Andrea no help for Florida's fires

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:26 PM GMT on May 09, 2007

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Subtropical Storm Andrea has changed little since it was named at 11am today. The amount of thunderstorm activity has decreased on the storm's west side, but become a little more concentrated on the east side. The organization of the spiral bands of rainfall visible on the Jacksonville, FL long range radar has remained about the same, and winds at some of the offshore buoys have remained fairly constant. Andrea remains a sloppy, disorganized storm. The main threat from the storm is coastal erosion due to the pounding surf it is generating--plus a possible fanning of the fires burning in Florida and Georgia (see below).

Wind shear has increased from 10 knots this morning to about 25 knots this evening. Shear is expected to increase to over 30 knots late tonight. Given the unfavorable wind shear, and the fact that the storm is over waters of 24-25 degrees C, I don't expect any significant intensification of Andrea. A slow decay as forecast by NHC seems reasonable.

Andrea and the Florida/Georgia fires
As Andrea began to form on Tuesday off the Carolina coast, the counter-clockwise circulation of air around the center of low pressure brought northerly winds over northern Florida and southern Georgia, where significant fires are burning. These north winds blew the smoke from the fires into the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, where unhealthy levels of particulate matter air pollution were recorded (Figure 1). The storm moved far enough west and south today that a more westerly flow of air has been carrying the smoke out over the Atlantic. Rainfall from Andrea has been less than 0.3 inches across the fires zones, which is not enough to douse them; in fact, the storm's high winds have served to fan the flames.

Andrea is a very dry storm; peak rainfall rates are only about 0.25 inches per hour, in the storm's southeastern rainbands. These rainbands are not expected to hit the coast in the next two days. Maximum total rainfall observed by the Jacksonville radar has been less than 1.5 inches.


Figure 1. NASA MODIS image of fires burning over Florida on May 8, 2007. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Early storms
The last time a named storm formed so early in the year was on April 18 2003, when Tropical Storm Ana formed near Bermuda. An unnamed subtropical storm also formed on April 21, 1992.

Longest period with a tropical cyclone ends
Andrea's formation brings to a close the longest period on record globally without a tropical cyclone. The last advisory issued on a tropical cyclone this year was at 06 GMT on April 6th, for Tropical Cyclone Cliff in the Southern Hemisphere. Today's 15 GMT advisory on Subtropical Storm Andrea ends the record longest period without a tropical cyclone at 33.4 days, besting the old record of 31.5 days set mid-April to mid-May in 1984. Reliable records of global tropical cyclone numbers go back to the beginning of the satellite era, about 1970.

I'll have an update in the morning. The next Quikscat pass is at about 8pm. The next Hurricane Hunter mission is not until 8am Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Smokey Florida Sunrise (Peacefulbon)
Southwest Florida is being affected by the fires burning on the Georgia/Florida border, some 300 miles away. The smoke plume reduced visability to less than half a mile yesterday, and this morning resulted in this hazy sun at 8 a.m.
Smokey Florida Sunrise
Smoke (BillyBob)
Smoke moving in to Central Florida from the fires in Georgia and Northern Florida created this interesting orange glow. I took this photo, this morning, looking east across Lake Henry near Winter Haven.
Smoke

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259. StoryOfTheCane
3:08 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
look at this monster lol

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258. Rlennon
3:06 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
MZT, I agree the Gulf Stream makes the upwelling a questionable factor.
257. MZT
3:04 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Ordinarily a stationary storm weakens as it churns up the water and there is less heat to work with.

This is a minimal subtropical storm so I don't think that's quite so true in this case. Plus it's sitting over the Gulf Stream which is a pretty strong current of water that brings heat under the storm.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
256. weatherboykris
3:05 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
It will weaken the storm,LAboy444.It is upwelling cooler waters,preventing intensification.
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255. thelmores
2:58 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Pottery, hope you get the rain you deserve!

"The dry air will cause problems for a while, and the SW corner of Andrea may not close up before she reaches land."

MZT, I'm not convinced that Andrea will "ever" hit land! While heading west, she stopped! Now just meanders and wabbles....... virtually stationary!

