Major tornado outbreak in the Plains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:00 AM GMT on March 29, 2007

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A major severe weather outbreak is underway across the Plains this evening. Numerous tornadoes have been reported along a line stretching from the Texas Panhandle northwards through western Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. Softball-sized hail was reported at Pantex, Carson County, Texas, and numerous reports of high winds over 60 mph have also been relayed. You can keep track of all the storm damage reports from our Local Storm Report page. So far it appears that the tornadoes have all missed populated areas, although a tornado crossed over a rest area on I-40 in the Texas Panhandle and flipped 18-wheelers there. In addition, Sharon Springs, Kansas had an impressive looking tornado pass just two miles east of town. A large multi-vortex tornado was also reported three miles southeast of Elmwood, in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Goodland Kansas had a near miss by another impressive tornado that passed five miles to the east.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of the March 28, 2007 tornado as it approached Sharon Springs, Kansas.


Figure 2. Radar velocity image of the March 28, 2007 tornado as it approached Sharon Springs, Kansas. Note the area of blue and red echoes just south of the circle with a "+" inside it that marks the location of Sharon Springs. The blues and reds show that strong winds going both towards and away from the radar exist in a small area, denoting the presence of a parent mesocyclone (rotating thunderstorm) and a tornado.

I'll be back Thursday morning with a summary of the severe weather outbreak.

Jeff Masters

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45. Fl30258713
1:49 PM GMT on March 29, 2007
Trouper415,

Did you get that image loop from the movie "The day after tomorrow" lol.

Link


This is a freaky set up for weather extremes. Will it hold together and once the jet stream gets north of GOM is the moisture from the south from the GOM and from the Atlantic on the south side of High Pressure going to keep this engine going.
Flooding in the eastern US to come?
Member Since: July 24, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 981
44. Skyepony (Mod)
1:39 PM GMT on March 29, 2007
Here's the NAO history & forecast, though I don't give this model much wieght.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
43. hurricane23
1:19 PM GMT on March 29, 2007
Ringo some words of advise its really not wise to use models at this time to forcast were the bermuda might set up this hurricane season.Its difficult thing to forcast 2-3 in advance amagine 3 months.Its all about trofs and ridges with tropical systems.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
42. TheRingo
1:18 PM GMT on March 29, 2007
very nice adrian!
41. hurricane23
1:16 PM GMT on March 29, 2007
Ringo visit my model which offers alot of models you can use.

My model page.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
40. TheRingo
1:14 PM GMT on March 29, 2007
thanks hurricane23. Is there a longer range model?
39. hurricane23
12:59 PM GMT on March 29, 2007
Posted By: TheRingo at 02:19 EDT le 29 mars 2007.

Where can you see a model that forecasts the position of the bermuda high (NAO)?

Here are 2 i use..6 hour GFS forcast-1000 mb winds GFS
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
38. CrazyC83
12:03 PM GMT on March 29, 2007
Today is a crapshoot. I can see why the SPC stayed with a Slight Risk as confidence just isn't there. There is a chance - albeit a modest one - we could see another major outbreak today, but it is conditional on the dryline advancing eastward and the squall line getting far enough away too allow daytime heating.
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
37. TheRingo
6:19 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Where can you see a model that forecasts the position of the bermuda high (NAO)?
36. TayTay
5:16 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
It just exploded into one very large storm.
35. RL3AO
4:03 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
This might be a 3-4 day event. Could reach a pretty high number of tornados.
34. Skyepony (Mod)
4:00 AM GMT on March 29, 2007

Nexsat
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
33. Skyepony (Mod)
3:59 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
This overall, has more of a south to north thing happening.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
32. RL3AO
3:48 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
I find it wierd that there is just a little over a 2 to 1 ratio of hail to tornadoes reported. Normally, the ratio is alot higher than that.
29. Trouper415
3:39 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
When is the last time we have seen an outbreak like this one?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
28. Skyepony (Mod)
3:29 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Trouper the satalites on this are incredable. About 5 hours ago, the cap over the dryline could be seen just beginning to give way. Checking the surface map 997mb
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
27. Trouper415
3:14 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Check out this radar of the thunderstorm outbreak. The pace at which this storm is exploding is amazing.

