Texas floods kill 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:59 PM GMT on May 26, 2007

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Flash flooding triggered by heavy thunderstorm rains of up to seven inches in 24 hours claimed at least five lives in Texas Friday, and large portions of the state remain under flood warnings or flood watches today, as thunderstorms continue across the state. All of those killed were swept away in their vehicles, and police were still looking for a missing man who drove around a barricade blocking a swollen creek.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 24 hours ending at 8am EDT Saturday May 26, 2007.

Drought last year, floods this year
As I discussed in a March blog last year, grass fires in drought-parched Texas killed seven people on March 12 in the Panhandle, four of them in a car crash on I-40 caused by thick smoke obscuring visibility. More than 1,000 square miles of Texas burned that day--an area about two-thirds the size of Rhode Island. It's amazing what a turnaround has occurred in the past year. Most of Texas and Oklahoma were under drought conditions that reached the extreme level last spring (Figure 2), but this year, the Texas/Oklahoma drought is gone (Figure 3), and instead has moved into the Southeastern U.S. We don't understand very well what causes these shifts in drought patterns, but they do seem to be linked to changes in large-scale sea surface temperature patterns in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, plus shifts in the jet stream pattern. Are the floods in Texas this year and drought last year partially due to global warming? Yes, they might be. Global warming theory predicts that both droughts and floods will grow more severe as the climate warms. Floods will increase, since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor that can then rain out into heavier floods. Scientists have already documented about a 5% increase in global atmospheric water vapor due to global warming, and this extra moisture is undoubtedly causing heavier rains and more flooding in some regions. Drought will increase in intensity due to global warming, thanks to the hotter temperatures drought-striken areas will receive when jet stream and sea surface temperature patterns conspire to keep rainfall from the drought area.


Figure 2. Drought map for March 7, 2006.


Figure 3. Drought map for May 22, 2007.

Jeff Masters

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815. Thunderstorm2
5:56 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
I think i was wrong on the time it last for though.

Well i'm away to get some house work done!!!
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814. plywoodstatenative
9:55 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
chess, you lost me
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
812. chessrascal
5:54 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
Atlantic Floater 2
91E
Visible Image - Loop
Infrared Image - Loop
Shortwave IR Image - Loop
Dvorak IR Image - Loop
Water Vapor Image - Loop

This is what it says on NHC
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811. plywoodstatenative
9:53 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
Thunder and Stl, on that thought is there any chance that some of the damage we saw in South Florida from Wilma was from a derecho?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
809. plywoodstatenative
9:50 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
stl, is there a chance that a storm like wilma can have any effects on the subterranean part of florida?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
808. Thunderstorm2
5:46 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
Okay, My Mistake
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806. plywoodstatenative
9:42 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
Okay can someone tell me this, when does one forsee the next chance for some real rain for Florida as a whole?

Also, when was the last time that all of Florida saw a drought this bad during hurricane season. What was the result of that season dealing with the amount of storms and landfalling systems in or around Florida?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
804. Thunderstorm2
5:34 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
A microburst often has high winds that can knock over full grown trees. microburts often include lightning and hail. they usually last for a half of a hour.
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803. plywoodstatenative
9:32 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
I have a question for all in here, somewhat related to weather.

What type of damage would be seen from a micro burst? Trying to figure something out that happened in my area during or right after Wilma hit, since no torndados were reported by the NWS.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
802. TheRingo
5:25 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
actually 2 1008mb systems the other one further south going into Nicaragua.
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801. bocaman
9:22 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
The reason I think that the low center at 13N 79W is still being at least mentioned in the discussion is because it is in a dangerous area. This is an area where storms like Wilma, Mitch and others have formed and have experienced rapid strenthening in the SW Caribbean. Thats why they are keeping an eye on this low because crazy things happen with low pressure systems down there.
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800. Tazmanian
9:22 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
28/1745 UTC 13.1N 97.3W TOO WEAK 91E -- East Pacific Ocean
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799. TheRingo
5:21 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
GFDL calls for 01E to go west out to sea. But it does show a 1008mb system moving into the southern portion of mexico.
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798. Thunderstorm2
5:21 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
Ok, i'm going to get some food..BBL..lol
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797. IKE
4:18 PM CDT on May 28, 2007
Posted By: bocaman at 4:18 PM CDT on May 28, 2007.
The spin you are seeing there is more than likely a mid level spin that is within the larger burst of convection.


