Update on remains of TD 10

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:40 PM GMT on August 22, 2005

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I've been reluctant to pay much heed to the remains of TD 10 after declaring the system dead forever and seeing it struggle to maintain its identity as a tropical wave the past few days. However, recent visible satellite images (as of 3pm EDT) indicate the remains of TD 10 may have developed a surface circulation centered just north of Haiti. The cloud pattern continues to look disorganized, but could show some development as the system approaches Florida by Wednesday. The latest "early" track guidance for this system shows it roughly paralleling the coast of Cuba, so development of this system may be substantially hindered by interaction with land. Some of the computer models indicate development of this system into a tropical storm when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico later this week, when the large upper level high anchored over Mississippi that has been creating high shear over the Gulf finally moves off to the west. I'm not a believer, I think the environment for the remains of TD 10 will still be too hostile to permit a tropical storm from developing.



Jeff Masters

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148. StormJunkie
2:45 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
Look at the convection covering the whole SE. Lots of lightening tonight.
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147. caneforecaster
2:43 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
weatherguy, the tropical weather outlook this afternoon said it was starting to form a LLC down by the southern Bahamas. It's hard to see now without visible so I'm not sure if that has continued or not.
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146. StormJunkie
2:39 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
Anyone know yet wether they will use TD10 or 12? Or are they not saying yet?
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145. weatherguy03
2:34 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
The circulation that everyone is looking at on former TD10 is an upper level low that is north of the so called "center." This wave does not have any circulation, yet. That upper low is probably precluding any development of this system right now.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
144. Txcanewatcher
2:37 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
I don't know what it may do, but I am hoping it takes a more southerly course into the Gulf of Mexico.
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143. StormJunkie
2:34 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
Not to many seem to want to talk about what 10 will do.
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142. hurricane79
2:33 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
Earlier today, the low level rotation was a bit more elongated than it is now. Earlier is was stretched NW to SE from Haiti to the SE Bahamas. As of now, it appears a bit better defined.
141. lefty420
2:28 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
if it is at that location its movement appears tobe n for sometime now, what do u think
140. lefty420
2:27 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
loloh so it is
139. caneforecaster
2:25 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
just fyi lefty, the SHIPS model up there is in MPH.
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138. hurricane79
2:22 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
LLC of TD 10 is at 22N 72W. This is where the small area of convection was earlier today, and is reforming as of now, there is a consistent rotation of the other convection aroung this point, as well as locating this LLC while the visible satellite was available earlier
137. lefty420
2:22 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
ships models say 72kts in 72 hrs so i am going to say 72 kts in 72 hrs lol
136. southbeachdude
2:13 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
So cane....and anyone else....any idea about how strong the remains of TD10 could get? I wish this thing would go ahead and just fizzle out. Looks like it is going to ruin the end of the week....
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135. lefty420
2:20 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
cool, yeah mine is still on to. try it again and its a big loop so you need a good connection and u probly need to accepting cookines and all kinds of crap. works for me i just clicked it.

yeah i am in to madden right now or i would have gotten on halo. i have been playing halo for months now so i enjoy a new game for a min
134. StormJunkie
2:19 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
earlier link did not work Lefty.
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133. StormJunkie
2:16 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
Yea, I did not play though, I ended up watching Sin City. Pretty good flick. Think the Xbox is still on.
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132. lefty420
2:15 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
.lol thats what i thought was just messing wit u boy did i accept ur freidns request, and were u on halo today stormjunkie
131. StormJunkie
2:11 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
Sorry guys I meant SAT- ie GEOS imagery.
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130. lefty420
2:10 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
yeah radar where lol , no radar out there
129. caneforecaster
2:09 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
link to radar?
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128. StormJunkie
2:06 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
What do you think of 22n when you look at the radar Canecaster?
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127. lefty420
2:05 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
yeah thats what i have been looking at. this is a link to a 1km ir loop of old td 10. set speed to fast for better viewing, now it does need somemore convection over the circulation so development might be slow

Link
126. caneforecaster
2:03 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
I doubt it....it's the UPPER LEVEL LOW. While a low level center could form in that area, it hasn't yet from what I can see.

**Also notice where models are initializing the center, it's just where you could see signs of a LLC this afternoon on visible imagery.
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125. StormJunkie
1:58 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
That is a very intresting spin N of where everyone was looking for TD10 to reform. That Accuweather forcast for a more northly center may be right on.
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124. willdd1979
1:43 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
hey Dr. Masters and everyone else read this post taken from accuweather.com and tell me what you think of it and how likely you think this prediction is.

Since the area is in a favorable environment for development, over very warm water, and most computer models are indicating that development is going to occur in this area, a close watch of this area is required. This is a complex situation that will be a challenge to forecast accurately. We can say with certainty at this point that this wave is going to bring an increase in moisture to southern and central Florida starting as early as Wednesday night, and widespread thunderstorm activity will occur in those areas Thursday and Friday, with excessive rainfall a threat. What is less certain right now is exactly where a tropical cyclone will form, if at all, and where it will go once it does form.

There are a number of variables in this situation; the first of which is exactly where a cyclone will form. There appears to be two areas vying for supremacy at the moment, and the winner of that battle will have a significant influence on where a prospective storm will end up. Should the southern area become dominant, then it will most likely cross south Florida, emerge in the Gulf of Mexico, and then head toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Should the northern area become dominant and a storm form there, then central Florida could end up being under the gun eventually, as well as points further north.

