Andrea slowly weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on May 10, 2007

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Subtropical Storm Andrea has weakened this morning, and currently poses little threat to land--other than some minor beach erosion along the Georgia and northern Florida coasts. Storm tides are running about one foot above normal in these areas, with 2-4 foot surf. Andrea's satellite presentation shows a classic example of a weak storm experiencing significant wind shear. Most of the heavy thunderstorm activity is displaced to the east side of the storm, pushed there by strong upper level winds from the northwest and west. Wind shear is about 20 knots, and is expected to remain this high for another day, then decrease by Saturday. The organization of the spiral bands of rainfall visible on the Jacksonville, FL long range radar is poor. The top winds found by the Hurricane Hunters this morning at their flight level of 1000 feet were 41 mph, as of 9:20am EDT. The central pressure had risen to 1003 mb, according to their 9:20am center fix, and Andrea may get downgraded to a tropical depression later today. The GFS model is calling for Andrea to dissipate by Saturday, and given the marginal Sea Surface Temperatures (24-25 C), significant dry air surrounding the system, and strong wind shear, NHC is also calling for dissipation. However, there is a good possibility that Andrea could hang on and eventually get swept out to sea, as the GFDL model is calling for. In this scenario, Andrea could intensify early next week and threaten Bermuda as a strong subtropical storm.


Figure 1. Forecast smoke levels at 11am EDT Thursday, May 10 from NOAA's air quality computer model. Note the ring of smoke encircling Jacksonville, due to the counterclockwise flow of air around Andrea. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 2. Observed levels of fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) over Florida. Orange circles mark cities where the air is "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", and people with heart or lung disease, older adults, and children should reduce prolonged or heavy exertion in these areas. Image credit: EPA.

Andrea and the Florida/Georgia fires
The counter-clockwise circulation of air around Andrea's center of low pressure can be seen in the forecast movement of smoke from the fires burning in northern Florida and Southeastern Georgia (Figure 1). The Hurricane Hunters reported that dense smoke was obscuring visibility over the ocean waters near Jacksonville during their mission into Andrea this morning--the first time I've ever seen that observation during a hurricane hunter mission. This smoke is expected to form a ring encircling Jacksonville, and an air pollution alert for unhealthy levels of particulate matter pollution has been posted today for that city. Particulate matter pollution advisories have also been posted along a swath from Orlando to Miami. People with heart or lung disease, older adults, and children should reduce prolonged or heavy exertion in these areas. A map of current particulate matter pollution levels is posted in Figure 2. Wunderblogger aquak9 has a Floriga/Georgia fire blog for those interested in conversing about the fires.

Rainfall from Andrea has been less than 0.3 inches across the fires zones, which is not enough to douse them. Andrea is a very dry storm; peak rainfall rates are only about 0.25 inches per hour, in the storm's southeastern rainbands. These rainbands are not expected to hit the coast in the next two days. Maximum total rainfall observed by the Jacksonville radar has been less than 1.5 inches.

I'll have an update Friday morning, unless some significant change in Andrea occurs today. The 8am QuikSCAT pass missed Andrea; the next pass is at about 8pm. The next Hurricane Hunter mission is not until 8am Friday.

Jeff Masters

I CAN MAKE IT! (dab)
I CAN MAKE IT! ...no I can't.
I CAN MAKE IT!
Smokey Florida Sunrise (Peacefulbon)
Southwest Florida is being affected by the fires burning on the Georgia/Florida border, some 300 miles away. The smoke plume reduced visability to less than half a mile yesterday, and this morning resulted in this hazy sun at 8 a.m.
Smokey Florida Sunrise

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596. weathermanwannabe
3:19 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
If Andrea does re-develop as a result of her present meandering near the Gulf Stream (she has a mind of her own), and surprise us all, it does still appear that she would be swept out to sea in about 24 hours as opposed to bringing any relief to Florida...
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595. guygee
2:55 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Please just RAIN RAIN RAIN - Everyone I know is getting sick from the smoke...
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594. HIEXPRESS
2:20 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
GS is clairvoyant.
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593. Thundercloud01221991
1:59 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
New blog
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592. StormJunkie
1:55 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Well said Dew :~)

lol GS ☺

Dang the southern side looks good...
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590. dewfree
1:51 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
ooh me yea good morn their storm he he i like the subtropical low called Andrea ;she is giving me and you guys something to talk about rather then forest fires and tornado or some other weather fenomenon.I bleieve this is what this blog was intended for at least in the beginning . i Bet DR.Masters gets a cick out of all us and our opinions .I know i would and do .It really doesnt matter to me what this low does as long as i see differing opionions i know im in the right place .Some may take this blog and thier opinion serious enolugh to call names and poke fun at others reiterating what they say but i just plain enjoy listening to you guys and your thoughts .The world of sience inst nothing like this.Sience is too serious and bland going on facts but here we all have another means of learning and it stands out too.ya never know maybe a new therory will come from it and maybe a new fact just from the thoughts of another during one of many opinions based in part fact and in part therory.Iether way i enjoy it especially when thier isnt a threat but still something of a topic around the tropical roundup DR.MAsters blog .whitch by the way is a very good name for this Blog!!!![Tropical Roundup}
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589. MahFL
1:50 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Problem is all the models take her to Bermuda or there abouts.....
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588. Thundercloud01221991
1:47 PM GMT on May 11, 2007


look at this the chance of hurricane is going UP???
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587. StormJunkie
1:43 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Morning Gam,GS, and HD ☺


