Nor'easter of 2007 slowly winds down

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:25 PM GMT on April 16, 2007

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The Nor'easter of 2007 peaked in intensity at 8am EDT today with a central pressure of 967 mb, and has begun a slow decay. At 4pm EDT, the low had weakened to about 979 mb, and was centered over central Long Island. The Nor'easter is forecast to loop across southwest Connecticut and than move south across western Long Island/New York City early this evening as is gradually continues to fill. The worst of the rains and storm surge flooding have already occurred in most areas, but moderate storm surge flooding, freshwater flooding, and high winds will continue to cause problems throughout the Northeast through Tuesday night. A secondary low pressure system is expected to develop Tuesday south of Maine, leading to an increase in winds and storm surge flooding during the high tide cycles on Tuesday along the Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine coasts. Up to 2-3 feet of storm surge flooding is expected along the Massachusetts coast during high tide Tuesday night.

The highest winds at the coast from the storm were 67 mph gusting to 80mph at 2pm EDT on the Maine coast at Matinicus Rock. The highest winds on top of New Hampshire's Mount Washington were 112 mph, gusting to 138, measured at 11am today.

Central Park in New York City recorded 7.57 inches of rain yesterday, the most ever from a Nor'easter, and their second highest daily rainfall ever measured. The record was set on September 23rd 1882, when 8.28 inches fell during a slow-moving tropical storm. Rainfall had totalled 8.31 inches at Central Park by 9am today. Rivervale, NJ has had the most rain I could find thus far--9.3 inches.

Figure 1. Total precipitation estimated by radar for the Nor'easter of 2007.

River flooding
All-time record flood levels were recorded or are expected on the Ramapo, Rockaway, and Passaic Rivers in New Jersey. Many rivers were 4-5 feet above flood stage in New Jersey today.

Coastal flooding
A 4-5 foot surge along the western shores of Long Island Sound was the highest from the storm. Wave heights up to 29 feet were measured in Massachusetts Bay.

Up to 17 inches of new snow fell in the White Mountains of New Hampshire.

I'll post an update on the Nor'easter on Tuesday. My condolences to all those affected by the tragedy today at Virginia Tech, and by today's storm.

Jeff Masters

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84. SteveDa1
9:17 AM EDT on April 17, 2007
This was a bad 3 days for the US... with the storm and the unfortunate tragedy. Hope everyone is well.
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83. K8eCane
1:15 PM GMT on April 17, 2007
hope all stay safe
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82. HutchFL
12:09 PM GMT on April 17, 2007
A chance for severe weather today.....probably beginning late morning/early afternoon in north-central Texas and up to Oklahoma City.
Enough moisture has moved in and conditions look ripe enough for maybe a line of some type to set up, probably a broken line of thunderstorms around the I-35 corridor. Expect this to become more numerous in mid to late afternoon as this moves east and probably washing out in the Arklatex region early evening tonight.
Main threat should be strong winds and hail. SPC has a 5% chance of tornadoes. Low-topped supercells I expect which means quick and fast tornadoes if they do form.
Have a good day everyone.
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81. TheCaneWhisperer
11:53 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
As far as the EPAC area of question! Seems shear is rather destructive in the area.
80. pottery
6:54 AM AST on April 17, 2007

10 mm of juicy rain here in the last 24 hrs.

Sorry to note the bad happenings in the US. Keep strong..........
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79. StoryOfTheCane
7:08 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
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78. Inyo
6:19 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
Thunder01, great site, I bookmarked it and will check in on it later. There aren't enough good CA weather blogs out there.

Lightning 10, my personal opinion is that climate change (human caused, natural, or both) is causing California's climate to change on a more broad scale right now, which means that the normal weather associated with ENSO may not apply. (for instance, 04-05 being mostly ENSO neutral or very weak el nino, a stronger el nino in 06-07 bringing extreme drought).

I had a lot to say about this so I made a blog entry on my own page, since it is not related to the New York storm.

Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 905
77. Starwoman
8:06 AM CEST on April 17, 2007
What a awfull day for you people!! A heavy storm, killing people - a shooting, killing far more people...
Here it is also frontnews.
My thoughts und prayers are with the people who have to experience such terrible things.
savedbygod - that is an absolut awfull experience, having your child shot at! Hope I never have to go through something like that!
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76. thunder01
5:17 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
Quite true. Very strong correlation between strong El Nino events and tropical moisture in CA. La Nina can cause upper lows to form off the SoCal coast during the off-season (summer/fall), and funnel moisture from what few tropical systems may exist into the SW...
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75. StoryOfTheCane
5:19 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
first Pacific storm could be rapidly approaching

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72. lightning10
9:18 PM PDT on April 16, 2007
I have counted out the Epac season already. Just look at this PDF...

A dying tropical cyclone brought 2”
of rain to the mountains and deserts of
Southern California during a very
strong El Nio event of 1901-02.

