Very active Atlantic hurricane season forecast by NOAA

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:45 PM GMT on May 22, 2007

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It's going to be a very active 2007 hurricane season in the Atlantic, according to NOAA's seasonal forecast issued today. The NOAA team predicts a very high (75% chance) of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season. They expect 13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes (a normal season has 10-11 named storm, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes). Most of these storms are expected during the usual August-October peak of hurricane season, but NOAA does not give any breakdown of which portions of the coast are more likely to be affected. They give two reasons for predicting an above-normal hurricane season:

1) A continuation of conditions since 1995 that have put us in an active hurricane period (in particular, the fact that sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes are currently about 0.6 C above normal, Figure 1).

2) The strong likelihood of either neutral or La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.


Figure 1. Top: Tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures in the Main Development Region for hurricanes (green box) were 0.6 C above average during March and April 2007. This anomalous warmth is expected to persist though hurricane season. Bottom: The 0.6 C above average temperatures are consistent with the exceptionally warm temperatures seen since 2003. Image credit: NOAA.

How good are these forecasts?
NOAA's long lead hurricane outlook team, which consists of scientists from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (lead: Gerry Bell), National Hurricane center (NHC), and the Hurricane Research Division (HRD), have been making seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1998. If one grades their May forecasts based on predictions of a below average, average, or above average season, NOAA has done pretty well. Seven of their nine forecasts have been correct. Their only failures occurred last year, when they called for a very active season (it was a normal year, with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes), and 2001, when they called for a normal year (it was a very active year, with 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes).

Steering currents for June
It's now possible to say something about the steering currents for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins June 1. A hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season is no big deal if the steering currents are your friend! The forecast jet stream pattern for the next two weeks from the GFS model is similar to last year's pattern. I expect we'll see a series of troughs of low pressure marching across the Atlantic Ocean through early June, which is typical for this time of year. The Bermuda High is in its usual location, and there are no signs of the unusual steering pattern of 2005 that brought so many hurricanes over the U.S.. It is still to early to say what the steering patterns will do during peak hurricane season, August through October, though.

The Dr. Bill Gray/Phil Klotzbach's team at Colorado State University issues their updated Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 31 next week, and I'll be sure to make a post about that forecast.

Jeff Masters

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433. stormkat
2:43 PM GMT on June 17, 2007
WE ARE SAFE GUYS NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT THOSECOMPUTERS ARE OUT TO LUNCH...ALL OF JUNE WILL BE CLEAR SO DONT LET THE BLOBS FOOL YOU BECAUSE THEY WONT DEVELOP....StormKat
Member Since: May 9, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 335
431. melwerle
1:09 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
ok - i'm outta here - i gotta go to the commissary and get stuff at the grocery store.

Have a good day y'all.

Melissa
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
429. melwerle
12:55 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
photos are cool too - nice AWARD. ;)

Can you post on that? I had signed in but couldn't figure it out whether i could post or not. Perhaps I should wake up one of my TEENAGERS. I am sure THEY could figure it out - I seemed to have lost all mechanical etc inclinations as soon as I hit 30 and beyond....
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
426. melwerle
12:50 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
Morning StormW - checked out your blog - very cool.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
424. melwerle
12:47 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
Morning all - anything interesting?

Ike - i know what you mean - live in GA and been smelling smoke for I can't tell you HOW long at this point. Monday was REALLY bad. not so bad the last few days as the wind has been gusting.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
423. IKE
12:45 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
Now I'm left with the stinky smell of smoke.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
422. nash28
12:39 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
I'm jealous Ike. I forgot what rain felt like.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
421. IKE
12:36 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
Posted By: nash28 at 7:22 AM CDT on May 24, 2007.
Good morning all. Just got in to work. 00z CMC still showing a little something forming, but now has it further west near S. FL.

06z GFS shows a little something in the GOM.


It backed off on that persistent low forming in the western Caribbean...it does still show ample moisture into the SE USA by the middle of next week.

NAM(unreliable)...has a low in the western Caribbean in the 84 hour run.

Whatever happens/develops...I think the dry pattern is close to changing...in a few days.

It rained here at my house last night.......

And good morning to all.........
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
419. Comatose
12:30 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
Take every thing you read here, keep the pieces you like and throw the rest out.
418. pbeachbaby
12:27 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
I was wondering if someone could tell me what is the best or should i say most accurate forecaster to listen too.it seems there is alot of different opinions. i know dr masters is good
but i do not know much except by experience as i live in fla panhandle. just curious i am trying to learn. thanks
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
417. nash28
12:22 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
Good morning all. Just got in to work. 00z CMC still showing a little something forming, but now has it further west near S. FL.

