Tropics beginning to heat up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:20 PM GMT on August 21, 2005

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The tropics are beginning to heat up again, and the current period of calm will likely be short-lived. There are three areas of possible tropical development worth mentioning today, and we will also discuss the possibility of extremely active conditions developing 7-10 days from now.

Yucatan and southern Gulf of Mexico
A strong tropical wave crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula has an impressive and increasing amount of deep convection, and already appears to be gaining some rotation. Once the center of this circulation moves out over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, chances are good that a tropical depression will form. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate tomorrow afternoon, if neccessary. If a depression does form, it will move west-northwest and probably make landfall in Mexico, under the steering flow of a strong upper-level high located over the southern Gulf states. This quasi-stationary high has been in place for a number of days, and is not forecast to move much the next few days. This high will act to protect the Gulf Coast of the U.S. both by steering potential tropical storms westward towards Mexico, and by using its strong shearing winds to tear apart any systems that venture too close to the Gulf Coast.

Cape Verdes Islands tropical wave
The vigorous tropical wave that pushed off the coast of Africa Friday night is now just southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. The wave has a large circulation centered at 13N, and some strong deep convection to the south over the ITCZ with surface winds of 15-20 knots. Waters are warm, shear is light, and some computer models predict this wave will develop into a tropical storm. The GFS model predicts that a tropical storm will form from this wave on Wednesday and recurve in the center of the Atlantic Ocean towards the Azores Islands by early next week.

Remains of TD 10
The remains of TD 10 are just north of Hispanolia, and kicking up some moderate convection there. No circulation is apparent on satellite imagery, and surface pressures are not falling in the region. Although shear values are currently low, the remains of the depression are tracking due west towards Cuba and towards the shearing winds of the strong upper-level high over the southern Gulf states. This system will bring strong winds and heacy rain to the Bahamas and Cuba, but for now appears unlikely to develop into a tropical storm.

Forecast for 7-10 days from now
The GFS has been consistently predicting a very active period of hurricane development beginning late this week and running through the the end of the 16-day forecast period of the model. In my previous blog entry from Friday, I posted the GFS forecast for August 31, showing its prediction of three simultaneous tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. One and a half days later, the GFS is still predicting three tropical cyclones for August 31--although the northernmost one wasn't predicted last Friday, and is in fact the storm that is predicted to form from the current tropical wave just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.


It bears repeating that computer forecasts of specific tropical storms developing are VERY unreliable--particularly out seven days and more from now. The GFS is likely to be dead wrong about the specific timing of the tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa, which waves might develop into hurricanes, and where in the ocean they may develop. What is believable is the GFS's forecast of a fundamental shift in the general atmospheric circulation leading to an enhanced period of hurricane activity starting later this week.

Jeff Masters

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446. Sheraqueenofthebeach
3:47 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
NEW POST By DR MASTERS
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3140
445. lefty420
3:40 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
80miles west moving west at 8 mohs. winds of 30mph so she could form into a ts prior to landfall but landfall will be in about 10 hrs so we will see
444. lefty420
3:39 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
td 11 has formedmore info as i get it.

