TD 11 forms in Bay of Campeche

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 22, 2005

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Satellite, radar, and surface data indicate a tropical depression is forming within the disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center will issue a special advisory on this system by 11:30am EDT today. This system is expected to move ashore over the Mexican coast and not present a threat to the U.S. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system at 5pm EDT today to see if the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Jose.

Jeff Masters

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61. whirlwind
1:37 PM EDT on August 22, 2005
hi folks...wasnt Gilbert the most powerful ever Ive been reading?
60. whitewabit (Mod)
5:36 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
stormtop
was just wondering. there was a blog about camille late last nite and was just wondering
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 375 Comments: 35445
59. STORMTOP
5:34 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
a friend of mind
58. whitewabit (Mod)
5:30 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
stormtop

whos alec?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 375 Comments: 35445
57. STORMTOP
5:27 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
lol@valence...yes wabit you are correct..camille could of had gusts to 230 no one is certain..when it picks up train tracks and bends steel buildings in half you kind of wonder maybe camille with the gusts could of been as hight as 250mph before it hit pass christian..
56. whitewabit (Mod)
5:26 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
jeff no i'm talking about camille and the 35 storm
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 375 Comments: 35445
55. STORMTOP
5:20 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
valence i agree with you on jose but i dont agree with you on td 11 path..i say it will go to s fla then the high will allow it to threaten the northern gulf coast because the high will weaken from the trough which shows up in water vapor quite clear over the midwest...it will be coming down that will allow katrina or lee whichever comes first to move on a wnn to nw path...thats my opinion after the data i read at 10am this morning...it is defenitely becoming better organized and i wouldnt be surprised to see a recon plane there later tonight....
54. jeff14photos
10:25 AM PDT on August 22, 2005
really ya right are you talking about tornadoes wabit
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53. whitewabit (Mod)
5:22 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
jeff

there have been storms with over 200mph winds
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 375 Comments: 35445
52. Valence
5:18 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Well, i just came up with my own scale. Im adding:

CATEGORY 0.5
Tropical Storms w/ winds over 50mph.

CATEGORY 13 (aka GET OUT OF DODGE)
Hurricane w/ winds over 300mph

But dont worry, i'll be the only one using this scale. No one else needs to pay attention to it.

JV
51. lefty420
5:19 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
no need to man i can read. just having good fun. the major point is that looks like the tropics are back on fire solets all enjoy it
50. jeff14photos
10:15 AM PDT on August 22, 2005
hey stomtop cat6 whats that for man there wont be one that strong gosh
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49. STORMTOP
5:19 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
thanks lefty im glad you approve....
48. STORMTOP
5:17 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
lefty i explained that im not going to repeat myself again...
47. lefty420
5:18 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
man i love you guys lol
46. lefty420
5:16 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
either way its all good stormT do what ever floats ur boat man
45. Valence
5:12 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Oh, and STORMSTOP...with your evaluation of the path of xTD-10:

Quoting Dr. Masters
"If a depression does form, it will move west-northwest and probably make landfall in Mexico, under the steering flow of a strong upper-level high located over the southern Gulf states. This quasi-stationary high has been in place for a number of days, and is not forecast to move much the next few days. This high will act to protect the Gulf Coast of the U.S. both by steering potential tropical storms westward towards Mexico, and by using its strong shearing winds to tear apart any systems that venture too close to the Gulf Coast."

So it looks like the only potential threat for xTD-10 is Cuba, the southern portion of FL, and maybe eventually TX and Mexico.

JV

44. STORMTOP
5:15 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
i dont wat you guys using this anyway its for me and alec no one else ..use the saffir simpson scale ....
43. lefty420
5:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
lol than why make a scale if only u will use it. it is not needed as a 160mph storm will do as much damage as a 200mph storm and that just detroy anything in its way lol
42. STORMTOP
5:12 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
VALENCE PLEASE SCROLL UP AND READ MY POST.......I JUST EXPLAINED WHY I DIDNT POST THAT...
41. JeffM
12:10 PM CDT on August 22, 2005
Like StormT said...only "He" will be using "his" scale.
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40. STORMTOP
5:10 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
I HAVE THE DAMAMGE SCALE ALSO I JUST THINK THATS GOOD OLD FASHION COMMON SENSE...
39. Valence
4:57 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
STORMTOP,

Your hurricane scale has one major flaw. The relation between wind speed and destructive force of a hurricane is exponential - not linear. That is the purpose of the Saffir-Simpson scale; to translate the force of a strom (and the potential for damange) into a category number that the average person can understand.

JV
38. STORMTOP
5:05 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
cfl if you read my post i made that perfectly clear i will be the only one using it...if you dont know why we need a cat 6 well we already had 2 cat 3s in july do you need anymore convincing there wont be a 5 or 6...i think the water temps are sizzling and like i said i predicted 2 cat 5s .the 6 is there only if I NEED IT AND I WANT TO MAKE THAT PERFECTLY CLEAR TO EVERYONRE ON THIS BOARD..THE ONLY REASON WHY I BROUGHT IT UP BECAUSE I FEEL THERE WILL BE A CAT 6 AND ALEC WANTED ME TO POST THE SCALE AGAIN...THIS SCALE IS NOT FOR YOUR USE YOU GUYS GO BY THE NHC SCALE..OK WE CLEAR ON THAT NOW CFL
37. CFLweather
4:59 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
STORMTOP, check your numbers for Category-5, your value is a little off.

And why do you feel the need for a Category-6? Storms in your Category-6 have happened over the years, and NHC has never changed the scale they prefer to use.

