A June 1 surprise: Tropical Storm Barry

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:25 PM GMT on June 01, 2007

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The hurricane season of 2007 officially began today, and we officially have our second surprising named storm of the season--Tropical Storm Barry. Barry is highly unusual in that it developed in the presence of strong wind shear--about 20-40 knots. I've never seen a tropical storm form under more than about 25 knots of wind shear. Satellite loops show a well-defined circulation to the west of Key West, and heavy thunderstorm activity popping up on the north side of the center. Barry is over the warm 82F waters of the Loop Current, and will gradually traverse over colder waters as it moves north and then north-northeast over the next day. The circulation of Barry is now visible on the Key West radar. Pulaski Shoal Light just to the northeast of Barry's center recorded sustatined winds of 35 mph, gusting to 40mph, at 2pm EDT today.

The Hurricane Hunters are still in Barry, and found that the pressure continues to drop--997 mb at 6:30pm EDT. The winds are also increasing, with the top winds at 77 mph at flight level of 1,500 feet at 5pm EDT. This corresponds to peak surface winds of about 60 mph. However, these winds are not representative of the storm, and likely occurred in the outflow from the strongest thunderstorm near the center. NHC is justified in bringing the intensity up to just 50 mph in their 8pm advisory.

I don't expect Barry will intensify to a hurricane, due to increasing wind shear and cooler waters underneath. Barry should mostly be a blessing for Florida, who can use the 3-6 inches of rain the storm is likely to bring. Some storm surge flooding may occur along the same stretch of coast affected by Tropical Storm Alberto last year. However, no damage was reported due to Alberto's storm surge, and Barry's should be roughly the same magnitude. Perhaps the greatest threat from Barry will be tornadoes that could form Saturday afternoon over Florida.

Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Barry at 8am EDT.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from the Tampa Bay radar.

A sign of things to come?
The hurricane season of 2007 is in second place for the earliest year that the second named storm occurred. The record is held by 1887, when the second named storm formed on May 17. Third place is held by 1934, when the second storm of the year formed on June 4. The second storm of 1934 was also the worst June hurricane on record. It hit Central America as a Category 1 hurricane, dropping up to 25 inches of rain on Honduras, triggering landslides that killed 3,000 people.

There is no relationship between high activity early in hurricane season and high activity during the main August-October peak of the season. For example, the 1934 hurricane season turned out to be an ordinary season with 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and no intense hurricanes.

June outlook
My outlook for the first two weeks of June was posted earlier today.

Radio play
National Public Radio's The Story program will be airing a long interview with me today about my flight into Hurricane Hugo in 1989. The show is carried on NPR stations in MI, WI, IL, IN, IA, MN, NC, NY, VA, and WI, and airs live today at 1pm or 8pm EDT. Check http://thestory.org/Stations for local stations and times. You can also listen live on the Internet at NPR station wunc.org in North Carolina. The host, Dick Gordon, is a very gifted interviewer, and it should be an interesting program. The MP3 of the interview is at http://thestory.org/archive/the_story_263_Hunting_Hurricanes.mp3.


Last night, I was guest on the Barometer Bob Show. You can listen to a podcast of my 50-minute spiel at http://www.barometerbobshow.com/podcast/.

Jeff Masters

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1248. hurricanedave
12:25 AM GMT on June 06, 2007
Lake worth florida here.
.76 inc of rain form 5.25 pm till now
1247. BoyntonBeach
4:55 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Thank you Skyepony ! Is that a cumulative chart ? if I'm reading it correctly it says max rainfall 4.8 inches..
Member Since: July 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
1246. Skyepony (Mod)
3:05 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Boyntonbeach~ Here's the storm rainfall totals for your area. This could even be on the light side in spots as we had a blogger in WPB with 8 1/2".
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
1243. BahaHurican
2:57 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Things are clearing slightly here for us, though looking at the sat. maps we may be in for another round later this afternoon.

I'm going out while there's a break in the rain - I have errands to run.

