Texas floods kill 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:59 PM GMT on May 26, 2007

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Flash flooding triggered by heavy thunderstorm rains of up to seven inches in 24 hours claimed at least five lives in Texas Friday, and large portions of the state remain under flood warnings or flood watches today, as thunderstorms continue across the state. All of those killed were swept away in their vehicles, and police were still looking for a missing man who drove around a barricade blocking a swollen creek.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 24 hours ending at 8am EDT Saturday May 26, 2007.

Drought last year, floods this year
As I discussed in a March blog last year, grass fires in drought-parched Texas killed seven people on March 12 in the Panhandle, four of them in a car crash on I-40 caused by thick smoke obscuring visibility. More than 1,000 square miles of Texas burned that day--an area about two-thirds the size of Rhode Island. It's amazing what a turnaround has occurred in the past year. Most of Texas and Oklahoma were under drought conditions that reached the extreme level last spring (Figure 2), but this year, the Texas/Oklahoma drought is gone (Figure 3), and instead has moved into the Southeastern U.S. We don't understand very well what causes these shifts in drought patterns, but they do seem to be linked to changes in large-scale sea surface temperature patterns in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, plus shifts in the jet stream pattern. Are the floods in Texas this year and drought last year partially due to global warming? Yes, they might be. Global warming theory predicts that both droughts and floods will grow more severe as the climate warms. Floods will increase, since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor that can then rain out into heavier floods. Scientists have already documented about a 5% increase in global atmospheric water vapor due to global warming, and this extra moisture is undoubtedly causing heavier rains and more flooding in some regions. Drought will increase in intensity due to global warming, thanks to the hotter temperatures drought-striken areas will receive when jet stream and sea surface temperature patterns conspire to keep rainfall from the drought area.


Figure 2. Drought map for March 7, 2006.


Figure 3. Drought map for May 22, 2007.

Jeff Masters

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866. CaneKid
12:41 AM GMT on May 29, 2007
Does anyone have a link for Florida rainfall records? (ie: How much rain fell during May in Jax, Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, Key West etc)
Thanks!!
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865. weatherblog
12:27 AM GMT on May 29, 2007
Hey everybody. I just wanted to remind everybody about my blog called Polls/Voting Game. Both polls have ended. I will post the winners of the first poll by the end of May. And for the second poll I will put up the winners when Barry forms. I will be making my third poll (new) on June 1. The cut-offs for that will be June 10th. Thanks.


-Justin~
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864. stormhank
12:23 AM GMT on May 29, 2007
hey everyone... any thoughts on if a system will move into gulf from carribean next several days?? we sure could use rain up here in north florida
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863. PBG00
12:22 AM GMT on May 29, 2007
oops got the article
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862. PBG00
12:19 AM GMT on May 29, 2007
Wilma was awesome and scary and alot of fun after as the weather was great..no power but it was chilly and we all just hung out so back on topic..I missed the article, does a dry may preclude a busy season for us?
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861. TheCaneWhisperer
12:19 AM GMT on May 29, 2007
No rain in the forcast for the remainder of May!
859. TheCaneWhisperer
12:08 AM GMT on May 29, 2007

District Wide, South Of Lake Okeechobee (East and West Coast)

May Precipitation 2.47", Normal Precipitation 3.24, Percent of normal 76%
858. TheRingo
7:49 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
Posted By: plywoodstatenative at 7:05 PM EDT on May 28, 2007.
23, when is the last time that you can remember that florida has been this dry entering Hurricane season.

What was the result of that season in # of landfalling storms, major or not in Florida.


Here's an interesting article linking dry weather in May with hurricane activity. If I'm not mistaken May 2005 was also dry.
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857. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:55 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
CURRENT SAT AND IR OF NORTH ATLANTIC IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A MORE WEST WARD LOW LEVEL FLOW AS SYSTEM IN TROPICAL WEST ATLANTIC TRACKS NORTH EXPECT A MORE STONGER WESTLY FLOW IN LOW LEVELS TO BEGIN TO ADVANCE ALL THE WAY TO NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AS SUMMER PATTERN BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF LESS THAN 76 HRS TO OFFICIAL START OF 2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
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856. WPBHurricane05
7:54 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
weatherbro
I don't think that is possible.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
855. TheCaneWhisperer
11:55 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
Not a chance Weatherbro!

Here is the NHC discussion on why Andrea was named!

