Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Beneficial Barry

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:43 PM GMT on June 03, 2007

Tropical Storm Barry is no more. Its remnants, now an extratropical storm with top winds of 40 mph over the ocean, are over the Mid-Atlantic coast, moving north-northeastward at 10 mph. Barry's remnants are expected to bring 1-3 inches of rain along the Mid-Atlantic and New England states through Monday. Was Barry really a tropical storm? I think it should have been named "Subtropical Storm Barry", and I hope NHC looks at the storm carefully to consider redesignating it after the season is over. Read Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog for more on this.

On Saturday, Barry brought up to seven inches of rain to drought-parched Florida, including an official 6.99" to West Palm Beach, 4.07" to Jacksonville, 5.91" to Savannah Georgia, and 3.17" to Tampa. Barry's rains probably provided tens of millions of dollars of benefit--quite the opposite of what we're used to saying about tropical storms! The fire area near the Florida-Georgia border got between 1-5 inches of rain from Barry, which has dampened but not extinguished the fires. Barry's rains also helped a bit with the Florida drought. However, Barry's rains were only 1-2 inches over central Florida, and they need about 30 inches of rain to pull them out of drought conditions. The summer rainy season typically begins in June, so there is hope that substantial rains are on the way. There doesn't appear to be much rain coming this week, though.

Figure 1. Total rainfall from Barry for northern Florida, estimated by radar.

June outlook
My outlook for the first two weeks of June was posted Friday. I don't see anything on the horizon for the remainder of this week--wind shear is expected to be high most of this week over the favored breeding grounds for June storms--the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. Wind shear may drop enough over the Western Caribbean early next week to allow tropical storm formation, but that is too far in the future to guess at the probability of such an event.

This will be my last "live" blog until Monday June 11; it's time to grab a week of summer vacation while the tropics are quiet. I'm off to see Niagara Falls and the "Grand Canyon of the East", New York's awesome Letchworth State Park. I hope to get some good waterfall rainbow shots to add to my wunderphotos. I've written two canned blogs that will be posted Tuesday and Friday while I'm gone:

Tuesday--We've all used NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook, which most often this time of year says, "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours." How accurate are these outlooks? I'll present some verification statistics from 2005 and 2006.

Friday--The NHC made it's best track forecasts ever last year. How good are their forecasts now? Which of the various computer models performed the best last year? I'll have a breakdown of the numbers.

Arrogance
Our Climate Change blog by Dr. Ricky Rood has an interesting commentary on what the chief of NASA said last week in an NPR interview when asked, "Do you have any doubt that climate change is a problem that mankind has to wrestle with?"

Strongest tropical cyclone ever seen in Arabian Sea
Follow The View From the Surface blog this week to track Tropical Cyclone Gonu. Gonu is the strongest storm ever seen in the Arabian Sea, and could cause big trouble for the Persian Gulf oil rigs and tankers.

Jeff Masters

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802. Patrap 8:37 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
CIMMS MIMIC GONU 48hour loop Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

805. RL3AO 8:40 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Is the NRL site down?

806. Patrap 8:41 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
WAVCIS GOM 60 hr SST's model TAz..save this one..Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

807. Patrap 8:42 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
from margies blog..as the Doc suggested we check out.. Note: now that the world has realized that Gonu is going to have a major impact, the NRL web site is getting slammed and is not accessible, so images below from NRL will likely not refresh. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

808. Thunderstorm2 8:42 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Yes it is RL3AO Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608

809. sullivanweather 8:42 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Gonu could try to 'fight off' some of the adverse effects it will encounter as it heads for Oman. If it is one thing about these super strong tropical cyclones that get this perfectly structured is that they seem to create their own environment and become less affected by external forcings. Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 269 Comments: 12491

810. louisianaboy444 8:44 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
but youngsville is still getting rocked and broussard i wish i knew the rainfall totals Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

811. cajunkid 8:44 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
huh...the sun was shinning Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1239

812. Patrap 8:45 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Youngsville, La. data..scroll to bottom for stations in that area..Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

813. louisianaboy444 8:47 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
hey cajunkid looks like a line is starting to form from just south of jennings to just south of me to your hot spot over there....and look at those storms in texas heading over here they getting cooking man Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

814. Patrap 8:48 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
..If it Keeps on Raining..Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

815. cajunkid 8:48 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Patrap, the station in Maurice has to wrong reporting 0.00 precip Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1239

816. RL3AO 8:50 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Living in Minnesota, I will defiantly be watching the SPC the next few days.

