Beneficial Barry

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:43 PM GMT on June 03, 2007

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Tropical Storm Barry is no more. Its remnants, now an extratropical storm with top winds of 40 mph over the ocean, are over the Mid-Atlantic coast, moving north-northeastward at 10 mph. Barry's remnants are expected to bring 1-3 inches of rain along the Mid-Atlantic and New England states through Monday. Was Barry really a tropical storm? I think it should have been named "Subtropical Storm Barry", and I hope NHC looks at the storm carefully to consider redesignating it after the season is over. Read Margie Kieper's View From the Surface blog for more on this.

On Saturday, Barry brought up to seven inches of rain to drought-parched Florida, including an official 6.99" to West Palm Beach, 4.07" to Jacksonville, 5.91" to Savannah Georgia, and 3.17" to Tampa. Barry's rains probably provided tens of millions of dollars of benefit--quite the opposite of what we're used to saying about tropical storms! The fire area near the Florida-Georgia border got between 1-5 inches of rain from Barry, which has dampened but not extinguished the fires. Barry's rains also helped a bit with the Florida drought. However, Barry's rains were only 1-2 inches over central Florida, and they need about 30 inches of rain to pull them out of drought conditions. The summer rainy season typically begins in June, so there is hope that substantial rains are on the way. There doesn't appear to be much rain coming this week, though.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from Barry for northern Florida, estimated by radar.

June outlook
My outlook for the first two weeks of June was posted Friday. I don't see anything on the horizon for the remainder of this week--wind shear is expected to be high most of this week over the favored breeding grounds for June storms--the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. Wind shear may drop enough over the Western Caribbean early next week to allow tropical storm formation, but that is too far in the future to guess at the probability of such an event.

This will be my last "live" blog until Monday June 11; it's time to grab a week of summer vacation while the tropics are quiet. I'm off to see Niagara Falls and the "Grand Canyon of the East", New York's awesome Letchworth State Park. I hope to get some good waterfall rainbow shots to add to my wunderphotos. I've written two canned blogs that will be posted Tuesday and Friday while I'm gone:

Tuesday--We've all used NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook, which most often this time of year says, "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours." How accurate are these outlooks? I'll present some verification statistics from 2005 and 2006.

Friday--The NHC made it's best track forecasts ever last year. How good are their forecasts now? Which of the various computer models performed the best last year? I'll have a breakdown of the numbers.

Arrogance
Our Climate Change blog by Dr. Ricky Rood has an interesting commentary on what the chief of NASA said last week in an NPR interview when asked, "Do you have any doubt that climate change is a problem that mankind has to wrestle with?"

Strongest tropical cyclone ever seen in Arabian Sea
Follow The View From the Surface blog this week to track Tropical Cyclone Gonu. Gonu is the strongest storm ever seen in the Arabian Sea, and could cause big trouble for the Persian Gulf oil rigs and tankers.

Jeff Masters

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209. louisianaboy444
8:36 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
HELP! i'm about to get nailed over here! lol
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
208. Drakoen
8:34 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
The only reason i feel this system was name tropical storm is just the time. when the convective activty decided to blow up. thats all i will say. Just look at the system 3 hours after that...
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207. WPBHurricane05
4:28 PM EDT on June 03, 2007
Rain was heavy at times during Barry and the winds picked up during the stronger rain.

If that helps proving Barry was tropical......
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204. louisianaboy444
8:31 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
how is it looking for crowley louisiana right now because thats where i'm located....lightning is popping and its real dark but still no rain or wind yet?
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
202. Drakoen
8:29 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Posted By: MZT at 8:24 PM GMT on June 03, 2007.

Barry was more tropical than Andrea ever was. At least it formed in the tropics and was warm core. The rain sure had that steady, tropical remnant feel to it...