The second variable is the strength of upper-level high pressure to the north and northeast of the tropical wave. Computer models indicate that the ridge will retreat toward Texas over the next few days before weakening. Should this ridge of high pressure weaken faster or retreat faster, a developing storm could turn to the right sooner and end up further north. On the other hand, a stronger ridge that moves more slowly would keep the storm further south.

The final variable with this storm is that another tropical wave located along 67 west south of 21 north is approaching quickly. The potential is there for the wave to disrupt development in this area. ON the other hand, if low pressure forms quickly and strengthens in this area over the next couple of days, it could draw the energy associated with the trailing wave into its circulation and help it to strengthen.

The bottom line with this situation is that all with interests along the Gulf Coast and southeast coast, as well as the Bahamas, should monitor this situation carefully, particularly residents of the Florida peninsula. Aside from the potential for heavy rainfall for the middle and end of the week in thunderstorms, a tropical depression or storm could quickly form and strike the area and bring strong winds and a coastal storm surge.

In addition to the full plate that we have with other areas of the tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave and associated surface low pressure located near 16 North, 35 west is showing signs of intensifying and a tropical depression may be forming here as well. This area is moving toward the west-northwest at about 12 knots. This area will be no threat to land in the immediate future, but it could end up threatening Bermuda or the east coast of the United States later next week.
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123. Jedkins
1:45 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
Do not be so sure just because the bamm does doesn't mean anything,the gfdl which is far more reliable takes it into south florida.
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122. caneforecaster
1:42 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
LSU- this site. It's at the top of this blog, lol.
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121. LSUHurricaneHunter
1:39 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
mybahamas, where site are you looking at for the newest bamm?
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120. Txcanewatcher
1:35 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
Hello all, just found this site today. Interested in seeing if xxTD10, if it reforms, will be following a southern track into the Gulf, rather than Florida.
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119. caneforecaster
1:34 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
haha, I was confused for a really long time on that one. I was trying to find out what you could have meant...got it now. ; )
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118. mybahamas
9:33 PM EDT on August 22, 2005
Sorry ... the GFDL takes it to Nassau
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117. mybahamas
9:27 PM EDT on August 22, 2005
Wow ... BAMM takes the TD-10 clone right to New Providence :( I wonder if any of the other models will do the same. Looks like Accuweather might be right this time :(
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116. caneforecaster
1:31 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
new BAMM is up there. Looks about the same. New SHIPS too, a tad weaker but still in line with the earlier intensity forecast...
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115. lefty420
1:26 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
no and she won't stall the high to her north will keep her moving, gfdl i looked at stops moving after she dissipates, let me check the new one, also i recent vis and ir loops looks like she has started to make landfall so even if she does stall for some reason she will die off after a while
114. wxfan
1:25 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
There's definitely some evidence to support the theories of development east and south of Florida of the remnants of TD 10 over the next day or two. GFDL run looks scary to me.... my beloved Florida has taken a beating - beach erosion in Destin is sickening.
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113. FLPanhandle
1:19 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
Is there anything that could stop the western movement of Jose? The GFDL shows Jose stalling off the coast of Mexico.
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112. caneforecaster
1:18 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
yeah, no. I don't have a link either. I always see it on maps of compiled models (such as the wunderground one up there).
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111. caneforecaster
1:17 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
hmm, maybe it didn't follow the old TD 10 well. The new one for Jose is out
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110. lefty420
1:16 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
some times it takes longer or shirter to do the runs it varies because of alot of factors. happenzs with all models. do you have a link to the bamm i don't have a link for that model
109. caneforecaster
1:16 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
where's the new BAMM? It usually comes out half an hour ago...
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108. lefty420
1:11 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
shows you how hot that gulf is, that storm looks good it probly is about 60-65 mph and given more time it could have reached hurricane styrength in no time
107. lefty420
1:10 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
wow hell yeah man, i love loops like that. cdo looks like a soup bubbling up :-)
106. LSUHurricaneHunter
1:09 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
check out this loop of jose, absolutely beautiful.

Link
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105. lefty420
1:04 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
in old td-10 i see a circulation starting to ghet well defined and its well north of where i thought one would develop. north of hispanola. i thinck she will develop in to a cyclone in 24-36 hrs and that the east coast of florida or south florida would be the landfall, also think depending on strength there is a chance she could reneter the gulf and intensify some more. all theory but has some model support. its getting hot up in here
104. lefty420
12:52 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
wassup everybody, i am back. turned madden off, got tired of whipping up on people :-) yesh the system old 1d-10 is looking better and i have a feeling we will see some form of a cyclone form. also watching my old east atlantic wave. she needs to get some more convection going specially with such a low pressure and well defined circulation
103. caneforecaster
12:44 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
convection really starting to flare up now...seeing some reds developing on the NOAA imagery.
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102. jaxwhiz
12:42 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
We are due for a storm here in Jacksonville. I remember Dora, same year when the Beatles blew into Jax.
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101. turtlehurricane
12:43 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
check out my blog, has a satellite analysis and track predictions
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100. turtlehurricane
12:36 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
wow, the pocket of warm water is expanding like crazy! 90s in the lower bahamas already. its gonna be a little startling to watch TD 10 cross these waters!
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98. rxse7en
12:24 AM GMT on August 23, 2005
http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/jacksonville.htm

Been 40 years since the last hurricane came within 30 miles. We're due I tells ya! Duuuuuuuuue! :D
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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