06z GFS shows a little something in the GOM.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
416. Patrap
12:18 PM GMT on May 24, 2007
The GFSx shows a possible Blip in the Southern GOM..June 3rd..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128664
414. BahaHurican
11:12 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
Morning,

That mass of disturbed weather moving off into the EPac is looking extremely vigourous this morning. Isn't this the area where some model was forecasting moderate development?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
413. airman45
9:46 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
I'll ship some rain to California also, not just Florida. More rain today..sigh.. Is our dry season EVER going to start...
Member Since: April 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3508
410. Inyo
6:10 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
Jedkins, we in California are tired of the high pressure also. Of course, we KNOW it won't rain until october so its just time to wait.
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
409. KoritheMan
4:39 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
BahaHurican, I guess you are right. However, what's to say the tropical waves will be slow-movers? Thus, a tropical storm is a much more easy way of getting rain. Besides, I hardly consider a tropical storm to be "bad" in the least. 70 mph wind gusts with moderate to strong ones, and hurricane-force winds gusts with 70 mph ones is not bad... It may be a little bad for coastal erosion, and coastal wind damage (slight damage), and some power outages on the coast and further inland, but other than that, nothing. I've never heard of a tropical storm producing a tornado stronger than an F1. With the EF scale though, who knows. A tornado is a tornado. Even so, I label tropical storms, unless slow-movers, "WIMPY".
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20832
408. KoritheMan
4:36 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
No idea, Wayne, but that is a possibility (as it is every year, or almost). That would be interesting meteorological wise, but believe me when I say I don't want to see that happen, since damage would be catastrophic, no doubt. I still think there is an 80% chance of at least one major hurricane landfall this year in the U.S., and I think that may come from a Cape-Verde hurricane.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20832
407. G35Wayne
4:11 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
I wonder if this is the year for Tampa to get hit with the BIG one.
406. Tazmanian
3:45 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
400
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
405. Jedkins
3:25 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
more like lets hope it gets dicey here in Central Florida this summer, because thats exactly what need, things to get dicey.


I say we boycott this California weather, I lived there 13 years ago, and Florida has been more like California past several months then Florida.

FLORIDA CITIZENS UNITE TO BOYCOTT HIGH PRESSURE!

lol
404. BahaHurican
2:39 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
Even if you don't get a named storm in June, that's typical,

Kori,

I don't think u even need the TS, if u get a couple of slow-moving and vigorous tropical waves to come your way. Sometimes the low-wind storms are best for rain content.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
403. KoritheMan
2:31 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
Let's hope Barry forms soon and gives Florida some rain. This isn't because I want a tropical cyclone, but because Florida really DOES need the rain. Even if you don't get a named storm in June, that's typical, so no need to jump onto every blob a model predicts.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 584 Comments: 20832
402. seminolesfan
2:22 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
Insurance people gettin involved in tropical met strikes me as producing conflict-of-interest issues.lol
Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
401. Chicklit
2:21 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
...So it looks like Central Florida is in the crosshairs. Let's have a nice Memorial Day Weekend...'cause it could get dicey this summer!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11351
400. tornadodude
2:17 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
hey y'all! its been hazy here in central indiana thanks to the georgia and florida wild fires link scroll down on the link
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
399. seminolesfan
2:07 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 12:51 AM GMT on May 24, 2007.
This new outlook that came out today makes no sence to me how they have most of south florida shaded in green when we should be at high risk on any given season.


Yeah that bright green box looks real out of place sitting down there facing all the action!

Their key says much below normal means less than 50% of the long term average. Since the percentage for that area for 2007 is 10-15%; the normal for that area would be at least 20-30%. This would imply that extreme southeast FL experiences hurricane force winds every 4 years as a long term average or 13 strikes in the last 50 years.

You're right...something doesn't make sense here!!!


Member Since: June 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2108
398. BahaHurican
2:00 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
Evening everyone,

We've had some very heavy rainfall here, [Nassau, Bahamas] especially yesterday morning, when it rained heavily for more than 3 hours - the most continuous rain we've had in months.

I don't know about named systems in June, but I do know that years when we have heavy rainfall during the last 10 days of May usually also turn out to be heavy June rainfall years, generally due to passing tropical waves. However, given that this latest event was triggered by a polar air mass, I'm not certain the traditional June pattern will hold.