A tropical storm came up into the
Gulf of California and the
southwestern United States, giving the
mountains and deserts heavy rainfall.
Needles received 5.66” of rain, twice
the normal of seasonal rainfall. This
occurred during the El Nio of 1905-

The remnants of a tropical cyclone
moved northward across northern
Baja California into the deserts of
southern California with rainfall of 1
inch at Riverside. This occurred
during the strong El Nio of 1914-15.

Four days of heavy rains from a dying
tropical cyclone brought flooding to
parts of the mountains and deserts of
southern California. Rainfall of 4.38”
fell at Tehachapi in 7 hours on 9.30.
This occurred during the El Nio year
of 1932-33.

4” of rain fell across the deserts and
mountains as a dying tropical cyclone
moved across Baja California into
southwestern Arizona. This was the
second tropical cyclone to affect
California during the busy month of
September 1939. A strong El Nio
contributed to the activity.

A tropical storm moved northward
into northern Baja California and
dissipated with rainfall of up to 4” in
the mountains on 9.30 and exceeding
4” in the mountains on 10.1. This
occurred during the El Nio of 1946-

A hurricane moving north
northwestward just off the west coast
of Baja California moved
northeastward into northern Baja
California and dissipated. Moisture
from this tropical cyclone resulted in
rainfall of 2 to 5” in the mountains
and deserts. Many roads were washed
out in the Imperial Valley, but
otherwise no major damage occurred
in southern California. This occurred
during the El Nio of 1951-52.

A west-northwestward moving
tropical storm southwest of Baja
California dissipated. Moisture from
this storm resulted in rainfall of up to
2” in the mountains and deserts, with
most falling on 9.19. This occurred
during the El Nio of 1951-52.

O and the list goes on and on....

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70. weatherboykris
4:08 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
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69. weatherboykris
4:06 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
Mitch would definitely be near the top.As is the typhoon tht wiped out the Mongol fleet invading Japan(think about the long term consequences).
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68. weatherboykris
4:04 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
And the tri-state tornado outdoes Andrew and Charley.
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67. weatherboykris
4:02 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
For one,I'd put Wilma ahead of Andrew on the list.For another,what about the European heat wave that killed ten thousand a few years back?Or the 1970 Bangladesh cyclone?
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66. weatherboykris
4:01 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
No,no,no,LOL.I can think of several events off the top of my head that outdo EACH of those.
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65. KoritheMan
3:59 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
That is what we are taling about, but I forgot it was "worldwide". Still, I'd rate, IN MY BOOK anyway, Andrew, Katrina, Ivan, Charley, and maybe even Mitch or the Great Hurricane of 1780 (DEFINITELY THAT) as the top weather event of all time.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 603 Comments: 21792
64. weatherboykris
3:53 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
Well,the TWC list is worlwide.That's what we're talking about.I thought so,anyway.
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63. KoritheMan
3:52 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
Oh, no most definitely not. Whoever said it was?
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62. weatherboykris
3:51 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
worldwide?No,Andrew is not top ten worldwide.
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61. KoritheMan
3:49 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
The tri-state tornado is definitely one of the more memorable weather events out there. I'd list Charley, Andrew, Ivan, or Katrina as number 1.
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60. weatherboykris
3:50 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
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59. weatherboykris
3:41 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
Actually,I'd put the tri-state tornado ahead of Andrew.
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58. weatherboykris
3:39 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
This would be my top hurricane,especially considering the political consequences.
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57. Skyepony (Mod)
3:34 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
Those hit by storm get tax extension
WASHINGTON People directly affected by the storm that hit the Northeast on Sunday and Monday are entitled to a two-day extension for filing their tax returns, the Internal Revenue Service said Monday.

Impacted taxpayers will have until midnight Thursday, April 19, to file their taxes. For others, the deadline this year is April 17 because April 15, normally tax day, fell on a Sunday and Monday was Emancipation Day, a legal holiday in Washington D.C.

"Because this unusually forceful storm hit within 24 hours of the filing deadline, we are giving affected taxpayers 48 additional hours," IRS Commissioner Mark Everson said in a statement.

The deadline extension is aimed at helping those directly affected by power outages or public transportation problems such as flight cancellations that made it difficult for people to file their returns on time.

Affected taxpayers, in order to avoid incurring late fees, should mark their paper tax returns with the words "April 16 Storm," the IRS said. Those filing electronically can use their software's "disaster" feature if available.
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56. weatherboykris
3:37 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
Worldwide,no.Andrew wouldn't crack my top ten,maybe not even twenty.
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55. sporteguy03
3:35 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
Oh Shouldn't Weather Underground make the list?
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54. sporteguy03
3:33 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
100 Biggest Weather Moments on the Weather Channel
Any thoughts on Andrew being #62??
That storm changed building codes, warnings, Jim Cantore etc what do you guys think? What should be number 1? Katrina??
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53. thunder01
3:34 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
As for the E. Pac. hurricane seson: La Nina generally doesn't bode well for tropical development in the tropical E. Pac. However, La Ninas can sometimes induce a pool of warmer than normal SSTs north of the main negative SST anomaly area (which is near the equator). This can aid in the development or sustenance of tropical systems off the coast of W. Mexico. Steering currents aloft are really more dependent on short and mid-term indicators than the ENSO cycle in the Epac, and these upper level winds are crucial in the transport of tropical moisture into the southwest during the summer months. This sort of warm pool north of the main La Nina region actually is present currently...take a look at the latest SST anomaly maps from the BOM. In other words...don't count out the E. Pac. hurricane season just yet...