Not that I'm a big defender of the classification either. It really was not a "classical" tropical storm and I think a subtropical designation would have made as much sense.


yes this is what i feel.
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199. louisianaboy444
8:28 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
yeah my parish and the surrounding parishes are under severe thunderstorm warnings! the lightning is popping like crazy outside but not rain yet! what is a dercho?
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
198. Drakoen
8:25 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 8:23 PM GMT on June 03, 2007.

um Drakoen the fact that the highest winds and most of the convection was displaced from the center only proves that shear was present, there are tons of storms that look like that

how about Alberto last year, same thing
Earl from 1996, same thing

the only thing your statement proves is that shear was present and thats all


No. tropical system are know to have there deep convection around the Low pressure along with hihg winds. This system had a brief period in which deep convection was north of the center of circulation along with the winds. The system was asymetrical. Look at Barry now. I don't see much of a difference when it made landfall i Florida other than more of a warm core system.
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197. flsky
8:27 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
I've been thinking about an idea I read about in a book called "The Far Pavilions," which was set in India. There is mention of an primitive air conditioning system that was said to work well - essentially an water-evaporation cooling system.

My take is this:

Buy large pieces of burlap (or any loosly woven fabric) - large enough to fit the opening in your sliding glass door and/or window. Soak the burlap in water (you could use the water you've already saved in your bathtub), then hang in the door or window where the wind is blowing into your house. I think those office-type (black and silver) clips could be used for attachment to the door or window frame. You could also make a lightweight frame and attach the burlap to it.

You could also rig up a tray of some sort for the run-off (if any) from the soaked burlap to run into, thereby recycling some of the water.

I haven't actually done this myself, but I plan to give it a try now in case we lose power this summer. I live in Port Orange, FL, so I expect it to be humid, so if anyone knows whether this would work in this type of climate, I welcome your advice/opinions.
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194. MZT
8:17 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Barry was more tropical than Andrea ever was. At least it formed in the tropics and was warm core. The rain sure had that steady, tropical remnant feel to it...

Not that I'm a big defender of the classification either. It really was not a "classical" tropical storm and I think a subtropical designation would have made as much sense.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
191. louisianaboy444
8:18 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
I'm located in crowley louisiana the line of thunderstorms are just to my west....blackening up in the western sky!
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
189. Drakoen
8:21 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
yes tropic freak but this time of year its rare for anything to form there and none of the models are hinting tropical cyclone formation.
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188. tropicfreak
4:16 PM EDT on June 03, 2007
africa


Here's a very strong storm coming off of Africa.
This could develop in the near future.It's very well orgainized and the waters around that storm are very warm.There's not much shear with the storm.
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187. Drakoen
8:15 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 8:12 PM GMT on June 03, 2007.

thank you Jedkins for showing some proof that Barry was indeed tropical and the NHC knew what they were doing, there were some who doubted them, kind of sad really

but those observations you showed proves this system was tropical at time of landfall

The system was cleary not tropical at landfall IMHO. the Low level circulation was displaced from the convective activity. and most of the high winds were found on the east side of the system similar to what a subtropical or extratropical system would have. I don't clssify a tropical system as making landfall with a completely naked eye abd barely a central dense overcast.
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185. Drakoen
8:08 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
But Jedkins it just so happened that the NHC gave out there advisory at the time that Barry looked its best. Lets say 3 hours latter and it would have been snamed sub tropical storm. Jeff says is should have been named sub tropical storm Barry and he is the PHD. Although you are entitled to your opinion. The NHC should have taken the asymetrical organization of the system as well as the fast moving upper level winds into consideration when naming it. Barry's intereaction with the upper level wind dynamics made everyone in South Florida get Rain. It was borderline Tropical storm at the time it was named. I will still say that the NHC should have renamed it sub tropical storm barry in the second advisory. You could see that it quickly lost the heavy convection it had the was north of the COC. the main reasons why the NHC decided to name this thing was that at the time of the RECON they happened to find deep convection and in that 50 mph winds were found and pressure at 997 mb. The system had that Subtropical look to it. The system was very ragged to begin with and i am surprised at the fact that it was able to "organize" somewhat in the hostile environment. I want to see what they say during the off season analysis.
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182. Jedkins
7:52 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
It was mainly inland central florida that lacked in less rain then expected, coastlines got it pretty good including me.

