Quiet tropics; update on Bill Proenza's doings

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:43 PM GMT on June 22, 2007

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The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. The low pressure system over northern Florida that brought rain to the state Thursday has moved out to sea and weakened. Wind shear is high over this low, sea surface temperatures beneath it are cool, and I don't expect any development. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. Our best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until the next strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast. The long range GFS model forecast expects this to happen around Saturday June 30.

Bill Proenza news
In the absence of much to talk about in the tropics, we can always talk about the latest on new NHC director Bill Proenza. The View from the Surface blog is keeping up with the latest. Last night, I listened in to Proenza's comments on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show. I asked him where he got his numbers of 16% and 10% improvement for 72-hour and 49-hour hurricane track forecasts made using QuikSCAT satellite data (his boss, acting NWS director Mary Glackin, said "I'm not willing to stand by those numbers.") Proenza cited a study done of hurricane tracks from 2003 that showed these improvements, and Margie Kieper is working on getting a copy of this study for the View From the Surface blog. Margie came across a 2006 study which shows that for one storm studied (Hurricane Cindy of 1999), inclusion of QuikSCAT data improved track forecasts at 24 hours and 48 hours by 30-50% (Figure 1). There is also a 2007 study which showed improvements of 25%-50% for 24 hour - 48 hour model track forecasts of 2002's Hurricane Isidore using QuikSCAT data vs. no QuikSCAT data (Figure 2). We'll have more on the ongoing Bill Proenza hullaballo next week, with more info on just how important QuikSCAT is to hurricane forecasting.


Figure 1. Forecast error in the track of Hurricane Cindy (1999) with and without using QuikSCAT data. Image credit: NOAA. Data taken from the 2006 paper, The use of remotely sensed data and innovative modeling to improve hurricane prediction, by Robert Atlas, O. Reale, B-W. Shen, and S-J. Lin.


Figure 2. Forecast error in the track of Hurricane Isidore (2002) with and without using QuikSCAT data. Image credit: American Meteorological Society, "The Impact of Assimilating SSM/I and QuikSCAT Satellite Winds on Hurricane Isidore Simulations", by Shu-Hua Chen. Monthly Weather Review 135, issue 2, pp 549-566, February 2007.

Jeff Masters

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875. sullivanweather
12:23 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Towards the end of June a large persistant trough over the East Coast looks to be the dominate weather feature for at least the first 10 days of July, if not longer.

Anything forming in the Atlantic will probably not make it to the coast.

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874. nash28
12:25 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
Tropics are painfully boring. Nothing going on. Enjoy it while it lasts:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
873. emagirl
12:23 PM GMT on June 25, 2007
good morning everyone........so what is going on in the tropics any thing developing this week??
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872. sullivanweather
11:35 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
If anyone is interested...

Snow is falling this morning in Washington and Oregon with temperatures in the 20's and 30's.

Frost advisories are posted for South-Central Oregon and northern California.

Even Stampede Pass, WA (elevation 3,960ft.) has been reporting snow this morning!
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871. stormybil
11:32 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
can someone please post where this tropical wave is suppose to be coming from that everyone is talking about . that suppose to arrive on tuesday in fla . thanks
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870. drusierDMD
11:05 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
i wonder how the wave action/surge is effecting Dubai's man made islands?
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869. RL3AO
3:58 AM CDT on June 25, 2007
03B has redeveloped in the Arabian sea and is expected to strengthen to 55kts and make landfall in Southern Iran as a moderate tropical storm.


1
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868. eye
6:06 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
banned from Wally World, oh my!


btw, yall know that at least 165 homes have been destroyed by a fire at Lake Tahoe? 500 more threatened....not that big of a fire, but the 25-35mph made it spread really fast.
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867. N3EG
10:53 PM PDT on June 24, 2007
I suggest that anybody who thinks in any way that conditions right now are unusually hostile read this blog

