Katrina forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2005

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Slow-to-organize TD 12 (now Katrina) continues to look better on satellite imagery, with deep convection on the east side continuing to build. The upper level outflow has improved considerably today, and there does not appear to be any major shearing of the system happening. Water vapor imagery does show some dry air to the northwest of the storm, and this dry air is currently the main obstacle that has slowed Katrina's development this morning. The latest Hurricane Hunter report at 7:30am EDT found a not-too-impressive central pressure of 1007 mb, but a respectable 45 knots of wind at flight level (1500 feet). The Hurricane Hunters noted some low-level banding beginning to occur, and it is a very safe bet that this system will continue to intensify today.

The track of the storm will take it over Florida by Friday, all the computer models agree. The exact landfall point is unclear, since the depression is moving slowly and erratically, and may undergo a reorganization where the center relocates under the main area of convection later today. The models forecast a landfall intensity anywhere from 35 mph winds to 70 mph winds. The higher range is possible if the convection on the east side manages to overcome the dry air on the west side and wrap all the way around the system by Thursday morning. Let's call it a 30% chance Katrina will be a Category 1 hurricane by landfall on Friday.

Once over Florida, the GFS model forecasts that the system will stall and not move for several days. All of the other models disagree, and push the system into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday, where it has an excellent chance of intensifying into a hurricane. Since the GFS it the only model calling for this stall, it is more believable to assume that Katrina will push into the Gulf of Mexico and threaten the U.S. Gulf coast early next week.

Dr. Jeff Masters

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276. lefty420
5:30 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
think its just a patch of dry air inbetween the bands, will check though
275. icebear7
5:31 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Hey, Lefty, can i be Treasurer?


Gotta collect them club due$$$$

*LOL*
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274. lefty420
5:26 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
well not a fan club perse, a believer, i am not right all the time, my east africa wave hurt me lol, but i am usually pretty accurate as i use alotof data to determine whats going on and on more than one occassion i have stated hours befor the nhc says anything that something is happening. than i had alot of people say crap last night and i had to explain to them exactly what the nhc said after i said it. so once the nhc said it they believed. i told everyone she would not be a ts till 11am today based on knowledge of the cycles with in a system like this. i also noted the re-orginisation of the storm based on microwave imagery and stated a 6-12 hr lull, durring that lull they could barley frin windspeeds aboue 25 kts at flight level. just been right here lately cause i have no bias where she goes or does and base my statements on all availible data
273. MandyFSU
5:29 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Well, I'm as deep south as they get- but I do like how they put "eh" on the end of everything- just one of those things I guess. Well... I'll make sure to do a grocery run this weekend then- when does everyone think the rain will start to set in up here?
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
272. Halon056
5:27 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Oh Brother! there goes the neighborhood LOL!
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
271. oriondarkwood
1:25 PM EDT on August 24, 2005
MandyFSU,

Aye lassie, Aye (well I fiqured if you putting in a Canadian eh I can do the Scottish thing) (LOL)

BTW for the record I lived in Toronto Ontario for a couple of years and yes they are bad for saying "eh"
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
270. evolution
1:26 PM EDT on August 24, 2005
someone tell me this is not an eye forming here.

Link

also shows up on the tropical floater infrared.

if it is, i certainly has relocated to the north.

maybe that's just a spot of dry air though?
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269. MandyFSU
5:26 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
I'm a member of EVERYONE's fan club. Everyone here has great opinions- I even like hearing what StormTop has to say. ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
268. lefty420
5:22 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
ok i think i have a cenetr location but the is preliminary will check it against the new microwave data and recon data when it comes in.

