East Coast storm on Friday; Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:58 PM GMT on May 15, 2007

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All of the major computer models are forecasting the development of a extratropical low pressure system late this week over the Bahama Islands, about 300 miles east of Florida. This low is forecast to develop Thursday night or Friday morning, then move north-northeastward along the East Coast. The models have a wide range of solutions for the intensity and track of this storm, but it appears unlikely that it will have enough time over warm water to become Subtropical Storm Barry. Several of the models predict that the storm will become quite intense and hit New England on Saturday, bringing gale force winds and heavy rain. It's too early to judge the likelihood of this, though.


Figure 1. Hurricane Daniel on July 21, 2006, as seen by NASA's Terra satellite. Daniel was the strongest hurricane to affect the Eastern Pacific in 2006 (Category 4, top winds of 150 mph).

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins today
Today marks the official start to the hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific. Starting today, NHC will issue their Tropical Weather Outlook for the Eastern Pacific four times daily. The 2-week forecast from the GFS model is not predicting that Tropical Storm Alvin will form in the coming week, but hints that the last week of May could see some development. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University is the only group that I am aware of that issues long-range seasonal forecasts for the Eastern Pacific. Their May 2007 forecast calls for a 40% chance of below normal activity (nine or fewer named storms), a 35% chance of normal activity (10-15 named storms), and a 25% chance of an above normal season (more than 15 named storms). The forecast of a less active than usual season is primarily based on their prediction that sea surface temperatures will be below normal in the Eastern Pacific during hurricane season. Unfortunately, they don't provide an easy way to determine how reliable their long-range forecasts are.

I'll have an update on Thursday.
Jeff Masters

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663. Patrap
2:05 PM GMT on May 17, 2007
Compare Images of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Side-by-side Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
662. Starwoman
2:03 PM GMT on May 17, 2007
new blog
Member Since: September 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 196
661. kmanislander
2:03 PM GMT on May 17, 2007
Personally I pay no attention to models beyond 3 days out. One day they are calling for development and the next they are backing off. Makes for entertainment and discussion material but thats about it.

Shear is still very high over the Bahamas so anything trying to get started there will have a very hard time . Still, we have seen systems off the E coast of Fla spin up in 30 knot shear conditions. Never say never
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15826
660. hurricane23
1:56 PM GMT on May 17, 2007
If youre talking about the area near the bahamas i dont think its really going to be a problem as conditions really remain unfavorable for development and the pending cold-front should kick this area out to sea along with the much needed rain we need in florida.Hope you have a great day Kman.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13787
659. HurricaneMyles
1:50 PM GMT on May 17, 2007
Models are saying bahamas storm will be extra-tropical. I think the NHC just likes to play with our heads ;)
Member Since: January 12, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 827
658. kmanislander
1:44 PM GMT on May 17, 2007
good morning all

I see that " Invest " has been restored to the floater. Perhaps a sign of confidence in the models ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15826
656. hurricane23
1:02 PM GMT on May 17, 2007
Good morning...

No worries out there as far as tropical development is concerned as we are a few weeks out before conditions start becoming favorable for tropical storm formation.For now enjoy the quite times and you live in florida like myself lets pray for some rain as our chances dont look to great.Looks like the dry spells return for florida as high pressure will build in and keep us dry threw the weekend and into next week.Also forgot to note weak cold-front pushing down the state might bring some scattered precip but thats about it.Adrian

Adrian's Weather
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13787
655. Thunderstorm2
12:43 PM GMT on May 17, 2007
Aaron is not going to be please with that copycat troll who i have flagged several times.

Member Since: December 22, 2006 Posts: 129 Comments: 7608
654. StormJunkie
12:11 PM GMT on May 17, 2007
Morning Star, HG, SW and STL.

Already flagged and reported STL ☺

Checked the Quickscat this morning and did not see much of interest with the Bahamas area. You can find the Quickscat page from here now.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16554
652. Starwoman
12:02 PM GMT on May 17, 2007
Thanks, StormW.
:-)
Member Since: September 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 196
651. HurricaneGeek
11:59 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
so, stormw when do you think Barry will come along
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
649. Starwoman
11:53 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
StormW,
Thanks, and you've mail too.
Member Since: September 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 196
648. HurricaneGeek
11:52 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
Good morning everyone
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
644. starbuck89
11:18 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
good morning everyone
643. Starwoman
10:06 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
good afternoon all!
Patrap, I like your links. Very interesting.

Member Since: September 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 196
642. dnalia
10:03 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
Posted By: hurricane23 at 1:18 AM GMT on May 17, 2007.
Glad to see a few south florida residents on iam also form south florida actually live a few blocks from were the best of the best are located-NHC.I have a pages dedicated to florida weather on my site.


I drive by the NHC every day. I don't worry until I see them put up their storm shutters :D
640. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:26 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
oh I see now, some poser. -_-''
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
639. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
8:23 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
hmm.. *suspicious look

what's wrong with your name Michael.. it looks different?
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
637. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:02 AM GMT on May 17, 2007


Tropical Cyclone Pierre, peak forecast 60 knots
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
636. TheCaneWhisperer
4:30 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
They had that earlier today, removed it, now replaced it! Nothing at the NRL yet! I am thinking that the invest from the NHC is because of the close proximity to land, not much to see but, anything can and does happen.
635. kylejourdan2006
4:18 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
So I guess the area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas is 91L now, right? I'm assuming this because the NOAA SSD site and the NHC satellite page say "Invest" with the images over this area...

NOAA SSD:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

NHC Satellites:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
634. weatherboykris
4:08 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
No,they didn't.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
631. ForecasterColby
3:09 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
No, 0741. Caribbean is quiet.

NHC's satellite page has the imagery for the Bahama system labelled "Invest".

I propose the term "Invest 01Bahama" until we get more info!
630. 0741
2:38 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
can anyone tell me if look like their spin round panama that moving north into southwest carribbean i trying look down their but sat pic cut off
629. Patrap
1:47 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
Katrinas Peak before Landfall.Visible Aug 28th Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
628. Patrap
1:41 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
MODIS Truecolor - Aug 29, 19:15 UTCLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
627. Patrap
1:40 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
MODIS Truecolor - Aug 28, 17:00 UTCLink
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
626. Patrap
1:36 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
GOES Ch3 Water Vapour - Aug 28-Aug31
Life cycle of Katrina ( Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
625. hurricane23
1:34 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
Yea patrap and thankfully weakened to CAT3 status right before landfall.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13787
624. Patrap
1:33 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
Pre-storm Analysis
Loop Current and warm core rings that assisted in the intensification of Katrina. Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
622. hurricane23
1:30 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
Piece of the NHC discussion from 8:05pm

Not to worry in my opinion as i believe the pending TROF should kick this area out to sea.

NOW OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS A SFC LOW
THAT THE NWP MODELS DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WHERE THERE IS
ALREADY AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13787
619. Patrap
1:23 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
Satellite Images
Sea Surface Temperature Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
617. PBG00
1:20 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
I am north of West Palm..will check out your site
Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 6650
616. Patrap
1:18 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
Google earth with MODIS imagery overlay Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
615. hurricane23
1:18 AM GMT on May 17, 2007
Glad to see a few south florida residents on iam also form south florida actually live a few blocks from were the best of the best are located-NHC.I have a pages dedicated to florida weather on my site.

Adrian's Weather
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13787

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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