TTYL.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21484
1242. BahaHurican
2:53 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Note the sig. on the 11 a.m. discussion:

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/PROENZA

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21484
1241. RMM34667
2:52 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Well.. Guess I no longer have a reason not to drive. The sky is blue and the lake is like glass. Actually very very pretty here. But my son is giving me a real hard time.. He thought he was getting a free day off.. Maybe next week..
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 912
1240. salter
2:49 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
ok just when i say that it goes from 29.90 t0 29.85 wind out of sse at 10 mph
1237. salter
2:47 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
hey stormjunkie i think that right my bara. is going up here in z-hills raining like cats and dogs here now
1235. StormJunkie
2:43 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Flboy, I think the new circulation may be closer to N of Tampa or even NNE, but it was confusing me for awhile there...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
1234. StormJunkie
2:42 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
mda, sheer should reduce as the systems becomes extratropical and gets imbeded in the flow a little more as it move N. As for the SSTs, there is a eddy of warm Gulf Stream waters just off the Charleston coast, but generally the temps are still running under 80 between the coast and the Gulf Stream. There are some nice SST year to year comparison maps in my blog.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
1232. Fl30258713
2:36 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
mda91,

You can use this link to find shearing info.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html

You can use this one for Sea Surface Temps

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
(scroll down SST link on right at bottom)

or

You can get both at this link

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html


This site has even more informational links

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 985
1231. StormJunkie
2:36 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Wow, Dr Lyons just confirmed what I thought I was seeing, and was having a hard time understanding the past 2 hrs. The old low level center has fallen apart, and now a new extra tropical center is forming just to the N under the convection....
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
1227. BahaHurican
2:27 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Finally some heavier downpours here in Nassau. Winds are still relatively light, and no thunderstorms, which is good. Looks like we will be having another rainy day.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21484
1225. weathersp
2:21 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
It looks like the new models are taking the storm right up the Chesapeake Bay... right where I live...
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
1224. ClearH2OFla
2:21 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Hellsnipper NOt here I'm suprised we got this
1222. Hellsniper223
2:16 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
This... Is a bad omen. A TS strike on tampa early in the season means only one thing... Y'all'd better get ready for your CAT 5. It's your turn.
*Cackle*
Member Since: March 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16
1221. ricderr
2:16 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
gamma...hopefully with all the lightning he turned off his computer and unplugged...i know we all love the "excitement" and sharing of events...but doing the smart thing should be imperative
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 670 Comments: 21391
1220. BoyntonBeach
2:16 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Hey all, Anyone know where to retrieve 24 hour rainfall totals ? Lady on TWC said West Palm got 7 inches of rain ! I'm guessing we had 3-4 inches here !
Member Since: July 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1
1219. Patrap
2:14 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
The dry air and shear wacked Barry down ..like forecasted..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127547
1218. weatherboykris
2:13 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
The x in that stands for ensemble

No,it stands for extended.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
1217. Patrap
2:13 PM GMT on June 02, 2007

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are still quite cool in June, which limits the regions where tropical storm formation can occur. Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest (Figure 1). This year (Figure 2), SSTs are below average in the region surrounding Florida, so we should expect any storms that do form to occur in the Western Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. Another possibility is that the disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for last year's Tropical Storm Alberto (which may have also had help from an African wave).


from Dr. MAsters entry yesterday
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127547
1216. ClearH2OFla
2:12 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Hurray for Tampa Bay Looks like we get the first strike of the Season. Center is sitting 60 miles off the coast of pinellas county.
1215. Skyepony (Mod)
2:12 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Did have higher winds earlier

Sat Jun 02 2007
1404 GMT
Latitude 27.9 N
Longitude 83.3 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 1476 feet (450 meters)
Flight level winds 310 degrees at 14 knots (16 mph)
Temperature 19 C Dewpoint 19 C
Surface Pressure 1003 millibars
Surface winds 300 at 10 knots (11 mph)
Remarks: AF303 0202A BARRY OB 10

Sat Jun 02 2007
1345 GMT
Latitude 26.9 N
Longitude 83.3 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 1509 feet (460 meters)
Flight level winds 310 degrees at 24 knots (27 mph)
Temperature 20 C Dewpoint 20 C
Surface Pressure 1004 millibars
Surface winds 310 at 15 knots (17 mph)
Remarks: AF303 0202A BARRY OB 09

Sat Jun 02 2007
1331 GMT
Latitude 27.4 N
Longitude 82.7 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 1509 feet (460 meters)
Flight level winds 180 degrees at 44 knots (50 mph)
Temperature 22 C Dewpoint 22 C
Surface Pressure 1002 millibars
Surface winds 180 at 35 knots (40 mph)
Remarks: AF303 0202A BARRY OB 07

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
1214. tropicfreak
2:11 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
i can really tell that this season is going to be very busy.We already have dealed with 2 storms,and it's only the 2nd day of hurricane
season!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6874
1213. Patrap
2:11 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
7
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127547
1212. seflagamma
2:10 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
ohyes, SE Fla is done now as far as I can see on radar. was outside while ago and sun coming out. Oh well the rain was nice while it lasted! LOL!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40881
1211. seflagamma
2:09 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Congratulations to WPB!!!!!