You may be right. I'm looking at a western Atlantic visible loop. I see the new invest in the east PAC and you can definitely see a nice spin with it...just like I'm seeing at about 15.5N, 77W...like you said..it could be a mid-level spin.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
795. Thunderstorm2
5:18 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
Or maybe it's for the future when it does cross into the Atlantic.
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794. bocaman
9:17 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
The spin you are seeing there is more than likely a mid level spin that is within the larger burst of convection. It is hard to see the low center there and you are right about there being little convection around it.
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792. chessrascal
5:14 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
anyway i changed my blog for anyone who wants to look.

Please comment.

Thanks
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791. IKE
4:10 PM CDT on May 28, 2007
Posted By: bocaman at 4:07 PM CDT on May 28, 2007.
Ike and kmanislander, you can see the surface low spinning at 13N 79W. It is moving towards the NW at about 10mph. you will be able to see the "faint" spin in the last five frames of the visible satellite shot if you go to NASA's Hurricane Satillite view


I kind of see a spin there...but it's almost cloud free. The NHC may drop that one on the 8:05 EDT discussion...I still see a rather impressive spin further north and east of there...with some convection.
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790. Tazmanian
9:12 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
hello
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789. chessrascal
5:10 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
Sorry bout that but NHC said that it was in the ATLANTIC
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788. Thunderstorm2
5:09 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
.
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787. Tazmanian
9:03 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
if you all would look back at TS2 post


Posted By: Thunderstorm2 at 8:38 PM GMT on May 28, 2007.

It appears the SSD has put 91E up on their Atlantic Floater 2


SDD made a ooops what you are all seeing is 91E


there are NO INVEST in the Atlantic what so evere at THIS TIME
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786. bocaman
9:04 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
Ike and kmanislander, you can see the surface low spinning at 13N 79W. It is moving towards the NW at about 10mph. you will be able to see the "faint" spin in the last five frames of the visible satellite shot if you go to NASA's Hurricane Satillite view
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784. kmanislander
8:54 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 8:49 PM GMT on May 28, 2007.

I don't believe that's where the low is...I see a spin @ about 16N, 77W.

At 13N, 79W...there's virtually nothing and I don't even see a spin there.


I agree that there is virtually nothing there visually but that does not mean there is no low present. The configuration of the cloud field at 13N 79W does suggest to me the presence of a weak surface low. I also see what you are referring to but we will have to wait for the next QS pass to see if there is in fact a low at either location. The discussion from the NHC later may drop any reference at all to it.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15754
783. IKE
4:00 PM CDT on May 28, 2007
Can you supply a link?
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782. chessrascal
4:57 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
Yes im talking about the E Pacific blob.
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781. IKE
3:54 PM CDT on May 28, 2007
You're talking about the east-pac?
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780. chessrascal
4:50 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
Pacific blob below.
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779. chessrascal
4:46 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
Hi all I just updated my blog for the new invest. anyway heres the IR image:

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778. IKE
3:47 PM CDT on May 28, 2007
I don't believe that's where the low is...I see a spin @ about 16N, 77W.

At 13N, 79W...there's virtually nothing and I don't even see a spin there.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
777. kmanislander
8:35 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
Just a quick check back in. I see the NHC 2:05 discussion keeps a 1010 mb low near 13N 79W. This image is centered roughly at those coordinates. Not a lot to see although there is some evidence of a low being present

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15754
776. Thunderstorm2
4:37 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
It appears the SSD has put 91E up on their Atlantic Floater 2
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774. tampahurricane
7:23 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
thanks for the modles
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773. IKE
2:21 PM CDT on May 28, 2007
Here's more models..Link
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772. IKE
2:19 PM CDT on May 28, 2007
Here's some models...Link

Note the MM5FSU model is outdated from 2006.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
771. tampahurricane
7:17 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
what site do you get the modles from
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770. stormybil
7:10 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
im not placing any bets on this models it been all over the place in the last 7 days . i think its dizzy now .
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769. tampahurricane
7:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
so that tropical blob is it going to hit florida
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768. RL3AO
2:03 PM CDT on May 28, 2007
91E doesnt look too bad.
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767. tampahurricane
7:00 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
how is every one doing today
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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