TD 11 forms in Bay of Campeche

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:44 PM GMT on August 22, 2005

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Satellite, radar, and surface data indicate a tropical depression is forming within the disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center will issue a special advisory on this system by 11:30am EDT today. This system is expected to move ashore over the Mexican coast and not present a threat to the U.S. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system at 5pm EDT today to see if the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Jose.

Jeff Masters

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161. lefty420
9:40 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
td 11 is now ts jose
160. STORMTOP
8:43 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
well alec is a personal friend of mind who works for the slidell natl weather service...
159. whitewabit (Mod)
8:41 PM GMT on August 22, 2005

must drop off for a while will be on later
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
158. whitewabit (Mod)
8:40 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
stormtop
later i was asked to go to alec's blog but didnt know how to get there
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
157. whitewabit (Mod)
8:33 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
stormtop
this is what saint sad last nite, but didn't know who alec was am a newbe

wabbitt you experienced camille i was on alec blog jekins tried to compare it to charly and said camille and freddy were not bad because they hit rural area but he got blasted by so now he sees thelight just seems if they dont hitfla no one remembers andrew was not camille nor was charly jeanne or frances nor were they freddy you agree.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
156. whitewabit (Mod)
8:24 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
but thats a lot of ifs
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
155. STORMTOP
8:24 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
yes wabit thats the same thing im seeing....veracruz has winds out of the north at 40 sustained...
154. whitewabit (Mod)
8:23 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
stormtop

looks like 11 has slowed down, and is having trouble due to the land massbut if the high weakens and it turns north we could have a 1or 2 overnite
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
153. lefty420
8:21 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
i don't see it not moving storm t. it has moved quite a bit and will be making landfall in the next 3-4 hours. there is a nice burst of convection right over part of the center so i would suspect she is probly a ts now but we will see
152. STORMTOP
8:16 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
what site wabit......look at jose and you tell me what you see...
151. STORMTOP
8:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
a big burst of convection has developed near the center i think this is definitely a strong tropical storm ..what worries me it has not moved and the high is being squashes by the cool front over the central gulf...jose needs to get inland quick before this high weakens and lets jose come back nw or nnw...i dont like these mexican storms especially when they are not moving...
150. whitewabit (Mod)
8:12 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
stormtop

the reason I asked about alec was per sainthuurifans post 4:00 am last nite didn't know how to get to that site.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
149. STORMTOP
8:10 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
acooding to satellite loops tropical depression has stopped to a crawl just nnw of veracruz...it has moved little in the last hour...i wonder if the low is affecting its movement on the southern part of the yucatan pen.....
148. lefty420
8:05 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
i use all the imgs ir wv, dvorak and micorwave
147. STORMTOP
8:00 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
i like to use ir and water vapor wabit it gives you a better take on where the center is and i occasionally use the mic imagery as well...the best i think is the wv if its over land you can find the center very easy with the water vapor however at night ir is what i use...
146. whitewabit (Mod)
7:54 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
stormtop
jose
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
145. whitewabit (Mod)
7:54 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
stormtop

about using dvorak vs use ir or vis
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
144. STORMTOP
7:53 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
are you all talking about jose are the disturbance n of cuba..
143. STORMTOP
7:51 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
about what wabit im sorry...
142. whitewabit (Mod)
7:49 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
lefty

heres a visible aand the center in it and the dvorak look to be the same

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
141. whitewabit (Mod)
7:45 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
stormtop

your thoughts
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
140. whitewabit (Mod)
7:44 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
lefty

but wouldn't the center of intensity be the eye?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
139. lefty420
7:41 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
just the an area with the most intesnce dvorak clasification and is over the center. u could use it to determint the center but for an exact center fix when you have no visible eye is to use the other imgs all together
138. STORMTOP
7:40 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
wabit i have a few instruments but no i dont have a home weather station...
137. whitewabit (Mod)
7:39 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
stormtop

do you have a home weather station?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
136. lefty420
7:38 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
well biys feels like a little xbox time, going to jump on madden and play on line will still post just not in much detail so if my posts are short and sweet you know why
135. whitewabit (Mod)
7:37 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
lefty

