Hot, then cold!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on April 10, 2007

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A long and severe cold snap across much of the Eastern U.S. has caused considerable damage to peach and berry crops, canceled numerous baseball games, and brought up to four feet of snow to Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Here in Southeast Michigan, we had our coldest week of April in 25 years, and a new winter storm is likely to bring 2-6 inches of snow on Wednesday. All this wintry weather comes on the heels of the second warmest March in U.S. history. The National Climatic Data Center released statistics showing that March 2007 was 5.6�F (3.1�C) warmer than the 20th century mean of 42.5�F (5.8�C) across the lower 48 states. Only March 1910 was warmer in the 113-year national record. More than 2500 daily record high temperatures were set from the East to the West Coast during the month. On the 13th of March alone more than 250 daily high temperature records were set. The earliest high of 90�F (32�C) occurred in Las Vegas that day and the daily record was broken by 6�F (3.3�C). For the month as a whole more than 200 daily record highs of 90�F or greater occurred in California, Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma, and areas of the Southeast. In contrast, Alaska had its third coldest March ever.


Figure 1. Northern Hemisphere departure of temperature from average for March and the week of April 2-9. Note how the pattern of warmer vs. colder than average temperatures reversed over North America between the two time periods. Images are plotted from the NCAR/NCEP daily reanalysis data, which has interpolation porblems over data-poor areas like the Southern Hemisphere and oceans, so these areas are not plotted. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

For the year, the U.S. has had an average January (49th warmest), colder than average February (34th coldest), exceptionally warm March (2nd warmest), and now a very cold April. Climate change science really doesn't have much to say about whether sharp temperature fluctuations like this will become more common in a world undergoing global warming. For now, I'm just attributing the past month's wild swing in temperature to natural variability. The jet stream moved to a completely new pattern between March and early April, reversing where above average and below average temperatures occurred over North America (Figure 1). Where will the jet stream set up for this year's hurricane season, determining the dominant hurricane track? I'll have my first discussion of that in late May, since the jet stream position is generally not predictable more than two weeks in advance.

Swindled?
On Thursday March 8th, the UK TV Channel 4 aired a program titled "The Great Global Warming Swindle". In the words of conservative commentator Thomas Sowell, "Distinguished scientists specializing in climate and climate-related fields talk in plain English and present readily understood graphs showing what a crock the current global warming hysteria is." I've been asked by a number of people to review the movie, but haven't found time to do so. It got yanked from youtube.com for violating copyright laws, but is available from UK TV Channel 4. The scientists at realclimate.org reviewed the movie, and call it a fraud with distorted, misrepresented, and incorrect science.

My next blog will be Thursday.
Jeff Masters

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181. weatherboykris
11:01 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Yes storyofthecane,I'd say that.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
180. StoryOfTheCane
11:00 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
actually blue might be slightly favorable too if you correlate that with the 72 hour forecast map on my blog
179. hurricanetrak6671
10:59 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
how do i go to ur blog?
178. StoryOfTheCane
10:59 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
oh, would you say the red and purple areas are the favorable and blue and beyond unfavorable?
176. weatherboykris
10:58 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Too early for that.Wait a month or so.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
174. hurricanetrak6671
10:57 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Thanks it was scary but what do u think, like whats ur predictions for landfalls and where and howmany storms
173. weatherboykris
10:56 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Yeah,roughly about 20kt.But the maps are in meters per second.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
172. StoryOfTheCane
10:56 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
VERY active season on the rise
171. StoryOfTheCane
10:55 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
is 20 knots about the cutoff for shear being too high?
169. weatherboykris
10:54 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
I'd go with a repeat of '04.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
168. weatherboykris
10:53 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Set the model at 'GFS',the level to 'wind shear',and the domain to 'tropical atlantic'.Then press 'add map'
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
167. hurricanetrak6671
10:52 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Hey what do u guys think about the hurricane season? comin up?
166. StoryOfTheCane
10:52 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
thanks
165. weatherboykris
10:52 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Use this to get wind shear forecasts.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
163. StoryOfTheCane
10:46 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
right now i can only see shear forecasts for 72 hours :(
162. StoryOfTheCane
10:46 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
please post a link, kris
161. weatherboykris
10:39 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Have you seen the two week GFS shear forecast?Lots of breaks coming in the Carribean.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
159. StoryOfTheCane
10:37 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
yeah i saw the link, didnt bother me but I understand why it did bother others due to the fact some people could be at work on the blog, or underage.

shear is on its way out for the time being

158. weatherboykris
10:35 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
I would think a combo.The first time he was banned was for posting a......inappropriate link.I wasn't a member then,and only heard about it later.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
157. StoryOfTheCane
10:34 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
does it depend on the severity of the infraction? Or everyone gets a second chance?
156. StoryOfTheCane
10:34 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
here comes the high, the large approaching cold front will likely force it back though

155. ryang
10:29 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Yes Story...
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12440
154. StoryOfTheCane
10:27 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
so when people get banned they are able to get unbanned?
153. ryang
10:26 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Sounds good SP...LOL
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12440
152. thelmores
10:25 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Like wise Junkie.....

Maybe we'll get another opportunity to venture out again this Hurricane Season.....

I know I'll be better prepared if we do! LOL Was soaked to the bone!
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
151. weathersp
10:24 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Time to pack up the bags and go to a luxurious resort in Siberia and get a nice tan... Ahhhhh
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
150. Chicklit
10:09 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
It's finally raining in Central Florida...been dry as a bone here for weeks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
149. ryang
6:19 PM AST on April 10, 2007
If he is unbanned...and is banned again he's gone!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12440
148. StormJunkie
6:17 PM EDT on April 10, 2007
Good to see ya thel.

Checked out the SST maps yet? Things look pretty warm out there compared to the past few years. Will be interesting to see how the shear and high sets up this year...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
147. weatherboykris
10:18 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Aaron is WunderYakuza.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
146. weatherboykris
10:17 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
As far as specifics,I have no idea.But all he did was start fights.With me,STL,Bob,rocket,SG.Anyone who disagreed with him.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
145. HIEXPRESS
10:01 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Beep Beep Beep .... What?
Special-needs NOAA Weather Radio for deaf and hard-of-hearing persons
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
144. StoryOfTheCane
3:17 PM PDT on April 10, 2007
who is Aaron?
143. StoryOfTheCane
3:16 PM PDT on April 10, 2007
I agree, rand can tend to be rather arrogant and rude, otherwise not a bad guy though, we all have our flaws
142. weatherboykris
10:17 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Check Aaron's comments.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
141. StoryOfTheCane
3:11 PM PDT on April 10, 2007
does anybody know why he was banned?
140. thelmores
10:09 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
"FACT is, there are mis-truths on both sides....."

DocBen, I prefer to skip the GW debate altogether. These were my exact words from earlier today.

We should clean up our planet. period, no discussion required.

Can I put my ex-wife on the roof instead of my son? LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
139. weatherboykris
10:06 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
LOL
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
138. StormJunkie
6:05 PM EDT on April 10, 2007
Cold Doc, but lmao...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
137. DocBen
10:02 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
My tornado plan (Kansas):

Put my son on the roof with a cell phone to spot them. Put my grandchildren in the basement with their grandmother. Make sure I am beneficiary on my son's life insurance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
136. weatherboykris
10:00 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
Does nothin' but start fights.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
135. weatherboykris
9:59 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
He's a troublemaker
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
134. weatherboykris
9:58 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
I'm not surprised Rand was banned.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
132. hurricanetrak6671
9:52 PM GMT on April 10, 2007
weather report from lantana..... Pouring rain thunder lighning gusty winds and feirce lightningSCARY

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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