Quiet tropics; aftermath of Gonu

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:34 PM GMT on June 11, 2007

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The tropical Atlantic continues to be quiet, which is typical for this time of year. Wind shear across the June breeding grounds for June tropical systems--the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Bahamian waters--is expected to remain high this week, which should discourage any tropical storms from forming. None of the computer models are forecasting any tropical development this week. Unless there's a significant change, I won't discuss the tropics until Friday, when I'll post my bi-monthly Atlantic hurricane season outlook.

Tropical Cyclone Gonu
While I was away on vacation last week, a rather remarkable Category 5 cyclone developed in the Arabian Sea and struck Oman and Iran. Gonu is the first Category 4 or higher storm recorded in the Arabian Sea since the satellite era began in 1970. The last significant tropical cyclone to affect Oman was in 1890, when a storm hit the Gulf of Oman coast and Muscat, killing 700 people. Lesser cyclones affected the area in 1945 and 1977. The View From the Surface blog has an excellent summary of the aftermath of Gonu.


Figure 1. Rainfall estimates from NASA's TRMM satellite for the 8-day period May 31-June 7, 2007. Some regions of Oman and Iran received 200 mm (8 inches) of rain from the storm, equal to double their average annual rainfall. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Jeff Masters

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1092. emagirl
1:50 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
good morning everyone
1091. thelmores
1:45 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
new blog!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1090. weathers4me
1:44 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
If anything does develop in the Carribbean won't it sheared apart? I'm I missing something?
Member Since: May 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
1088. PensacolaDoug
1:33 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
It rained all around Pensacola yesterday.....Except where I am...
West-side down on Bayou Grande. Saw porpoise playing in the bayou yesterday while the "Blues" were practicing. On another note, anyone ever notice how clear the bays and bayous get when there is hardly any rain? The area waterwayss here are about as clear as they ever get...."Blues" just took off for their morning practice, guess I'll go watch them. Have a good day everybody.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 661
1087. TheCaneWhisperer
1:32 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
1086. cchsweatherman
1:30 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Here is the entire forecast discussion. it will be worse than yesterday and I can't imagine how much worse it can get.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
421 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY IS LOCATED FROM A VERO
BEACH TO TAMPA LINE. BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SHOWING THIS BOUNDARY FAIRLY WELL. THIS FRONT IS THE RESULT OF
CONTINUED DIGGING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON AND WILL TEMPORARILY STALL. MODELS
SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR SFC TO H5, H5 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C,
DECENT H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF A 250 MB JET. ADD IN THE FACT THAT THE WET BULB ZERO
WILL BE AROUND 11000 FT, THE WEATHER TODAY AND EARLY EVENING WILL
BE QUITE ACTIVE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WHICH
INCLUDES LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH, PENNY OR LARGER SIZED HAIL
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE BOUNDARIES
INTERSECT. MEAN FLOW WILL BE TO THE ESE AND THE STORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING EAST OF
MIAMI DADE COUNTY. HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO 50-60% OVER THE AREA
TODAY ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY
OCCUR THURSDAY BUT TO A MUCH LESSER DEGREE. THE FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL START MOVING NORTHWARD THURSDAY (EARLIER THAN EXPECTED) AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FILLS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM. BUT MEAN
LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY. PWAT`S WILL BE WELL ABOVE 2"
LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SO BOTH DAYS LOOK FAIRLY WET. PWAT`S
LOWER AGAIN TO LESS THAN 2" BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH LOWERED
POPS TO LOW CHANCE.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1085. thelmores
1:29 PM GMT on June 13, 2007



think we have something brewing here! prime spot for this time of year! I would expect an invest out of this "witch's brew"!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
1084. hurricane23
1:27 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
A bit old but here is part of the discussion from 4am NWS out of miami.

