Update on remains of TD 10

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:40 PM GMT on August 22, 2005

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I've been reluctant to pay much heed to the remains of TD 10 after declaring the system dead forever and seeing it struggle to maintain its identity as a tropical wave the past few days. However, recent visible satellite images (as of 3pm EDT) indicate the remains of TD 10 may have developed a surface circulation centered just north of Haiti. The cloud pattern continues to look disorganized, but could show some development as the system approaches Florida by Wednesday. The latest "early" track guidance for this system shows it roughly paralleling the coast of Cuba, so development of this system may be substantially hindered by interaction with land. Some of the computer models indicate development of this system into a tropical storm when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico later this week, when the large upper level high anchored over Mississippi that has been creating high shear over the Gulf finally moves off to the west. I'm not a believer, I think the environment for the remains of TD 10 will still be too hostile to permit a tropical storm from developing.



Jeff Masters

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598. GeorgiaStormz
11:23 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
lol
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9450
597. HurricaneDean07
10:23 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane, and PERFECT STORM, Retired, as well as Dennis, Stan, Wilma and Rita, and 2005 will go down as the most active season on record....

That's what I predict ;)
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
596. HurricaneDean07
10:22 PM GMT on August 16, 2012
Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane, and PERFECT STORM, Retired, as well as Dennis, Stan, Wilma and Rita, and 2005 will go down as the most active season on record....
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
595. lefty420
4:10 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
storm we are all in the new thread. but i feel ya now get out of thie thread and go to the new one
594. STORMTOP
4:01 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
all pressures in cuba are lower then 29.90 inches...the winds are not strong 18mph tops...the convection is still strong in some spots and moderate in others..well the new fix i see according to radar at camaguey is now 20.8 n nad 76.0w ..it looks like a little south of due west lefty...i dont like that it will destroy the center...its being influenced by the trough south of cuba..it loks like its trying to grasp that trough..this could end up in the caribbean with a new center...i see at least 3 centers that could take the lead...
593. lefty420
3:55 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
recon islaready in route and shuold be there in the next 2 -3 hrs
592. hurricane79
3:55 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Jeff Masters has a new posting...see you all there later...
591. lefty420
3:54 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
con is already in route
590. lefty420
3:53 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
damn that sucks 79 see u than man have fun at work
589. newinfl
3:53 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
just heard on twc that recon is due to fly out of keesler around 5:00 this evening for td10.
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
588. hurricane79
3:51 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Looking at the zoomed visible satellite, it appears that thw low is elongated from SW to NE, but it appears the dominate area may be where the convection is forming near 22.4N, 75W. Gots to go to work, I'll be back on the Blog at 10:30 PM ET.
587. whitewabit (Mod)
3:49 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
the 24 hr surface pressure map shows 10 just n of cuba and south of fl

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW.gif
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 357 Comments: 30100
586. lefty420
3:48 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
lets move this to the new thread u guys
585. hurricane79
3:47 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
The TPC models are starting to pick up that weakness in the ridge. Some of theme build the ridge back in after 72 hours, others keep it weak.
584. STORMTOP
3:47 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
lol king i just wanted katrina to be the first cat 5 of the season...i predicted that katrina would be the cat 5..the gulf will give it explosive development just like it did jose...llok how fast jose developed close to land..imagine if jose would of taken a north path you would of have jose being a cat 5....the temps are sizzling in the gulf....
583. hurricane79
3:46 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
New convection is now developing nearer to my proposed llc, just North of 22N between 74 and 76W Link
Click on 99Invest
Click satellite image a couple of times to enlarge
582. Rlenz05
3:46 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
sorry, comp problems
581. Rlenz05
3:45 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
79, the new TPC guidance you posted... some of the models suggest Td 10 might be a cat 1 hurricane in 72 hrs?

not one of the models has the storm located south of 25.3 in 72 hrs.
580. Rlenz05
3:45 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
79, the new TPC guidance you posted... some of the models suggest Td 10 might be a cat 1 hurricane in 72 hrs?

