Andrea no help for Florida's fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:26 PM GMT on May 09, 2007

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Subtropical Storm Andrea has changed little since it was named at 11am today. The amount of thunderstorm activity has decreased on the storm's west side, but become a little more concentrated on the east side. The organization of the spiral bands of rainfall visible on the Jacksonville, FL long range radar has remained about the same, and winds at some of the offshore buoys have remained fairly constant. Andrea remains a sloppy, disorganized storm. The main threat from the storm is coastal erosion due to the pounding surf it is generating--plus a possible fanning of the fires burning in Florida and Georgia (see below).

Wind shear has increased from 10 knots this morning to about 25 knots this evening. Shear is expected to increase to over 30 knots late tonight. Given the unfavorable wind shear, and the fact that the storm is over waters of 24-25 degrees C, I don't expect any significant intensification of Andrea. A slow decay as forecast by NHC seems reasonable.

Andrea and the Florida/Georgia fires
As Andrea began to form on Tuesday off the Carolina coast, the counter-clockwise circulation of air around the center of low pressure brought northerly winds over northern Florida and southern Georgia, where significant fires are burning. These north winds blew the smoke from the fires into the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, where unhealthy levels of particulate matter air pollution were recorded (Figure 1). The storm moved far enough west and south today that a more westerly flow of air has been carrying the smoke out over the Atlantic. Rainfall from Andrea has been less than 0.3 inches across the fires zones, which is not enough to douse them; in fact, the storm's high winds have served to fan the flames.

Andrea is a very dry storm; peak rainfall rates are only about 0.25 inches per hour, in the storm's southeastern rainbands. These rainbands are not expected to hit the coast in the next two days. Maximum total rainfall observed by the Jacksonville radar has been less than 1.5 inches.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS image of fires burning over Florida on May 8, 2007. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Early storms
The last time a named storm formed so early in the year was on April 18 2003, when Tropical Storm Ana formed near Bermuda. An unnamed subtropical storm also formed on April 21, 1992.

Longest period with a tropical cyclone ends
Andrea's formation brings to a close the longest period on record globally without a tropical cyclone. The last advisory issued on a tropical cyclone this year was at 06 GMT on April 6th, for Tropical Cyclone Cliff in the Southern Hemisphere. Today's 15 GMT advisory on Subtropical Storm Andrea ends the record longest period without a tropical cyclone at 33.4 days, besting the old record of 31.5 days set mid-April to mid-May in 1984. Reliable records of global tropical cyclone numbers go back to the beginning of the satellite era, about 1970.

I'll have an update in the morning. The next Quikscat pass is at about 8pm. The next Hurricane Hunter mission is not until 8am Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Smokey Florida Sunrise (Peacefulbon)
Southwest Florida is being affected by the fires burning on the Georgia/Florida border, some 300 miles away. The smoke plume reduced visability to less than half a mile yesterday, and this morning resulted in this hazy sun at 8 a.m.
Smokey Florida Sunrise
Smoke (BillyBob)
Smoke moving in to Central Florida from the fires in Georgia and Northern Florida created this interesting orange glow. I took this photo, this morning, looking east across Lake Henry near Winter Haven.
Smoke

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58. StormJunkie
11:59 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
StormJunkie.com Quick Links

Thanks lennon :~)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15626
57. StormJunkie
11:58 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
I agree with that BT.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15626
56. Rlennon
11:58 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
StormJunkie, can I get a link to your page I had to format my computer and lost the link.
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55. Bamatracker
11:57 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
nhc is guessin' at cordinates....throwing darts!
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53. sporteguy03
11:55 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Good Call JP your on the mark! I saw the coordinates further SW interesting.
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52. weatherboykris
11:54 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy at 11:54 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

Shear last night was 10 kts over Andrea and is forecast to be 30 kts tonight. That might strip any convection away. It will be interesting to see what happens.



I don't see that happening.The GFS is forecasting light shear,the NHC doesn't even mention shear.All due respect to Dr. Masters,but I don't see where he's getting that from.
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51. Rlennon
11:55 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
How long will the shear be around 30 kts?
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49. StormJunkie
11:53 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
lmao thel..

Got animosity sk?

Check out the orginal low level center moving down the coast just S of Hinesville. Pretty cool.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15626
46. Bamatracker
11:53 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
i still dont think she will make full tropical status or reintensify. The thunderstorm clouds have never gotten too high with this thing due to the stable airmass above it.
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45. sporteguy03
11:52 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
What will it take to end the fire situation in the Southeast other than Andrea is there any hope on the horizon or more smoke?
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43. weatherboykris
11:52 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Posted By: MZT at 11:51 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

Chris, Beryl, and The 2nd re-organization of "Ivan" were all very sloppy looking storms. I don't have a problem with a name being applied ot this one. The aircraft data from this mornign supported it.