That southern band is impressive. So glad we have her on radar. Get a much better idea when you can see radar and satillite loops.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15924
586. hurricanedave
1:43 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
It appears to me that the remaines of ANDREA may come back to life today.
The convection around the center has been getting much better this am and is trying to get outflow going to the north.
585. StormJunkie
1:42 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Moisture is trying to build in the NW quad, but it is still having a very hard time. If it does not wrap this moisture around she is done.

I still think she finally has warm enough water though.
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583. seflagamma
1:40 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Just read this mornings posts.

Hello everyone!!! I don't care if she weakens or strengthens just let her have some rain buildup and get it over Florida RIGHT NOW! LOL!

from the last graphics she does look a little better than last night; just wish she could get some rain bans going.

Everyone have a great day and will pop in and out during breaks as much as possible for updates.
Gams
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582. HIEXPRESS
1:38 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
As close as the low is to the Florida coast, diurnal effects may toll on it today - we have strong sea breezes here & our high temp is forecast at 87F to 90F farther inland.
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581. nash28
1:36 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Jed- Great analysis man! She is capping, which has created a blanket effect that is not allowing the smoke to leave the surface levels.

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580. IKE
1:35 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Agree...it's @ 78, 20 miles east of Cape Canaveral.
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579. Comatose
1:34 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Andrea is directly east of us at the moment.
We're getting periodic rain/sprinkles and some moderate winds. It's been like this since last night, about 6pm-ish.
578. thelmores
1:34 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
"Posted By: Jedkins
Its a remnant surface low people, she is no longer Andrea"

Jed..... until there is "nothing" left, it is "still" Andrea.....

Remember the storm that went ashore on the gulf coast, exited the east coast, crossed florida, and re-entered the gulf a second time..... it kept its name.

honestly, it is nothing to argue over.... but Andrea is still there! if you wanna call it the "remnants" of Andrea, that's fine too! :)
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577. StormJunkie
1:33 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Morning Jed, Dew, and Hi

Jed, she looks like she is over about 80 degree water if you ask me? Find that link here also.
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576. IKE
1:31 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
The way those thunderstorms have fired up almost near the COC...if she drifts back west...could be some beneficial rain.

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575. dewfree
1:27 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
He HE Andrea isn't gone yet !wonder if she will disappear . I think even though rather week that as long as Andrea is over the gulf stream it will remain ;maybe not a threat of anykind but remain untill a trough picks it up and tows it out to the north east further out to sea .Only one more day and forecasted shear will reduce given way to opportunity .Now Andrea is only if at all just above depression .Andrea certainly has stuck around and give you and me something to talk abolut and if nothing else then she has done her job ;HeHE ooh me have avery good day : {Dew}
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 589
574. HIEXPRESS
1:24 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
The I-witness weather (I look out the window & I witness the weather).

I am about 30 miles inland right across from where the remnants of Andrea are just off the coast. When I went outside, whoa - warm (76F), humid (77%), A good breeze out of the North (Sorry, I dont't know where the local WU member weather stations have their anemometers, but they're not in the wind). The main thing is the clouds - they look like a tropical system. They show me a different wind profile for the storm than what I have been seeing on the graphical displays. Rather than all levels spinning together, the winds above me change direction with heightwith the higher clouds deflecting to the right. Maybe its just the increased shear being reported, maybe high pressure is getting established aloft. Keep an "I" on it.

And now for your extended forecast:
Ffffooorrreeeeccccaaassssttttt.
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
573. Jedkins
1:24 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Its a remnant surface low people, she is no longer Andrea, although it looks rather impressive from yeterday, thats because shear has weakened some, but this has spun down too much to recover over 75 degree waters.

Folks those waters just aren't warm enough for a battered up surface low that was once a weak subtropical storm to redevelop.


Theres always an outside chance that it still could re-energize, but who the heck would want it to? Its just capping the atmosphere over Florida and actually drying things out instea of giving rain.
572. StormJunkie
1:22 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Well there is still a good bit of dry air around...
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571. skibrian95
1:20 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
i copied Chessrascal's post...he is the one that said 30% chance...

