Needed rains headed for Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on June 01, 2007

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A large area of disturbed weather continues over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure. There is no circulation evident on QuikSCAT or satellite loops, and wind shear is about 20-30 knots, which is unfavorable for tropical storm formation. Wind shear is expected to remain high over the storm for the next few days, and I don't expect it to develop into a tropical depression. However, the storm has a lot of tropical moisture with it, and it should bring rains of 1-3 inches over western Cuba and much of Florida over the next two days, as well as the threat of 50 mph wind gusts and a few weak tornadoes. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to investigate the system at 2pm EDT today, but I expect this will get canceled.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from the Key West radar.

June outlook
I'll be posting my forecast for the first two weeks of June by 1pm EDT today. I plan to offer 2-week hurricane activity forecasts on the 1st and 16th of each month (except August 1, when I'll be on vacation). These forecasts will have the probability of hurricane formation for the coming two weeks, where the hurricanes will go if they form due to the prevailing steering currents, plus a look at how sea surface temperatures, wind shear, the trade winds, and dry air coming off of Africa are affecting hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

Radio play
National Public Radio's The Story program will be airing a long interview with me today about my flight into Hurricane Hugo in 1989. The show is carried on NPR stations in MI, WI, IL, IN, IA, MN, NC, NY, VA, and WI, and airs live today at 1pm or 8pm EDT. Check http://thestory.org/Stations for local stations and times. You can also listen live on the Internet at NPR station wunc.org in North Carolina. The host, Dick Gordon, is a very gifted interviewer, and it should be an interesting program.

Last night, I was guest on the Barometer Bob Show. You can listen to a podcast of my 50-minute spiel at http://www.barometerbobshow.com/podcast/.

Jeff Masters

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348. StormHype
8:06 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
This is no tropical system. It's 66F here in Bradenton FL and the rain is miserably COLD. Wilma Jr has turned 100% cold-core.
Member Since: May 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1203
347. ClearH2OFla
5:47 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
anyone have the latest model runs please. I am at work hard to look for . Thank you
346. marlinsfan1
5:39 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
It doesnt matter if the COC crosses over gainesville or the north because all of the heavy moisture is in the east quatrain, and thats the rain thats hitting us in Miami. It is very heavy rain!!!
345. HurricaneRoman
5:29 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Im not sure if anyone posted this ..but look ..this is for my area and much of south florida :


Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1251 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

FLZ071>075-172>174-011745-
MAINLAND MONROE FL-INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-
INLAND MIAMI-DADE FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY FL-
1251 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A LINE OF STRONG SHOWERS APPROACHING SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM ATLANTIC WATERS...

AT 1248 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
7 MILES NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO 7 MILES EAST MIAMI BEACH TO 15 MILES EAST
OF HOMESTEAD...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH. THIS LINE WILL AFFECT
MIAMI-DADE...SOUTHERN BROWARD...AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES
DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF OF THESE STRONG SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS WITH THE SHOWERS BECOME
ANY STRONGER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
344. WPBHurricane05
5:28 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
NEW BLOG
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
343. HurricaneRoman
5:27 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
it hasn't stopped raining here for like an hour...... its a moderate rain
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
342. HurricaneRoman
5:27 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
In my opinion.. i think lake okeechobee needs the rain the most
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
341. ClearH2OFla
5:26 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Look like a big bend landfall
339. bocaman
5:09 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Check out the recent observations from the Keys. Winds not too far from TS force. Most of the wind gusts at the Keys and Miami are between 30-35mph with sustained winds between 25-30mph





City Sky/Wx Tmp DP RH Wind Pres Remarks
Key West International HVY RAIN 75 72 88 E21G26 Kts 29.90S SB 1/4
Boca Chica NAS HVY RAIN n/a n/a n/a E21G26 Kts 29.90S
Marathon Airport HVY RAIN 75 72 88 E14G25 Kts 29.92S OG
Key Largo Handar not avbl
Miami International Light Rain 72 66 81 E12 Kts 29.98F
Miami Beach n/a n/a n/a n/a E20G28 Kts N/A

