Quiet tropics; update on Bill Proenza's doings

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 22, 2007

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The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The low pressure system over northern Florida that brought rain to the state Thursday has moved out to sea and weakened. Wind shear is high over this low, sea surface temperatures beneath it are cool, and I don't expect any development. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. Our best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until the next strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast. The long range GFS model forecast expects this to happen around Saturday June 30.

Bill Proenza news
In the absence of much to talk about in the tropics, we can always talk about the latest on new NHC director Bill Proenza. The View from the Surface blog is keeping up with the latest. Last night, I listened in to Proenza's comments on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show. I asked him where he got his numbers of 16% and 10% improvement for 72-hour and 49-hour hurricane track forecasts made using QuikSCAT satellite data (his boss, acting NWS director Mary Glackin, said "I'm not willing to stand by those numbers.") Proenza cited a study done of hurricane tracks from 2003 that showed these improvements, and Margie Kieper is working on getting a copy of this study for the View From the Surface blog. Margie came across a 2006 study which shows that for one storm studied (Hurricane Cindy of 1999), inclusion of QuikSCAT data improved track forecasts at 24 hours and 48 hours by 30-50% (Figure 1). There is also a 2007 study which showed improvements of 25%-50% for 24 hour - 48 hour model track forecasts of 2002's Hurricane Isidore using QuikSCAT data vs. no QuikSCAT data (Figure 2). We'll have more on the ongoing Bill Proenza hullaballo next week, with more info on just how important QuikSCAT is to hurricane forecasting.


Figure 1. Forecast error in the track of Hurricane Cindy (1999) with and without using QuikSCAT data. Image credit: NOAA. Data taken from the 2006 paper, The use of remotely sensed data and innovative modeling to improve hurricane prediction, by Robert Atlas, O. Reale, B-W. Shen, and S-J. Lin.


Figure 2. Forecast error in the track of Hurricane Isidore (2002) with and without using QuikSCAT data. Image credit: American Meteorological Society, "The Impact of Assimilating SSM/I and QuikSCAT Satellite Winds on Hurricane Isidore Simulations", by Shu-Hua Chen. Monthly Weather Review 135, issue 2, pp 549-566, February 2007.

Jeff Masters

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126. hurricane23
21:12 EDT le 22 juin 2007
Actually its looking less likely were going to see a nina at all this season to be honest.
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125. hurricane23
9:06 PM EDT on June 22, 2007
Posted By: kmanislander at 6:45 PM EDT on June 22, 2007. (hide)
Well, it seems that a quiet weekend is in store. The Caribbean blob has died down and is very disorganised for now.Mostly high cloud in the NW basin and no rain in the Caymans today. In the absence of a significant flare up overnight there is nothing else on the horizon of any note.

Try a quite next couple of weeks....Which sounds great to me.Adrian
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124. weatherbro
12:49 AM GMT on June 23, 2007
i thought that when upper leval highs strengthen, they tend to go west?
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123. StormJunkie
12:54 AM GMT on June 23, 2007
Chief Thomas's Speech and comments on the speech. Y'all should really check this out. Watching Rusty this morning has had me choked up and smiling all day.

This is from the memorial service for the Charleston firefighters. If you did not watch it, or if you have not seen the Chief's speech please check it out. Hit play on the video in the upper left of the article.

It seems this is only half of his speech. Hope to find the rest soon.
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117. weatherblog
10:37 PM GMT on June 22, 2007
WoW!...is anybody here???....

I'm all alone...lol
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116. highndry1
10:50 PM GMT on June 22, 2007
This has nothing to do with hurricanes per se, but as long as it's quiet, I'd like to point out to those of you interested in the other two elemental forces, earth and fire, that the ongoing eruption of Kilauea has changed dramatically: there was a massive earthquake storm and an issuing of lava 6km uprift of the current vent, then the eruption stopped altogether. Anyway, just thought I might crossbreed natural phenomina here.

http://volcano.wr.usgs.gov/hvostatus.php
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115. kmanislander
10:42 PM GMT on June 22, 2007
Well, it seems that a quiet weekend is in store. The Caribbean blob has died down and is very disorganised for now.Mostly high cloud in the NW basin and no rain in the Caymans today. In the absence of a significant flare up overnight there is nothing else on the horizon of any note.
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114. Smyrick145
10:37 PM GMT on June 22, 2007
Hey StormW, What are your thoughts on the Bermuda/Azores highs setting up this season?
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111. BoyntonBeach
10:16 PM GMT on June 22, 2007
Thanks StormW - I like that term !
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106. BoyntonBeach
10:03 PM GMT on June 22, 2007
DO NOT
PLAN TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR TUE WHICH INTRODUCES 20 POPS ACROSS
THE AREA...AND FOR THE MID/LATE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH CURRENTLY HAS
30-40 POPS.