...not sure if that was clear in my last post.
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570. skibrian95
1:18 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
"Posted By: skibrian95 at 1:56 AM GMT on May 11, 2007.
anyone noticed that in the last hour, andrea has developed some real nice inner bands all the way around, except a gap in the north?

is shear decreasing? any recent data?

could she resurrect? she is right over some pretty warm water flow...a post yesterday said that the area she is in can move as fast as 2m a second...is she getting replenished heat quickly despite her upwelling winds (which are settling down)

COULD there be a large strengthening tonight?

if shear is down, the dry air is mixing out...maybe?

i guess you all know, I am just hoping for an almight downpour and anything is looking like good news.

infrared sattellite looks terrible, water vapor does too...though dry air is slowly getting wrapped out of the way and shoved on to the SE of her....

....hoping for an overnight strengthening...these storms should be calming down if they were due to daytime heating...

I'D GIVE ANDREA ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT. ANYONE AGREE?"

--Chessrascal "called' it...gave it more chance than anyone.

I only went with 15% chance myself...thought i saw too much shearing on the radar echo (sure as hell never seriously thought CAT 2!!)
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569. IKE
1:16 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
She's not history.
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568. StormJunkie
1:15 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
That is why I love the Foreguessers so much thel...lol
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567. thelmores
1:14 PM GMT on May 11, 2007



Andrea looks better today than yesterday!


will be interesting to see if Andrea can complete her comeback. I swear I thought she was history last nite! That'll teach me! DOH!
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566. skibrian95
1:09 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
I just like to enter a room with a flourish, rather than a simple "mornin"
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565. StormJunkie
1:09 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Sorry ski, I meant to say NE side earlier. I went back and corrected the post. The NW side does look decent.
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564. StormJunkie
1:07 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Convection still building on the SE side. NW side still drying out though. Looks to be moving mostly S right now.
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563. skibrian95
1:07 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
the gap was on the due north side last nite...seems to be trying to wrap around, it's now on the NW...or are you seeing something else? looks like NE is closing off...I'll really be convinced if a second band fires up to the NW and west...haven't seen that in days, and would indicate true tropical convection...at least, that is one sign for me going on my past hurricane watching. not sure what the scientific definition is.
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562. spiceymonster
1:06 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
In everyone's opinon, what do you think the dust off the desert will do to this years season.

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561. StormJunkie
1:04 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Well I could have put a picture of the bird up, figured this would be a little better...lol That is what happens around here when you say stuff like she is gonna be a Cat 2 in the am....Crow gets served often in these parts...lol ☺


...lmao!
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560. skibrian95
1:03 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
still...i ain't eatin that crow....not without TONS of Gates BBQ sauce!
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559. StormJunkie
1:02 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Yep ski. This is the most interesting Andrea has been in days if you ask me. Althugh I still can not get past that NW side. With out filling that in....I just don't know.
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558. skibrian95
1:01 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
did you have to put that picture up? at least it wasn't babs streisand!
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557. skibrian95
12:59 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
91% humidity here in orlando...that's a change over the last week...by this time in the morning, we've been looking at 65% or so and falling.

air mass is changing....
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556. skibrian95
12:57 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
in all seriousness...
this is interesting...last nite you could almost see the shear...the center looked like an egg from NW to SE. And the big storms of the SE quadrant kept blowing out to see rather than banding around.

tighter circle this morning...this anorexic lady just doesn't seem to want to die...
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555. StormJunkie
12:55 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Morning ski. Here is a healthy serving of Crow for you.

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554. IKE
12:52 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
The unreliable NAM model takes Andrea toward south central Florida...then kicks her out to sea.

The GFS does about the same and intensifies her in the north Atlantic...I guess extratropical.

What both models due is hint at something/moisture in the NW Caribbean sea in about 3 to 4 days.

The GFS spins up a 1012mb low off of the SE coast of Florida by next Wednesday...from the moisture down in the Caribbean...Link

The NAM runs out at 84 hours and has the moisture being drawn up toward Cuba...Link
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553. StormJunkie
12:51 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Hey there Little. Welcome.

Sorry to hear about the ash. I know y'all need some rain. Maybe Andrea will do us all a favor and kick some up today.
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552. skibrian95
12:50 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
damn...i said i'd wake up and we'd be looking at a CAT 2 heading to the Space Coast...boy was I wrong!!
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551. StormJunkie
12:49 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
It really does look like it is trying to build moisture around the center. That NE side is still giving it hell though.
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550. HurricaneGeek
12:49 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
the andrea looks ok
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549. StormJunkie
12:48 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
lol thel. Yep, big boss is gonna be up there this week. I hear next week though is the crazy week. Use to go up there for spring break in high school. It was always during bike week. Can not even begin to tell the stories...it was fun trouble all the way around...☺
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548. thelmores
12:47 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
Don't look dissipating anymore! LOL
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547. Littleninjagrl
12:47 PM GMT on May 11, 2007
I live in Tampa, Fl and right now the smoke is pretty thick. My truck is slightly covered with ash. I really hoped this storm would have brought at least some rain to help releive some of the fires.
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546. thelmores
12:46 PM GMT on May 11, 2007


Still heading south..... slowly! LOL


SJ, MYB is great! The last two days have been gorgeous..... The bikers are starting to show..... gonna be a crazy weekend! LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.