Texas floods kill 5

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:59 PM GMT on May 26, 2007

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Flash flooding triggered by heavy thunderstorm rains of up to seven inches in 24 hours claimed at least five lives in Texas Friday, and large portions of the state remain under flood warnings or flood watches today, as thunderstorms continue across the state. All of those killed were swept away in their vehicles, and police were still looking for a missing man who drove around a barricade blocking a swollen creek.


Figure 1. Precipitation for the 24 hours ending at 8am EDT Saturday May 26, 2007.

Drought last year, floods this year
As I discussed in a March blog last year, grass fires in drought-parched Texas killed seven people on March 12 in the Panhandle, four of them in a car crash on I-40 caused by thick smoke obscuring visibility. More than 1,000 square miles of Texas burned that day--an area about two-thirds the size of Rhode Island. It's amazing what a turnaround has occurred in the past year. Most of Texas and Oklahoma were under drought conditions that reached the extreme level last spring (Figure 2), but this year, the Texas/Oklahoma drought is gone (Figure 3), and instead has moved into the Southeastern U.S. We don't understand very well what causes these shifts in drought patterns, but they do seem to be linked to changes in large-scale sea surface temperature patterns in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, plus shifts in the jet stream pattern. Are the floods in Texas this year and drought last year partially due to global warming? Yes, they might be. Global warming theory predicts that both droughts and floods will grow more severe as the climate warms. Floods will increase, since a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor that can then rain out into heavier floods. Scientists have already documented about a 5% increase in global atmospheric water vapor due to global warming, and this extra moisture is undoubtedly causing heavier rains and more flooding in some regions. Drought will increase in intensity due to global warming, thanks to the hotter temperatures drought-striken areas will receive when jet stream and sea surface temperature patterns conspire to keep rainfall from the drought area.


Figure 2. Drought map for March 7, 2006.


Figure 3. Drought map for May 22, 2007.

Jeff Masters

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515. melwerle
2:24 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
thanks HM - figured as much.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
513. WPBHurricane05
2:20 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
What we need is the high pressure over the eastern seaboard to move. One of my local meteorologist says he expects this.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
512. HurricaneMyles
2:18 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
melwerle....Every model is a crap shoot.
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
511. RL3AO
2:17 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
CMC @ 120hrs
1
510. melwerle
2:12 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
Morning everyone -

I have a link for a page with the experimental models - which one does everyone prefer or is it all a crap shoot?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
509. RL3AO
2:07 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
GFDL drags it (TD1-E) west, then it turns direction and goes east.
507. StormJunkie
1:27 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
CMC Phase Evolution

Has it ending up asymmetric, likely due to the shear?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
506. sarepa
1:25 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
np.... WPBHurricane05 u want me to go out there again i went last nite... want me to go now so u can add more to ur blog :P
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
505. StormJunkie
1:22 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
The CMC is the outlier with that scenario right now pcs, so I wouldn't give it too much credibility yet. What I found most interesting was the shear beginning to lift around the Leeward Islands in the Nogaps, GFS, and CMC.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
504. WPBHurricane05
1:22 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
Ok cool. Thanks sarepa.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
503. weatherblog
1:21 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
omg!!!!!!!!..lol..it's raining in Broward County. Sweeet!

Anywho...I think the system may become td 2. It is looking more organized than ever. But, as of course, the NHC takes their precious time...so... we'll be waiting a while for this to become td 2. And then there is always the chance that this may disspate out of nowhere.
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
502. Patrap
1:19 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
USA MAP STA MODEL. Weather & Climate Data Tropical Cyclone Links ... Climate Data | Satellite Data | NCEP | Climate Centers | NWP Links | Tutorials Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
501. sarepa
1:16 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
Heres last night reports when i went on realweather on flight simulator with a hurricane hunter with radar ects on the blob on the carribean

Maxium winds i found was 17 mph
Pressure couldent find it
Rain Moderated/heavy
Thunderstorm/ isolated
Light Turbulance ;)
Circulation: well i found a broad circulation with some thunderstorms there but again wasent good spining but when i was going i saw like another center trying to form not sure..
This is the report
Member Since: January 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
500. pensacolastorm
8:14 AM CDT on May 27, 2007
It definately has something hitting the outer banks after it brushes s fla.
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499. StormJunkie
1:10 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
Welcome pcs, that is the Canadian model. Sometimes good, sometimes not, but it is one of the major models.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
498. pensacolastorm
8:06 AM CDT on May 27, 2007
Who runs the cmc? Does anyone know its historical accuracy?
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496. StormJunkie
12:39 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
Latest CMC still want to form something in the Carib and bring it up the E coast clipping the OBX at about the 144+hr time frame. Looks to develop a little pocket of low shear, but I don't think it will be enough to allow anything to form. Shear around this supposed system will be too high, IMHO.

Did notice that the CMC, GFS, and Nogaps all appear to show the shear lifting N towards the end of the run. Also show the shear dying off some in the E Carib.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
495. Thunderstorm2
8:35 AM EDT on May 27, 2007
And into cooler water so we can forget about it.
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494. hurricane23
12:31 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
TD 1 is not going to be a problem for any landmass so nothing significant concerning this system.Track basically shoots it striaght west.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
493. Patrap
7:32 AM CDT on May 27, 2007
Hello 23,.. its Sunday morning roundup.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
492. Thunderstorm2
8:28 AM EDT on May 27, 2007
GFDL brings TD 01-E down to a TS with winds at 61kts (70mph) and 994 hPa. That is a big change from the 960 hPa CAT 3 it was predicting..lol
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491. hurricane23
12:26 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
Thanks patrap.

