Will TD 10 rise again?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:38 PM GMT on August 23, 2005

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The remains of TD 10 continue to fester over the Bahama Islands, and the clouds have taken on that decidedly messy pattern associated with a tropical depression in the formative stages. An exposed low level circulation center is apparent in both visible satellite imagery and winds from the Quikscat satellite. The circulation was north of eastern Cuba and south of the central Bahama Islands, near 22.5N, 76W at 11am EDT. Deep convection is all east of the low level circulation center, and Quickscat winds as high as 30 knots were measured in this area. Observation stations in the vicinity are sparse, and I have not yet seen any pressure falls in those stations close to the system.

The environment surrounding the system is good but not ideal. Water temperatures are quite warm--about 29C, and closer to 31C near the western Bahamas. However, wind shear levels have been increasing somewhat over the past 12 hours and are about 10 - 15 knots (5 -10 knots would be much better.) A small upper-level low just north of the system may act bring some dry air into the system and hamper any upper-level outflow that tries to develop. Another possible problem is the presence of the large landmass of Cuba to the south, which may disrupt the system's circulation if it tracks more westerly. I expect the storm to continue to torment us by very slowly continuing to organize as it moves towards Florida.


The system appears to be tracking west-northwest at a very slow 5 to 10 mph, and the latest "early guidance" shows the storm moving more northwesterly towards Florida over the next few days. However, steering currents are weak and more westerly motion towards Cuba or the Straights of Florida would not be a surprise. Some of the computer models such as the Canadian model strengthen the system into a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico later in the week. Some very warm water (32C, or almost 90F) lies off the west coast of Florida that model believes will fuel the storm into a hurricane. The GFS model makes the system a weak tropical storm that moves over Florida by Friday, then keeps the system a weak tropical storm as it recurves past the Carolinas. If the system does become a tropical storm, it is unlikely the upper level winds will allow intensification into a hurricane for at least the next three days. By that time, it's anybody's guess what might happen. One thing is for sure--the remains of TD 10 will be a around for a lot longer, they're going nowhere very fast. I expect I'll still be talking about this system next week!

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit the remains of TD 10 at 5pm this afternoon to see if a new tropical depression has formed. If so, it will be interesting to see if they call it TD 10 again, since the NHC discussions have been refering to this system as "possibly the remnants of TD 10".

African Tropical Waves
The large tropical wave 700 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has gained some deep convection on its east side since yesterday, but has struggled to maintain its convection in the face of some increasing wind shear this morning. The system is also battling some dry air to its norhtwest that is getting entrained into the center. This system could still become a depression in a day or two as it moves west to west-northwest. Global models forecast that this storm will recurve before it threatens any land.
Jeff Masters

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845. lefty420
4:31 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
good morning, who ever answered my question about the blacxk out, thats what i thought but was making sure thank you.


so to all guys who did not want to listen to melasy ha ha told you what would happen


and 79 good call man 800 was a good rime we have the earliezst 12 name storm
844. Sheraqueenofthebeach
2:04 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
is*
of*
new blog.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3140
843. hazmat
2:00 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Can read & SPELL...funny your disdain for computers...you're on one now & your Viper is one as well.

Your Katrina...the one that was nothing & people were wasting time talking about....the one recon would be canceled for...Geez.
842. STORMTOP
1:59 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
katrina is moving on wnw heading now the trough is washing out the big high is building..this ai almost a scenario like andrew....its kind od scary..
841. STORMTOP
1:54 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
hazmat either you cant read or you just stupid and i hope its the first one....i have no comment for and idiot like you....
840. JeffM
1:53 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Lets move this over to the new Dr. Jeff blog
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
839. STORMTOP
1:51 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
lol the gfs and ukmet models have been the worse this year...i have no comment ofn computers..i go by facy=ts that are currently taking place in the atmosphere..you can see the trough at 500mb why the satorm was moving nw now its beginning to weaken rapidly...the high is building in and the next 24 hours you will see a definite west movement...
838. hazmat
1:48 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
StormFlop said "..if you think this is going in the Atlantic I'll give you my Viper..fool"

Another example of the pot calling the kettle black.