Saffir-Simpson scale uses wind velocity as a way to desribe the possible damage that the particular wind value will cause. Category-5 hurricanes cause catastrophic damage, and no matter if 156mph or 182 mph, it will still cause catasrophic damage.
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36. lefty420
5:04 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
well i do not try to predict these things. i just state the conditions. some people try to predict track and what not. i always say look and see
35. DauphinIslandDunes
4:57 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
I would like to add Category 7 for 200 or more winds. There will be no category 8. Cat 8 just not even worth contemplating. Cat 7 isn't worth contemplating either I just thought I throw a little wrench into things. :-)

Somebody ought to develop categories that consider more than just wind speed though. What do y'all think?
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34. STORMTOP
5:00 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
i agree orion the quicker the better...
33. lefty420
4:57 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
td 1o will depend on track. if it stays over water it will finally form. i like the convection with the wave over africa. would like to see a low develop as none has yet. my best bet for katrina id td 11 becomes jose is the eastern atlantic wave as it still has good defined circulation and low pressure center and convection has been trying to pick up over the center
32. nash28
4:58 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Ok, how can you guys possibly predict a weather phenomenon that is seven days (EARLIEST) away?? Also, can anyone say with certainty where the Bermuda High is currently parked and how it compares to last year??
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31. STORMTOP
4:56 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
dauphin it was like i have said all along..the dust was the problem for storms trying to develop off of africa this august...the second one will have no problem this will develop pretty quickly and move west at a pretty good clip towards the islands gainning strength every bit of the way...i would say a cat 3 when it hits the island sometime in the weekend....
30. CFLweather
4:50 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
In the Gulf (bad), or skirt up the Florida coast (much better scenario) are both possible.
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29. oriondarkwood
12:56 PM EDT on August 22, 2005
I offically predict that TD11 will hit Mexico, also that it will reach tropical storm strenght before hitting.
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28. STORMTOP
4:52 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
NO DOUBT IN MY MIND IT WILL FORM AND I THINK IT WILL TAKE A PATH TOWARDS S FLA AND THEN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...sorry about the caps...when it does get in the gulf temps are running anywhere from 88-94 degrees..that will be enough in itself for explosive development...
27. DauphinIslandDunes
4:49 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
I've noticed fairly often that the big ones coming off Africa don't get their act together. Almost like there's too much to pull together. Whereas the middle size ones seem more able to get their act together and then are more set to grow in size and organization as they move across the Atlantic.
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26. STORMTOP
4:43 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
STORMTOPS WIND ONLY SCALE

CAT 1 74 -100

CAT 2 101 - 120

CAT 3 121 -140

CAT 4 141 -160

CAT 5 161 -180

CAT 6 JUST INTRODUCED BY STORMTOP 181 - 200

THIS WILL BE THE SCALE I WILL USE ONLY....THE STORMS ARE BECOMING MORE DANGEROUS AS THIS GLOBAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES..THATS WHY I ADDED A CAT 6..IM NOT SURE THEY WILL BE ONE BUT ITS THERE JUST IN CASE I NEED IT...I WANT TO MAKE THIS PERFECTLY CLEAR THIS IS NOT WHAT THE NHC USE THEY USE THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE...SO YOU WILL GO BY THAT NOT MY SCALE...THIS IS THE SCALE ONLY I WILL BE USING...I WANT TO MAKE SURE EVERYONE UNDERSTANDS THIS....YOU HAVE NOW BEEN INTRODUCED TO STORMTOPS NEW WIND VELOCITY SCALE...LIKE I SAID BEFORE I PREDICT 2 CAT 5S THIS YEAR AND CAT 6 IS THERE IN CASE I NEED IT...
25. napleswx
4:43 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
What path do you think this area north of cuba will take if it forms?
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24. JeffM
11:35 AM CDT on August 22, 2005
Why would they send the aircraft back to investigate TD11 when its simply going to swing over and hit Mexico??
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23. STORMTOP
4:36 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
this area n of cuba is becoming much more pronounced...i would not be surprised to see a recon plane there tonight...the wave is just about to come off africa and it already has a circulation...it looks really good..cant wait until it gets over the 85 degree water around 20 degrees then i expect either katrina or lee to form...this my friends will be a cat 5 and im updating my scale i will post it asap..
22. napleswx
4:39 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Check out the spin on this loop. Link
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21. ProgressivePulse
4:37 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
I though we were rid of old 10, pretty amazing what the tropics can do. Chances of being near West Palm are???
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20. jeff14photos
9:36 AM PDT on August 22, 2005
oh ok so you cant download it and use it on the computer
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19. Sheraqueenofthebeach
12:32 PM EDT on August 22, 2005
Jeff, it's actually a radar system used by local TV stations to show storms.
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18. jeff14photos
9:32 AM PDT on August 22, 2005
no how do you get it
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17. Sheraqueenofthebeach
12:28 PM EDT on August 22, 2005
Again*
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16. jeff14photos
9:30 AM PDT on August 22, 2005
that is so cool shera how do you get it
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15. Sheraqueenofthebeach
12:25 PM EDT on August 22, 2005
gain:
is this the "model" you speak so highly of?Link

If not, more information please.
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14. lefty420
4:23 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
u can see most of the convection is south of the 26c isotherm but as it moves west the waters both to the west and east are warmer. also the northern circulation associated with the northern low is no longer present ending the light shear and intrusion on the southern low
13. lefty420
4:23 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
link to irloop of easter atlantic wave

Link
12. lefty420
4:18 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
the one thing to notice is when the first wave came off it had 2 low pressures with it. this nect wave has no area of low pressure so development would be slow. only reason i feel development is still possible with the first wave is the large defined circulation, and the low pressure and here is a link so you cane see the convection trying to build back over the center.
11. jeff14photos
9:19 AM PDT on August 22, 2005
sup guys
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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