Andrea no help for Florida's fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:26 PM GMT on May 09, 2007

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Subtropical Storm Andrea has changed little since it was named at 11am today. The amount of thunderstorm activity has decreased on the storm's west side, but become a little more concentrated on the east side. The organization of the spiral bands of rainfall visible on the Jacksonville, FL long range radar has remained about the same, and winds at some of the offshore buoys have remained fairly constant. Andrea remains a sloppy, disorganized storm. The main threat from the storm is coastal erosion due to the pounding surf it is generating--plus a possible fanning of the fires burning in Florida and Georgia (see below).

Wind shear has increased from 10 knots this morning to about 25 knots this evening. Shear is expected to increase to over 30 knots late tonight. Given the unfavorable wind shear, and the fact that the storm is over waters of 24-25 degrees C, I don't expect any significant intensification of Andrea. A slow decay as forecast by NHC seems reasonable.

Andrea and the Florida/Georgia fires
As Andrea began to form on Tuesday off the Carolina coast, the counter-clockwise circulation of air around the center of low pressure brought northerly winds over northern Florida and southern Georgia, where significant fires are burning. These north winds blew the smoke from the fires into the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, where unhealthy levels of particulate matter air pollution were recorded (Figure 1). The storm moved far enough west and south today that a more westerly flow of air has been carrying the smoke out over the Atlantic. Rainfall from Andrea has been less than 0.3 inches across the fires zones, which is not enough to douse them; in fact, the storm's high winds have served to fan the flames.

Andrea is a very dry storm; peak rainfall rates are only about 0.25 inches per hour, in the storm's southeastern rainbands. These rainbands are not expected to hit the coast in the next two days. Maximum total rainfall observed by the Jacksonville radar has been less than 1.5 inches.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS image of fires burning over Florida on May 8, 2007. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Early storms
The last time a named storm formed so early in the year was on April 18 2003, when Tropical Storm Ana formed near Bermuda. An unnamed subtropical storm also formed on April 21, 1992.

Longest period with a tropical cyclone ends
Andrea's formation brings to a close the longest period on record globally without a tropical cyclone. The last advisory issued on a tropical cyclone this year was at 06 GMT on April 6th, for Tropical Cyclone Cliff in the Southern Hemisphere. Today's 15 GMT advisory on Subtropical Storm Andrea ends the record longest period without a tropical cyclone at 33.4 days, besting the old record of 31.5 days set mid-April to mid-May in 1984. Reliable records of global tropical cyclone numbers go back to the beginning of the satellite era, about 1970.

I'll have an update in the morning. The next Quikscat pass is at about 8pm. The next Hurricane Hunter mission is not until 8am Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Smokey Florida Sunrise (Peacefulbon)
Southwest Florida is being affected by the fires burning on the Georgia/Florida border, some 300 miles away. The smoke plume reduced visability to less than half a mile yesterday, and this morning resulted in this hazy sun at 8 a.m.
Smokey Florida Sunrise
Smoke (BillyBob)
Smoke moving in to Central Florida from the fires in Georgia and Northern Florida created this interesting orange glow. I took this photo, this morning, looking east across Lake Henry near Winter Haven.
Smoke

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159. Rlennon
1:19 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Bamatracker are you from Alabama (not trying to be funny)?
158. Rlennon
1:18 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Does anyone have a link that will forcast the bermuda high this summer?
157. Bamatracker
1:18 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Ok this is the second night in a row that this blog died during Idol LOL!!! I knew all of you were lying about not watchin' it.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1367
156. Bamatracker
1:13 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
The pic that comes to mind for me is during Dennis here in mobile county a couple of years ago. The only damage was a small tree that was cut about halfway up that the top fell. You could tell they just cut it to get their house on tv!
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1367
155. MZT
1:13 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Nah. I'll get ice cream. Cold Stone is open till 10:00. Check back later for CAT 4 Andrea.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
154. MZT
1:12 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Bamatracker: Yeah, I remember during Rita, TWC would go live to a reporter in Galveston. LOOK!! A palm frond is on the ground! =:-O
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
153. Bamatracker
1:11 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Hey MZT...IDOL is on!!
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1367
152. hurricane23
9:11 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
Tune in to IPR and listen to the TROPICAL ROUND TABLE @ 9PM.

CLICK HERE and select your player on the left.
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151. weatherguy03
9:11 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
No, that was my amount!..LOL
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150. Bamatracker
1:09 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
im waiting for the pics of down tree limbs to start coming in....its funny though because alot of times i've noticed in these weak storms the limbs have clean cuts like somebody chopped it down and took the picture.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1367
149. hurricane23
9:10 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
Here is a better view of Kris which had no chance due to increaseing shear.

NAKED SWIRL...

FFF
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148. weatherguy03
9:10 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
Dont get me wrong, I want this thing to get going. I am sad:( I want rain. Tomorrow may be our chance. Please.
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146. MZT
1:08 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Think I'll find something else to do for an hour, check it again after 10:00.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
144. weatherguy03
9:07 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
St. Simons. 0.10" Woohoo!!..LOL Ya just got to watch TWC. They are searching for something to say!!
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143. Rlennon
1:00 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
There is an increase in active in the SE quadrant, but I don't think there is enough moisture to let intensification happen.
142. StormJunkie
1:06 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Nice try thel :~)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
141. StormJunkie
1:03 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Anywho, I think you must have misundertood the data again '03. Unrelated....


Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
140. thelmores
1:06 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Here is Andrea in 2 hours! LOL






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139. stormwatcher247
1:02 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
You gotta be kidding, this thing is nothing!
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137. weatherguy03
9:01 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
Thanks 23!! Will check it out.
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136. weatherguy03
9:01 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
Who uses filters? Only the geeks!..LOL
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135. MZT
12:59 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Yeah, it could just be a distortion in the calibration for the infrared color sequence. That's why I want to see a few more images roll in.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
134. weatherguy03
8:59 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
Nah, you got it right..LOL Good job SJ.

Was down near the beach alittle while ago. Man, this is a joke. So far a few light showers. Seas have actually come down a bit from yesterday. The beach took a pounding unfortunately, but we are prone to that here.
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133. hurricane23
8:56 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
Tune in to IPR and listen to the TROPICAL ROUND TABLE @ 9PM.

CLICK HERE and select your player on the left.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
132. WSI
1:00 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
SJ who are you talking to?

Ooops.. guess I have to turn the filters off to see. :)
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131. melwerle
12:54 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
hey c2 - nothing much here. Just wind and a few "sprits" here and there. Funny - i haven't looked to see where this is right now but i feel like it should be doing more than this. Although not complaining AT ALL - we have a fab breeze and COOL weather for a change. If it could be like this all the time, our real estate would go up like it was in San diego before we sold...
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
130. StormJunkie
12:56 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Spam posts may contain anything from a single link, to dozens of links. Text content is minimal, usually innocuous and unrelated to the forum's topic.

Another type that is recently hitting forums is full banner ads and blatant posting of an ad that is unrelated to the thread's topic. This takes away from the thread creator's topic of discussion, is rude and interrupts any fluid discussion started. This also eats up bandwidth, the time for someone to delete the SPAM and space wasted on the server. Especially when the person is going from thread to thread posting the same thing over and over with no regards to the topic or rules of those forums posted to.


From wikipedia

Or am I just misunderstanding? Are you calling someone a meat like substance?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
128. weatherguy03
8:54 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
LOL...BT. Never you!! You entertain us!

Beginning to intensify? Huh?
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127. Bamatracker
12:54 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
crap...am i a spammer now?!!!
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1367
126. MZT
12:51 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Comparing the 8:05 and 8:51 images here on WU, I think the storm is holding it's ground and possibly beginning to intensify again. But I'll wait for a few more images to arrive before making that call. (It was obvious by 11:30 yesterday.)
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
125. StormJunkie
12:50 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Yep, good evening to you too '03 ☺
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
124. hurricane23
8:51 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
T-numbers confirm andrea is slowly weakening.

SEE HERE
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122. Fl30258713
12:46 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
It's still too soon to talk about Chris,lol.


The COC shows up pretty good on this:

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=uw4&domain=bah&size=large&period=720&incr=60&r r=900&banner=uhmet&satplat=goes12&overlay=off


I like these satellite shots. I can't remember who posted that link yesterday but you know who you are. Thanks!
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121. MZT
12:44 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
It takes a lot of beating before the NHC downgrades a storm. The NHC kept a name on Zeta and Chris long after they became pitiful shells of their former selves. One quadrant of continuing convection is sufficient.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
120. C2News
12:45 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
ok srry i stuck around i am actually leaving now but shear if anything is supposed to increase
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
119. Fl30258713
12:38 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Maybe with all the HP around this thing the shear will increase the outflow while HP holds her together. After the shear decreases I think the convection on the east side will wrap around and even out.
I don't see Andrea moving very much.

Is HP in the GOM supposed to increase?
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118. TheCaneWhisperer
8:38 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
Posted By: C2News at 8:29 PM EDT on May 09, 2007.
are those two bolding statements contradicting...


I don't think so! They are explaining what happened to Andrea most of the day! I would think they start writing these reports at least an hour early! They must have wanted to note this occurance!
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117. chessrascal
12:30 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Posted By: C2News at 12:29 AM GMT on May 10, 2007.
are those two bolding statements contradicting...


I dont think so its its just saying that she was decreasing in convection and now shes getting her act back together after the circulation center change.
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116. C2News
12:34 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
well i'm gonna go now...i will get back on later
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
115. WSI
12:34 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
No prob SJ. Didn't want your comment to get canned. ;) It is a good image though. I like those images.
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114. TheCaneWhisperer
8:23 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
5 Times as much moisture and MUCH warmer sst's!
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113. hurricane23
8:30 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
Overall what there saying is Andrea remains rather disorganizd and futher strengthing does not seem likely at this time.Maybe things will change overnight but as of now the drift continues as another system kicks here out to sea in a few days.
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112. StormJunkie
12:29 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Sorry y'all. MIMIC linked.

My bad WSI, completely forgot about the size thing. usually don't post image, but that one tells a good story.

You can also find the CIMSS site which produces the MIMIC imagery from here.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
111. C2News
12:31 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
hey melwerle i am down here in jacksonville, florida it is windy and rainy here
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
110. WSI
12:31 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
BTW does anyone know of any rss imagery?

Only think I know of is the NHC RSS products. Like I have here.

Its not even imagery really. Just a link to it.
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109. thelmores
12:31 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
HurricaneFCast, thanks, after looking at the shear map, it became obvious what Dr. Masters so astutely pointed out.



if not for the shear, I believe Andrea could have transitioned, but if you look at the sat above, you can see the direction of the shear, and the effects it is having.

no NW convection, partly due to dry air, partly shear. The circulation is shallow, but is still feeling effects of the shear. the center of circulation is "almost" exposed now..... all the huge convection on the SE side is being blown SE.....

The only chance Andrea has I believe, is to stay stationary, or drift SE...... and at this point, I give up on speed, direction..... and well, intensity seems limited by the shear....

anyway, saw that with my beer goggles on! LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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