not one of the models has the storm located south of 25.3
579. lefty420
3:44 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
exactly, also nhc bases movement on a 3-6 hr period. it can wobale north or south but its that average motion. right now she is moving west, she could start moving north in 5 mins, i don't know. this is all caused by the weak sterring currents based on the slow movement of the system. when systems move slow they tend to move erraticly in genral. we know she will be moving to the west but how much of a northen component is the x factor


also i think 79 knows i respect his opinion and views as i know he respects mine. as he stated we will not move forward on this if we don't have disagreements cause we might see subtle things slightly diff. thanks everyone as this disscussion is awsome. everyone is contributing and links are flying all over the place and its respectfull dissagreement
578. Rlenz05
3:44 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
79, the new TPC guidance you posted... some of the models suggest Td 10 might be a cat 1 hurricane in 72 hrs?
577. STORMTOP
3:43 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
hey guys lefty is dead on the thing is moving towards the west and its over cuba thats whats keeping it from developing rapidly...i disagree with 79 it will be in the gulf before 72 hours....
576. weatherguy03
3:43 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
New post by Jeff has coordinates at 22.5N 76W.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 589 Comments: 29691
575. HurricaneKing
3:41 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
what do you have against Lee,which is my nickname. What Lenny.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2449
574. hurricane79
3:40 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
STORMTOP, please send us the radar link.. Thanks
573. lefty420
3:39 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
actually cuba is a litlemore north than wnw and thats neither here nor there cause with its location if she heads wnw she will be moving onto land. if u get a long loop of the system u will see she has been moving slowly w for sometime now. thats why i said shortterm. i am just stating what i see thats all
572. hurricane79
3:38 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
True Lefty, I would really like to see recon data.
571. weatherboyfsu
3:37 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
The recon will tell the story.....just have to wait..
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
570. STORMTOP
3:37 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
lefty the nhc has it moving on a path between wnw and nw and thats nots what its doing...it is moving due west right now...where do they get this crap from...no way this thing is moving like that....you can see radar it tells the story...lefty they havent upgraded your wave which is a sigh of relief...i still have a small shot if this crazy woman would move more towards the wnw...i think the upper level low thats s of haiti they think it might turn it more wnw or nw towards s fla then the gulf towards the la coast..this could be la worse nightmare they have been talking about for 40 years now....a storm a cat 5 coming in from the se moving nw...only time will tell ...lefty anything you found in your info that leads you to believe we will have watches go up sometime early in the morning for s fla...
569. lefty420
3:36 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
thanks 79 and i have no way said no one is wrong or does not have all the info. i said all i can due is state my info and if you notice my cordinates for the center is just slightly south of his meaning we read the data slightly diff and i know he can respect that and i never said the longterm track is anything. but right now the system is moving slowly w or wnw, this brings it really close to onsuhore no matter who's center u belive.

also i said i wanted to wait for the microwave data as it is really helpful in one thing, center location, so we should know alot in a few hours with a few sat passes and recon flight en route. understand that i am not going to agree with someone when i see something diff and in no way ever attacked him, all i did was post the links i have and show what i am seeing. remeebr we are all learning and the day u stop learning u are dieing and how do we learn thru our mistakes so if i am proven wrong so be it. life goes on
568. weatherboyfsu
3:36 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Its staying just offshore so far....and it looks as if it will stay offshore....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
567. hurricane79
3:36 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
NEW TPC Guidance is out on 10L:
Link
566. Rlenz05
3:34 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Cuba does not lay NW, more like WNW
565. weatherguy03
3:34 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Anyway. High pressure is moving west from Florida. A weak trough will move down over the E.US by Wed-Fri. This would tend to nudge this system to the NW. But as stated by Stormy and Lefty, if it moves into Cuba all bets are off. It also may be too far south to be pulled NW. And may stay on a west heading being steered by High pressure to its north.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 589 Comments: 29691
564. weatherboyfsu
3:34 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
For once....and I emphasize......ONCE...I agree with Stormtop,,,this will skip TD stage and become Katrina.....and as far as Cat 5....thats possible but not probable....cat 3 or cat 4....lol
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
563. newinfl
3:34 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
79 - thanks for the responce. All of you guys/gals provide insight to newby's like me. don't want to be a pain to yal but since i'm here need to learn a little bout this. yal provide better info and more often that tv or radio. thanks again.
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
562. lefty420
3:32 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
they note a wnw or nw motion. currently it is moving w or maybe due north of west. stormt just checked this with radar. that motion in the SHORTTERM would bring the center real close to if not onland in the next few hours. she might be a depression but as of right now i am skepticle of a ts, just being realistic
561. whitewabit (Mod)
3:32 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
i found this interesting the surface for cast for 72 hours is calling for a low in the gulf