Check this out:

Outbreak
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
26. Skyepony (Mod)
3:07 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Big hail..

0220 425 BENKELMAN DUNDY NE 4005 10154 (GLD)

That's 4 1/4" hail
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
25. Skyepony (Mod)
3:05 AM GMT on March 29, 2007


Click to make bigger
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
24. Skyepony (Mod)
3:03 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
I noticed the beginning of this outbreak & went back to fininshing the recommended read "Storm Warning". Then come back to this..

These look huge.
0100 14 NNW ARTHUR GRANT NE 4176 10180 TORNADO ON GROUND FOR 30 MINUTES FROM 800 PM TO 830 PM CDT. NO DAMAGE REPORTED. (LBF)

0122 7 SW GRANT PERKINS NE 4077 10182 2 TORNADOES ON GROUND. ONE LARGE CONE AND ANOTHER SMALLER TORNADO. HEADING NORTH EAST. (LBF)

0133 6 NW GRANT PERKINS NE 4091 10181 SPOTTERS REPORT A HALF MILE TO MILE WIDE TORNADO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRANT. MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. (LBF)

0125 3 N ENSIGN GRAY KS 3770 10023 LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND (DDC)

0130 9 S BIRD CITY CHEYENNE KS 3962 10153 LARGE WEDGE (GLD)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36084
23. hurricanic
3:02 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
This is, perhaps, the most interesting thunderstorm complex I have every viewed on satellite.

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
Member Since: August 9, 2006 Posts: 7 Comments: 130
22. G35Wayne
2:52 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
weather is my friend!
21. SteveDa1
2:29 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Wow, this is one big severe weather outbreak. Hope that the people living there stay safe.
Member Since: October 17, 2006 Posts: 60 Comments: 1297
20. weatherboykris
2:20 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
thanks
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
19. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:41 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
they're just storm ids for each of the cells
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43666
18. auburn (Mod)
1:39 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Thank you DOCTOR
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 546 Comments: 50222
17. V26R
1:24 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Adrian, what are the Letter/Number designators mean?
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
16. auburn (Mod)
1:24 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Doc ...please contribute to rands blog if you can...He and his crew are doing an awesome job of helping people in harms way...Thanks
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 546 Comments: 50222
15. hurricane23
1:18 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Here is a better view at these tornados...The red tracks indicate high possiblity of tornado on the ground.


Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597
14. ryang
1:16 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
V26R you have mail!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
13. V26R
1:12 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
From the looks from the bird, looks as if ITCZ still way south and not too much action over the Atlantic




Link
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
12. Frozencanuck
1:10 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Thanks Dr M but we have been keeping update information available on Randrewl's blog for most of the evening. We appreciate your bringing it to the attention of folks that need this information.
Member Since: December 8, 2006 Posts: 42 Comments: 4738
11. ryang
1:09 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
More here on La nina.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
10. ryang
1:09 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Well La Nina is now getting stronger.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
9. V26R
1:07 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Been away for a while, I miss anything special?
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
8. ryang
1:06 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
V26R something new like what???
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
7. philliesrock
1:06 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
These 2 storms look bad: one has 3 inch hail and the other has a tornado.

storms

Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 65 Comments: 3197
6. V26R
1:05 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Hey Ryang & 23
Anything new?
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
5. weatherguy03
1:05 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Thanks for the update. Gonna be a long night for some.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 589 Comments: 29691
4. DenverMark
1:05 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
This is ugly tonight!!
Member Since: February 11, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 6988
3. V26R
1:04 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Only one simple comment
Tornados are NASTY!!!
Thanks Dr. M
Mike
Member Since: July 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1762
2. ryang
1:03 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Thanks Dr.M....hope everything works out well.
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12397
1. hurricane23
1:02 AM GMT on March 29, 2007
Thanks Dr.Masters for the update...God be with folks in the path of these tornadoes.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13597

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.