CWOP Weather Round Up
City Time (UTC) Tmp DP RH Wind (mph) Pres
Cudjoe Key 15:58 76 74 93 E16 G24 1012.4
Islamorada 16:01 74 72 94 E13 G20 1012.9

Marine Observations Across Keys Waters as of 1200 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007
CMAN Time (UTC) Temp Water Temp Wind Pres
Sand Key Light 1500 76 1012.9F
Sombrero Key Light 1500 76 83 E 26 G28 Kts 1012.4F
Long Key Light 1500 75 76 E 21 G24 Kts 1013.0F
Molasses Reef Light 1500 75 80 E 23 G26 Kts N/A
Fowey Rocks 1500 75 79 E 22 G23 Kts 1015.4R
Pulaski Shoal Light 1500 76 E 26 G30 Kts 1011.2F


337. thelmores
5:05 PM GMT on June 01, 2007


Looks like we have "half" a doughnut, and from my views, seems head "almost" due north, maybe slightly east of north.....

will be interesting to see if we can get further wrap around.......
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
334. IKE
5:00 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
333. bocaman
4:59 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
JPhurricane, what are you doing man? hahaha
332. HurricaneFCast
4:58 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
JP The Currents you posted are for Sytems with Under 940mb. LOL This thing is >1000... The one I posted is relevant.
Member Since: April 20, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 1482
331. HurricaneFCast
4:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
sdf
Member Since: April 20, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 1482
330. HurricaneFCast
4:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
JP- NO NO NO.. Lol that's the wrong level of steering currents.
Member Since: April 20, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 1482
329. Littleninjagrl
4:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Still doesn't look like its going to rain an inch here. Dry as can be here. I hope i'm wrong! We really need it.
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 843
328. sails1
4:55 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Take a good look on the visible presentation, the sear has relaxed in all quadrants! The troph bearing down from the northwest has washed out. Further development in now in progress. In fact, the COC looks better and more establish in the last two frames. TS by the 5pm advisory by NHC. Anyone share my thoughts?
Member Since: May 26, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
327. StormJunkie
4:55 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Posted By: HurricaneFCast at 4:51 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.
Please.. Will this support my opinion that not only will South Florida see significant and much needed rain fall, but that Central and North will also see much needed rainfall?


No one is disagreeing with that HFC, only that if it had come in further S and run across S Fla then there would have been less rain fall for the northern portions of Fla.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16504
325. Thunderstorm2
4:54 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
HFC, I can't do that either. I only know how to post WU Radar images, Sorry
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
324. StormJunkie
4:53 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Thanks HFC.

Mah, it may have wobbled a little N, but as HFC said the center is not anywhere near perfect, so it could just be a little disorganized and deceiving.

12z model runs should be out soon. Find them on the first link under models on the Quick Links page.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16504
322. HurricaneFCast
4:52 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Thunderstorm2- Is there anyway you can tell me how to post NWS Radar Images and Loops to the blog?
Member Since: April 20, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 1482
321. bigtrucker
4:52 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
hmmm. Florida will finally get some heavy rains from our carribbian disturbance which certainly is good news. BUT, what will happen with our disturbance as it re-emerges off the southeast coast? Will it gather enough strengh to become T.S.Barry? Not totally out of the question,and certainly with a funnel boundry draped along the New England Coast,New England will certainly be in store for some heavy rains and gusty winds...perhaps more...Stay tuned
Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 80 Comments: 6119
320. HurricaneFCast
4:51 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Please.. Will this support my opinion that not only will South Florida see significant and much needed rain fall, but that Central and North will also see much needed rainfall?
Member Since: April 20, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 1482
319. HurricaneFCast
4:50 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
gh
Member Since: April 20, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 1482
318. Thunderstorm2
4:49 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Good to see you too SJ

That is what it is trying to develop but i would think it will make landfall before it does that.

