Beneficial Barry

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:43 PM GMT on June 03, 2007

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Tropical Storm Barry is no more. Its remnants, now an extratropical storm with top winds of 40 mph over the ocean, are over the Mid-Atlantic coast, moving north-northeastward at 10 mph. Barry's remnants are expected to bring 1-3 inches of rain along the Mid-Atlantic and New England states through Monday. Was Barry really a tropical storm? I think it should have been named "Subtropical Storm Barry", and I hope NHC looks at the storm carefully to consider redesignating it after the season is over. Read Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog for more on this.

On Saturday, Barry brought up to seven inches of rain to drought-parched Florida, including an official 6.99" to West Palm Beach, 4.07" to Jacksonville, 5.91" to Savannah Georgia, and 3.17" to Tampa. Barry's rains probably provided tens of millions of dollars of benefit--quite the opposite of what we're used to saying about tropical storms! The fire area near the Florida-Georgia border got between 1-5 inches of rain from Barry, which has dampened but not extinguished the fires. Barry's rains also helped a bit with the Florida drought. However, Barry's rains were only 1-2 inches over central Florida, and they need about 30 inches of rain to pull them out of drought conditions. The summer rainy season typically begins in June, so there is hope that substantial rains are on the way. There doesn't appear to be much rain coming this week, though.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from Barry for northern Florida, estimated by radar.

June outlook
My outlook for the first two weeks of June was posted Friday. I don't see anything on the horizon for the remainder of this week--wind shear is expected to be high most of this week over the favored breeding grounds for June storms--the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. Wind shear may drop enough over the Western Caribbean early next week to allow tropical storm formation, but that is too far in the future to guess at the probability of such an event.

This will be my last "live" blog until Monday June 11; it's time to grab a week of summer vacation while the tropics are quiet. I'm off to see Niagara Falls and the "Grand Canyon of the East", New York's awesome Letchworth State Park. I hope to get some good waterfall rainbow shots to add to my wunderphotos. I've written two canned blogs that will be posted Tuesday and Friday while I'm gone:

Tuesday--We've all used NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook, which most often this time of year says, "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours." How accurate are these outlooks? I'll present some verification statistics from 2005 and 2006.

Friday--The NHC made it's best track forecasts ever last year. How good are their forecasts now? Which of the various computer models performed the best last year? I'll have a breakdown of the numbers.

Arrogance
Our Climate Change blog by Dr. Ricky Rood has an interesting commentary on what the chief of NASA said last week in an NPR interview when asked, "Do you have any doubt that climate change is a problem that mankind has to wrestle with?"

Strongest tropical cyclone ever seen in Arabian Sea
Follow The View From the Surface blog this week to track Tropical Cyclone Gonu. Gonu is the strongest storm ever seen in the Arabian Sea, and could cause big trouble for the Persian Gulf oil rigs and tankers.

Jeff Masters

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809. sullivanweather
8:35 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Gonu could try to 'fight off' some of the adverse effects it will encounter as it heads for Oman.

If it is one thing about these super strong tropical cyclones that get this perfectly structured is that they seem to create their own environment and become less affected by external forcings.
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808. Thunderstorm2
4:41 PM EDT on June 04, 2007
Yes it is RL3AO
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807. Patrap
3:41 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
from margies blog..as the Doc suggested we check out..
Note: now that the world has realized that Gonu is going to have a major impact, the NRL web site is getting slammed and is not accessible, so images below from NRL will likely not refresh.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
806. Patrap
3:39 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
WAVCIS GOM 60 hr SST's model TAz..save this one..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
805. RL3AO
3:39 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Is the NRL site down?
802. Patrap
3:36 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
CIMMS MIMIC GONU 48hour loop Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
800. cajunkid
3:33 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
the sun is shinning here now...I'm just off Pinhook close to the airport. This is crazy
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799. Tazmanian
8:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
take a look at this

lol
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798. louisianaboy444
8:33 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
but you know whats really awkward we are getting the worst weather it seems in a long time down here in southern louisiana but the local weather stations are not calling for any severe storms just "pop up" thunderstorms! Unbelieveable!
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
797. cajunkid
3:30 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
what about those nice palm tree shaped islands in Dubai? I know they will get some strong north west winds.
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796. RL3AO
3:29 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Gonu looks incredible. I hope this thing doesnt destroy any oil platforms.
795. Patrap
3:31 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
4-panel Water Vapor Loop Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
794. Patrap
3:29 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico..showing the Blowup here today.. Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
793. louisianaboy444
8:29 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
that storm that is about to hit me in southern acadia parish will probably merge with your cell and here we go again! this is really serious
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
791. Patrap
3:27 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Its like the Energizer Bunny of Train Echoes...Link
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790. cajunkid
3:27 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
now look at the radar UNBELIEVABLE Link
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789. louisianaboy444
8:26 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
and it is still kicking too i'm looking at the radar and it shows no signs of letting up!
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
787. cajunkid
3:23 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
444, yea, it runs right under that red blob that hasn't moved all day. Funny we just have sprinkles @ the airport.
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784. louisianaboy444
8:21 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
doesnt the vermillion river run close to that area...i'm not excatly sure on that but if it keeps up we will have to start monitoring the river!
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
783. cajunkid
3:18 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
444, has to be 9"+ in Youngsville
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782. louisianaboy444
8:19 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Crowley hasnt got in on all the action yet but lets keep it that way! I had my dose yesterday...i'm still trying to pick up trees in my yard! we dont need more here....Im praying for my friends off to the south and east though let the rain stop!
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
781. Tazmanian
1:20 PM PDT on June 04, 2007
StSimonsIslandGAGuy ok
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780. MZT
8:19 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
A possible landfall in Oman? Is this going to drive oil futures crazy?
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
779. Tazmanian
1:19 PM PDT on June 04, 2007
when is the next BULLETIN for gonu


when is 04/2200Z is it soon???
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777. Patrap
3:18 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
Ive got the frog Up ric..facing East for ya..Kermits HIGH and dry..Link
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774. Tazmanian
8:17 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
or send some rain my way
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773. Patrap
3:17 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
The U.S. severe MAp now Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
772. Tazmanian
8:16 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
StSimonsIslandGAGuy ok thank you
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771. louisianaboy444
8:15 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
whats the count cajunkid!? Looks like the storm is starting to weaken but more is on the way....if you look at the radar the storms are getting cooking in texas and are heading this way...i wouldnt be surprised if we are put under a severe thunderstorm watch box in the next few hours if not the next hour
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
770. ricderr
8:15 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
pat....quit boarting that rain....pass it on east and south....we could use some more
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22373
768. Tazmanian
8:14 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
wow its like i am not her
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767. Patrap
3:12 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
South Louisiana Storm Totals so far today..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
766. Patrap
3:09 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
CIMMS MIMIC GONU 48hour loop Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
764. Tazmanian
8:07 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
i think gonu is going to be makeing land fall any where from cat 4 to low end cat 5 what do you think?
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763. louisianaboy444
8:05 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
south louisiana keeps getting round after round of severe weather....another "batch" is forming in southeast texas and pushing this way so maybe a repeat of yesterday...i feel sorry for the cajunkid catching close to 8 inches already in the rainbucket because i'm afraid more might be on the way....could be a dangerous situation down there in the southern suburbs of lafayette be on alert!
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
762. cajunkid
3:05 PM CDT on June 04, 2007
It wont quit! this is getting serious...Abbeville Youngsville and Broussard are gonna wash away
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760. Thundercloud01221991
8:03 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Come talk about weather at my website

Link
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759. 4Gaia
8:02 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Good, i'm glad you fared well.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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