More at
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52. weatherboykris
3:29 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
Thanks Tony.
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49. lightning10
3:22 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
So True Inyo

However I beleave the La Nina if anything takes the moisture father east into New Mexico druning La Nina years. Any moisture that trys to make it north hits that nice cold water and does nothing.
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48. ncforecaster
3:17 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
Hey everyone,

First, I wanted to say "hello" to all my old friends on here that I haven't talked to and/or seen posting on these blogs in such a long time. Naturally, this has mainly been the result of my own relative absense during the past 7-8 months or so. Moreover, I also wanted to say "hello" to all of you whom I have yet had the pleasure to meet as well.

That being said, I am still extremely busy and most likely won't be able to even respond personally to all the very thoughtful posts in my own blog that I have appreciated so immensely. On the other hand, I did have a few minutes to read through the first page (most recent 50 comments) of this blog, and simply wanted to offer my own personal opinion on a topic I saw discussed herein. As probably most of you already realize, the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season was actually slightly below normal climatologically speaking (average of the past 57 years). With that in mind, it is absolutely correct that the SAL (African dust) did indeed impede tropical cyclone formation, although it is getting too much credit in and of itself, compared to other inhibiting factors that were in place last season. To be most specific, the origination of all the troughiness in coordination with increased vertical wind shear are consistent with the El Nino phase of the ENSO cycle. Consequently, I would most respectfully argue that it was indeed the El Nino phase of the ENSO cycle that had the most significant effect (as it developed late in the season) on tropical cyclone formation, which essentially came to an abrupt halt later in the season. One only has to look at the CPC historical data on the monthly ENSO page to appreciate the aforementioned correlations. In short, the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season was mitigated by both the presence of higher than normal concentrations of African dust from the SAL, and the typical tropical cyclone inhibiting effects of the El Nino phase of the ENSO cycle. Most importantly, I want to wish each and everyone of you a great rest of the night.:)

Most sincerely,
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47. ARKpoopdeck
3:01 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
get outta town
46. weatherboykris
2:56 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
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2:44 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
t minus 1057 hrs 16 min to hurricane season
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2:35 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
as for forecasting 07 hurricane season watch out something wicked this way comes the intense nor'easter is only the beginning all indications are showing a nice setup for hurricane season higher than normal sst low shear less dust increase in water vapor over past several weeks and starting at the end of the week a warming to above nor temp by monday of next week and the placement of the high off the bahamas everything falling into place as we progress towards hurricane season
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43. TheCaneWhisperer
2:21 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
Here is a good explination of how things work in a Hurricane. It is a unique take on how things work but, lets face it, most of us are not going to school to be MET's. I found it very easy to understand without getting lost in verbage.
42. TheCaneWhisperer
2:10 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
Anomalies are, departure from normal. Yellow and Orange indicate warmer than normal, blues and purples indicate cooler than normal as portrayed in the map STL posted. Warmer anomalies mean higher sea surface temperatures which aid in the development of Hurricanes. Higher SST's are only a fraction of what is needed to support a Hurricane, only one piece of the puzzle.
41. nhlurker
2:09 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
Hi everyone. I LOVE this blog, but until now have just read it. My husband is an adjuster, so I read it alot in the hurricane season.

Today- what felt like a hurricane hit us in coastal New Hampshire. I haven't seen anything like it! The closest was the vast hail storm/possible tornado last July. It was crazy. There were flooded out streets, high winds, lakes where fields used to be, etc.

Just wanted to let you all know that you make the weather interesting. I look forward each day to logging on and seeing who's online and what you're saying. I have learned a ton.

Just wanted to give you an update from NH- it's not typical that I have anything weather-wise to contribute. I definately lived a bit of nature's wrath today.
40. hurricaneman23
1:55 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
what are anomalies? how does that effect hurricane season
39. Inyo
1:45 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
as far as I can tell, the 2006 El Nino did not cause any El Nino effects, at least around North America - the rainfall pattern of the winter (extreme drought in California and Florida, wet in the Northwest), the strong cold snap in late winter, and as someone said, little effect on hurricane activity (it may have stimulated the E-Pac some). I believe Australia has had a drought though, which is consistent with El Nino.

Interesting info on the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool. I hope it increases the monsoon this year and helps some with the dry conditions in the Southwest.
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37. hurricaneman23
1:29 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
are sst above average this year? if it is does that mean more hurricanes are likely in hurricane season?
36. Tazmanian
1:24 AM GMT on April 17, 2007
by the way is it me or dos this Nor'easter seem to be moveing back to the W or moveing down S to FL?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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