Western Caribbean disturbance could bring heavy rains to Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on June 15, 2007

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An area of disturbed weather (94L) with heavy thunderstorm activity has developed in the western Caribbean between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. This disturbance has the potential to form into a tropical depression by Sunday as it drifts northwards into the Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear over the northwest Caribbean is a not-so-healthy-for-development 20-25 knots, but is forecast to decrease somewhat over the next 48 hours. There is some dry air over the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico, but water vapor satellite loops show that the thunderstorm activity starting to fire up in association with the disturbance is steadily moistening the atmosphere. However, surface pressures are rising over the region, and thus any development is going to be slow to occur. The 7:21am EDT QuikSCAT satellite wind map show no surface circulation, and neither do satellite loops. Top winds from QuikSCAT were in the 20-30 mph range. However, winds were only about 15 mph at the Yucatan Basin buoy, and this is more representative of the winds associated with the disturbance.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the western Caribbean disturbance.


Figure 2. Early model tracks for the western Caribbean disturbance.

None of the computer models forecast that this system will become a tropical storm, but the GFS model is indicating that an extratropical storm will form from this system early next week once it moves over Florida. The situation looks similar to what happened with Tropical Storm Barry, and we could get a hybrid subtropical storm forming in the Gulf on Saturday or Sunday, as the system passes over some very deep warm waters associated with the "Loop Current" that feed the Gulf Stream. There will be a lot of wind shear (20-40 knots) over the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days, which should prevent any system that forms from having winds stonger than about 60 mph. A tropical, subtropical or extratropical storm with winds topping out at 50 mph is 20% probable, though, and Florida may be the beneficiary of another good rain-making storm.

A Hurricane Hunter flight was scheduled to visit the system at 2pm EDT this afternoon, but has been canceled. The flight has not been re-scheduled for Saturday. I'll have an update on this system this afternoon, and will include my rest of June outlook for hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

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403. StormHype
7:57 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
Pressures are dropping in the caymans? Are the seas 'turning a funny color' there too? Stormpetrol and Kman will be needing a change of panties soon if that's the case. ;-)
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1200
402. hurricane23
7:54 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
000
FXUS62 KMFL 151827
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...BIG DIFFERENCES IN 12Z MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN DECISION
IN GOING CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE RUN. THE GFS NOW HAS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING ACROSS S FLA ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NE INTO THE BAHAMAS BY
SUNDAY. EITHER SCENARIO HAS POPS ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE. THIS ANOTHER REASON TO GO WITH THE ENSEMBLE. WHEREAS
THE GFS SHOWS THIS SFC LOW, THE NAM HOWEVER SHOWS A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BUILDING INTO THE SE GOFMEX WHICH PUSHES THE TROPICAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES
FARTHER AWAY INTO THE N ATLANTIC. WITH THE GFS JUST SHOWING THIS
LOW IN ITS LATEST RUN, HAVE OPTED TO IGNORE THAT IN THE WIND
FIELD. SO IT REALLY DEPENDS ON HOW THIS ALL TRANSPIRES AS TO HOW
MUCH PRECIP S FLA DEVELOPS. AT ANY RATE, ALL MODELS SHOW A DRYING
TREND TO ENSUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13632
399. mahep1911
7:44 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
SJ Please go look at this link and zoom in on the mass of clouds. If you watch close enough you will see rotation and that my friend is what ever one is talking about.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 793
398. StormJunkie
7:44 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
I have 77, and after looking at WV, visable, IR from several sights at several zoom levels, it looks like the area that has the most potential to truly develop is W of the convection under Cuba not the convection under Cuba. I want to see the next model runs and surface map, but you can not very well argue the surface maps or the first 12hrs or so of the model runs. They really have a lot more data available then we do.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15705
397. Drakoen
7:44 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
yea the low is in the NW Caribbean
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
395. Drakoen
7:43 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
winds in cozumel are from the N.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
394. CaneAddict17
7:41 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
new blog
Member Since: August 31, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 156
393. Thundercloud01221991
7:41 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
thanks
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
392. StormJunkie
7:41 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
Posted By: stormchaser77 at 7:38 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.
thundercloud01221991 .... The Last one most likely will
be right on. I totally Agree.