It'll be interesting to see what eventuates . . .
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22322
397. IKE
1:58 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
His Q & A blog has only 12 posts...hasn't had a post in 5 days. Guess he's not gonna be answering too many questions....maybe he got stumped!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
395. IKE
1:46 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
It's raining here in the western Florida panhandle. A rare sight!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
394. Skyepony (Mod)
1:42 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
crackerlogic~ For some reason I was thinking you were east coast. Sorry, waves here been kickin, lifegaurds real busy saving tourists from the rips & jellys thick.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38180
393. HIEXPRESS
1:14 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
Posted By: Stormworrier at 12:20 AM GMT on May 24, 2007.
Earlier Nesting by Loggerhead Sea Turtles Following Sea Surface Warming Sets Stage for Very Long and Stormy Summer
The shrimping season peaked & ended early this year here on Mosquito Lagoon. Global Forecasting Shrimp!
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
392. hurricane23
12:54 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
Stormhank thats unlikely to happen remember the futher you got in time the skill level drops of on the model.When you start seeing it threw 24-96 hours with a different models then it should be taken more seriously.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
391. hurricane23
12:51 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
This new outlook that came out today makes no sence to me how they have most of south florida shaded in green when we should be at high risk on any given season.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
390. stormhank
12:48 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
Link GFS 18Z 228 hrs. I hope this holds true. we surely could use the rain in north florida
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
389. Inyo
12:47 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
I hear ya. They had to renovate the greens on the two golf courses I play frequently down here in Miami. The drought and the county water restrictions have mutilated the courses in Florida. Its hard to putt in a sandbox..ya know?

at least they don't water your golf courses during droughts. Here in southern California, some areas are the driest they have been in 100 years and we keep draining our reservoirs down to keep watering those golf courses. ugh. they use a massive amount of water because summer rainfall is negligable.
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
388. crackerlogic
12:31 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
Skyepony

thank you. I usually go to wetsand.com for the wave report, but i dosen't say much is coming. just hopping some blobs are looking good. I also live on the west coast :(
387. Stormworrier
12:20 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
HEY EVERYONE, CHECK IT OUT. DOESN'T LOOK GOOD FOR ANY OF US THIS YEAR.

Earlier Nesting by Loggerhead Sea Turtles Following Sea Surface Warming Sets Stage for Very Long and Stormy Summer

April 24, 2007 Stuttgart, Germany. Dr. Longscneckerhoffman and his fellow associates are all in agreement concerning the upcoming 2007 Hurricane Season.

Finally, his long awaited prediction is in. Of course, he will be changing it every month to adjust for error, but he emphatically states that in his final 2007 prediction, in on November 30th, will be “pretty much on the money, unless there is a late storm in December.”

He basis his predictions on the egg laying habits of the loggerhead turtle. The endangered little turtle which grows to enormous proportions, only to return to their nest to lay eggs in the early spring, mostly on the beaches of Florida and other sunny places. But oddly, not in Mexico or Arizona.

"It's a schimple formula", Longscheckerhoffman said, "but sometimes there are many schupid people who can't find their own asses, so I will try to make it even more schimple. ”

Longscheckerhoffman went on to explain his exhaustive studies between the correlation of SST and the cuddly little sea creatures.

“First and foremost”, Longscheckerhoffman says, “you schimply divide the number of sea turtle eggs (approximately 120 per nest) by the SST at the end of May, then multiply that by the last snowfall (in inches, above the 5000 meter height during the latter part of January. Take this number’s square root and divide the common denominator of the number of sea turtles that hatched earlier than expected. Then subtract the actual year in which it happen. The result is the number of Atlantic Hurricanes, give or take.”

Longscheckerhoffman went on to explain how many would hit the mainland of Germany and the answer was quite surprising. None! He has been 100 % accurate for the past 78 years.


His next update is due on June 2nd. So far he has uncannily predicted correctly that one named storm would form, but would cause little damage to the Motherland or the United States. He also correctly predicted the storm would be named Arlene or Arnold or something that started with an A.

I THINK WE SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS LONGSCHECKERHOFFMAN DUDE. LOOKS LIKE HE’S ON THE BALL.

386. Skyepony (Mod)
12:19 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
crackerlogic~ your wave report
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38180
385. Comatose
12:18 AM GMT on May 24, 2007
Congrats to you HIEXRPESS. Hopefully some of that rain will shift due south!
384. crackerlogic
11:56 PM GMT on May 23, 2007
what is up everyone, some one please tell me i will have waves in florida soon "little miss drea" teased me
383. IKE
11:46 PM GMT on May 23, 2007
The 18 UTC GFS has a stronger low going into north Florida in about 7-8 days..Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.