Beneficial Barry

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:43 PM GMT on June 03, 2007

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Tropical Storm Barry is no more. Its remnants, now an extratropical storm with top winds of 40 mph over the ocean, are over the Mid-Atlantic coast, moving north-northeastward at 10 mph. Barry's remnants are expected to bring 1-3 inches of rain along the Mid-Atlantic and New England states through Monday. Was Barry really a tropical storm? I think it should have been named "Subtropical Storm Barry", and I hope NHC looks at the storm carefully to consider redesignating it after the season is over. Read Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog for more on this.

On Saturday, Barry brought up to seven inches of rain to drought-parched Florida, including an official 6.99" to West Palm Beach, 4.07" to Jacksonville, 5.91" to Savannah Georgia, and 3.17" to Tampa. Barry's rains probably provided tens of millions of dollars of benefit--quite the opposite of what we're used to saying about tropical storms! The fire area near the Florida-Georgia border got between 1-5 inches of rain from Barry, which has dampened but not extinguished the fires. Barry's rains also helped a bit with the Florida drought. However, Barry's rains were only 1-2 inches over central Florida, and they need about 30 inches of rain to pull them out of drought conditions. The summer rainy season typically begins in June, so there is hope that substantial rains are on the way. There doesn't appear to be much rain coming this week, though.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from Barry for northern Florida, estimated by radar.

June outlook
My outlook for the first two weeks of June was posted Friday. I don't see anything on the horizon for the remainder of this week--wind shear is expected to be high most of this week over the favored breeding grounds for June storms--the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. Wind shear may drop enough over the Western Caribbean early next week to allow tropical storm formation, but that is too far in the future to guess at the probability of such an event.

This will be my last "live" blog until Monday June 11; it's time to grab a week of summer vacation while the tropics are quiet. I'm off to see Niagara Falls and the "Grand Canyon of the East", New York's awesome Letchworth State Park. I hope to get some good waterfall rainbow shots to add to my wunderphotos. I've written two canned blogs that will be posted Tuesday and Friday while I'm gone:

Tuesday--We've all used NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook, which most often this time of year says, "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours." How accurate are these outlooks? I'll present some verification statistics from 2005 and 2006.

Friday--The NHC made it's best track forecasts ever last year. How good are their forecasts now? Which of the various computer models performed the best last year? I'll have a breakdown of the numbers.

Arrogance
Our Climate Change blog by Dr. Ricky Rood has an interesting commentary on what the chief of NASA said last week in an NPR interview when asked, "Do you have any doubt that climate change is a problem that mankind has to wrestle with?"

Strongest tropical cyclone ever seen in Arabian Sea
Follow The View From the Surface blog this week to track Tropical Cyclone Gonu. Gonu is the strongest storm ever seen in the Arabian Sea, and could cause big trouble for the Persian Gulf oil rigs and tankers.

Jeff Masters

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558. Patrap
10:03 AM CDT on June 04, 2007
GONU..false color..IR Link
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557. stormybil
3:05 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
yucatan blob looking better this hour again
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556. Patrap
10:03 AM CDT on June 04, 2007
T-storms training over me early today..Link
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555. moonlightcowboy
2:39 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
By Sunil K. Vaidya, Bureau Chief

The coastal area in the east of Oman will have to bear the triple fury of wind, wave and rain as Gonu strikes Oman anytime after Wednesday night. “As we speak the category for Gonu has been upgraded to 5.5 from 4.5,” he warned.


...they have a CAT 5.5? Whoa! What kind of scale do they use???
...I see what you mean Mstl; plus, those hot waters are in the NW track of this storm. It looks like they have some experience with TS's; but, not a MAJOR! Looks like they may be in for it!
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553. weatherbrat
2:27 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
When is the landfall expected for "Gonu"? And at what intensity?

I hope the people in Oman take the warnings there very seriously, or they will be suffering devastating results like everyone did along the Gulf Coast after Katrina.

I'm in Pensacola, and 2-1/2 years after Ivan, most of us are back to normal (whatever normal is). Some will never be normal again.

I pray for those in Gonu's path!
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552. stormybil
2:29 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
how often is the gfsx updated . will it see the new blob off the yucatan yet
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551. Drakoen
2:30 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
i mean't doesn't edit post. Gonu seems tobe developing nicely at 894 mb.
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549. Drakoen
2:28 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
The GFS does't seem to be showing any major development over the next week or so... maybe a few blobs to watch
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547. HIEXPRESS
2:23 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Posted By: MisterPerfect at 1:19 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.

Just who are you calling arrogant, Doctor Masters? Dr. Rood? NASA? NPR? Your blog has become more and more engulfed in your puny political divides.


Didn't you read the link in the post?

Your blood sugar is low. Have a Waffle. With plenty of syrup.
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546. MisterPerfect
2:25 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
---===** Just another way for Hugo Chavez to get richer and richer... **===---
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545. MisterPerfect
2:23 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
I don't remember the horn of Africa ever this threatened from decades past. Of course we aren't as familiar with the region but I wonder what have been the worst (intensity/damage) storms over the years to collide with the East African coast.
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544. Drakoen
2:22 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Posted By: sammywammybamy at 2:17 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.

Dear MichealStl,Jp,StormW,Drakeon,patrap and all the other weather experts.