StormFlop...why do act like you came up with the idea of Katrina reaching hurricane status at 1st Fl landfall? The NHC has mentioned that possibility in it's last several reports.
837. JeffM
1:47 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
New post by Dr. Jeff up.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
836. weatherguy03
1:46 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Hey lippy..On the GFS, I've been watching the runs from 0Z to 6Z, awaiting 12Z info. Each run is starting to bring it on a more westward track. It is still moving it north eventually, but brings it more into Florida, and almost into the Gulf at 6Z. So it is trending west now, we will see if this continues today. Should have 12Z here shortly will let you know.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
835. HillsboroughBay
1:46 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
It's actually VIPIR

It is widely used by TV news channels.

VIPIR (Volumetric Imaging and Processing of Integrated Radar)

IOW. It takes info from a number of radar sites, stirs it up in a computer & comes up with a composit radar image.



834. lippy
1:46 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Now, now Stormtop - no one here wants your viper.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
833. STORMTOP
1:46 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
weatherguy knows im right he is just trying to give me a hard time lol
832. lippy
1:44 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
"Stormtop what does your viper say?"

Am I the only person here twisted enough to read something revolting into that question?
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
831. STORMTOP
1:44 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
lippy if you think the storm is going out in the atlantic i will give you my viper...what a fool..
830. weatherguy03
1:43 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
"IF you keep watching bob breck he will confuse you."...Pot calling the kettle black..lmao...
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
829. Sheraqueenofthebeach
1:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
an*
weak*
Lose the Caps lock Lenny.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3140
828. weatherguy03
1:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
OK LENNY...THANK YOU!!!!
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
827. STORMTOP
1:42 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
LADOBE LADY IF you keep watching bob breck he will confuse you..one of these days people are going to be killed because of him..he is always trying to out do the nhc...that will get him in trouble sooner or later..
826. lippy
1:40 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
"Lenny"... You're my hero Queen.

Looks like some of the other models are turning the storm north over Florida or just off the west coast of Florida and taking it out into the Atlantic. Maybe the GFS has been right all along.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
825. STORMTOP
1:38 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
RAPID STRENGTHING........FALLING PRESSURES .........CANTORI SAYS A HURRICANE COUD HIT FLA WITH 95 MPH WINDS ..ITS IN AND AREA VERY WEKS SHEAR NOTHING TO BOTHER HER..I AGREE WITH CANTORI..
824. MandyFSU
1:38 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Hi Everyone: Been reading your posts since the beginning of the season- this really is a great place to get some info! What is everyone's thoughts on impacts to the Big Bend? I think poor St. Marks is still cleaning out from Dennis...
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 82 Comments: 2525
823. hazmat
1:33 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Viper..Very Idiotic Person Erring Royally

