Andrea's smoke a major hazard

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:43 PM GMT on May 12, 2007

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Andrea refuses to totally die. Thunderstorm activity associated with the remnant low continues to flare up, and wind shear remains low enough (10 knots) to permit redevelopment of this system. Current radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows some disorganized rainbands surrounding the center of the storm, and infrared satellite loops show intermittent bursts of thunderstorms, particularly to the east of the center. The activity as seen on radar and satellite is not very organized, and any redevelopment of Andrea should be slow to occur. However, the remains of Andrea have some tropical storm force winds of 45-55 mph a few hundred miles east of the center, as seen in this morning's 7:29am EDT QuikSCAT pass. Water vapor loops show some very dry air around the remnants of Andrea, and sea surface temperatures are still a rather cool 24-26 C. By Sunday, wind shear will increase to near 20 knots, and a trough of low pressure is expected to finally move Andrea's remains out to sea.

NHC put out this special advisory at 9pm today:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
900 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2007

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THIS MORNING...AND IS CURRENTLY ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE LOW IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND A CONTINUED MOTION AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


Figure 1. True color image from NASA's Terra satellite of the remains of Andrea off the coast of Florida at 12:30 pm EDT Friday May 11, 2007. The counter-clockwise circulation around the storm fanned fires (red dots near the Florida/Georiga border) and drew the smoke all the way along the length of Florida, and into the center of the storm. Note the huge area of smoke covering the Gulf Of Mexico, blown there on previous days. Image credit:NASA.

Andrea and the Florida/Georgia fires
The strong winds of Andrea fanned the huge fires burning in the Florida/Georgia border region, and the counterclockwise flow of air around the low drew the smoke over the entire length of Florida yesterday. The Air Quality Index (AQI) for particle pollution reached the "Very Unhealthy" level between 10am and 5pm yesterday in both Tampa and St. Petersburg. "Very Unhealthy" values trigger a health alert, meaning everyone may experience more serious health effects. For several hours the AQI exceeded 300 in both cities. An AQI of 300 is the threshold for "Hazardous" air pollution, which the EPA defines as "Health warnings of emergency conditions. The entire population is more likely to be affected". Air quality in the Tampa Bay area was among the worst ever measured there; at the USMC Reserve Center monitoring site in Hillborough County, particulate matter pollution reached 753 micrograms per cubic meter, and the 24 hour average was 198--nearly six times the federal standard of 35 micrograms per cubic meter.

Fortunately, residents seem to be paying attention to the air pollution advisories. "Area hospitals reported just a handful of patients complaining about breathing problems, which was an encouraging sign for health officials who say people with poor health seem to be heeding warnings to stay inside", according to the St. Petersburg Times. But there's no doubt that the pollution is very dangerous. Take a look at this comment posted on the Tampa Bay Tribune web site yesterday:


After my mile walk this evening at 11pm, I felt tired and weak at the knees later about midnight my heart pounded fast and hard. I have slight chest pain, anxiety comes in waves, lying down is worse, my throat feels opened up and there.s too much cold air, my throat is scratchy and my lungs are sore. I might need to call 911 It.s now 2:45am sometimes I feel like I might die. like my heart may explode. I was OK yesterday. An hour later I was feeling better thank God! I've wondered if it was the smoke in the air from the brush fires. I checked my resting heart rate before and it was 100 beats a minute. Now it's 56 beats a minute. I went to bed at 4:00am however I woke up 3 hours later 7am I started getting mild symptoms again. I found a face mask. It does help.


People with heart or lung disease, older adults, and children should avoid all physical activity outdoors during the heavy smoke conditions. Everyone else should avoid prolonged or heavy exertion. Pay attention to the air pollution advisories issued for your area. This air pollution episode has the potential to be far more deadly than any hurricane that has affected Florida over the past 79 years!