Thought that was the link to the palm beach post but its from Nola.Thanks anyway.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
490. Patrap
7:25 AM CDT on May 27, 2007
View cover graphic pdf Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
489. StormJunkie
12:20 PM GMT on May 27, 2007
Morning all ☺

Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 11:56 AM GMT on May 27, 2007.
lol have we all pretty much caught on that StormTop is now StormKat? must've gotten banned and made a new account.


Don't think this is the case Story. Go check the blogs. StormTop has not been banned from what I can tell so I doubt he is StormKat. Could be wrong though, but I do know ST has not been banned.

CSU forecast.
Go to the 2007 forecast schedule.

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
488. Patrap
7:24 AM CDT on May 27, 2007
Hurricane Season 2007
Times-Picayune Special Edition..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129844
487. WPBHurricane05
8:18 AM EDT on May 27, 2007
It was in the Palm Beach Post Storm 2007, in todays paper from the Palm Beach Post. You should be able to pick it up at a Publix or Winn Dixie.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
485. hurricane23
11:58 AM GMT on May 27, 2007
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 11:50 AM GMT on May 27, 2007.

I'm not sure adrian. I think I have a different newspaper than you.

This article your talking about was written by colorado state can you post a link?
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
484. StoryOfTheCane
11:56 AM GMT on May 27, 2007
lol have we all pretty much caught on that StormTop is now StormKat? must've gotten banned and made a new account.
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483. StoryOfTheCane
11:55 AM GMT on May 27, 2007
yea, that definitely takes the cake as the worst ive seen on here
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482. WPBHurricane05
7:54 AM EDT on May 27, 2007
I did Cane. That was very disgusting.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
481. StoryOfTheCane
11:53 AM GMT on May 27, 2007
did anybody else happen to have the displeasure of seeing the disgusting content posted yesterday? I hope that guy was banned from here.
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480. WPBHurricane05
7:48 AM EDT on May 27, 2007
I'm not sure adrian. I think I have a different newspaper than you.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
479. hurricane23
11:44 AM GMT on May 27, 2007
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 11:42 AM GMT on May 27, 2007.

Yikes! Got my Storm 2007 book this morning from the Palm Beach Post. It looks like Palm Beach has a 7% chance of a storm, 2% chance of a hurricane and about .6% chance of a major.
Broward County has a 4% chance of a storm, 1% chance of a hurricane and .4% chance of a major.

And in Miami Dade county...well if you live there you won't like this. There is an almost 30% chance for a Tropical Storm, a 9% chance for a hurricane, and a 2.4% chance for a major.

This forecast was made by the Colorado State University forecast team. It was made by dividing storm landfalls by years and adding in this season's prediction.


Hey WPBHurricane05 i got my newpaper down here in my miami yesterday and read that we get ours on wednesday or is it today.Thanks adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
478. StoryOfTheCane
11:43 AM GMT on May 27, 2007
florida and the east coast will probably see the majority of the larger landfalls
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477. WPBHurricane05
7:36 AM EDT on May 27, 2007
Yikes! Got my Storm 2007 book this morning from the Palm Beach Post. It looks like Palm Beach has a 7% chance of a storm, 2% chance of a hurricane and about .6% chance of a major.
Broward County has a 4% chance of a storm, 1% chance of a hurricane and .4% chance of a major.

And in Miami Dade county...well if you live there you won't like this. There is an almost 30% chance for a Tropical Storm, a 9% chance for a hurricane, and a 2.4% chance for a major.

This forecast was made by the Colorado State University forecast team. It was made by dividing storm landfalls by years and adding in this season's prediction.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
476. StoryOfTheCane
11:41 AM GMT on May 27, 2007
I think Florida will see more than its fair share come the end of the season
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475. WPBHurricane05
7:34 AM EDT on May 27, 2007
I guess these tropical disturbances didn't get the memo that they need to go give Florida some good amount of rain.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
474. StoryOfTheCane
11:29 AM GMT on May 27, 2007
shear is going to rip it apart (actually maybe not, the forecast looks like it might be in its favor)
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473. hurricane23
11:27 AM GMT on May 27, 2007
06Z NAM brings a 1008mb low into the NW caribbean.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
472. StoryOfTheCane
11:13 AM GMT on May 27, 2007
Let the season begin
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471. StoryOfTheCane
11:09 AM GMT on May 27, 2007
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470. WPBHurricane05
7:09 AM EDT on May 27, 2007
When looking at the latest GFDL model run for Tropical Depression 1E it shows another system developing closer to Mexico. It moves this system into Mexico. The GFS and at one point the ECMWF were predicting a storm to do something like this and than move over Florida. If this solution does play out this could be beneficial rain for Florida.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
469. stoormfury
10:58 AM GMT on May 27, 2007
Good morning to all. the sw caribbean disturbance seemed to have held its own during the night. the sydtem looks s little bit more organise this morning and is on the verge of becoming an invest. the system is under 5-10 knots wind shesr at the moment,and has a good chance of forming into a TD today. as usual the NHC always takes its time to make a positive take on this system.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2722
468. hurricane23
10:53 AM GMT on May 27, 2007
Good morning....

Seems like our area down in the caribbean remains rather disorganized at development if any should be slow.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13841
467. G35Wayne
10:42 AM GMT on May 27, 2007
there aint sheet goin on down there
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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