I see Jed hasn't returned since his last post about getting hit by the heavest part of the storm. Has anyone heard from him? I guess he may be getting some serious wind and rain. just wondering....
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40881
1210. RMM34667
2:09 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
I'm depressed too.. I think I have to go to work now!
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 912
1208. Skyepony (Mod)
2:09 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Dropsonde Observations
Storm Name: BARRY (02L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF303
Observation Number: 02
Time: 1100Z
Latitude: 29.6N
Longitude: 87.6W
#NAME?
Surface: 1011 mb; Temp: 76F; Dewpt: 67F; N (10) @ 16 mph
1000mb height: 305 ft; Temp: 74F; Dewpt: 67F; N (10) @ 16 mph
925mb height: 2523 ft; Temp: 64F; Dewpt: 61F; NE (40) @ 15 mph
850mb height: 4888 ft; Temp: 58F; Dewpt: 53F; NE (35) @ 20 mph
700mb height: 10177 ft; Temp: 43F; Dewpt: 9F; NNE (25) @ 21 mph
500mb height: 18963 ft; Temp: 16F; Dewpt: 3F; N (350) @ 20 mph
400mb height: Unavailable
300mb height: Unavailable
250mb height: Unavailable
200mb height: Unavailable
SPL 2958N08757W 1058 MBL WND 01515 AEV 20700 DLM WND 02016
010494 WL150 01014 082 =

1011mb winds: N (10) @ 16 mph
978mb winds: N (10) @ 17 mph
926mb winds: NE (40) @ 15 mph
914mb winds: NE (40) @ 18 mph
893mb winds: NNE (25) @ 18 mph
850mb winds: NE (35) @ 20 mph
793mb winds: NE (40) @ 18 mph
774mb winds: ENE (60) @ 20 mph
743mb winds: NE (35) @ 24 mph
709mb winds: NE (40) @ 22 mph
638mb winds: NNW (340) @ 20 mph
617mb winds: N (360) @ 23 mph
496mb winds: N (350) @ 20 mph
485mb winds: NNW (335) @ 16 mph
#VALUE!
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
1207. PalmBeachWeatherBoy
2:08 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Statement as of 07:30 am EDT on June 02, 2007


... Record daily maximum rainfall set at West Palm Beach...

a record rainfall of 3.44 inch(es) was set at West Palm Beach today.
This breaks the old record of 3.2 set in 1892.



Raindance!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 30, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 470
1206. Patrap
2:05 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Now Im feeling kinda..depressed
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127547
1205. StormJunkie
2:05 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
That is some great imagery RMM. I really like the fact that they have added a Java version of the MIMIC this year.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
1204. weathersp
2:05 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
New 12z Models starting to come out..
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
1203. Patrap
2:05 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Gee Kris..that hurt..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127547
1202. weatherboykris
2:04 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Posted By: Patrap at 1:47 PM GMT on June 02, 2007.

I specifiacllly said the GFSx..its the experimental model..not the GFS itself


The GFSx isn't experimental...it's just a ten day GFS forecast.It was formerly called the MRF.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
1200. Skyepony (Mod)
1:59 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
I've been sleeping through recon..slap, Up again with coffee this time...morning again:)

Storm BARRY: Observed by AF #303
Storm #02 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #02: 02
Date/Time of Recon Report: June 02, 2007 13:35:30 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 27 18 ' N 082 54 ' W (27.30 N 82.90 W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of Millibars: Meters (Normal: Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 40 Knots (46 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 10 Nautical Miles (11.5 miles) From Center At Bearing 070
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 044 Knots (50.6 MPH) From 181
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 010 Nautical Miles (11.5 Miles) From Center At Bearing 071
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1002 Millibars (29.588 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 21C (69.8F) / 480 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 21C (69.8F) / 457 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 21C (69.8F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500 Feet
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 5 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 44 KT E Quadrant at 13:31:40 Z
2: Maximum Flight Level Temp 22 C, 71 / 10NM
3: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37342
1199. salter
1:55 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Hey good to hear from you Stormjunkie, i've been around just lurking for the most part. not much change here in z-hills last hour but you can tell something is brewing
1198. Patrap
1:55 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
I like the GFSx ..it goes out in time a gives a window to what MAY occur.But observation and insight will always be the keys in following the storms.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127547

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.