Oh, you're talking about the picture - not the comments by Stormtop. I get it now...
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866. Skyepony (Mod)
5:03 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
It sounded like we're expecting nothing more than an inverted lower trough from the West Atlantic being inhanced by an upper trough from the east gulf. PWATs 2"+, perhaps heavy rainfall...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36161
865. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:07 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
latest sat obser indicate that a poss signifcate event is about to develope atlantic north of bahamahas off north fla and ga. coasts cyclonegenis poss as weather systems move off mid atlantic and a 2nd system along se gulf coasts not too sure but this may develope into something more like winter type cyclone but thats kind of late in the year but weather has been unusal this year with lots of cyclones hanging along the coasts who knows maybe we will have a backward cane .
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864. StoryOfTheCane
4:09 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
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863. CrazyC83
3:34 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
So far the strongest tornado from last night is an F3, not quite at the level of the Elie F4 but close. If extrapolated onto the EF scale, the winds were likely about 150-160 mph with yesterday's biggest tornado and about 190 mph in Elie.
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862. NorthxCakalaky
3:32 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
Flowing water entered a home.


wow
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861. NorthxCakalaky
3:30 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
No deaths reported but a couple rescues.
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859. NorthxCakalaky
3:29 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
Water rescues were reported in the north-west mountains in north carolina.
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858. louastu
3:21 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
Posted By: NorthxCakalaky at 3:17 AM GMT on June 25, 2007.

Forcaster put a 30% chance of a isolated thunderstorm. Hmm? 8 inches of rain,major flooding,hail as big as nickles,power outS,


Well nobody's perfect... LOL
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857. NorthxCakalaky
3:20 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
Charlote had 8000 customers in the dark.
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856. NorthxCakalaky
3:15 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
Forcaster put a 30% chance of a isolated thunderstorm. Hmm? 8 inches of rain,major flooding,hail as big as nickles,power outS,
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855. NorthxCakalaky
3:13 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
Link


Rain fall totals..I dont think we had 12 inches but it showes that..I think that area had 7-8inches.
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854. sporteguy03
3:13 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
Where is Stormkat I had a question for him
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853. NorthxCakalaky
3:11 AM GMT on June 25, 2007



Local Storm Report


06/24/2007 0500 PM

1 miles SW of Baldwin, Ashe County.

Flash flood, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue.


Near intersection of Route 194 and laural creek Road
flash flooding inundated a home. The lone occupant was
rescued from the residence. The basement of the home was
completely flooded.




06/24/2007 0515 PM

2 miles se of Trout, Ashe County.

Flash flood, reported by law enforcement.


Three tops Road washed out. Flowing water entered a home.
The lone occupant was rescued from the residence.





06/24/2007 0515 PM

2 miles se of Trout, Ashe County.

Flash flood, reported by law enforcement.


Three tops Road washed out





06/24/2007 0504 PM

Baldwin, Ashe County.

Hail e0.75 inch, reported by public
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852. sporteguy03
3:10 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
I'm around JP keeping an eye on the fires
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851. NorthxCakalaky
3:07 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
No power for hours due to 60 mph winds and blinding rain and hail and flooding.THEN my brother got in trouble with the law and got banned from Walmart and i was there but clean.
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850. NorthxCakalaky
3:06 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
You dont know what my day was like.
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849. weatherbro
10:06 PM GMT on June 24, 2007
what was florida's driest rainy season on record?
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846. Patrap
9:31 PM CDT on June 24, 2007
ISS sighting PASS
Sun Jun 24/ 9:42 PM CST
<2 minutes

29degrees Max Elevation
17degrees above W 28degrees above SW
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125704
844. southbeachdude
2:17 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
so what's the deal with the tropical wave coming to FL on Wednesday or Thursday or this week???
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838. ryang
10:06 PM AST on June 24, 2007
Thanks Caster, i got it.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
835. Skyepony (Mod)
1:55 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
JFL~ That video is incrediable..& in Canada.

Texas~Nice to meet ya too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36161
833. Jedkins
2:02 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
Texas you live WAYYY up in north minnesota? Why is your name texascanecaster then lol?


Is it a temporary residence or what?
831. louastu
2:01 AM GMT on June 25, 2007
Scroll to the top of the page and look on the left side of your screen. It should say in red letters that you have mail.
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827. ryang
9:57 PM AST on June 24, 2007
Caster, you have mail.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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