Andrea no help for Florida's fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:26 PM GMT on May 09, 2007

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Subtropical Storm Andrea has changed little since it was named at 11am today. The amount of thunderstorm activity has decreased on the storm's west side, but become a little more concentrated on the east side. The organization of the spiral bands of rainfall visible on the Jacksonville, FL long range radar has remained about the same, and winds at some of the offshore buoys have remained fairly constant. Andrea remains a sloppy, disorganized storm. The main threat from the storm is coastal erosion due to the pounding surf it is generating--plus a possible fanning of the fires burning in Florida and Georgia (see below).

Wind shear has increased from 10 knots this morning to about 25 knots this evening. Shear is expected to increase to over 30 knots late tonight. Given the unfavorable wind shear, and the fact that the storm is over waters of 24-25 degrees C, I don't expect any significant intensification of Andrea. A slow decay as forecast by NHC seems reasonable.

Andrea and the Florida/Georgia fires
As Andrea began to form on Tuesday off the Carolina coast, the counter-clockwise circulation of air around the center of low pressure brought northerly winds over northern Florida and southern Georgia, where significant fires are burning. These north winds blew the smoke from the fires into the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, where unhealthy levels of particulate matter air pollution were recorded (Figure 1). The storm moved far enough west and south today that a more westerly flow of air has been carrying the smoke out over the Atlantic. Rainfall from Andrea has been less than 0.3 inches across the fires zones, which is not enough to douse them; in fact, the storm's high winds have served to fan the flames.

Andrea is a very dry storm; peak rainfall rates are only about 0.25 inches per hour, in the storm's southeastern rainbands. These rainbands are not expected to hit the coast in the next two days. Maximum total rainfall observed by the Jacksonville radar has been less than 1.5 inches.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS image of fires burning over Florida on May 8, 2007. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Early storms
The last time a named storm formed so early in the year was on April 18 2003, when Tropical Storm Ana formed near Bermuda. An unnamed subtropical storm also formed on April 21, 1992.

Longest period with a tropical cyclone ends
Andrea's formation brings to a close the longest period on record globally without a tropical cyclone. The last advisory issued on a tropical cyclone this year was at 06 GMT on April 6th, for Tropical Cyclone Cliff in the Southern Hemisphere. Today's 15 GMT advisory on Subtropical Storm Andrea ends the record longest period without a tropical cyclone at 33.4 days, besting the old record of 31.5 days set mid-April to mid-May in 1984. Reliable records of global tropical cyclone numbers go back to the beginning of the satellite era, about 1970.

I'll have an update in the morning. The next Quikscat pass is at about 8pm. The next Hurricane Hunter mission is not until 8am Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Smokey Florida Sunrise (Peacefulbon)
Southwest Florida is being affected by the fires burning on the Georgia/Florida border, some 300 miles away. The smoke plume reduced visability to less than half a mile yesterday, and this morning resulted in this hazy sun at 8 a.m.
Smokey Florida Sunrise
Smoke (BillyBob)
Smoke moving in to Central Florida from the fires in Georgia and Northern Florida created this interesting orange glow. I took this photo, this morning, looking east across Lake Henry near Winter Haven.
Smoke

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109. thelmores
12:31 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
HurricaneFCast, thanks, after looking at the shear map, it became obvious what Dr. Masters so astutely pointed out.



if not for the shear, I believe Andrea could have transitioned, but if you look at the sat above, you can see the direction of the shear, and the effects it is having.

no NW convection, partly due to dry air, partly shear. The circulation is shallow, but is still feeling effects of the shear. the center of circulation is "almost" exposed now..... all the huge convection on the SE side is being blown SE.....

The only chance Andrea has I believe, is to stay stationary, or drift SE...... and at this point, I give up on speed, direction..... and well, intensity seems limited by the shear....

anyway, saw that with my beer goggles on! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
108. C2News
12:30 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
BTW does anyone know of any rss imagery? i am having a hard time finding some
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
107. melwerle
12:24 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
ok - so checking in. Our clouds are getting thick here and the wind is howling outside - i have funny pictures of me and daughter pretending to be willow trees (too many rum and cokes) and the clouds outside. Not much rain - a few drops here and there in Savannah (actually about 40 miles south). No big deal - I always worry about the tornados and such but with such heavy winds, I don't know if there is anything to worry about (from the west originally so I am still learning east coast "weather").

Anyway - what do things look like - i have checked anything that is going on yet - SJ? SW?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
106. C2News
12:28 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
are those two bolding statements contradicting...
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
105. hurricane23
8:25 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
NHC 8pm Special Feature....

SPECIAL FEATURE...

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.5N 79.5W AT 10/0000
UTC OR 110 MILES SE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA. ANDREA HAS BEEN
MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RATHER LARGE SLOPPY CIRCULATION
OF ANDREA HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON THE DECLINE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW QUADRANT
. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM
THE SOUTHEAST SHOWS NARROW BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ONSHORE AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AN IMPROVED WIDER BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS TAKEN SHAPE IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE
. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN WEAK STEERING AND HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
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104. C2News
12:27 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
yeah lol...
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103. WSI
12:26 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Yeah. I know people that live out in the middle of nowhere, LOL!