Y'all look at the surface map. The low is way west of that area.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15705
391. Drakoen
7:40 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
i thought daytime heating only affects systems over land...
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
388. StormJunkie
7:39 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
I was just throwing that out there JF, I am on board with your thinking, but it is just hard to identify exactly what is going on over there right now.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15705
387. TexasRiverRat
7:38 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
It seems to be exploding, but that may be due to day time heating, thus it might not be very tropical. They usually grow at night.
386. quakeman55
7:38 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
Is it starting to spin now?
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
384. StormJunkie
7:37 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
77, you are in the wrong area. That area S of Cuba will get pulled N and out to sea rapidly. The area of interest, is over by the Yuc and does not look impressive at all right now. Look at the latest surface map.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15705
383. Drakoen
7:37 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
I think this is the area JF is talking about we will have to see what happens. The convection needs to persist.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
382. TexasRiverRat
7:37 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
We foks here in TEXAS dont need no rain. Hope Fla gets some.
381. IceSlater
7:35 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
That 3mb pressure drop is 1 1/2 hrs old... It could be even more by now.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 417
379. Drakoen
7:35 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
Posted By: stormchaser77 at 7:32 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Pressures could not be rising with such
Intense Cloud Tops Building.

they are dropping somewhat.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
378. StormJunkie
7:34 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
TC, it is unlikely that a system will form that far E out of this. That area will get pulled out to sea over the next 24hrs or so.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15705
377. TheRingo
7:33 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
that blob in the bahamas is the ull that pulled away, imo. It will probably keep going with the jet that's moving north.
376. Drakoen
7:33 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
i agree with stormjunkie. We need to see the pressure contually drop into the over night hours.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
373. Thundercloud01221991
7:31 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
3rd time is a charm

Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
372. stormybil
7:31 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
can you guys checkout the blob by the bahammas and fill us in it too is lokking good at this hour any ideas if it forms where will it go and how will it effect 94l ?
371. StormJunkie
7:30 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
And maybe a little N JF? Almost on the Yucatan coast? I sure wish the navy imagery did not jump around so much.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15705
370. StormJunkie
7:29 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
Pressure has been coming up or steady most of the day at that buoy most of the day. In the last our it has dropped a little, but pressures normally drop in the afternoon anyway. Not to mention I think the area JF is looking at which is further away from this buoy is where anything would form if it did.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15705
369. Drakoen
7:29 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
yea theringo i noticed that as well but i wanted to be sure first before saying anything.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
368. SWFLdrob
7:28 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
Posted By: stormybil at 7:23 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

so if the pressure is falling that means its trying to get its act together and is getting stronger right ??


need to see what the pressure does in the next few hours before making any conclusions at this point. A series of pressure drops in the area would suggest the system is getting its act together, though.
366. TheRingo
7:27 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
seeing good convergence
and divergence.
365. ricderr
7:27 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
psst....tc..that was sarcasm..they're stretching the page........
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21429
364. Business
7:26 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
i want more rain! ultra high performance summer tires FTW :D
363. Thundercloud01221991
7:26 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
Click and drag them to the address bar they should be larger
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
362. Drakoen
7:26 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
JFlorida, the pressure is dropping at the buoy. Thundercloud, but it just South of the Lake and i think you have it.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
361. ricderr
7:25 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
hey guys........tose last two pics...kind of small...mind making them just a tad bigger please
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21429
360. Drakoen
7:24 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
Posted By: stormybil at 7:23 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

so if the pressure is falling that means its trying to get its act together and is getting stronger right ?? and dark yes i go with your track but how strong you think it going to get . ?


hard to tell at this point. Pressure falling means that there is something going on at the Surface. However in order for me to believe this sytem is anything i need to see the convection persist throughout the night hours.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
359. Thundercloud01221991
7:24 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
ignore wind speeds
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
356. Thundercloud01221991
7:23 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
How about this one

Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
355. Drakoen
7:23 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29919
354. stormybil
7:23 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
so if the pressure is falling that means its trying to get its act together and is getting stronger right ?? and dark yes i go with your track but how strong you think it going to get before it get to so fla . ?
353. pottery2
7:22 PM GMT on June 15, 2007
Drakoen, re: some earlier posts - It does not matter , to most people, whether you are a qualified Met or not. Knowlege does not only come from having a degree . I have been a potter for 20 years with no " formal " training at all. I know more about clay than many degreed potters I meet. You keep interested in what you do, you will be fine. In the meantime, ignore the froth.......

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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