Folks this thing was a TS not sub-TS, you could clearly see it had lost its baroclinic appearance and the warm front by the time it was declared one by the NHC.

The center went right over me, along with it came a band of deep convection with lightning and the air temp rose from 72 before the storms came in to 75 during the storms and rain rates were 2 to 5 inches per hour, also winds were only 15 to 20 mphh before the center moved in but increased rapidly to around minimal T.S. force then quickly died down as the storm raced by brining nothing but clear skies folled by low clouds ands spinklles on the back side.

Dew point was 79 in the center and it was dead calm and clear.


I experienced it my self here in pinnelas county it was still completely tropical at that time, there was still a small core of strong winds in thunderstorms just to the northeast of the center, and it was definitely warm core.

Those examples alone combined with the fact the NHC kept it tropical for a reason are good examples that it was tropical still.


Too bad it was so disorganized or rain would have been a lot heavier with more banding near the core and less uneven rain totals.

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179. Drakoen
8:02 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
can some post the link to the models i am on a different computer and i don't have the link saved. I also wanted to ask where the mmfsu model comes from.
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178. BahaHurican
3:55 PM EDT on June 03, 2007
I'm looking for a pic of that Arabian Sea system right now.
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176. Patrap
2:57 PM CDT on June 03, 2007
Thats why I post them Baha
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
175. ricderr
7:53 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
lol..thel....looks better now than it did before
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 676 Comments: 22373
174. BahaHurican
3:42 PM EDT on June 03, 2007
Jeez, Pat. Stuff like this should encourage every body who can to GET OUT before the storm . . .
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172. Drakoen
7:54 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
lol there is hardly any convective activty around the COC just CDO.
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171. thelmores
7:52 PM GMT on June 03, 2007


PINLOLE EYE!!!

LOL
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169. Patrap
2:47 PM CDT on June 03, 2007
Driving around after Sunrise ..a good short video from August 29th 05 , Downtown area Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
167. Drakoen
7:37 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Posted By: RL3AO at 7:34 PM GMT on June 03, 2007.

Considering a Cat 5 hasnt hit the U.S. in 15 years, I wouldnt count on it Drakoen.


LOL "Special season" :). You never know. "It could happen Tommorrow"
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166. Jedkins
7:38 PM GMT on June 03, 2007
Hey Jeff just to let you know becarefull by saying "central Florida only 1 to 2 inches" the entire tampa bay area had between 3 and 6 inches of rain, the same for the east coast, rains were only in the 1 to 2 inches well inland for central Florida, because as you headed toward the east coast places like melbourne had between 5 and 6 inches of rain as well.

By the way I picked up 6 inches here in pinnelas county..
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165. Patrap
2:35 PM CDT on June 03, 2007
Dosent have to be a Cat -5 at landfall to create Calamity. A cat-3/4 pushing a Cat-5 surge will do the deed.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
163. Patrap
2:37 PM CDT on June 03, 2007
Surge...August 29,2005 St. Bernard Parish

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
162. RL3AO
2:37 PM CDT on June 03, 2007
It is heading for Oman...or Yemen. I get those two confused.
161. BahaHurican
3:24 PM EDT on June 03, 2007
Heading for landfall on Somalia.

Somalia? I thought it was going to hit Oman at last forecast.
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160. RL3AO
2:34 PM CDT on June 03, 2007
Considering a Cat 5 hasnt hit the U.S. in 15 years, I wouldnt count on it Drakoen.
159. WPBHurricane05
3:31 PM EDT on June 03, 2007
I didnt feel like typing them out.

I mean we said almost the exact same thing at the same time.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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