822. weatherguy03
1:32 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
VIPER=Stormtop's imagination...lol..
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
821. FSUstormnut
1:29 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
It looked like Katrina was wrapping in dry air earlier this morning, but has since improved its symmetry now has impressive outflow. I think it will be at least a Cat. 1 at its 1st land fall.
Member Since: June 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
820. LADobeLady
1:28 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
What does the acronym (Viper) stand for Storm?
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794
819. STORMTOP
1:27 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
no douby in m,y mind weatherguy it will be a cat 1 when it hits fla...85mph winds
818. STORMTOP
1:25 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
i wont consult viper until saturday evening...that will be my first run on viper.......
817. LADobeLady
1:25 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
I really want to hear what the Viper has to say!
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794
816. weatherguy03
1:24 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Yeah cmon Storm warm up the Viper!!! He comes the Viper!!! Woohoo!!!
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
815. weatherguy03
1:22 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Yes I noticed that this morning FSU. The outflow is finally trying to get organized on the western side of this storm. First signs of this since this storm organized yesterday. Better anticyclonic flow above system. We will see if this trend continues today. Could be a CAT 1 when it reaches Florida.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
814. STORMTOP
1:22 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
11pm CDT katrina will have winds od at least 50 mph...bahamas winds have increased substantially in the last 3 hours...they are getting gusts to 50 ..sustained 45 mph...perssures are dropping now...this storm is getting its act together..my baby katrina has a brain after all...
813. LADobeLady
1:20 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Stormtop what does your Viper say?
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794
812. weatherguy03
1:19 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Yes we got it Storm, waters are "sizzling", explosive development, CAT 5, we heard it all already. You getting excited yet..lol...
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
811. FSUstormnut
1:19 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Katrina does appear to be strengthening rapidly. The outflow is looking very impressive in all directions! I'm very curious what the 11pm update will tell us.
Member Since: June 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
810. STORMTOP
1:18 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
katrina will be a force to deal with by sunday for the la coast..i wat to make this perfectly clear i think the first hurricane watches depending on when katrina gets in the eastern gulf a watch will go up from layeyette to mobile alabama.....
809. Sheraqueenofthebeach
1:18 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Thank you.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3140
808. STORMTOP
1:15 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
the track has not changed by the nhc since yesterday at 5pm...this is a track that is similar to emily..you have a stong high guiding the storm on a west to wnw for the next 48 hours then you have your turn to the nw towards the la coast....
807. STORMTOP
1:12 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
NO SCROLL UP AND LOOK AT MY LATERST UPDATE....KATRINA 8AM CDT..
806. Sheraqueenofthebeach
1:11 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Again I ask, lose the CAPS lock, Lenny.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3140
805. weatherguy03
1:11 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Geez now I get Stormtop bulletins. What is this world coming to!!!..lol..
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
804. STORMTOP
1:10 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
WPBL THE TEMPS ARE RUNNING 88-94 DEGREES IN THE GULF..LOOK AT JOSE HOW FAST HE STRENGTHENED SO CLOSE TO LAND..KATRINA ONCE COMING OFF OF FLA IT WILL BE OVER WATER FOR 2 DAYS AND IT WILL STILL HAVE THE GULF STREAM TO PASS OVER JUST BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL...THATS 100 MILES OF EXTREMELY WARM WATER LIKE 98 DEGREES..THATS HOW IT WILL ATTAIN ITS CAT 5 STATUS...
803. FSUstormnut
1:10 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
stormtop.. are you saying Katrina will hit s. florida as a cat 2?
Member Since: June 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
802. weatherguy03
1:08 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Oh I thought it was safe to enter this morning, but I was wrong..lol...He's back...Uh oh.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
801. STORMTOP
1:06 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
NO THE INFO I GET IN FROM MY BUDDIES..KATRINA WILL CONTIUE TO STRENGTHEN AND IT WOULDNT SURPRISE ME IF SHE IS A HURRICANE BY THIS EVENING...
800. HillsboroughBay
1:06 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
from Baynews 9 Out Tampa Newschannel email alerts

<
Tune in to BN9 for more.>>

8:53 AM eastern
799. WPBFL
1:05 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
And when is it supposed to have time to get to cat5?? Recovering from going over florida? I doubt it
798. Sheraqueenofthebeach
1:04 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
Lose the CAPS lock Lenny.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3140
797. STORMTOP
1:03 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
WELL WPBFL YOU DONT KNOW HOW CLOSE THIS IS TO THE NHC..THE ONLY THING WE DISAGREE WITH IS THE INTESITY...I SAY AC CAT 5 THEY SAY A CAT 3...THE TRACK IS RIGHT ON LINE..
796. FSUstormnut
1:03 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
who's press? yours?!
Member Since: June 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
795. STORMTOP
1:01 PM GMT on August 24, 2005
JUST GIVING YOU ALL THE LATEST RIGHT OFF THE PRESS

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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