000
WTNT41 KNHC 091459
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE INITIAL LEG OF THE MISSION WAS FLOWN AT 300 MB FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND SEVERAL DROPSONDES
WERE RELEASED. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES REVEAL A RATHER FLAT
THERMAL CROSS-SECTION...NOT INDICATING A DISCERNIBLE WARM OR COLD
CORE AT ANY VERTICAL LEVEL. THE WIND PROFILES...HOWEVER...SHOW
WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION
AND DECREASING WITH HEIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF. GOES IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS CONSOLIDATED CLOSER TO THE CENTER...BUT PRIMARILY IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT HINT OF UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW WHICH WAS COMPLETELY ABSENT YESTERDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. ALSO...THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTRACTED FROM MORE THAN 100 N MI
YESTERDAY TO ABOUT 50-60 N MI THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE HYBRID
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA. THE 40 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
AN EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS AND RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA FROM 850
MB.
854. plywoodstatenative
11:51 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
I remember Allison reaching hurricane status but do not ever hearing of a major sub tropical system.
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853. weatherbro
11:45 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
can a sub-tropical system reach major hurricane status?
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852. plywoodstatenative
11:45 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
are we looking for another neutral La Nina or not this year. On that subject, whats the ration before we get a neutral La Nina or is there a way to predict it.
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851. Tazmanian
11:43 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES
. A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH WAS REPORTED AT HAVANA CUBA AND
A WIND GUST TO 49 MPH WAS REPORTED AT KEY WEST.






ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005



HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES
...415 KM


TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 430 MILES
...695 KM.



wow 23 look at this
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849. TheCaneWhisperer
11:40 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
The reason she got stuck is the front was delayed! I remember a few days prior, the forcast track had Wilma shooting the gap at a much faster pace along with the front. That would've been troubling.
848. southbeachdude
11:39 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
I think the blowups in the gulf are from the texas storms. The high is moving out and the storms will start to move to the east. Looks like this upcoming weekend will be good for the fires in ga/fl.....
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847. Tazmanian
11:39 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES
. A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH WAS REPORTED AT HAVANA CUBA AND
A WIND GUST TO 49 MPH WAS REPORTED AT KEY WEST.


wow 23 was right
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846. plywoodstatenative
11:37 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
whats the blowups in the gulf?
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845. RL3AO
6:33 PM CDT on May 28, 2007
91E is getting some new convection developing.
844. TheCaneWhisperer
11:27 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 11:06 PM GMT on May 28, 2007.

Posted By: plywoodstatenative at 6:58 PM EDT on May 28, 2007. (hide)
so then adrian the question comes, what type of effect could that front have had on enhancing damage brought on by wilma.

Iam not going to get to technical right now but i will say this iam thankful she got stuck down there cause if not we could have easily had major hurricane conditions across miami dade and broward counties.The highest winds in miami were around 80mph with some gusts to 90mph.I recorded several gusts with my anemometer to 77mph and one to 80mph that morning.


Had Wilma Moved through the yucatan faster, she woulden't have hit our area at all! She would have traveled much farther north into the gulf and likely hit north of Tampa!
842. hurricane23
7:20 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
Look at how large the TS wind field was on wilma on here way to south florida.

wilma
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
841. plywoodstatenative
11:17 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
rain, who said rain? We need it all over florida

Any no name systems out there that we could tie down over the state?
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840. plywoodstatenative
11:13 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
Okay so with the season approaching, which of the areas is likely to see the first storm? We had already seen the ULL thats been hanging around the caribbean basin, now we have these storms drifting from the Lousiana area into th GOM and firing up. I asked about eddy locations, any in thea area of these fire ups?
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839. IKE
6:13 PM CDT on May 28, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 6:01 PM CDT on May 28, 2007.
IKE the GFS has been nothing short of ridiculous since the upgrade was made on the model.


Agree...but there are other models predicting the same. I hope the GFS is wrong...they have no rain forecast for the parched Florida panhandle(where I live), for the next 7-10 days.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
838. hurricane23
7:09 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
Here is one of the albums i have on hurricane wilma-Infrared images.38 images.

Hurricane Wilma Images
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
837. hurricane23
7:02 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
Posted By: plywoodstatenative at 6:58 PM EDT on May 28, 2007. (hide)
so then adrian the question comes, what type of effect could that front have had on enhancing damage brought on by wilma.