MODELS
SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR SFC TO H5, H5 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C,
DECENT H5 HEIGHT FALLS AND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF A 250 MB JET. ADD IN THE FACT THAT THE WET BULB ZERO
WILL BE AROUND 11000 FT, THE WEATHER TODAY AND EARLY EVENING WILL
BE QUITE ACTIVE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WHICH
INCLUDES LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH, PENNY OR LARGER SIZED HAIL
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE BOUNDARIES
INTERSECT.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
1083. stoormfury
1:20 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Link
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2722
1082. stoormfury
1:15 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
the caribbean is getting active this morning
Link
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2722
1081. weathers4me
1:04 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Stay safe on the roads today S FL
Member Since: May 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 118
1080. Drakoen
12:59 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Good morning everyone.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
1078. hurricane23
12:57 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Good morning...

For folks in miami dade and broward counties if you have plans today get them done this morning because everything is setting up to be a wild afternoon.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
1077. cchsweatherman
12:53 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
South Florida should brace for an even worse round of severe weather today as we have the stationary boundary, the influx of deep tropical moisture from the south, and an upper level disturbance diving from GA south into FLA! May I say a few isolated tornadoes possible?! We got slammed yesterday. It looks like even the weather has started to pick up on the UFC craze and has been bare-naked chokeholding the Midwest with constant flooding! LOL
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1076. IKE
12:47 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
And the CMC shows a TD/TS making landfall in the eastern Florida panhandle next week...at the 144 hour mark..
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1075. nash28
12:44 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Actually, it was the CMC that called Barry correctly. The GFS was all over the road, and kept Barry as a weak low bringing it over S. FL.

Not trying to split hairs or anything.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
1074. Drakoen
12:44 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
good morning everyone. The tropics are still relatively quiet. I am guessing that everyone is talking about the flare up of cenvection in the northern Caribbean. I still don't expect muxh to come out of the Caribbean, at the most a weak surface low. The shear is still pretty high runninng about 30 kts. The shear tendency does show that the shear is dropping of somewhat which may allow something to spin up there. Still it is a very disorganized system and notice how the convective activity is spread across the northern Caribbean.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
1073. PBG00
12:39 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
scroll down to see what Pat said on the subject..Good stuff
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1072. weathermanwannabe
12:38 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Thanks and we'll see on the development; I would hazard a guess that while the GFS called Barry correctly (about a week in advance), that we will have to see (if it does come to pass then GFS would be the model to watch over the next few weeks)...
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
1071. IKE
12:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
The GFS has been persistent in bringing moisture into the northern and NE GOM early next week. Possible tropical low?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1070. setfree7
12:35 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Link
Came across this in our local newspaper this morning. I may have missed that y'all have already discussed this, but just in case you haven't seen the info, thought I would pass it along.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 281
1069. IKE
12:34 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Posted By: weathermanwannabe at 7:30 AM CDT on June 13, 2007.
Good Morning All...Much like yesterday, persistance in the NW Caribbean and models predicting some type of possible development in the next few days........Ike, if I read that GFS model correctly, does it spin up that possible system south of LA and then east into the Panhandle over the northen end of the Gulf? (BTW, while I live in Tally, I'm working in Bonifay for the next three days...Practically neighbors)..


