Katrina forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2005

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Slow-to-organize TD 12 (now Katrina) continues to look better on satellite imagery, with deep convection on the east side continuing to build. The upper level outflow has improved considerably today, and there does not appear to be any major shearing of the system happening. Water vapor imagery does show some dry air to the northwest of the storm, and this dry air is currently the main obstacle that has slowed Katrina's development this morning. The latest Hurricane Hunter report at 7:30am EDT found a not-too-impressive central pressure of 1007 mb, but a respectable 45 knots of wind at flight level (1500 feet). The Hurricane Hunters noted some low-level banding beginning to occur, and it is a very safe bet that this system will continue to intensify today.

The track of the storm will take it over Florida by Friday, all the computer models agree. The exact landfall point is unclear, since the depression is moving slowly and erratically, and may undergo a reorganization where the center relocates under the main area of convection later today. The models forecast a landfall intensity anywhere from 35 mph winds to 70 mph winds. The higher range is possible if the convection on the east side manages to overcome the dry air on the west side and wrap all the way around the system by Thursday morning. Let's call it a 30% chance Katrina will be a Category 1 hurricane by landfall on Friday.

Once over Florida, the GFS model forecasts that the system will stall and not move for several days. All of the other models disagree, and push the system into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday, where it has an excellent chance of intensifying into a hurricane. Since the GFS it the only model calling for this stall, it is more believable to assume that Katrina will push into the Gulf of Mexico and threaten the U.S. Gulf coast early next week.

Dr. Jeff Masters

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576. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:16 PM GMT on October 12, 2011
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
575. leftyy420
1:13 AM GMT on August 25, 2005
well she is moving west right now and that is her forcast track. all this based on the miami radar
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
574. wxgssr
11:44 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Anybody got a link to Nassau radar?
573. wxgssr
11:43 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
The ridge over the SE...its ridging eastward to Katrina's north. She will be blocked from going in that direction. Regional(or larger) view sat loops depict it occuring as I type.
572. rxse7en
11:38 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
I just do not see this, now massive storm kick directly West anytime soon. What are the steering elements that are in place to do so?
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
571. wxgssr
11:36 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
np. It also looks as if the steering flow is is becoming easterly, some one alluded to that earlier. A wider angle IR view (and WV for that matter) shows the ridge over the SE gaining influence over the track.
570. Gatorboy
11:28 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
thanks wxgssr for the info
569. Gatorboy
11:26 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
hey but the storm looks like a hurricane from the satieltte
568. wxgssr
11:21 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
It does at first glance, especially since the pass only gets the west half of Katrina. If you look at a 24 hr WV loop...you can see how there was a LOT of dry air to the West and NW...some of which got pulled into the storm's circulation. THe environemnt surrounding Katrina is much moister now in its entirety, and katrina herself is partially responsible for this as she advects moisture around her circulation. The dry pocket is a remnant of a much larger dry air intrusion. That carrib close up vis loop really shows some convection firing along the E semi circle of the circulation.
567. Gatorboy
11:16 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
oh ok it looks like an eye
566. wxgssr
11:13 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
53rd recon, that is the dry air "pocket" that has been getting mixed into the storm all day. Look at a 24 hr loop. It is certainly not an eye.
565. Gatorboy
11:03 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
so yall see that little eye formin
564. lefty420
11:01 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
lol
563. disasterdude
10:47 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Relax Lefty, I think most of us appreciate your insight.
562. lefty420
10:47 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
YEAH THATS WHAT MICROWAVE DATA IS FOR. WHAT SOMEONE WAS CALLING THE EYE WAS NOWTHWEST OF THAT
561. whitewabit (Mod)
10:46 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
MRJ76
do you have a homepage link for the vis link you provided
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 364 Comments: 31535
560. 53rdWeatherRECON
10:44 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Microwave Image Shows EYE. This can't be a "fake" eye feature. Link
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
559. CosmicEvents
10:41 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
My Miami radar is working fine. Have you tried clearing your cache. If you're like me you've probably looked at so much radar that your computer's temporary memory might be full.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5606
556. rxse7en
10:39 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Good luck to everyone in S. FL tonight. :D

I almost want this thing to recurve back to Jax just so the Panhandle people catch a break.

B
Member Since: August 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 530
553. OneDay
10:36 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Okay, maybe not that disinterested....I've just listened to StormTop since he so factually stated that Emily would hit the TX/LA border after she crossed the Yucatan. His predictions since then have not improved. He simply states the most extreme and catastrophic possibility and attempts to make it sound official. I wouldn't be surprised if Lefty and Stormtop are the same person, as Lefty is riding his "coattails" and uses the same writing style and mannerisms.
Member Since: July 13, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 931
552. weatherboyfsu
10:35 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
yeah...the radar is working for me...miami site was working fine
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
551. caneforecaster
10:34 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
is the long-range radar working for anybody else? Mine says it's expired.
550. weatherboyfsu
10:32 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
It will be interesting to see what happens tonight....midnight to 4am....thats when these storms can kick it up......shear is at its lowest
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
549. caneforecaster
10:31 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
The latest GFS has it hitting NC.....lol
548. weatherboyfsu
10:29 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
its pretty much like the NHC has it going across florida....out into the Gulf and back into Florida again...we had 4 landfalls last year and this will make 2 landfalls.....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
547. MrJ76
10:29 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Good visible loop from the Bahamas.. Higher level clouds are starting to build up.. although not much around the center.

