Subtropical Storm Andrea not changing much

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on May 09, 2007

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Subtropical Storm Andrea has changed little since it was named at 11am today. The amount of thunderstorm activity in the rainbands surrounding the center has decreased, and the cloud tops have warmed some, indicating weakening. However, the organization of the spiral bands of rainfall visible on the Jacksonville, FL long range radar has improved some, and winds at some of the offshore buoys have remained fairly constant the past few hours. Tropical storm-force winds cover a wide swath of ocean surrounding the center. Winds from the 6:44am EDT pass of the QuikSCAT satellite (Figure 1) were as high as 50 knots (57 mph) in the heaviest thunderstorms on the southeast side. Winds at Gray's Reef 45 miles southeast of Savannah, Georgia, have been just below tropical storm force this afternoon--33 mph, gusting to 38 mph.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image of the surface winds at 6:44am EDT Wed May 10. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear has increased from 10 knots this morning to about 20 knots this afternoon. Shear is expected to increase to over 30 knots late tonight. Given the unfavorable wind shear, and the fact that the storm is over waters of 24-26 degrees C, I don't expect any significant intensification of Andrea. A slow decay as forecast by NHC seems reasonable.

Early storms
The last time a named storm formed so early in the year was on April 18 2003, when Tropical Storm Ana formed near Bermuda. An unnamed subtropical storm also formed on April 21, 1992.

Longest period without a tropical cyclone ends
Andrea's formation brings to a close the longest period on record globally without a tropical cyclone. The last advisory issued on a tropical cyclone this year was at 06 GMT on April 6th, for Tropical Cyclone Cliff in the Southern Hemisphere. Today's 15 GMT advisory on Subtropical Storm Andrea ends the record longest period without a tropical cyclone at 33.4 days, besting the old record of 31.5 days set mid-April to mid-May in 1984. Reliable records of global tropical cyclone numbers go back to the beginning of the satellite era, about 1970.

I'll have an update early this evening. The next Quikscat pass is at about 8pm. The next Hurricane Hunter mission is not until 8am Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Hybrid Storm Swells (PalmBeachPHOTOG)
Just after sunrise at Juno Beach, Florida - large swells breaking half a mile offshore.
Hybrid Storm Swells

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379. Dakster
11:47 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
8pm public advisory is out... No changes...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10567
378. MZT
11:33 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
We got our rain coming. OK, I'll shut up now with the local observations. But Andrea does bring rain. :-) Be patient in GA & FLA.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
377. sporteguy03
11:32 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Jp were the fires this bad in 1998? They have cancelled School activities in some counties and everyday I wake up I see smoke.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5396
376. TheCaneWhisperer
11:31 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
As Andrea gains more tropical characteristics it will be more and more affected by things like cool sst's, dry air and shear! She's not the ULL she used to be!
375. hurricane23
11:30 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Its unlikely but somewhat still uncertain that andrea will intensify as its over water thats no warmer then 25 celsius as stated by the NHC and some upwelling is possible to lower SST'S further. Its chances of becoming tropical aren't not very high given its slow and erratic movement at the present time.A slow drift to the SW seems reasonable followed by weaken trend.Adrian
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
374. Rlennon
11:30 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
there is a bad fire in Bay county, FL. on Panama City Beach. Some main roads closed there.
373. HurricaneRoman
11:29 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
looks like convection is weakening to the north and strengthening to the south and east
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
372. homegirl
11:28 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
new blog up
Member Since: August 1, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 7425
371. sporteguy03
11:28 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Fires are now burning in 55 of the 64 counties in Florida...this storm of fire is getting real bad.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5396
369. HurricaneRoman
11:27 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Oh look!! If u look on watervapor it looks like convection is going to get around the whole center...... mayb she is strengthening
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
368. Rlennon
11:27 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Sorry, was reading and cooking dinner at the same time......My bad
367. StormJunkie
11:27 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Good to see you SG03 ☺

Yes it is.

Welcome lennon

Because intensity is the hardest thing to forecast...and what kyle pointed out as well as pat. Seas are huge out there right now. Killing the beaches.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
366. Patrap
11:26 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Hilton Head..S.C. oceancam Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
365. kylejourdan2006
11:25 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Where do you see hurricane warnings Rlennon? There are "Hurricane Local Statements", which are complete different than Hurricane Warnings
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
364. thelmores
11:24 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
kyle.... I am certainly confused about Andrea! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
363. sporteguy03
11:24 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Good Work JP on your info, now isn't intensification the hardest part of the storm to forecast?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5396
362. Rlennon
11:24 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Why is there Hurricane warnings if the storm won't strengthen much?
361. thelmores
11:23 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
fishing line!!!!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
360. kylejourdan2006
11:22 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
I just ran this image for anyone who may be confused on where the center might have gone...

Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
358. HurricaneRoman
11:21 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
oh look at the band that just went ashore around Jacksonville .... I wonder what they are getting from it... looks like a pretty good band to me
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
357. Bamatracker
11:20 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
once again sorry thel....our budget got cut! have to cut somewhere!!! Dont worry this time i'm doubling the amount of used fishing line.
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1367
356. sporteguy03
11:20 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Aren't one of the toughest things to forecast intensification??
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5396
355. Tazmanian
11:20 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
thelmores thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115346
354. StormJunkie
11:18 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
a closed semi-circle ...lol thel.

and no kidding with the dang bouy! Same thing last year with that bouy. Tie the knot tight this time guys...☺

lmao thel...

I think it gets caught up in the Gulf Stream eddys sometimes and that can not help the situation any.

ps...BT

Big props if you get that done...☻
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
353. HurricaneRoman
11:18 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Im not sure if shes strengthening or weakening .... hmmm ..this storm is tricky.... anyways... Im gonna say Andrea reaches a peak wind of 50 -55 mph
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
352. thelmores
11:18 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
"Station 41002 went adrift on 02/25/2007 and the last report from its moored position (listed above) was at 2143z. The station has been recovered and transmissions turned off. It will be restored to service when it can be worked into the schedule. When the redeployment date is known, it will be posted in the weekly maintenance report."

USE A STRONGER FRIGGIN CABLE..... will ya Bama! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
351. bocaman
11:18 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
This looks like a tropical storm
350. thelmores
11:16 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
tell em Taz.... we can use the greek alphabet again.... we got plenty of names! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
349. MZT
11:16 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Beginning to hear some thunder in Charlotte now.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
348. Bamatracker
11:16 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
sorry thel....im on my way right now!!! Just waiting for the chopper!
Member Since: May 17, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 1367
347. HurricaneRoman
11:16 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
well if they named it obviously is a storm ... its not a waste ..... there was couple storms in 05 that only reached 40 mph.... it happens.. their is always weak storms in a season =D
Member Since: February 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 959
346. thelmores
11:14 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
can somebody get off their arse and fix buoy 41002!!!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
345. Tazmanian
11:14 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 4:06 PM PDT on May 09, 2007.

what a waste of a perfectly good storm name


huh?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115346
344. MZT
11:13 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
I might feel like it's a waste of a name if this storm was named for just six hours, before a downgrade as it sloshed ashore. But it looks like she will maintain subtropical status into tomorrow, and maybe improve into a TS. So I think naming it made sense.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
343. Chicklit
11:13 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Can someone please tell me the likelihood I'll be playing tennis at 9 o'clock tomorrow morning?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11385
342. kylejourdan2006
11:13 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Does anyone else have the problem where the NOAA SSD loops keep missing an image (they get to about 4% loaded, then stop)?
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
341. kylejourdan2006
11:11 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Ya I just checked out the WV imagery and she seems to have a "road block" of the dry air within a good perimeter of her center - so she shouldn't have a problem blowing up some thunderstorms tonight. Wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a 50mph tropical storm, but anything higher is really not likely. Weaking appears NOT to be happening right now, but by Friday it should be happening.
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
340. Chicklit
11:11 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
It's dead as a doornail here in the Daytona area now...after near constant winds for about three days.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11385
339. ajcamsmom
11:10 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Posted By: ajcamsmom at 6:08 PM CDT on May 09, 2007.

OK...in case anyone has another contest...I think the next named storm will be here by May 23rd...
If you here of anyone starting a contest about it, please let me know...
Lisa

HOPE I AM WRONG
338. thelmores
11:10 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
"Posted By: StoryOfTheCane
what a waste of a perfectly good storm name"

we certainly appreciate you adding to the discussion! :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
337. thelmores
11:09 PM GMT on May 09, 2007


all we have left is the south, then we will have a closed semi-circle around the center.

to my untrained eye, Andrea continues to gain tropical characteristics.......

too bad we will soon lose the visible shots! :(

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
336. MZT
11:07 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
My bet would be on another diurnal improvement tomorrow morning. She's done it twice, and the land air mass is not as dry as two days ago. I think she could even wobble off the Gulf Stream some and and still improve overnight.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
335. kylejourdan2006
11:07 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Cantore said what I said yesterday! People had no idea the storm was really a threat when the real problems existed...but were more concerned when they found out it had a name. I honestly think that the naming of storms bring more awareness...
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
334. StoryOfTheCane
11:06 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
what a waste of a perfectly good storm name
333. Tazmanian
11:03 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
: kylejourdan2006 ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115346
332. kylejourdan2006
11:03 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Skye - I can see what you mean about Andrea being placed over that small strip of Gulf Stream warmer water, but Andrea is embedded within a pretty much stationary trough, so she won't be moving anywhere too fast. Still, she ain't gonna be NEAR hurricane strength!
Member Since: July 18, 2006 Posts: 32 Comments: 1521
331. MZT
11:03 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
The leading edge of the rain band is passing over Charlotte now... getting gloomy and breezy outside.
Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 793
330. hurricane23
11:01 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
Also Andrea is not over very warm water, and some upwelling is possible to lower SST'S further. Its chances of becoming more tropical aren't not very high given its slow and erratic movement at the present time.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
329. moonlightcowboy
11:01 PM GMT on May 09, 2007
...sounds like Andrea might like sitting on the fence!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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