I Just wanted to let you know that i learned alot from you guys.And i hope you stay posting on this blog all hurricane season.Great advice.....


lol weather experts...
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542. MisterPerfect
2:20 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Good Point with the gasoline hike because of this storm. The Lumburgh Survey will probably agree with this by day's end.
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539. moonlightcowboy
2:11 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Mstl...that's all we need another "gas booster!? Things get wrecked over there, prolly go to $10 gallon! sheeeesh...
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537. stormybil
2:08 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
if you want to check out the yucatan blob on this link Link
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535. moonlightcowboy
2:01 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Gonu, headed for Oman? Muscat, capital city of 600,00 plus? Could it trek into the Persian Gulf and bring rain to Iraq?

...odd to see the report that we watching three Atlantic waves and one in the Caribbean. Looks like we could be busier, and earlier than expected.
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534. stormybil
2:02 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
her you go Link ill be watching the one off the yucatan it is close to home and anything can pop up at anytime its looking good at this hour thought it might be somthing
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533. weathers4me
1:49 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
After seeing what Barry did to the tides directly south of where it made landfall albeit, it was an astroligic high tide, I will definately evacuate for anything stronger than a cat 1. There was a significant rise in the tides. I have lived in Tampa/Bradenton all my live and been through many close calls and true tropical storms (which this was not) But I can tell you this should be a wake up call for all the complacent ones who plan on sitting it out if you live in an evacuation zone..
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532. groundman
1:59 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Posted By: Hellsniper223 at 1:51 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:35 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.

stormybil not a ch wind shear is too high right now in the gulf


Hmmm.... I can't quite remember... But what exactly was it that we said about Barry..? and the whole... Development thing..?


I do believe you are right H223, LOL.

Can someone post the link for the long range 10 day GFSX?? Pleeze?
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530. Hellsniper223
1:49 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:35 PM GMT on June 04, 2007.

stormybil not a ch wind shear is too high right now in the gulf


Hmmm.... I can't quite remember... But what exactly was it that we said about Barry..? and the whole... Development thing..?
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529. thelmores
1:38 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
http://www.wistv.com/Global/story.asp?S=6606323

Coast Guard rescues sailboat crews off SC, NC

"CHARLESTON, S.C. (AP) - Five men on a 44-foot sailboat have been rescued when their vessel became disabled in 30-foot seas and 40 mile-an-hour winds off the South Carolina coast.

The Coast Guard says the Kintaro was about 275 miles east of Charleston Sunday. The crew was taken aboard the rescue vessel Puget and will be taken to Bermuda.

In a second rescue, three people on board the 34-foot sailboat Lotus were rescued 160 miles southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina.

Fifty-year-old Edward House of South Carolina was among those airlifted to the Wilmington, North Carolina, airport.

Coast Guard spokesman Petty Officer Kip Wadlow says all the boaters were in good condition."

I used to be in the Navy, was stationed onboard a guided missile cruiser, certainly much larger than a 44ft sailboat. We avoided weather like ths like the plague! What is with these idiot's who insist on putting themselves in harms way!!!

Just goes to show you, even remnants of a tropical storm are nothing to mess with at sea!
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528. Tazmanian
6:33 AM PDT on June 04, 2007
stormybil not a ch wind shear is too high right now in the gulf
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526. KoritheMan
1:25 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
It says that Gonu is at 150 on the tropical page, but it looks more like a 160-165 mph Category 5.
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524. stormybil
1:19 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
anyone just see jnew the blob that just merged off the yucatan . looks like it going into the gulf . any thoughts on this one is the gulf set up for development now thanks
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523. weathers4me
1:19 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Can you send a sat link for Gonu?
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522. MisterPerfect
1:11 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Arrogance
Our Climate Change blog by Dr. Ricky Rood has an interesting commentary on what the chief of NASA said last week in an NPR interview when asked, "Do you have any doubt that climate change is a problem that mankind has to wrestle with?"


Just who are you calling arrogant, Doctor Masters? Dr. Rood? NASA? NPR? Your blog has become more and more engulfed in your puny political divides.
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521. ForecasterColby
1:16 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Gonu is amazing on satellite right now.
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520. Hellsniper223
1:08 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
The African storm has a couple 40kt vectors in it...Y'all'd better prepare to evacuate.
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518. WPBHurricane05
8:57 AM EDT on June 04, 2007
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041058
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT MON JUN 4 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF ALVIN...IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH

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517. WPBHurricane05
8:38 AM EDT on June 04, 2007
Alvin trying to make a come back?? Link
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515. CycloneQld
11:46 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
Yeah the MIMIC should be worth the wait.

Hi Pat, I was referring to before that tropical storms going through very rapid intensification into cat 4+ systems seem to be occuring more regularly in recent years than in the past.

Just an observation that I've made, people can make their own conclusions as to what it means overall.

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514. StoryOfTheCane
11:58 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
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513. Patrap
6:42 AM CDT on June 04, 2007
Awaiting new MIMIC on Gonu..sure to be impressive
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512. Patrap
6:41 AM CDT on June 04, 2007
Blob isnt a met term Its a WU term.I Never use it. .
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511. Patrap
6:40 AM CDT on June 04, 2007
Barry Remnant Floater 2 Link
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510. CycloneQld
11:29 AM GMT on June 04, 2007
Gonu is the strongest ever storm recorded in the North Indian.

What we are seeing is new territory, a Cat 5 cyclone in the Arabian Sea.

Gonu is the first tropical superstorm of 2007, in a place nobody expected.

Makes 'blob' watching pale into insignificance really...
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509. Patrap
6:31 AM CDT on June 04, 2007
MAN its way early for a test ..its only 6:32 CST..LOL
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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