Hot, then cold!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on April 10, 2007

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A long and severe cold snap across much of the Eastern U.S. has caused considerable damage to peach and berry crops, canceled numerous baseball games, and brought up to four feet of snow to Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Here in Southeast Michigan, we had our coldest week of April in 25 years, and a new winter storm is likely to bring 2-6 inches of snow on Wednesday. All this wintry weather comes on the heels of the second warmest March in U.S. history. The National Climatic Data Center released statistics showing that March 2007 was 5.6�F (3.1�C) warmer than the 20th century mean of 42.5�F (5.8�C) across the lower 48 states. Only March 1910 was warmer in the 113-year national record. More than 2500 daily record high temperatures were set from the East to the West Coast during the month. On the 13th of March alone more than 250 daily high temperature records were set. The earliest high of 90�F (32�C) occurred in Las Vegas that day and the daily record was broken by 6�F (3.3�C). For the month as a whole more than 200 daily record highs of 90�F or greater occurred in California, Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma, and areas of the Southeast. In contrast, Alaska had its third coldest March ever.


Figure 1. Northern Hemisphere departure of temperature from average for March and the week of April 2-9. Note how the pattern of warmer vs. colder than average temperatures reversed over North America between the two time periods. Images are plotted from the NCAR/NCEP daily reanalysis data, which has interpolation porblems over data-poor areas like the Southern Hemisphere and oceans, so these areas are not plotted. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

For the year, the U.S. has had an average January (49th warmest), colder than average February (34th coldest), exceptionally warm March (2nd warmest), and now a very cold April. Climate change science really doesn't have much to say about whether sharp temperature fluctuations like this will become more common in a world undergoing global warming. For now, I'm just attributing the past month's wild swing in temperature to natural variability. The jet stream moved to a completely new pattern between March and early April, reversing where above average and below average temperatures occurred over North America (Figure 1). Where will the jet stream set up for this year's hurricane season, determining the dominant hurricane track? I'll have my first discussion of that in late May, since the jet stream position is generally not predictable more than two weeks in advance.

Swindled?
On Thursday March 8th, the UK TV Channel 4 aired a program titled "The Great Global Warming Swindle". In the words of conservative commentator Thomas Sowell, "Distinguished scientists specializing in climate and climate-related fields talk in plain English and present readily understood graphs showing what a crock the current global warming hysteria is." I've been asked by a number of people to review the movie, but haven't found time to do so. It got yanked from youtube.com for violating copyright laws, but is available from UK TV Channel 4. The scientists at realclimate.org reviewed the movie, and call it a fraud with distorted, misrepresented, and incorrect science.

My next blog will be Thursday.
Jeff Masters

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132. hurricanetrak6671
9:52 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
weather report from lantana..... Pouring rain thunder lighning gusty winds and feirce lightningSCARY
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131. TheCaneWhisperer
9:46 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Your safe there now! Hurricane
130. StormJunkie
5:45 PM EDT on April 10, 2007
trak, no offense, but if one is coming near your area and you are still sitting here reading the blogs then I am conerened for you...

Take pat's advice...
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129. Quark
2:45 PM PDT on April 10, 2007
when i try to go to Randrewl blog that pop up

Banned
This user has been banned from the Wunder Blogs
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128. Patrap
4:46 PM CDT on April 10, 2007
Heres the Severe Page...Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
127. Patrap
4:45 PM CDT on April 10, 2007
The severe Page has all the current warnings. It refreshes every few minutes. Bookmark it for reference.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
126. Patrap
4:44 PM CDT on April 10, 2007
Have a Plan..Practice your Plan..Work your plan when a warning or Event warrants it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
125. hurricanetrak6671
9:44 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
is a tornado coming?
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124. Patrap
4:43 PM CDT on April 10, 2007

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM OUTSIDE WALLS AND
WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE.
USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
123. Patrap
4:43 PM CDT on April 10, 2007
NOAA radio. always lets ya know if ones issued. Beats waiting for the Train acoming.6
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
122. GainesvilleGator
9:34 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
GW, GW, GW...is it Hurricane season yet? The early forecasters have really built up expectations for a very active hurricane season so I am not in a hurry for it to begin.

I don't ever expect people to be in 100% agreement on most things, particularly Global Warming.

Here are a couple of things that have united this country in the past:

Bombing of Pearl harbor / WWII
Assassinatin of JFK
9/11

Here are a few things that galvanized the US Government:

The development of the atom bomb at Los Alamos.
Beating the Russians to the moon.

I suggest we unite to create more renewable resources like solar power. More nuclear power plants will also help. Do you like the games OPEC plays to keep the price of crude high? It is only a matter of time before domestic suppliers of Natural Gas & Coal do the same thing. Volatile energy prices suck & it makes things very inconvenient for everybody. It would be nice to have stable energy prices & going nuclear/solar is probably the only way to accomplish this.
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121. hurricanetrak6671
9:34 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
K thanks
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120. TheCaneWhisperer
9:31 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
The cell is weakening but I would still take cover for a bit, just in case.
119. hurricanetrak6671
9:30 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Guys i live in lantana what should i do?
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118. Quark
2:28 PM PDT on April 10, 2007
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
420 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING MISSISSIPPI SOUND...CAT ISLAND...PASS CHRISTIAN AND SHIP
ISLAND...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 419 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS FROM
PASS CHRISTIAN TO 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PASS CHRISTIAN...MOVING
EAST AT 25 KT.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.
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117. TheCaneWhisperer
9:27 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Take cover now the storm is on your doorstep!
116. hurricanetrak6671
9:22 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
oh god thats right by me
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115. TheCaneWhisperer
9:16 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
FLC099-102145-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0002.070410T2108Z-070410T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
508 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 505 PM EDT...THE PALM BEACH COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED A FUNNEL
CLOUD NEAR LANTANA ROAD AND MILITARY TRAIL IN ATLANTIS...MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE WORTH BY 510 PM EDT.
WEST PALM BEACH BY 515 PM EDT.

