Andrea not dead yet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:53 PM GMT on May 11, 2007

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NHC declared Andrea dead last night, but thunderstorm activity has flared up again on the storm's southeast side this morning, and Andrea may be making a comeback. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low until Sunday. Current radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows a marked increase in rainbands along the southeast side of the low, and recent infrared satellite loops show a burst of thunderstorms with cloud tops developing there. Buoy 41009 23 miles east of Cape Canaveral has not shown much change in winds today, which have been running 23-28 mph. This morning's 7:29am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed top winds in the 30-35 mph range--tropical depression strength. If the storm had had its current presentation at 11pm last night, NHC would have kept it as a subtropical depression. However, the more organized appearance may just be a transitory burst, and the storm will have to continue to improve in appearance until late this afternoon in order to regain her name. That's not going to be easy, given that water vapor loops show some very dry air around the remnants of Andrea, and sea surface temperatures are still a rather cool 24-26 C. I give Andrea a 30% chance of regaining her name over the next 24 hours.

Andrea's remains continue to drift south at about 5 mph, but most of the models show it stalling by Saturday, then getting swept out to sea on Sunday. So it appears now that even if Andrea does make a comeback, it will not bring Florida much in the way of needed rainfall. Bermuda may encounter some gale force winds early next week when the remnants of Andrea interact with an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to develop between Bermuda and the U.S. coast.

NHC had this to say about Andrea's remnants at 3pm today:

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...BUT IT LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

INTERESTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image at 7:15 GMT Friday May 11 2007.

Interesting infrared satellite image
This morning's 7:15 GMT infrared satellite image of Florida (Figure 1) shows an interesting feature--the fires burning along the Georgia/Florida border. These fires are so hot that they are visible on the infrared satellite image. Infrared satellite images are a map of heat energy emitted, and where the hot fires are burning, we see black pixels. The high, cold cloud tops of the thunderstorms surrounding the remnants of Subtropical Depression Andrea show up white.

Other blogs
The View From the Surface blog shows a nice satellite animation of yesterday's Florida/Georgia fires, and Mike Theiss has posted more photos of his chases in Tornado Alley during last week's incredible severe weather outbreak.

My next update will depend on the weather--
Jeff Masters

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929. dewfree
3:32 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
well so far she has survived so why or what reason would we have to believe other wise
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
928. Bobbyweather
1:58 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
Hi. Do you really think Andrea will survive again?
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
927. K8eCane
1:55 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
oh


MORNIN SJ
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3076
926. K8eCane
1:54 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
whats that thing in the gulf??




nothing
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3076
925. K8eCane
1:53 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
cant help but notice andrea remants lookin kind of healthy this morning
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3076
924. HurricaneRoman
1:51 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
whats that thing in the gulf??
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 958
923. HurricaneRoman
1:49 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
I agree.. she has a lot of convection but hse is disorganized..... is this thing gonna move out to sea?
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 958
922. homegirl
1:48 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
OK, now someone say, "i've seen less become a cat 5!!"

Then someone say "even if it did reform it will be picked up and taken out to sea"

Next "Someone wishcast it west"

Finally "it's an eye! a pinhole eye!!"

OK, it's all done, no need to have this discussion again.
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 7425
921. Skyepony (Mod)
1:45 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
homegirl~ possible recon flight isn't til this afternoon. They haven't put out the flight plan for the day yet. So no conformation either way.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
920. 1900hurricane
1:45 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
919. ryang
1:44 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
It has a good spin as well.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12419
918. StormJunkie
1:44 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
Morning y'all, good to see everyone.

Dang kris, you sure have taken a 180 stance on this thing since last night ☺

She is really disorganized now. Lots of convection though...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15752
917. Patrap
1:42 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
Alas..maybe. But Fla will get relief from the west. Not the east.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
916. 1900hurricane
1:42 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
Here's are some loops of Andria

AVN IR Loop
WV Loop
RGB Loop
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
915. weatherboykris
1:41 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
Yes Patrap,it is a wimp.But it could get renamed later today when the reocn fly.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
914. weatherboykris
1:40 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
913. Patrap
1:39 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
LOL..IVe got toilets with lower pressure..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
912. weatherboykris
1:38 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
Pressure at this buoy...which went through the center,bottomed out at 1005mb.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
911. weatherboykris
1:36 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
910. weatherboykris
1:35 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
Quite impressive compared to last night.Or for that matter,to any other time during the storm's life:

Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
909. dewfree
1:35 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
very fuuny tell me what is that turning out thier a clyclone or what
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
907. dewfree
1:29 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
aNDREA IS ON THE MOVE BACK TO WHERE SHE WAS BORN
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
906. homegirl
1:25 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
So, just scattered showers and thunderstorms. Hmm?
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 7425
905. Patrap
1:22 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
There is NO storm..just a remnant Low being Monitored

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SMALL 1004 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND
DAYTONA BEACH NEAR 29N79W. THE PRESSURE OF THIS LOW HAS DROPPED
DURING THE NIGHT BUT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 74W-80W. WHILE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
904. dewfree
1:20 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
they are going tohave to redesignate this storm

Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
903. homegirl
1:15 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
Looks like there is still a coc and moisture to spare this morning. Did or is recon going out?? They have a TCPOD for today.
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 7425
902. weathersp
1:11 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
o_0 ^^
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
901. Patrap
1:09 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
SAturday
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
900. dewfree
1:07 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
I thik that is Andrea .humm no brainer
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
899. dewfree
1:06 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
Very nice graphic MIcheal!!
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
898. dewfree
1:05 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
Well i admit when i am wrong and do it on such a regular basis that it really doesnt hurt my ego to admit when i am wrong .geez this system doesnt not want to go away . .ooh well i guess another day is another day in the rumper room "tropical roundup"good morn to you all and no im not afraid to be wrong !!!
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
897. homegirl
1:02 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
OK, If Andrea is dead then what is going on off the east coast of florida? Just thunderstorms???
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 7425
896. seflagamma
1:00 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
I see our Andrea didn't make a comeback last night... Oh well, she didn't bring the rain we needed anyway so "Begone with the wench!" LOL!

Now give us a TD or small TS with some rain! LOL

Happy Saturday, busy at work so will only take a peek during breaks.

Have a great weekend and be nice to your mother's tomorrow!!!!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40882
895. IKE
12:31 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
On that visible it looks like some of the moisture from the leftovers of Andrea is getting drawn into the ULL over the gulf. A portion of Andrea is flairing up on her eastern side...appears to be heading NE.

It's almost adious for Andrea.

Wonder if they'll cancel the flight. SAVE THE GAS!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
894. MZT
12:27 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
I will not let myself spend all Saturday blob watching. Gonna go clean my gutters before it gets hot outside.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
893. HurricaneGeek
12:24 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
Good morning all.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
892. Patrap
12:23 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
The GFSx takes the Caribean Low North then out to sea...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
891. TheCaneWhisperer
12:21 PM GMT on May 12, 2007
Here I sit! Staring down the coffee pot, HURRY UP, lol! Morning all! Yeah, I agree about the dry air! She kept trying to fire but sputtered!

Low in the Caribbean @ 72hrs
889. MZT
11:52 AM GMT on May 12, 2007
"Andrea" disappoints again. Who'd a thunk it?
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
888. hurricane23
11:30 AM GMT on May 12, 2007
Hey stormw...

Cant wait till next year as hopefully i will be done with school at rosential.Look to finish up in april 2008.

Anyway not much change with the leftovers of andrea overnight as the pressure dropped some but conditions are not favorable for tropical cyclone development at this time.Should get scooped up by the approaching cold-front.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13636
886. ricderr
11:05 AM GMT on May 12, 2007
a


no one's left out......
saturday love fest........


to all my friends on the doc blog
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 672 Comments: 21435
884. hurricane23
8:28 AM GMT on May 12, 2007
Andrea or atleast whats left of here remains rather weak with the stongest winds i found were at 20-25kts around the low with some scattered thunderstorm activity to the south around 26N-30N.Some slight chance of restrengthing as it heads out to sea and gets picked up by the approaching cold-front.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13636
883. TREKZEN
6:19 AM GMT on May 12, 2007
No, but the Pixies did.
Everyone here does it every damned day.
and.. all of the kids in Iraq.
882. Inyo
5:21 AM GMT on May 12, 2007
Posted By: Jedkins at 4:30 AM GMT on May 12, 2007.
the surface low has died, its chances of raising itself from the dead are quite low as only one in history raised himself from the dead and that was Jesus lol


well what about Lazarus? I guess he didn't raise himself
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
881. scCane
5:17 AM GMT on May 12, 2007
its seems what is holding andrea back is not the shear rather dry air most likely since no after noonheat no moisture is able to come up but if you notice in sc moisture is coming from the trough maybe that will break up all the dry air I think right now andrea is to weak to get picked up but in the afternoon tomorrow it could easly strenthen and get picked up will have to wait to see.
Member Since: May 9, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 154
879. TheCaneWhisperer
4:45 AM GMT on May 12, 2007
Anyone notice the WAVE in the Western Caribb on the 72hr Surface Map?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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