about 25n and 77w

yeah not much more topredict but track and that is the hardest to tie down, i think a strong cat1 at the initial landfall and depending on speed a strong cat 2 on the second landfall, but thats all tied in to speed, faster track would lessen interraction with land but give less time for the system to re strengthen, slower track might really hurt the system over florida but would give her time to blow up over the gulf. we will have to watch and see how stronmg she gets befor the intial landfall
267. icebear7
5:21 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Cosmic E

sorry i couldn't find anything more detailed.... i will keep looking... www.dogpile.com is a good search engine, but a lot of the sites that come up in the search are giving the same PDF as the site i first found.... i'm sure there's one out there with more detail spesific to Florida....
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266. oriondarkwood
1:21 PM EDT on August 24, 2005
HillsboroughBay,

I did but I am not seeing them.
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
265. MandyFSU
5:23 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Orion: But either way, Tally's gonna get some nasty weather come about Wednesday, eh?
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
264. Halon056
5:23 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
OH NO! It looks like lefty has developed a fan club LOL :)
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
263. mybahamas
1:19 PM EDT on August 24, 2005
Hiya from Nassau :)
Thankfully, the storm is tracking just east of us, with almost all the winds and rain on the eastern side. I hope it keeps that way and the weather on the backend isn't too bad. I just wish all my family and friends in Florida the best with this one. Don't flood too much, my sis in North Miami Beach. :)
262. oriondarkwood
1:20 PM EDT on August 24, 2005
MandyFSU,

Thanks, As far as the second landfall as a Cat2 its like I said mainly because the conditions are ripe, however I predict Katrina going up the west coast of flordia and never making it full out to sea
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
261. MandyFSU
5:21 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Lefty- you're on a streak with your predictions... what's next?
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
260. 147257
05:18 PM GMT op 24 Augustus, 2005
ok we will see it at 2 pm and ladoblelady everyone got the right to say something even its stupid in youre eyes
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
259. STORMTOP
5:16 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
la lady its a mistake it was jeff baskin i was talking to..i been knowing jeff for 15 years..ok we have that cleared up...i will tell you jeff and bob are never on the same page when it comes to hurricanes ,,i also no krystal..i hope i cleared that up ....
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258. lefty420
5:16 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
probly are. i told everyone yesterday and this morning, she was re-orginising and i told weather guy he would wake up to a classic look ts. after the 6-12 hr lull whihc occured late last night u would see a steady intesification until landfall. everything i said has happened word for word
257. STORMTOP
5:11 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
lefty i am sure they will up the winds to 60 mph in the next advisory..im getting reports from ham operators that winds are over gale force in gusts...we will have to see..
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256. LADobeLady
5:07 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Stormtop-Ignoring you own truth as usual I see. How typical.

Which voice is right?

Posted By: STORMTOP at 3:19 PM GMT on August 24, 2005.
LADY YOU MUST BE DRINKING I NEVER SAID BREAK WAS MY BUDDY HE IS AND IDIOT..ASK THE NHC WHAT THEY THINK ABOUT HIM..


Posted By: STORMTOP at 2:03 AM GMT on August 20, 2005.
hawk im back now the 1200mb i got from the data i received this afternoon fron my buddy in new orleans...bob breck told me how strong the high will be and what the trough will do to the high..he did say new orleans had nothing to worry about it was going to hit panhandle if it came in the gulf...im sorry for leaving so fast hawk i had to run and important errand...
Report As: Obscene | Spam
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255. palmbeacher
5:10 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Mandy I agree I would rather go to the beach! The good thing here is that we are very dry and the ground should soak up alot of rain, but it doesn't take much for it to flood.
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254. HillsboroughBay
1:12 PM EDT on August 24, 2005
Tracking map anyone?
Link
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253. weatherguy03
5:07 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Oh well they are both here now. I will catch you guys later. I've had enough of these two for oneday...Look for my new blog if you are a Florida resident and want a nice discussion on Katrina..See ya later.
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252. MandyFSU
5:10 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Halon: not a bad idea! My bosses tend to play it pretty safe and if it looks like we're going to get either a lot of wind or a lot of rain or both, they'll close things down. Ideally, they'd close down and then it'd veer off and go to Mexico but oops... we've already closed the office.