Visible Sat
546. icebear7
10:29 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Hey, One-A-Day...uh, if you are disinterested, why bother to post?
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
545. disasterdude
10:28 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Getting a little testy in here. I find all the posts to be both interesting and a bit comical. Does anyone think that Kat has definately made a jog to the west other than me?
544. raindancer
10:28 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
The "false eye" is filling now. In fact, a dramatic burst of convection appears to be occuring near or over the storm's center. Could this be our intensification in the making?
Member Since: September 14, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 79
543. icebear7
10:27 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Rather interesting stuff guys.... i wouldn't have expected the storm to do a doubleplay on landfall.. will be cool to watch the discussion and the storm to see how close everyone's calls get :)
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
542. weatherboyfsu
10:27 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
BYE BYE....Oneday....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
541. lefty420
10:26 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
sorry i am playing xbox as well as read people talking crap about me
540. OneDay
10:25 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Lefty....you cannot type. Stormtop....you are an idiot.

(from a disinterested third party)
Member Since: July 13, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 931
539. lefty420
10:24 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
i am one person one screen name
538. weatherboyfsu
10:24 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
hey theres turtle..what up...
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
537. icebear7
10:23 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
STORMTOP, I OFFICIALLY RENAME YOU "CAPS LOCK BOY"


(CLB for short)

eeeeesh....


lmao
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
536. weatherboyfsu
10:22 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Just remember where your at .....on a weather blog, not on a interconnected chat room with the national hurricane center........If you keep things in perspective, you will be alright.....LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
535. lefty420
10:22 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
i ma one person with one name. stop the lying right now
534. turtlehurricane
10:21 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
i hav updated my south florida blog, i will update conditions in broward county throughout the night and until the storm is gone
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
533. Flyairbird
10:20 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Max mayfield from NHC was just on local News, and stated
at least a major rain event 15-20 inches of rain, and he asked his wife to take out the shutters and place them near the windows.........LOL That means to me anyway, they still arent at least 80% confident in their intensity forecasts
anyway. Im in Ft. Lauderdale and ya its gonna be a bumpy ride, more powerwise...FPL just bandaided crap from last year and my power was out for 6 days after Francis.
Nice breezes so far here, and the most outer edge has arrived. The Bus System will shut down at Noon Tommorrow,
so obviously they feel this is serious. Cosmic's comments are very appropriate. Some of the posters can play games but I take it serious. Please If you really have multiple blog names to match multiple personalities, please stop and be serious, Im all full up on crazy down here as the storm approaches....Thank You
Member Since: August 23, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 285
532. lefty420
10:20 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
for the last time i am not stormt or any otehr alias. get that straight right now
531. hazmat
10:18 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Lefty..thanx for the acknowledgement although I wish it wasn't so... looks like one of my landfall probs will pan out as well.Being an Andrew suvivour & thinking I'd escape this crap by moving inland...only to have 3 smack me last year...I have a keen intrest in watching, tracking, & trying to stay one step ahead.

The bold out & out lying, yelling, & wishcasting is ridiculous on here though...one thing to give an opinion...another to present it as fact & get bent if someone points out something different or that someones (no need to mention that name)prediction/wish/fantasy was wrong.
530. lefty420
10:17 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
maybe my range is 65-95 kts
529. RMcD
10:16 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Lefty

You say that Kat will rapidly instensify prior to 1st landfall. Do you think it will get over Cat 1 ?
Member Since: August 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
528. lefty420
10:15 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
dude i am not stomrt i am a totally diff person
527. CosmicEvents
10:11 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
ATTENTION NEWCOMERS to the blog. I'm sure many of you are concerned about the situation, as you should be. I urge all of you to follow basic hurricane preparedness, and not to panic. There's no telling for sure the intensity of this storm. You could experience anything from small tropical storm conditions to Cat 3 hurricane conditions. It's a fluid situation, but at present the NHC is calling for 60-80 MPH winds and lots of rain. There's also no telling exactly where the storm will hit. The NHC best estimate is Broward-Palm Beach county, but it could easily be 100 miles north or south of that. For now, just be prepared for loss of power. Have food. Don't put up shutters yet, but be prepared to do so late tonight or tomorrow morning.
MOST IMPORTANT....base your thoughts first on what the NHC says. Then read what Dr. Masters says. DO NOT base any decisions on what you read on this blog from Stormtop, Lefty, Sainthurrifan, and some others. They are all one and the same. That's right. Just ONE sad individual.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5606
526. lefty420
10:08 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
by ther way u were the most on about this system by far not disputing that

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.