Jeff Masters

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321. starbuck89
4:01 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
What if we run out of names before the season STARTS

rofl. That'll be the day...
320. RL3AO
4:00 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
I was a little surprised the NHC didn't re-initiate it as a depression yesterday, but it doesnt matter.
319. HurricaneGeek
3:56 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
Welcome jride!!
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
318. Patrap
3:56 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
All the tropical models can be found ..or links to them on the tropical page of the wunderground near the bottom...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
317. HurricaneGeek
3:55 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
What if we run out of names before the season STARTS
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
316. jride
3:55 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
excuse me, as it's my first time on...

Any info. on these two systems on GFS these next two weeks? One (ITCZ - Central America) shows to hit SW Florida near 28 May 07.... after the one near Leeward works it way towards New England (next week)...

Where can I go to find more models?

Thanks...
315. starbuck89
3:53 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
Probably at least one more depression in May.
314. Patrap
3:44 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
OMG..Its a Depression and its heading WEST! 0
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
313. HurricaneGeek
3:34 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
like 17th IKE? LOL
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
312. IKE
3:31 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
The way this pattern is...looking at computer models...I'll say yes too. The last 10 days of May.

Looking at that blob heading NW off of South America...it might be sooner!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
311. HurricaneGeek
3:27 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
u mean more named storms. Yes barry by may 17
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
310. weatherblog
3:26 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
Posted By: IKE at 3:21 PM GMT on May 13, 2007.

The question is: Do you think there will be any named storms this May?...please enter and answer. Cut-off date is May 15th.

There already has been!


Ooops. Said the question wrong. This is it: Do you think there will be any more named storms this May?

lol..
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
309. IKE
3:21 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
The question is: Do you think there will be any named storms this May?...please enter and answer. Cut-off date is May 15th.

There already has been!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
308. weatherblog
3:16 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
Hey guys. You guys are right-- time to watch the caribbean. dun dun duhn! lol

We should keep an eye on the caribbean, even though there is no invests there. But since the time of year is coming round for caribbean development, we should keep a watchful eye.

Anyways, check out my blog called Polls/Voting Game. The question is: Do you think there will be any named storms this May?...please enter and answer. Cut-off date is May 15th. Thanks.

-Justin~
Member Since: July 10, 2006 Posts: 27 Comments: 1623
307. HurricaneGeek
3:12 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
HEllO TURTLE and GUY
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
306. TheStormGuy
3:08 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
Time to stick a fork in Andrea. Now time to watch the Caribbean for development.

Link
305. turtlehurricane
3:02 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
Andrea is dead now, the shear got it last night. Before it got sheared, it looked impressive.

Time to wait for the real season :)
Member Since: July 22, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 469
304. Patrap
3:00 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
The 10day GFSx....and the Blip Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
303. HurricaneGeek
2:51 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
That blob in the SW carib looks interesting
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
302. HurricaneGeek
2:50 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
Sorry I ment MZT
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
301. TheCaneWhisperer
2:49 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
Time is near! 1 Checked off the board already! 386 time frame seems about reasonable, or at least, more believeable givin the atmosphereic trends. We all know SST's aren't a problem in the Caribbean right now.

Morning all, cough, COUGH! Morning cup O' Joe is just not as enjoyable with smoke filled air!
300. Patrap
2:49 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
"Preparation through education is less costly than learning through tragedy."
- BILL PROENZA, DIRECTOR
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

This year Hurricane Preparedness Week is May 20-26, 2007
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
299. HurricaneGeek
2:48 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
I see what you mean MTZ. However I believe that they have criteia to follow for naming systems and if it should be named, they would name it. They do not care what the media says. If it should remain un named they won't
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
298. MZT
2:45 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
The NHC may decide to rebadge Andrea as a depression in the post-season analysis. It's not all that important a distinction, and they may not want Weather Channel and the public to get too worked up over a "restrengthening" Andrea.

We *DO* know from experience (1993) that the NHC deliberately avoids naming systems sometimes.

What's out there isn't much, but it looks about as good a system as the "unnamed" one they identified at the end of 2006.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
297. Bamawatcher
2:38 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
Man that blob moving off of Columbia looks angry.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 46
296. johnbone
1:49 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
The atmospheric pattern is begining to change. Fewer and fewer troughs are digging into the S. Atlantic. Soon there will be none, and the International Convergence zone will become the dominent player in the atlantic.
Member Since: May 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
294. starbuck89
1:14 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
Andrea is gone and smoke still lingers....sigh.
293. hurricane23
1:02 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
Also wanted to spread the word of the new website hosted by bryan norcross and max mayfield its set to by announced at the NHC conference this week.