I have a vivid imagination, can you tell? :-)
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
251. 147257
05:10 PM GMT op 24 Augustus, 2005
stormtop what are you suggesting?
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
250. 147257
05:09 PM GMT op 24 Augustus, 2005
dont forget the other wave that almost developing in TD 13 at 17 North, 39 west
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
249. MandyFSU
5:08 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Palmbeacher: I'd say you're lucky, but I'd rather you get out of work so you can go to the beach- not batten down the hatches! My #1 concern is if it strengthens to a strong Cat 2 or minimal Cat 3 and comes in between Alligator Point & St. Marks. It would mean some serious wind & rain here. I think we'd lose more trees since the ground is already so saturated. Any other thoughts?
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
248. Halon056
5:07 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Mandy at this point ya might as well call in sick LOL
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
247. STORMTOP
5:06 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
0-
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246. lefty420
5:06 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
remeebr what i said about track, gotta watch it for 3 hrs to determine the motion, so it may apeear to be moving nw or even west but at such a slow rate they move very erraticlly, i just up again so in a lil bit i should have alot more info
245. weatherboyfsu
5:04 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
If anyone wants a close up of this storm....just go to the colorado state link and hit the picture of katrina....its a nice 1km visible loop.....katrina is looking better and better
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244. HillsboroughBay
1:04 PM EDT on August 24, 2005
Someone wanted depths on the east Coast near the Bahamas?

I just uploaded a chart of the area on my blog.

I is the only item on my blog.

Hope it helps.

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243. palmbeacher
5:07 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Mandy it looks like I get out of work tomorrow and Friday.
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242. LADobeLady
5:04 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Cosmic

I was just in my backyard and there are now visable ant mounds. They weren't there yesterday. I don't know if it means anything or not...

You can get a good printable tracking map on the NHC site.
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241. MandyFSU
5:05 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Honest opinion, folks: What are the odds I'll get out of work on Wednesday next week? ;-)
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
240. STORMTOP
5:05 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
i totally agree lefty..
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239. lefty420
5:03 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
the latest gfdl has a double fl landfall and a strong cat when she makes landfall in the panhandle.
238. Halon056
5:03 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
try this Link then go to Tropical Cyclogenesis Model Output
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349
237. palmbeacher
5:03 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
They are talking about closing schools already for tomorrow. I was thinking Friday not tomorrow.
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236. STORMTOP
5:00 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
lefty this storm it looks like to me has already turned nw and the high is starting to take over ...what do you see?
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235. weatherboyfsu
5:01 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Katrina is looking better and better....looks like florida is going to get the double whammy....west palm beach and then the panhandle......
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234. lefty420
5:00 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
well you have to look at why the gfs is moving her north and not the other models and thats the fact that the gfs refuses to fill in the weakness. so if she turns west she will cross flirda and probly pick up speed with time. i am totally diregarding the gfs, just like with irene when she kept dissipatring her over and over again even after she was a hurricane. i figured by today either the models would line up close to her or the gfs would line up with the other models. since this is not happening you have to discount it
233. Valence
5:02 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Cosmic-

You may want to try the websites for your local newspaper or TV stations...they usually have more centralized stuff.

JV
232. sgizzy0207
5:01 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
I'm crusing Saturday from Canaveral to Key West-Belize-Cozumel. What do you experts think of the chances it will really happen?
231. SEFL
5:02 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Thank you Stormtop.
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230. MandyFSU
5:02 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Thanks, Halon, but it didn't work- said the webpage was unavailable... maybe it's on overload. I'll try it again in a few. :-(
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
229. Halon056
5:00 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Wouldnt hurt my feelings none if this thing made a left turn and went to Texas......LOL
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228. CosmicEvents
5:00 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
IceBear...thank you.....but I was looking for something a little more detailed for South Florida.
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227. STORMTOP
4:58 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
lol storm if you want to look at he models be my guess...im just telling you the enviroment around the storm and the things that are changing in the path of the storm is what you need to concentrate on storm...
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226. Halon056
4:59 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Mandy here is a link with multiple models Link
Member Since: July 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 349

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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