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254. louisianaboy444
2:53 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Andrea is shown as stationary does this affect how this storms future will play out?
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253. kmanislander
3:00 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Pottery

We need Andrea to dissipate so that we can finally get some rain here. She is bringing hot dry air this way with W winds. The NW Caribbean is bone dry
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252. stormybil
2:58 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
this was forcast to weaken from day one it poped up .
but it is a stromin may and anything can happen with this . its stalled again and might not go anywhere . right now . it just might be a big rainmaker when its done .
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251. Patrap
9:58 PM CDT on May 09, 2007
3
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250. pottery
10:52 PM AST on May 09, 2007
Hi Kman. Excuse the duplication. This machine is playing the ass.
Yeah, Andrea is confounding everyone. Thats weather for you. Lovely !
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249. MZT
2:49 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
The dry air will cause problems for a while, and the SW corner of Andrea may not close up before she reaches land.

But there is moisture infiltration reaching northern AL and GA. It's not as bad a situation as a few days ago.

The shear is complicating factor too. But I still think Andrea will shrug through it.

Mind you, I'm only thinking in terms of Andrea remaining a marginal TS through the morning advisories.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
248. pottery
10:47 PM AST on May 09, 2007
Bah ! Humbug !
The cicadas have stopped their shreiking, and still no sign of a cloud.

Good evening everyone.
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247. kmanislander
2:51 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Hi Pottery

Man this Andrea has everyone hopping today.
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246. pottery
10:47 PM AST on May 09, 2007
Bah ! Humbug !
The cicadas have stopped their shreiking, and still no sign of a cloud.

Good evening everyone.
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245. scCane
2:43 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Allison

Look similar?(first pic,pretty funny how similar this storm is to allison if she wasnt retired this storm would be called allison they seem to be very similar (slow movers,lastinglong,similar looks) only thing stoping this one from being an alison in sheep clothing is the lack of moisture perhaps that can change with the burst on the se side. Most likely if the shear would stop it would gain back its west side.
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244. kmanislander
2:49 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
The WV image says it all. Dry air everywhere around Andrea. Where is the convection to come from tonight ?

Link
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243. MTJax
10:44 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
DOC, i think the fires are making more dry air. I dont see it all going away, but in each frame it looks a little better as the brown goes away. The proof is in the rain probibility changes. I think the dry air has been all over the SE for about 3 weeks now with a few exceptions. As the old timers around here say... "drought breeds drought"
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242. Tazmanian
7:45 PM PDT on May 09, 2007
weatherboykris come to my blog
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241. Rlennon
2:46 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
There is still a lot of dry air trying to get inside Andrea.
And no real mositure feed.
240. kmanislander
2:45 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Andrea is on the way to being a low swirl.

It will soon be back to blob watching
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239. MZT
2:43 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
"Burst" isn't a word I would use. But there has been some marginal growth in moisture coverage the last hour.
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238. DocBen
2:42 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
MTJax - I don't know. Looks like a lot of dry air over GA, FL, and eastern half of AL. I don't know that I see it all being removed.
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237. stormybil
2:42 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
wait till after midnight shes putting on her dress and will start dancing again .
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236. weatherboykris
2:40 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Andrea is essentially dead if we don't get a new burst of convection soon.
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235. kmanislander
2:37 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Trough

An elogated region of relatively low pressure, usually associated with a front ( wikipedia )

Fancy way of referring to an area of low pressure at the surface originating from a frontal system.
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234. HurricaneKing
10:36 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
It looks to me like lower shear will move back in.
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233. MZT
2:25 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
I'm making a call. The diurnal minimum has passed and Andrea is improving again. I'm not sure if it will look much better tomorrow morning than this morning, but I expect it will look at least pretty similar, and the storm will still be named.
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232. MTJax
10:33 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
DRY AIR PUMP IN ACTION

I have noticed something important about this storm that will affect the fires.

Before this storm showed up, we had a very persistent and very dry air mass over the SE. As this storm has been sitting, the dry air is being pumped out of the SE and sent into the Atlantic.

At first this may seem insignificant, but when you couple that with the approaching front from the West you will see the chances for RAIN increasing all over the SE. In JAX we have had a maximum of about 25% chance of rain one or two days a week. The 7 day outlook is now showing a 30%+ chance of rain every day and most nights.