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM OUTSIDE WALLS AND
WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE.
USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 2671 8014 2658 8013 2658 8005 2676 8004

$$

STRASSBERG


114. StormJunkie
5:11 PM EDT on April 10, 2007
RL3A0...

StormJunkie.com Quick Links

I think you are reffering to the RAMMB Genesis site. Should be under forecast models on above link...
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113. RL3AO
9:04 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Anyone have the link that shows the probability of tropical development map? Thanks in advance.
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112. TheCaneWhisperer
8:57 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Take cover lake worth and west palm possible tornado coming your way.
111. Quark
1:55 PM PDT on April 10, 2007
hello evere one i will be takeing overe the severe weather blog come to my Quark blog if you want to talk about severe weather
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110. TheCaneWhisperer
8:53 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Tornado Signiture on D3 approacing west palm, hook echo appearing
109. HurricaneRoman
8:43 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
are these severe thunderstorms coming towards Dade and Broward county???
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108. HIEXPRESS
8:42 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Lightning Tracker
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107. hurricanetrak6671
8:29 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Hey guys whats up? quick weather report here in lantana, off on rain has been going on since about one and will countinue for a while noumorous lighning strikes and thunder much needed rain is happining :0)
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106. StoryOfTheCane
1:31 PM PDT on April 10, 2007
no circulation in the Gulf

105. StoryOfTheCane
1:31 PM PDT on April 10, 2007
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 1:04 PM PDT on April 10, 2007.

again? Randrewl got banned last year too. Whatd he do this time?
104. DocBen
8:16 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
That 'thing' west of FL looks like a strong warm front; not any sort of 'circulatory' feature.
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102. Quark
1:13 PM PDT on April 10, 2007
the severe weather blog is back i will be takeing overe the severe weather blog
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101. airman45
8:04 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Anyone remember Betsy in the 60's? Didn't she do that?

Yes, I believe Betsy did a loop in the Atlantic. First headed northwest toward the Carolinas, did a complete loop, headed southwest, then west, crossed south Florida the ended up in Louisiana.
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100. StoryOfTheCane
1:06 PM PDT on April 10, 2007
thats quite commendable, saved, welcome to the blog, your observations and predictions are always welcome here
98. StoryOfTheCane
12:57 PM PDT on April 10, 2007
yeah i dont think the Gulf is brewing anything Tropical at the moment
97. Tazmanian
1:00 PM PDT on April 10, 2007
Randrewl got ban
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96. airman45
7:59 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Sorry!
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95. Patrap
2:56 PM CDT on April 10, 2007
Ivan did the Ghost of Ivan loop 8
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128639
94. savedbygod
7:43 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
The little bit of rotation I can see is going the wrong way to build up to anything dangerous, isn't it? Please, I have been watching & tracking with the little knowledge I have & trying to learn. If I make a mistake, I welcome the correction. (but please be nice,I'm old.) (lol) My husband often says that being ignorant of the fact that you shouldn't be able to do something a certain way; allows you to do it. I predicted the landfall of Katrina's eye, very close to New Orleans, early on, long before the computers did. I also out guessed the computers on the 2 previous Hurricanes. The 2 after, I didn't do so hot.
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91. airman45
7:48 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
And Ft. Walton was 50 miles further east from the center of where Ivan struck. Shows how broad that storm was.
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90. airman45
7:44 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
jphurricane2006, I definitely understand that. The "Insurance Storm" is still going strong!
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89. Hellsniper223
7:43 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
I think we had a gust to 129 During Ivan here in Fort Walton Beach.
Power was out for three weeks after that damned storm.
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86. airman45
7:28 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Hurricane Ivan passed over Gulf Shores, Alabama and the eastern eyewall passed over Pensacola, Florida causing immense damage in Pensacola. Estimated winds over 140 mph, no accurate readings as all official NWS anemometers crashed before the worse passed over. One unofficial reading of 147 mph was taken by a private weather station. 12.9 foot storm surge in Pensacola Bay, taking a good chunk of the I-10 bridge with it. Ivan then looped up the East coast, came back down over the Atlantic, reentered the Gulf of Mexico and reformed again as a tropical storm before ending over Texas. I am originally from Pensacola. It took 5 months for my mother to get a new roof!
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85. Crisis57
7:37 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Thanks alot Thecanewhisper, so with the bermuda high located where she is what good news is that for florida and if moves west what can that say for florida and the gulf,
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83. MisterPerfect
7:30 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Anyone remember Betsy in the 60's? Didn't she do that?
Member Since: November 1, 2006 Posts: 71 Comments: 20139
82. savedbygod
7:29 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
OOOPS!! I remember now. Thank you. I am afraid my memory is not very good. I do remember watching that!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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