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102. C2News
12:25 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Oh wow, i honestly (in my class) know one person with it.
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101. WSI
12:24 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
I don't, but you never know. I know plenty of people that still have it. Last year Dr. M told people to lay off the images. Something like under 200k I think. In any case, 6MB is pretty large.
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100. C2News
12:24 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Andrea has gotten sloppier looking on satellite and radar over the course of the day...where is the real coc?
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99. hurricane23
8:20 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
If it were to move into the gulf which i dont see happen it will certainly be choked to death as there is tons of dry and high shear dominateing the gulf right now.Andrea is likely to be gone by this time tommorow if not sooner if thunderstorm activity does not pick up.SST'S are just not warm enough.
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98. C2News
12:23 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
ewww...who has dial up?
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96. WSI
12:21 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
SJ! Link man. Link. That is a 6MB image. Going to maul the dial-up people, LOL!

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95. MZT
12:20 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Alberto soldiered on pretty well under 20-30 knots of shear. Why not this one?
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94. weatherboykris
12:19 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
BBL
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93. weatherboykris
12:18 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Probably,Adrian.If there's no new burst tonight...then it'll be dead by this time tomorrow.
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92. StormJunkie
12:18 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Evening Will, good to see you and thanks ☺

I agree with throwing darts BT :~)

One of the center thingys is right on the GA coast. Radar and the MIMIC seem to support that.







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91. hurricane23
8:15 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
A slow weakening trend seems like a good forcast as continues its slow drift to the SW.
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90. HurricaneFCast
12:14 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
WBK- 20 Knots now.. 30 knots overnight. That's the forecast.
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89. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:11 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
oh, I thought it showed the tendency for the next day..
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88. weatherboykris
12:13 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Thanks HFC...I still don't see 30kt,but ok.
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87. HurricaneFCast
12:10 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
WIND SHEAR

I hope this clarifies Dr. Masters' Forecast
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86. weatherboykris
12:11 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Alright Bama.
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85. Hellsniper223
12:10 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
SK is sounding alot like ST...
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84. Bamatracker
12:10 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
let it go weatherboy....they will come in here all season trying to pick fights. dont let them get to you
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83. weatherboykris
12:10 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Posted By: HadesGodWyvern at 12:08 AM GMT on May 10, 2007.

shear is about 20 knots and excepted to increase 5-10 knots in 24 hours according to the shear tendency map.


That map shows what shear has done in the past 24h.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
82. weatherblog
12:07 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Andrea looking kinda ragged. 45 mph is the highest it will probably go.

Anyways, check out my Poll/Voting game blog; it's awesome.
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81. WSI
12:10 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
"I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt."

I was suggesting nothing to the contrary. Just saying the storm has gone down hill.

The odds are against it right now though. I wish it would sling a decent amount of rain over Florida though.
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79. weatherboykris
12:08 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Posted By: stormkat at 12:07 AM GMT on May 10, 2007.

wel i will leave you children practice on this little rain event for fla...jp please dont try and locate the center it has none...ill be gone guys good luck with your discussion lol...


No center?...Oh...my...All those buoy reports,dropsondes,and radars must have been malfunctioning!
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78. Rlennon
12:07 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Thank you WSI
77. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
12:01 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
shear is about 20 knots and expected to increase 5-10 knots in 24 hours according to the shear tendency map.
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76. C2News
12:04 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Wow! Three blogs in 1 day on this supposed "unorganized mess" seems like it is really important. Just got back from the beach, as we left winds increased to the 20 mph range, i got an official reading on my anemometer while i was there of 15 mph. Heavy rain began to fall. The winds are still going now and the rain has subsided somewhat...
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74. thelmores
12:06 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
"Posted By: weatherboykris
stormkat...shut up and stop being a jerk.We're trying to have a civil conversation here and you're being an arrogant jerk."

Thanks for saying what I was thinking! LOL
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73. MZT
12:06 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
WSI, this storm has looked pretty crappy between 8:00 to 10:00 yesterday and Monday. I'm willing to give it the benefit of the doubt.
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72. WSI
12:05 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Evening folks. SJ, congrats on your forecast. Guess or not, you were right.

Storm not looking too healthy right now. I have not been keeping up with it much through the day, but it is certainly not the storm it was this morning.

Rlennon, SJ has a good site. I also have plenty of links on mine as well. Links in the directory. Other pages of interest too.
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70. HurricaneFCast
12:04 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
69. weatherboykris
12:04 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
stormkat...shut up and stop being a jerk.We're trying to have a civil conversation here and you're being an arrogant jerk.
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68. Bamatracker
12:03 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
stormkat calm down...we dont need none of that in here
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67. cajunkid
7:02 PM CDT on May 09, 2007
all right STORMTOP
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65. Bamatracker
12:02 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
SJ what do you agree with me on...the dart thing?
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64. MZT
12:00 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Shear will not snuff out Andrea tonight. And you can write that in stone! LOL
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63. StormJunkie
12:01 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Good to see you jp ☺
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62. thelmores
11:58 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
can somebody show me where Dr. M got his 30knot shear value from???

With all due respect......
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60. Rlennon
12:00 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
thank you StormJunkie

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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