What are pops ?
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95. ClearH2OFla
5:52 PM EDT on June 22, 2007
FLBOy can post a link that show directional movement.
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92. StormJunkie
9:39 PM GMT on June 22, 2007
That was only half of the Chief's speech on that previous link. I will try to find the rest of it.
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91. ClearH2OFla
5:32 PM EDT on June 22, 2007
FL BOY YOu have models on that please im at work so i have to pop in and pop out
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89. StormJunkie
9:15 PM GMT on June 22, 2007
Chief Thomas's Speech and comments on the speech. Y'all should really check this out. Watching Rusty this morning has had me choked up and smiling all day.

This is from the memorial service for the Charleston firefighters. If you did not watch it, or if you have not seen the Chief's speech please check it out. Hit play on the video in the upper left of the article.
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86. Dodabear
5:10 PM EDT on June 22, 2007
leelee75k:

You could always rent a storage shed for the storm and store all your loose items in there and it would not be near any people to cause personal injury.
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85. HoustonTexan
9:07 PM GMT on June 22, 2007


NWS Houston/Galveston thinks that the tropical wave in the Carribbean is going to affect Houston and SE Texas next week... without developing into a depression or storm, but still streaming a lot of tropical moisture into Southeast Texas, where we have already received too much rain over the last two weeks.
Next week continues to look wet with the GFS continuing to bring
in tropical moisture from the Caribbean beginning Monday. Deep
moisture will remain in place with precipitation water values well above
2 inches with most areas closer to 2.2 inches. This should be
plenty of moisture for heavy rainfall. Probability of precipitation were increased to the
likely category for Monday and Tuesday mainly due to the remarkable
consistency of the GFS and a gradual increase in probability of precipitation each day.
Tropical moisture should remain over much of Texas through the
middle of the week allowing for multiple heavy rainfall events.
Given hit and miss rainfall amounts the last few days...some
areas may be more flood prone than others. There is still time to
evaluate any flooding potential...but flooding may become an
issue especially along rivers should significant rainfall amounts
occur. GFS brings the bulk of the tropical moisture farther north
towards the end of the week. The upper level trough may remain
over Texas with the ridge over the top of it. Long range models are
having a difficult time deciding the evolution of the trough.
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83. leelee75k
8:24 PM GMT on June 22, 2007
thanks kmanislander

it seems after reading both links, it's okay to do both indoors or outdoors, but with lots of caution in either case.

thanks people :D
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82. Inyo
8:18 PM GMT on June 22, 2007
Some computer models are predicting an odd 'winter' storm to hit northern California in about 8 days... which, if it happened, would be a freakish event. Other than that, not much is going on. Sorry! Your blobs look sickly.
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81. leelee75k
8:12 PM GMT on June 22, 2007
thank you flboy

I know about not storing indoors because of the risk of explosions, but what if you don't have a garage?

and I've been told that storing it outside can be just as dangerous. Flying debris can puncture the can, or worse it could fly into something. luckily during


so what do you do then?

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80. kmanislander
8:11 PM GMT on June 22, 2007
here is another page that may be useful

Link
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78. leelee75k
7:59 PM GMT on June 22, 2007
hi everyone,

I've asked this question before but it keeps getting lost in the blog, now that it's quiet in the tropics, maybe someone can answer or point me in the right direction.

How and where do you store propane tanks (bbq grill type) tanks during a hurricane?

I've been trying to put together a hurricane preparedness informational and no where on the net can I find an answer to the above question.

thanks in advance
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77. Skyepony (Mod)
7:54 PM GMT on June 22, 2007
Beautiful landing at Edwards by the shuttle. The weather here did clear. Suprised it wasn't at KSC.
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76. nash28
7:38 PM GMT on June 22, 2007
I just got back to my desk. Have been away for a few hours. Looks like a new burst on convection has fired up on the northern side of the Caribbean blob.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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