My Temperature is at the lowest high point it has been in 3 days and the Humidity is High...It's coming!!1

College Park
Orlando, FL
Updated: 13 minutes ago (History)
Elevation: 104 ft / 32 m
Temperature: 71.0 F / 21.7 C
Dew Point: 66.9 F / 19.4 C
Humidity: 87%
Wind:South at 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h /

Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h /

The Pressure is around 1017 hPa and falling.

The Rain is working it's way up

d
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
315. Fl30258713
4:48 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
I see several LL rotations/swirls

27.3N 88.1W
23.0N 87.6W
24.1N 85.0W
20.0N 84.0W

looks like chaos
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 985
314. HurricaneFCast
4:48 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
SJ- That's what i needed to see. I can definitely see a partial center now. It isn't a closed COC but it's a COC nonetheless. I Apologize for my assertions if they were at all offending. I would still not call it a "Well-Defined" center in terms of a normal Tropical System, But there is definitely a center. SORRY SJ. Thanks for the image thundercloud.

I still see no correlation between "Landfall" and who gets the rain. I still strongly believe in my opinion that it will not matter where it goes, the ENTIRE state is in for some much needed rain. I don't like the fact that people are so myopic that they assert that this is a "South Florida" system. That's completely inane. Anyways, My Apologies again.
Member Since: April 20, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 1482
313. bocaman
4:47 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Does anybody see some of the convection trying to fire up on the NW side of the center now?
312. MahFL
4:47 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Looks like the coc is heading NNW lol......
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3489
311. Tazmanian
4:47 PM GMT on June 01, 2007

Statement as of 4:00 am HST on June 01, 2007

For the central North Pacific...between 140w and 180

no tropical cyclones are expected through the next 48 hours.
$$
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115073
310. StormJunkie
4:45 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Good to see ya TS2

TS2, not if it does have a closed low level center, which it appear to be tr4ying to develop per visable...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16504
309. Thundercloud01221991
4:43 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
The center is clearly defined however it has no convection see my picture above
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
307. WPBHurricane05
4:43 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Wow there the power just flickered off at my house.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
304. GainesvilleGator
4:42 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
The low pressure system doesn't look like much. The good news is that the models keep shifting the path further norh where the rain is most needed. Right now is looks like the center of the system will go over Gainesville. A couple of new fires broke out on Wednesday near Gainesville so hopefully this will slam the door on fire season for some areas.

Everyone wants to guess where the landfall is going to be. Here is another contest, what will the lake level of Lake ochechobee be next Friday? I think it was at 8.94 ft yesterday. I read where the lake levels went up 1 1/2 ft after Ernesto came through last year. I am thinking that we may see it go up to 10.5 - 11 ft.
Member Since: September 11, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 744
303. HurricaneFCast
4:41 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
SJ- That's what i needed to see. I can definitely see a partial center now. It isn't a closed COC but it's a COC nonetheless. I Apologize for my assertions if they were at all offending. I would still not call it a "Well-Defined" center in terms of a normal Tropical System, But there is definitely a center. SORRY SJ. Thanks for the image thundercloud.

I still see no correlation between "Landfall" and who gets the rain. I still strongly believe in my opinion that it will not matter where it goes, the ENTIRE state is in for some much needed rain. I don't like the fact that people are so myopic that they assert that this is a "South Florida" system. That's completely inane. Anyways, My Apologies again.
Member Since: April 20, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 1482
302. StormJunkie
4:41 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Yes HFC, it will, but that is because the system is going to move N of St Pete. That is my point.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16504
301. Thundercloud01221991
4:41 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Here is the Center

Here is the Center
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3716
300. 0741
4:40 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Link that to show and this for chatroom Link
299. Thunderstorm2
4:40 PM GMT on June 01, 2007
Whoever said that 92L is TD 02-L becasue of the strength of it's winds and low pressure is absolutly WRONG!!!!
Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.