so that is not an eye in the dvorak pic or just the center of intensity?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
134. lefty420
7:32 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
yes white very nice link thanks. its shortwave which is more usefull for night time use. since we have a system with a cdo blocking any veiw of what its doing the dvorak loop and the microwave imagery will be best suited to determin itensity. also since the center is so close to land while the winds mught be that strong they may not be that strong when the recon flight gets there so all in all she might never get classified as a ts. next advisory isn't till 500 or so so she might be starting landfall at that time
133. STORMTOP
7:30 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
i liike it wabit it does past the time and it makes it easier now that you can bet right off the net...
132. whitewabit (Mod)
7:29 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
stormtop

good for you. sounds very interesting
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
131. STORMTOP
7:27 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
no wabit i take it serious...i have been playing the horses and betting football since i was 15......
130. whitewabit (Mod)
7:26 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
lefty a better ir pic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR2/20.jpg
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
129. STORMTOP
7:26 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
yes lefty i agree jose but a weak jose 45mph...this should be on shore in a few hours if it keeps moving sw..
128. whitewabit (Mod)
7:23 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
stormtop

did you start out just for fun your own picks, or with a thought to make it your job so to speak
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
127. lefty420
7:22 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
no thats not the link. that is a dvorak ir intesity, i have a link to microwave imagery, i will supply again and its really usefull to see the organsational structure of a system

Link
126. STORMTOP
7:21 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
for what wabit..if you are talking about race horsing i have close to 45 clients and yes i do ok...i just sent out my football special a few days ago...i have around 15 clients for that...its cheap you will never get it as cheap from a sports service...last year in college i was 60% in the pros i was 52%...i did fairly well i had about 100 clients last year for football..
125. lefty420
7:20 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
yeah and the wall in yellow is open, showing it is quite orhanised but since measured winds were 25kts at advisory it might be stronger than that say 35 kts but doubt it is any stronger than that and with its souther wobble and proximity to land in the next few hours she will be all the way on land
124. whitewabit (Mod)
7:19 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
lefty

this is the link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/BD/20.jpg
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
123. whitewabit (Mod)
7:17 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
lefty

what am i suppose to be seeing here..isee the eye to the s and well pronounced banding right?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
122. STORMTOP
7:16 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
yes cosmic i have a few at evangeline tonight...football i have my morning line tomorroe and baseball i dont deal with it...
121. lefty420
7:14 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
i don't have my own but i have a link with the one at the elementary school tight behind my house, less than 1000 feet so i get most of my local dtat from that but once the winds hit 50 she usually goes down
120. lefty420
7:13 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
i must mention the wall feature has gotten more pronounce the past six hours which could mean it is ts strength and the recon flight will show that it is, but the open wall susggest it might not be any stronger than that
119. whitewabit (Mod)
7:11 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
may i ask who on here has their own home weather station and would like to hear from the experts what brand they are using??
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
118. lefty420
7:08 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
idocook and house work too. i also take classes at the localcollege here, figure another 10 yrs i migth get my degree lol
117. whitewabit (Mod)
7:06 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
stormtop

are your predictions good, average, fair?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32365
116. lefty420
7:06 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
microwave data of td 11 shows a open central convection
'wall" open to the north about 40-50 miles off shore. most of the ll circulation has started to make its landfall. she might be at ts strenth but do not see a closed central "wall" so this may not be. here is a link to the 85 ghz microwave data

Link
115. CosmicEvents
7:06 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
That's interesting Stormtop....seriously..do you have any horse racing picks for today. Also, do you do baseball picks?
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5684
114. STORMTOP
7:02 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
same here lefty just sit back and watch the tropics and send my football and race horsing picks out to my clients..i do all the housework and cook ...i love to cook though...
113. lefty420
6:58 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
man that sucks valence. i am so glad i don't have to work lol. all i do is watch the kids all day, wife makes all the big bucks and spends them too lol
112. Undertaker
6:58 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Again StormTop I beleive you man I think the next system to develop will head to the Caribbean and hit my beautiful Jamaica man we have seen Dennis damage our north cost and Emily recked our south coast and possible Katrina will top the two and reck Jamaica. It is so wierd that Gilbert and Ivan 2 huge hurricane came to jamaica in September. Sept 12, and September 10-11. Ivan lasted at least 2 days here in Jamaica
Member Since: August 4, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 50
111. lefty420
6:57 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
like i said stormt until i see some pressure drops with that system it will take sometime to develop. there is not low pressure center meaning atleast 12-24hrs from a pressure formation at best. so will have to wait and watch. not so sure the more western wave won't be a td and than katrina befor the other system moving off right now. gotta see the pressure fall

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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