Chris was not disorganized.Was a 'cane looking storm compared to this one.
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42. MZT
11:51 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
I don't think the shear will do Andrea in. This is a shallow, hybrid storm like Zeta and Epsilon.

If she behaves like the last couple of nights, by about 11:30PM we should be able to tell if the diurnal intensification is taking root. It's not that long a wait.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
40. thelmores
11:51 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Even Dr. M seems excited about the early start to the season! 3 blogs in one day seems a record for me! LOL


For all those who think Andrea does not deserver Her name......


Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3802
38. MZT
11:47 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Chris, Beryl, and The 2nd re-organization of "Ivan" were all very sloppy looking storms. I don't have a problem with a name being applied to this one. The aircraft data from this morning supported it.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
36. weatherboykris
11:49 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Posted By: stormybil at 11:46 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

lets wait till after midnight she sleeps in the daytime and comes alive after mid. this has happen for 3 days now shes a night bird .



I agree...we'll see a burst of convection tonight,which may push it to 55mph before finally going down in intensity.
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35. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:43 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
The last advisory issued on a tropical cyclone this year was at 06 GMT on April 6th, for Tropical Cyclone Cliff in the Southern Hemisphere.

-----------
there was a subtropical storm in the Southern Hemipshere in mid April, but anyway Cliff is a close reference to the last cyclone.
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32. RL3AO
6:49 PM CDT on May 09, 2007
Will we be looking at subtropical depression Andrea at 11?
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31. stormkat
11:45 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
you guys go by the models you will learn nada...try to make your own forecast on the storm by looking at the atmospheric conditions around the storm and you will come out much better then the computer models...look at the water vapor and the sst and also look where the azores high is setting up this year...thats a big factor for the gulf this year because we already have a strong la nina out there in the pacific....
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30. HurricaneRoman
11:45 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
I think she deserves the name.... I've seen worse storms with names..... Shes not the best storm but she is one...... But i dont see how she is subtropical anymore?
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28. stormybil
11:44 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
lets wait till after midnight she sleeps in the daytime and comes alive after mid. this has happen for 3 days now shes a night bird .
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27. Bamatracker
11:46 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
you better be sorry weatherboy!!
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26. weatherboykris
11:44 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Sorry for the double post.
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25. Rlennon
11:44 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
yes I did notice that
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24. weatherboykris
11:44 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Posted By: Rlennon at 11:37 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

If I read this right, they have it almost a warm core after strating out as a cool core.



Yes,but notice how it just meanders it off the FL coast.The UKMET's been saying that for two runs now.
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23. weatherboykris
11:43 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Posted By: Rlennon at 11:37 PM GMT on May 09, 2007.

If I read this right, they have it almost a warm core after strating out as a cool core.



Yes,but notice how it just meanders it off the FL coast.The UKMET's been saying that for two runs now.
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20. HurricaneRoman
11:41 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
she really cant mantain her convection but shes trying to make her self bigger ..if u noticed the rainbands are getting longer to the south
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18. StormJunkie
11:39 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
That is correct lennon.
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17. weatherboykris
11:40 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
If this were July Patrap...it'd have enough fuel.
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16. Tazmanian
4:38 PM PDT on May 09, 2007
Early storms
The last time a named storm formed so early in the year was on April 18 2003, when Tropical Storm Ana formed near Bermuda. An unnamed subtropical storm also formed on April 21, 1992


dr m what about this one back in 1952?

Main article: 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical

Storm
Tropical Storm One apparently was not aware of the usual seasonal limits, and formed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2. It moved quickly northeastward, hitting Florida the next day as a 50 mph tropical storm. The storm moved rapidly up the coast, and became extratropical on the 4th


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15. Patrap
6:31 PM CDT on May 09, 2007
40 frame 4hour loop. She has 3 lobes of moisture ..on the 248nm radar look.But its a very lean on Moisture. Like a carburator firing with not enough fuel 3
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14. kylejourdan2006
5:36 PM MDT on May 09, 2007
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
13. Rlennon
11:36 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
If I read this right, they have it almost a warm core after strating out as a cool core.
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12. RL3AO
6:34 PM CDT on May 09, 2007
Good stuff. Andrea. She came. She saw. She...fizzled.
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11. weatherboykris
11:33 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
'Cause...no one knew about it before you just posted,Taz.LOL.Interesting UKMET forecast:

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10. Chicklit
11:31 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Andrea is a very dry storm; peak rainfall rates are only about 0.25 inches per hour, in the storm's southeastern rainbands. These rainbands are not expected to hit the coast in the next two days. Maximum total rainfall observed by the Jacksonville radar has been less than 1.5 inches.
I guess this answers my question about rainfall around Daytona Thursday morning...
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9. StormJunkie
11:30 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Yep, thanks Dr M ☺

Geuss he is not too interested in any center reformation or intensification.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.