nowmost models try to form a cyclone from the bahamass disturance. the key for how significant will be if it passes over southern florida or stays over water ie passing over the keys. the models that bring it thru the keys forms a very strong cyclone will def have to watch that
443. STORMTOP
3:25 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
THANKS 53 IM WELL AWARE OF THAT SYSTEM AND YES IT COULD BE A CAT 5 OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF..i think we will have to watch it closely right now because it could become katrina late tomorrow and affect the s fla area for sure and then the central gulf...this is going to be a busy period 53 i said this over 3 weeks ago...we better get ready im predicting 6 maybe 7 storms will hit the usa...
442. Sheraqueenofthebeach
3:18 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
sore*
two*
TEMPER.
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3140
441. STORMTOP
3:15 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
lol@hazmat know comment and i will not comment any further towards your posts to me...you are a soar loser i gave up a lot saying that wave would not develop..remember i was the first one that came out with the african dust and i did say we would have a big lull in the first 2 weeks of august..i also said the activity would increase greatly by the 21st of august i dont need computers to tell me that hazmat..im sorry you are such a soar loser but thats the way things go you were all excited sat night and sunday laughing at me when i said it wouldnt develop now laugh at me again im predicting to cat 5's this season and yes they will both affect land areas...the only thing lefty and i agree on is jose will go into mexico and i say the quicker the better...so dont bother me with your childish remarks anymore..if you have a problem take it up with the staff on here or dr jeff....biggest thing i can tell you is GROW UP!!!!!!!!!
440. Sheraqueenofthebeach
3:13 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Is this the Vipir you speak so highly of?Link
If not, pray tell, more info?
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 3140
439. lefty420
3:11 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
stormt i respect your opinion. and good forcats on the bay of campeche, though a depression and could make it to storm that is highly unlikely given its limited time till landfall. the showers in the bahamas needs to get better organised and drop some pressure which it has not done. for my wave it is still a 1008 pressure center and a very good circulation and it has convection over the center. i would love to see both these systems to develop but my wave needs just time and the one in the bahamas needs time to, if it moves away from land it could take off but since it has no low pressure at the surface it will take alot oftime we will watch
438. lefty420
3:07 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
hazmat while i appreciate you sticking up forme no need. i respect their opinions and willcontinue to watch a strong circulation and low that is now in a better situation now, but we do need to watch the other to systems tho it is probly 11 it will be making landfall in mexico in a matter of hours but does show how quickly a system like the one in the bahammas could drop pressure and become a cyclone. everyones opinion is great and no need to argue. thanks every one for some great forcasts
437. 53rdWeatherRECON
3:06 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Storm Top: Sory about that I just read your input...
"dont get caught knapping that system i mentioned could be lee could be affecting the northern gulf and s fla if the atmosphere stays like it is now and i see no reason for it to change with a huge building high over us right now...it should stay for a least 4 days before moving out...the system is to close to land whirwind but that would be our next problem not jose in the bay of campeche"

But you just touched on the topic and didn't provide any pictures or models. Don't you know people respond better to pictures.
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
436. STORMTOP
3:04 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
i think whirlwind it has a pretty good chance of affecting s fla anf the central gulf coast...right now its to close to land to develop but tomorrow i think this is the next depression..the waters are very warm 94 degrees ..this could be a cat 5 if it gets over the gulf waters and warm gulf stream...it also could be katrina....i dont care i think katrina will be the 1st cat 5 of the season ....lefty its over i dont want to argue with you either..i respect you and im sure giving your wave another 48 hours it should develop into a depression...lefty its your wave thats sending the other wave that looks like a depression already and is still on the coast on a westward track towards the islands....lefty you deal with computers and thats great i respect you for that but i just deal with one and thats the viper....it is hardly ever wrong...you right jose will go into mexico and i hope quick so we can get the show on the road...
435. lefty420
3:03 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
53, if the wave over the bahamas moves itnot he gulf she would have a good chance to develop into a cyclone but theres no low pressure at the surface. if the pressusre starts to fall it willprobly take off here is a link to the surface anaylasis.

Link
434. napleswx
3:02 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
53rd, sure looks like this thing will track across southern Florida or just south, better keep an eye on this one is right.
433. hazmat
3:02 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
You will show me 20 storms that have developed off the coast in the 36 hrs you gave lefty? HUH!?!?!

If that wave were to be a tropical depression when coming off the coast of Africa it will spin the fishes & not you.

No doubt we'll probably see some serious hurricanes this season...Cat 5...who knows? Certainly not you!! That was never part of the debate.

"Lefty's wave" is not out of the picture...be interesting watching 11...no threat to U.S....hope the flooding, etc...isn't too bad for Mexico.

More immediate concern is the remants of 10...you know the one you yelled at people for still talking about?