818. cajunkid 8:51 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
444, check this out Link they can't stand any more Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1239

819. Patrap 8:52 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Use the radar storm total mode and zoom..Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

821. Patrap 8:53 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Pink is 12 inches.. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

823. louisianaboy444 8:54 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
a foot of rain!!! and counting...a light drizzle is starting to fall here with thunder in the distance and the wind is blowing but no heavy rain i think it will blow over me Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

824. Tazmanian 8:55 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Super Cyclonic Storm "Gonu" kill the navy site Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

825. cajunkid 8:56 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
good thing thats not over N.O. ayy Patrap? Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1239

826. Patrap 8:59 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
We have had 2.5in here in Kenner..with more lifting in..Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

827. louisianaboy444 9:00 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
the thunderstorm is about 10 miles to my south and the wind is blowing like crazy here and its thundering in the distance.....could the cells merging down there be responsible for the strong wind i'm getting here? Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

828. cajunkid 9:00 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
We just had a tank explosion in Vermillion Parish! they are evacuating Indian Bayou along Deuy Rd HW 167 is under water Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1239

829. sullivanweather 9:01 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
That cell south of Lafayette is training in every sense of the word. Hopefully the inflow of the supercell crossing the border into Louisianna will disrupt the sea-breeze boundry responsible for this ongoing storm. Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 269 Comments: 12491

830. Patrap 9:02 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Outflow downdrafts most likley.This kind of setup .is bad news.With Drive time a coming. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

832. Patrap 9:03 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Wait one...is that a Oil Storage tank..or what.? Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

833. cajunkid 9:07 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
StSimon,Patrap, its well to my west, thats all they said on the news flash, I'm trying to find out more Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1239

834. Patrap 9:08 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Heres the area ..Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

835. Ohio91 9:08 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Has Iran ever been hit by anything tropical

836. louisianaboy444 9:09 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
what caused it? Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

837. Patrap 9:09 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
emergencey mail network..notify..Heres a link for you cajunkid.Fill it out and youll be ahead of the game next time. Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

838. Patrap 9:10 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Most likely a Lightening strike. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

839. RL3AO 9:10 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Oman has be hit my three or four tropical storms. Not sure about Iran, but I doubt anything near hurricane strength.

840. cajunkid 9:13 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
thanks Pat! Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1239

841. louisianaboy444 9:14 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
man i wonder whats the rainfall totals now in youngsville and broussard! Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

842. louisianaboy444 9:20 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
14 inches in your hot spot!!!!! Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 1219

843. RL3AO 9:22 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
How much rain does Oman get per year?

845. sullivanweather 9:30 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Since 1945 it appears Oman has been hit by 13 tropical cyclones, 2 in 1979. Link Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 269 Comments: 12491

846. RL3AO 9:31 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
So parts are looking at 5 years worth of rain?

848. RL3AO 9:36 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
If it can hit a low populated are, it would be interesting to see what happens if it can hold together as a Cat 2 or 3. A cyclone going over 100 degree sand? I bet it falls apart pretty quick.

849. sullivanweather 9:39 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Outflow boundry from supercell that's moving into Louisianna is beginning to interact with sea-breeze front between Beaumont and Lake Charles. New storms should fire here and hopefully steal some of the moisture feeding into the cell south of Lafayette. Member Since: March 8, 2007 Posts: 269 Comments: 12491

850. Tazmanian 9:41 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
weather.gov National Weather Service Watches, Warnings & Advisories Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Flash Flood Warning -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAC113-042215- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 322 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 515 PM CDT * AT 320 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED FLASH FLOODING FROM A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE WARNED AREA. RADAR INDICATES 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMILION PARISH SINCE THIS MORNING. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO... MAURICE MEAUX ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. LAT...LON 3004 9241 2997 9199 3004 9196 3008 9207 i would have a lifejacket with you in your care if you are going any where tonight many roads are flood down there Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

851. Patrap 9:50 PM GMT on June 04, 2007
Storm Sure Se La.Aug 05..Plaquemines Parish Link Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

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