You cant go wrong with Max and Bryan to of the best.

Prominent forecasters launch 1-stop storm help on Web.

Two of the nation's most prominent hurricane forecasters are launching a new crusade to help Americans deal with storms and other disasters -- and they hope to enlist recruits during this week's major hurricane conference in Fort Lauderdale.

''This may be the most important thing I've ever done,'' said Max Mayfield, former director of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County.

He and television forecaster Bryan Norcross are developing an Internet clearinghouse for preparedness and post-disaster advisories issued by government emergency managers in South Florida and around the nation.

More Here
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
292. HIEXPRESS
1:02 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
GFS> Generating Fabricated Storms
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2155
291. hurricane23
12:38 PM GMT on May 13, 2007
Interesting stuff from the GFS this morning but cant be taken to seriously as its very long-range and will probably change in the next run.But one thing to make note the GFS has indeed been indicateing some kind of development in the caribbean for a while now and basically taken it north.Overall the time of year is fast approaching so we'll see what happens.

(348hrs)

fff

(360hrs)

ggg

(384hrs)

fff
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
290. ForecasterColby
10:55 AM GMT on May 13, 2007
GFS is quite accurate, but we're talking weeks out. No model is accurate at that timeframe.
289. dewfree
10:26 AM GMT on May 13, 2007
probably the same system meandering around lol
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
288. dewfree
10:23 AM GMT on May 13, 2007
i ;ike the GFS model or could you tell he he anyway .not necesarely accurate but it hints to what is to come and as far a as a model goes that is good enough in comparrison to other models it is fine .they all flip flop and get it wrong but they all hint as well if we were to combine the models then i htink that we would still only have 30 percent accuracy but i have seen the GFS hit is dead on 16 days out so it cant be all wrong he he
have a good one . Dew
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
287. dewfree
10:20 AM GMT on May 13, 2007
why you say the GFS is unreliable humm if that is so then what are you doing bother even looking at it humm hehe he hehe he ooh me
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
285. stormhank
5:26 AM GMT on May 13, 2007
hey bro u here
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1382
284. HurricaneRoman
5:16 AM GMT on May 13, 2007
hello
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 958
282. stormhank
4:25 AM GMT on May 13, 2007
Hello anyone awake in here???? LOL.
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1382
280. johnbone
3:39 AM GMT on May 13, 2007
Hello. I have been lurking on this blog for a few years, but I just decided to join.

Andrea (and her former, extratropical self) have been toying with us for almost a week now. She just will not give up! Her newest burst of convection has continued to flair, and because of this the NWS might rename her. However, her time to live is almost up. By Monday, she will merge with the incoming front, possibly becoming extratropicl again.

I think that the determining factor will be Andrea's speed. If she slows down and remains over the gulf stream, I would give her a decent chance to Become a TD. Otherwise, a combination of cooler SST's and higher shear caused by the front will rip her to pieces.

I predict she will survive long enough to become a TD, but will quickly become extratropical.
Member Since: May 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 53
279. TheStormGuy
2:36 AM GMT on May 13, 2007
It looks a tad bit more organized right now...11PM advisory will be interesting.

Discussion here also: Link
278. Patrap
2:36 AM GMT on May 13, 2007
GOM SST's Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
276. runnin87
2:13 AM GMT on May 13, 2007
I think this is a bit to much to do about not much of nothing. Still back lash from the days of Katrina and Rita. Hardly a thunder storm this thing, and folks go ga, ga.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
274. HIEXPRESS
1:58 AM GMT on May 13, 2007
Posted By: HurricaneRoman at 1:40 AM GMT on May 13, 2007.
Andrea did millions of dollars in damage to the beaches
I believe you're right. I am going tomorrow to check it out.
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2155
272. stormhank
1:54 AM GMT on May 13, 2007
Hey HR u comin to chat
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1382

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.