Even though we dont get a soaking from Andrea, she is setting the stage so the SE can have rain again and put out the fires.
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231. kmanislander
2:32 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
With a shear map like this no chance

Link
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230. Rlennon
2:30 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Ok stupid question time. What is a sfc trough?
229. Tazmanian
7:30 PM PDT on May 09, 2007
kmanislander see my post
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228. kmanislander
2:26 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
What exactly are you keeping an eye on Taz ?
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226. kmanislander
2:22 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
exactly what I said earlier today but no one paid attention to that. I guess they would rather speculate on where the center is lol
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225. Rlennon
2:22 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Wow that is aweful. I hope they work it out soon.
224. Tazmanian
7:16 PM PDT on May 09, 2007
i been keeping a eye on
this for a few days now and yes you dont need to tell me wind shear is high be come i no that her is what the nhc has to say about it

lol


is generating a swath of scattered
showers and isolated tstms between 65w-71w. A few ship
observations in the region indicate that there could be a sfc
trough in this area of weather. This may be added/brought back
to the 00 z sfc analysis if the data continues to support it.
Farther E...the upper pattern folds into a very broad trough.
Embedded in this trough is a weak 1016 mb low located near
34n39w with a sfc trough stretching SW to near 26n52w. The last
few vis shots before darkness indicate that there could be
another weak low on the trough axis near 28n. Regardless...this
system is weak
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223. Rlennon
2:20 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Isn't that north and east of where she was earlier today?

Reformed eye? Is it reforming again? Seems like there is one trying to form into that eastern convection.




It is possible and something that happens often in weak storms.
222. MZT
2:20 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
If simply entering Florida extinguishes Andrea, then it truly was a weak storm. Even depressions usually cross Florida with no problems.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
221. kmanislander
2:19 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Pretty good
Hot as Hades down here and dry as a bone. Would you believe that the land side part of the Hyatt is STILL not open !!
The owner has been locked in an insurance dispute since Ivan in 2004
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220. melwerle
2:18 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
ok - so heavy gusts here...is this moving or stickin in the south? If staying, I better brew some tea...
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
219. DocBen
2:19 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
30.5 N...79.5 W.

Isn't that north and east of where she was earlier today?

Reformed eye? Is it reforming again? Seems like there is one trying to form into that eastern convection.
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218. Rlennon
2:19 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Between work and school and holidays, I have had no time for fun.
217. Rlennon
2:19 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Hi friend how are you?
216. kmanislander
2:18 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
hi RLennon

long time no see
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215. C2News
2:16 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Either Andrea wil sink or swim...either strengther or weaken


chances:

strengthen- 40%
weaken- 60%

I am probably too hopeful for rain
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 73 Comments: 622
214. HurricaneRoman
2:09 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
aww poor andrea shes exposed xP.... mayb her center will relocate under the new burst of convection?
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213. turtlehurricane
2:09 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Andrea may re-organize a bit tonight during the diurnal minimum, and a center relocation is possible when that happens. Overall, Andrea continues to be very weak. I made an update as of 10 PM on:

Hurricane Warning
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212. groundman
2:03 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
Hey all, good to see the humor hasn't changed much from last year. I was rooting for Andrea to be named just because it was supposedly such an anomaly but I guess it wasn't exactly so odd.

Anyway loved the comments about crow being served with a sauce of foot in mouth and sightings of the "eye", tongue in cheek earlier.

Still here in Biloxi area, gorgeous weather.

Oh yeah, I enjoy the scientific stuff too, won't say I just read the blog for the humor. LOL, by accident I do occasionally learn something.
groundman
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211. aquak9
10:07 PM EDT on May 09, 2007
Feel free to delete this post if necessary, for I wish to cause no harm or bad feelings.

My blog covers the smoke and fire situation in Florida and Georgia. Many folks have helped with updates on the smoke and fire situation throughout the area, especially Rainman32. Feel free to take a peek for the latest updates, and add any that you might feel would be of help. Thank you, and once again, I bid peace to all.
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210. SatBeachFL
1:59 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
I live in Satellite Beach on the east coast of Florida, this morning the smoke was so dense I thought it was overcast. From the latest IR shots, it looks like Andrea is getting sheared apart, and the chance for rain is looking dim.
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209. scCane
1:59 AM GMT on May 10, 2007
For a storm that is getting sheared heavily it looks like its holding together the same amount of shear ripped albertos center from the convection. the question is how long will the shear last most likely the second it stops it will start regaining power.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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