You're an idiot & so are the people who put any kind of credibility towards you.
432. whirlwind
3:00 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
LOL.. local channel 7 news is so lame...

"Breaking news, TD11 has just formed minutes ago and we are tracking the storm for you!"

Who cares...its shortlived..
431. 53rdWeatherRECON
2:58 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
By the way Storm T. I enjoy your perdictions about those systems off of Africa and Mexico. But I want you to track the S Fl system.

Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
430. STORMTOP
2:56 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
53 scroll up i talked about that earlier ...where have you been...
429. whirlwind
2:56 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Stormtop-- if that depression near Bahamas does organize, what do you think about it? I know storms can go from cat1 to 4 over night, but what are the probabilities for strenght of that storm?
428. lefty420
2:56 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
good morning everyone. bay of campeches storm is very nice this morning. she will not have any more than 12 hrs over water and while she might make it to jose to do belive she is a td at this point. looks good though

now for my lovely african wave. all of the convection is located at the center of a very broad circulation. the northern circulation that had been interupting and pulling in shear and dust has since dissapated. still looks as is a tropical cyclone will form in 24 -48 hrs.

the showers over africa do not impress me much yet. there is no surface low and most of those storms ar fired up in the itcz, but will be nice to see what she does when she comes off.

now i appreciate allof your opinions on this matter and would love to disscuss allof this, but storm and you other guys i will not argue. thanks
427. newinfl
2:53 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
53rd thanks for the link. looks like s/fl and gulf will have problems later in the week. hope it does not track to the pan handle. we have had all we can handle. let it go to la or texas.
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
426. STORMTOP
2:52 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
hazmat i see you still have a problem..you cant admit when you are wrong..thats ok look i cant stop whats going to happen this year..there will be 2 cat 5s and there is nothing we can do about it hazmat just except it..look i respect lucky and i always will ..i was even pulling for him hazmat but face it i will show you 20 storms that developed off the coast in the 36 hours lefty was provided..i even gave him 6 extra hours ..you think he will give me that?well the difference i explained but this already looks like a tropical depression and its still on the coast...now thats scary...
425. 53rdWeatherRECON
2:49 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
StormT - Why are you watching systems that may or may not affect the US seven to ten days out. Especially when there seems to be a more legitimate threat right under our noses.
MIAMI Fl should be watching this system - Link

Only 48hrs away and possiblity of becoming a bigger problem.

I have argued against the computers before and they are bad at picking up developing systems but if anything it atleast deserves our imediate attention.
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
424. STORMTOP
2:46 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
lol@whirlwind lets get him inland as quick as possible....we have a lot of serious trouble ahead of us...
423. STORMTOP
2:43 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
it will be a tropical storm later today jose will be born but very short lived....
422. whirlwind
2:42 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
hey ese...lets run fer the border...Jose is comming..ahhhh...LOL



(no phun intended)
421. newinfl
2:41 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
NHC jsut listed td 11 in bay of camp.
Member Since: August 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 11
420. STORMTOP
2:40 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
you are right 53
419. STORMTOP
2:39 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
im sure they will find jose when they get domt to the bay of campeche,,,stations along the mexican coast are reporting sustained winds of 30mph with gusts to 38...veracruz reported sustained winds to 25 mph in the last hour....this will be jose as soon as the recon plane gets there...
418. 53rdWeatherRECON
2:38 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
NaplesWX, you me and Raysfan are all hoping technology isn't all it's cracked up to be. I have no idea how good that CMC model has been but when I backed it up with I think the GFS - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005082206&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr it also sees atleast a Tropical System off the west coast of Florida in 5-6 days?????
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
417. whirlwind
2:37 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Im going to write this down in ink about Katrina. Now Stormtop, if your prediction is correct about this one...yeeehaw its gonna be a rough ride from here on...