Iam not going to get to technical right now but i will say this iam thankful she got stuck down there cause if not we could have easily had major hurricane conditions across miami dade and broward counties.The highest winds in miami were around 80mph with some gusts to 90mph.I recorded several gusts with my anemometer to 77mph and one to 80mph that morning.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
836. BahaHurican
6:34 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
Evening all,

That mid-upper circulation to the NE of the Bahamas looks interesting. Pity it isn't a couple hundred miles further west. However, it looks like it will move into the space between the A and the B of the AB high, (well, not literally the AB, but u get the drift :o) and move off. Unfortunately, as soon as it goes away the high moves back into place off the GA / SC coast.

This setup looks, so far, like last year's setup in the mid and latter part of the season, when the worst of the season's storms got steered up the middle of the Atlantic. While it's definitely not good for the drought-stricken areas, I'd guess it would work to keep Cape Verde systems recurving early in their lives.

I'd be rather worried, though, if that persistent high becomes a true AB high with such extensive ridging into the GA area . . .
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835. plywoodstatenative
11:03 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
23, when is the last time that you can remember that florida has been this dry entering Hurricane season.

What was the result of that season in # of landfalling storms, major or not in Florida.
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834. hurricane23
6:57 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
IKE the GFS has been nothing short of ridiculous since the upgrade was made on the model.Its been developing everything in sight and basically has a problem with genesis which they will be working on in the next couple of weeks.

Had a conversation with formosa from the NHC earlier today he said there working on it but it will take some time.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
833. plywoodstatenative
10:58 PM GMT on May 28, 2007

On the topic of the GOM, anyone know of any edies in the area of where the storms that have developed are located? Seeing that the Caribbean still has the ULL and remnants of the invest and now the GOM another place to watch has some blobs.
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832. plywoodstatenative
10:58 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
so then adrian the question comes, what type of effect could that front have had on enhancing damage brought on by wilma.
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831. hurricane23
6:55 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
Posted By: plywoodstatenative at 6:53 PM EDT on May 28, 2007. (hide)
Question was their a front around when Wilma came around?

Yes its what actually made her turn towards south florida.Remember the cool weather we had after the storm?
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
830. IKE
5:54 PM CDT on May 28, 2007
GFS 18 UTC has jumped on board with a low developing in the SE GOM by this weekend...then shoots it across SE FL. The UKMET and CMC on their 12 UTC runs had a low in the GOM. The CMC has it crossing the panhandle...the UKMET has it crossing NE Florida.

Latest GFS run...Link
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829. plywoodstatenative
10:56 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
The navy has 91E and Noname.E now on their page.
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828. plywoodstatenative
10:21 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
Question was their a front around when Wilma came around?
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827. Antivanity
10:40 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
if you look at the western gulf in the middle, you see 2 strange cloud formations as the loop plays. Almost looks like smoke billowing from one point. What causes this? is there a name for it? Just interested..

golf w.v. loop: Link
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826. Tazmanian
10:41 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
Posted By: Thunderstorm2 at 8:38 PM GMT on May 28, 2007.

if you all would look back at TS2 post




It appears the SSD has put 91E up on their Atlantic Floater 2
SDD made a ooops what you are all seeing is 91E


there are NO INVEST in the Atlantic what so evere at THIS TIME
ok whats try one more time
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825. RL3AO
5:38 PM CDT on May 28, 2007
SSD has an invest in the atlantic!





J/K. Any idea why they didnt put it under Pacific floater 2?
824. weatherbro
10:25 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
what about may/june 98 statenative? ive only lived here for 15 years. thats the only summertime drought to my knowlege. yet i did here that 85 was bad too.
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821. Tazmanian
10:08 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
but no ONE on this blog seen to be geting that


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820. plywoodstatenative
10:03 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
the damage seen is odd in the nature. pools within the area of coconut creek popping out of the ground over the time expanse of a year, same with decks.
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819. WPBHurricane05
6:04 PM EDT on May 28, 2007
They (NHC) put the East Pacific Invest 91E under Atlantic Floater 2.
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818. Tazmanian
9:59 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
chessrascal look at my post on what TS2 siad and my bolds
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817. Tazmanian
9:56 PM GMT on May 28, 2007
Posted By: Thunderstorm2 at 8:38 PM GMT on May 28, 2007.

if you all would look back at TS2 post




It appears the SSD has put 91E up on their Atlantic Floater 2

SDD made a ooops what you are all seeing is 91E


there are NO INVEST in the Atlantic what so evere at THIS TIME

ok whats try one more time
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.