be worse weather if it wasnt.
Enjoy the showers !!!!
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712. pottery2
6:54 PM AST on June 24, 2007
Ryang, the wave seems to have changed direction to more northerly from west, and I expect the cloud over Venezuela will pull up north too, so I'm still hoping for some. It's been dry for 2 weeks almost
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711. ryang
6:55 PM AST on June 24, 2007
Pottery... It's pouring here now...

LOL... You can tell shear is killing the wave...
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710. ryang
6:54 PM AST on June 24, 2007
Blog Hole?
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709. pottery2
6:50 PM AST on June 24, 2007
Ryang. No rain !! Cloudy day, some blustery conditions this am. Some rumblings from the south at noon, and now is very still cloud high up, with a gentle ne wind at the surface. Strange. Press 1013 rising !!
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708. ryang
6:53 PM AST on June 24, 2007
The GFS shows a weak low pressure system in the SW Caribbean in a couple of days...Link
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707. ryang
6:47 PM AST on June 24, 2007
Hey Pottery, You getting rain??
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705. pottery2
6:44 PM AST on June 24, 2007
Yeah, WPB, its a bit like saying that American forecasters cant possiby know about weather on the African west coast.
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704. weathermanwannabe
6:38 PM EDT on June 24, 2007
Thanks WPB...Seems like all of the major players/factors are falling in place and I believe that shear values (which are relatively variable from week to week)and the location of the Bermuda High (which will set in place for the remainder of the season come July)will, again, be the most important factors to watch come August and September in terms of formation and threats to the US..
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701. WPBHurricane05
6:40 PM EDT on June 24, 2007
pottery2- Someone also said that they don't get hit by hurricanes so what do they know. Dr. William Gray lives in Colorado. And in fact the UK gets the remnants of some hurricanes (mostly fish storms).
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700. kmanislander
10:40 PM GMT on June 24, 2007

Pls size your images. You are stretching the blog

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699. pottery2
6:24 PM AST on June 24, 2007
A couple of things-
The bashing of UKMET is totally uncalled for, and is horsemanure of the worst kind. Someone on here said that they could not possibly believe anything about the weather that was not stated by a US weather person. Give us a break. The UKMET forecast is based on sound science, using the very latest in technology. ( unlike some other places ) And to state that the uk mets are allowing computers to provide the forecast, with no input from mets. is more manure. How different is their foresast to the US forecast anyway. ?? National Pride and all that is OK, just dont slam everyone else. Wit on the results of the predictions BEFORE you start bull hitting people.
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10:37 PM GMT on June 24, 2007
Those Sea breezes are at it again.
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695. WPBHurricane05
6:35 PM EDT on June 24, 2007
Posted By: FLBoy at 6:53 AM EDT on June 24, 2007.
LMAO! I just called the NWS in Miami and asked the forecaster that wrote this morning's discussion how in the Hell he thought a Wave around 50W could make it to East Coast Florida by Tuesday. LOL!
My answer is that the wave moving through the Central Carib will influence a trough located to the North and drag the moisture down.
So it is not a real Wave....just an inverted trough with moisture.....we all hope!
There ya go!
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694. mermaidlaw
10:30 PM GMT on June 24, 2007
I wonder why some are saying it will come over fl.?
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693. WPBHurricane05
6:30 PM EDT on June 24, 2007
From what I here weathermanwannabe is that the weather pattern we see in mid/late July will stick with us for the entire summer.
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692. mermaidlaw
10:18 PM GMT on June 24, 2007
C2news,that is the wave I asked about earlier. I am also wondering about it.
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691. weathermanwannabe
6:19 PM EDT on June 24, 2007
Hey all...Just cheking in before dinner and nice to see all the chat with regard to the "set-up" patterns for the real season; here is my question. At present, the Jet Stream is running basically accross the Northern US border with Canada, and , I remember that it had dipped way down South last year near the Gulf around August/September contributing to the shear values during the peak of the season. How much variability typically occurs in the position of the jet stream during the summer months and does it also "drop down" come August/September as the first winter trofs begin to sweep down?..I could look it up but I know someone on here will have the quick answer.....
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690. sporteguy03
10:25 PM GMT on June 24, 2007
I will try to post some pictures we need rain badly.
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689. WPBHurricane05
6:25 PM EDT on June 24, 2007
But to answer your question, I doubt it will develop.
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688. sporteguy03
10:25 PM GMT on June 24, 2007
There is a major brushfire in Lake County, FL near Clermont its getting really bad.
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687. WPBHurricane05
6:21 PM EDT on June 24, 2007
C2News this is the wave that they say will influence our weather:

I don't even think the wave will make it here.
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686. C2News
6:15 PM EDT on June 24, 2007
I was in Orlando this weekend and Channel 9 meteorologist Julie Watkin said later this week Florida would be inundated in a tropical wave. Could this wave develop into anything?
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685. Patrap
5:06 PM CDT on June 24, 2007
The BarometerBob show with the NHC director Bill Proenza's interview

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684. tornadofan
10:02 PM GMT on June 24, 2007
Here's a link to that story about Proenza that seflgamms mentioned...
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683. NorthxCakalaky
9:59 PM GMT on June 24, 2007
Im getting off.The winds are picking up.I dont want the lightning to run on my laptop.
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682. NorthxCakalaky
9:53 PM GMT on June 24, 2007
Statement as of 5:33 PM EDT on June 24, 2007

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Wilkes County in northwest North Carolina

* until 630 PM EDT

* at 530 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing penny size hail... and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near
Wilbar... and moving east at 10 mph.

This is a dangerous storm. If you are in its path... prepare
immediately for damaging winds... destructive hail... and deadly cloud
to ground lightning. People outside should move to a shelter...
preferably inside a strong building but away from windows.

Please send your reports of penny or larger sized hail... as well as
wind damage... including trees or large limbs downed by calling the
National Weather Service toll free at... 1... 8 6 6... 2 1 5... 4 3 2 4.

Lat... Lon 3626 8142 3618 8142 3616 8107 3629 8107

Thats where i live
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681. NorthxCakalaky
9:52 PM GMT on June 24, 2007
Radar estimates of 10 inches, those counties were under a sever drought, but thats too much
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680. Caymanite
9:42 PM GMT on June 24, 2007
Good afternoon all. Just checking in to confirm "Nothing is brewing". Nice day for boating here in the Caymans.
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679. NorthxCakalaky
9:50 PM GMT on June 24, 2007
10 inches of rain in half a day..These storms are so slow...Its getting bad here, my power might go off.
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678. NorthxCakalaky
9:48 PM GMT on June 24, 2007

Im under a sever thunder storm warning..County is big so its not here YET.Flooding has reported in the mountains.
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677. seflagamma
5:18 PM AST on June 24, 2007
Another article on Bill Proenza in Ft Lauderdale Sun Sentienal this morning ...front page. And our very own: Dr Jeff Masters was quoted and our Weather Underground was mentioned!!! good reading for the on-going saga!!!

haven't looked around yet...assuming it is still quite in the tropics this afternoon.

have a great evening.
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676. mermaidlaw
8:58 PM GMT on June 24, 2007
Thanks for the info SW and Michael. I feel that July may show some changes in the tropics. Aug. and Sept. might get interesting! I sure hope any storms that form are fish storms! We can only hope. It is always good to stay informed, and prepared! I hope everyone does that.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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