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 357 Comments: 30100
560. fredwx
3:31 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Whitewabit
The dark spots are most likely missing data due to cloud cover.
Member Since: June 8, 2005 Posts: 221 Comments: 261
559. hurricane79
3:31 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Lefty, its good to have a few good conflicting opiions, it keeps the blog interesting and allows room for error. There is no way in the world that my forecast and location is exactly right, otherwise there would be no point for discussions at all....either one of us could be correct...
558. weatherguy03
3:30 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
OK so you are telling me you are the ONLY ONE with the right info. Thats ridiculous. Alittle pompous aren't we. Oh well. Noone knows the right info right now. We are only giving our best estimates, so to keep saying everyone is wrong is just not right. Are you flying the plane int there right now?..lol
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 589 Comments: 29691
557. hurricane79
3:29 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
With that weakening fontal boundary over North Florida, the developing system should be drawn to the NW (Check out the NHC 11PM outlook which states a NW movement for now). The ridge over the SE US is fairly strong and will build back in somewhat and guide the system back to the West across FL into the Gulf. There are 2 scenarios in the Gulf. Some models over the past 24 hours (GFS, NAM, GEM) have stalled the system in the East Gulf in 3 days and turns it NE after 5 days into the FL panhandle. Other models take it Westward for some time across the Gulf. Its too early to tell what it will do in the Gulf, since it is moving so slow, it won't be in the Gulf until Friday (over 72 hours from now)
556. lefty420
3:29 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
and cuba is shaped facing the nw so even if shes on a wnw track she would still be slamming into cuba. only a nw track would keep her off cuba
555. STORMTOP
3:28 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
hey guys the radar out of camaguey looks quite impressive...there is some strong banding to the south of the island and to the north you can clearly see a circulation in the radar the convection is heavy in spots and light in the other....strong banding is there so this might be ok if it just stays off of cuba..i agree with lefty though it looks like the center at 21.0n and 75.5w is moving more west....it should be away from the mountains in the next 12 hours..it just does not look like its going to be classified as katrina when the recon gets down there...
554. Rlenz05
3:27 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
79's predicted land fall looks a little more north than Ft. Lauderdale, maybe West Palm beach.
553. lefty420
3:26 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
i never said anything bad. all i did was point out my observations on

1. the center cannot be that far north
2. the short term motion is due west or just north of west and has been for the las 4 hrs


if u don't want to have the correct info than don't if u ntc in my posts more than 6 hrs ago i was calling for this system to be a ts by the end of the day. now with its motion and loss of convection i feel less like this could happen. now the system could turn nw or even n but in the short term it is heading into cuba. that is a fact
552. newinfl
3:23 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
79 - are you predecting a fort lauderdale area land fall on the east coast? what are your predictions for the gulf?
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
551. weatherguy03
3:22 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Hey lefty do you agree with anyone..lol..Or you like to disagree with everyone. Hurricane79 puts together these nice graphics for us, respect the man.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 589 Comments: 29691
550. weatherguy03
3:20 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Yes I think finally when recon gets in we will have center. It could jump to the north if all we know. When they are organizing sometimes we will see some jumps. Nice graphics hurricane79. I like your track on 10L. I think that 97L will move more NW. But we will see.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 589 Comments: 29691
549. lefty420
3:20 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
yes 79 but that tarck is already wron cause for the short term the system ismoving w or just n of w and has been moving more onto cuba and will probly shurt cuba or cross cuba
548. HurricaneKing
3:18 PM GMT on August 23, 2005
Can I ask Lenny what he has against my nickname Lee?
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2449

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.