Yes and yeah, you're close if you're in Bonifay. I'm 25 miles west in Defuniak Springs where it poured yesterday afternoon.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1068. PBG00
12:31 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
O.K. then..I feel better now!
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1067. weathermanwannabe
12:30 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Good Morning All...Much like yesterday, persistance in the NW Caribbean and models predicting some type of possible development in the next few days........Ike, if I read that GFS model correctly, does it spin up that possible system south of LA and then east into the Panhandle over the northen end of the Gulf? (BTW, while I live in Tally, I'm working in Bonifay for the next three days...Practically neighbors)..
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9402
1066. Patrap
12:30 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
0730....appt time.Later on guys and gals.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
1065. Patrap
12:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Ive read the story.Its full of inaccuracies.Like most AP stories on Meteorology and other tech talk.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
1064. kmanislander
12:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Well coffee time for me
BBL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1063. PBG00
12:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Link
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1062. PBG00
12:27 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Let me try that again
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1061. Patrap
12:27 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Thats the error anyway..10%.Quikscat is operational and cloudsat can do most of her obs too. Its the scatterometer thast they woory about losing. Its not irreplacable a follow on sat is in the planning phase. We wont be blind. SOme data will be unaccumalated. But its not what peple and the AP make the situ out to be.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
1060. PBG00
12:26 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
oops
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1059. IKE
12:26 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
The 2 buoys in the west/NW Caribbean...the pressures have fallen off in the last 24 hours.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1058. PBG00
12:24 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
They ran an article this morning on AOl about the severity of the situation..that other sattelites don't do as well and that the two day forecast would be off by 10% without it..
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1057. Patrap
12:24 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
ANytime PBG00
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
1056. IKE
12:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
That ULL dropping into north Florida appears to be moving SSE and should get kicked on out to sea.

And good morning everyone.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1055. Patrap
12:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
NW CArb is persistant .Thats one thing to note.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
1054. PBG00
12:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Hi Pat..just read your post..thanks for the link
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1053. Patrap
12:22 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
That isnt the plan..or the correct info.The Quikscat is only one tool of many.Gee..all this over a sat..LOL. Weve got 10 Brave Humans on orbit .And the concern is for 1 piece of DATA collecting hardware,LOL..Now thats a funny gesture or irony in a nut-shell.Emphasis on the nut..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
1052. PBG00
12:20 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
So no replacement for nine years? Is that a money thing> Does it take nine years to make and launch another one? Why weren't "we" notified earlier? I would think They have known it's number was coming up for a while now..There had to be someone who could scream fire and let people know..no?
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1051. kmanislander
12:20 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Good morning Pat

Looks like the NW Caribbean is trying to fire up a bit
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1050. Patrap
12:19 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Hey Kman,,IKE
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
1049. IKE
12:18 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Latest 06Z GFS model run...

Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1048. Patrap
12:18 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
NORTH ATLANTIC IMAGERY..scroll down for QUIKSCAT data

Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
1047. Patrap
12:18 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Thats all hype..mostly.Quikscat is performing Nominally.Plus Cloudsat and many other Satelittes give a great amount of Data.There are many follow on sats to come online in the coming Years. Quikscat isnt falling from the sky like a bucket of bolts. Its been a long lived sat with great staying Power.Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
1046. kmanislander
12:17 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
good morning all from the rainy Caymans. Surface pressure here is 1011 and further to our S it is 1009. Been raining all night
The Caribbean has low shear until about 16N but if conditions improve into the NW portion and the unsettled weather hangs around we could see some development nearer to the weekend. There is a ULL dropping down over Georgia that is already producing shear over Cuba

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1045. Srt4Man
12:16 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Posted By: PBG00 at 12:13 PM GMT on June 13, 2007.

How serious is the possibility of the quick stat failing. I have been reading all the hype on it. Would it be as deveastating as they say? And if so..why did they let this happen?


They Let this happen because "we" the public dont pay enough attention to our government, we also dont hold our government accountable either.

Social apathy(sp?) is the reason why there was nothing done about the aging satalite.
1044. PBG00
12:13 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
How serious is the possibility of the quick stat failing. I have been reading all the hype on it. Would it be as deveastating as they say? And if so..why did they let this happen?
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
1043. StormJunkie
12:13 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
Morning all.

G35 & Ike, I noticed that this morning. Just waiting to see if they stick with that trend over the next couple of days.

Back to work. y'all have a great day

Models, imagery, marine data, preparedness info and much more....Quick Links
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1042. underthunder
12:12 PM GMT on June 13, 2007
we have'nt had rain in a month...so if anybody want's to send their access...please do..
Member Since: August 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 96

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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