53rdWeatherRECON -- thats one crazy model. I guess with 90 degree water it may happen..
416. hazmat
2:35 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Stormflop...why give a time frame? He stated his opinion just like you obnoxiously ram yours down everyones throat.

For this discussion...since you do...I'll call it "Lefty's wave".It's not dead yet & since you want a Cat 5 so bad you should know that the longer a system takes to develop out there the further west it will get & the stronger it will be. Since that is the case you should be glad it isn't rapidly intensifying & you should hope your future Katrina or whatever you want to call it doesn't either..That way you get your destructive Cat 5 & your jollys at the same time.Why be so pious & egotistical? Why not share in friendly debates & learn something yourself? Why the playground mentality?

I usually don't feed trolls but you seemed hungry. Used to get some decent info here...watched things go from ugly to hilarious to sad & now it's down right ridiculous. Have respect for Masters & Gregory so I'm really surprised they continue to let this go on...Oh well, their board not mine...or yours either.

415. HillsboroughBay
2:32 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Stormtop.

Your info says you are in California. Strange you are so interested in major storms which would affect Fl & the EAST coast? Hillary looks pretty potent.

I hope you are wrong about "Katrina" unless it become s fish storm & cools the Atlantic.

414. RMcD
2:31 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Does anyone know ahat bastardi posted this morning ?
Member Since: August 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
413. STORMTOP
2:29 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
which wave or you referring to the one thats off the coast or the one that is about to move off the coast.......
412. napleswx
2:29 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Wow 53rd, I hope that CMC model is wrong. That is pretty impressive.
411. STORMTOP
2:26 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
van everyone is entitled to there opinions...you stick with yours...thats how you will learn..if i can help you in anyway let me know...
410. Lovethetropics
2:22 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
So Stormtop do you think that the wave off Africa is going to cross the caribbean? That's not good. I live in Puerto Rico.
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11302
409. 53rdWeatherRECON
2:21 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
This would be pretty scary if the cmc model was correct!!!!
Link

Most of the other models see a much smaller system that seems more likely
.Link
Member Since: August 5, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 80
408. STORMTOP
2:19 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
hillsbay because i been through 2 cat 5 s in my lifetime and this one set to come off the african coast is looking like a depression already...this is what im saying will be katrina and rapid strengthing towards the islands...i predicted to cat 5s this year...
407. VancouverWX
2:18 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Hi Fellow WXers,

I think that I figured out why TD10 had such a hard time forming. It was going through a gender identity crisis. It looks like we have Jose in the gulf, and then Katrina in the northern bahamas.

Kat is going to sit off the coast of Flordia and strengthen to a Hurricane, move across Flordia into the gulf, and then become a major hurricane and move on toward Texas.

Lee will form from the Cape Verde wave and head off to sea, but not before becoming a hurricane.

Just my humble opinion, and I have no experience or credibility whatsover ... so please don't move from your house in Texas just yet.

VancouverWX
406. STORMTOP
2:15 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
well hazmat what do you think about my dust getting in to leftys storm now...you were one of my biggest critics...what do you say now...the one behind it ready to come off of africa will be my baby katrina and will be the 1st cat 5 of the season....i guess you will have something else to say about my prediction here to...go ahead it makes me look all the better...i can handle rejection im here where is lefty..he has exactly 2 hours for this thing to become a tropical depression...dust is very strong to a hurricane when it gets in its circulation..it disrupts everything...its like a car when you pour sugar in the gas tank or water in your oil....
405. HillsboroughBay
2:12 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Please do not take this as an insult!
but Stormtop!

Why do you just like to say "Cat5" so much?

Just an observation.

All stay SAFE!
404. hazmat
2:10 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Funny...I mention the BOC systems for potential yesterday @ 10:18 pm GMT...as well as recon being scheduled...and get scoffed at.
403. STORMTOP
2:09 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
jeff if you are referring to me i dont use the track models except one and thats viper...we only use that for storms in the gulf like jose whi is going into mexico as a strong tropical storm possibly a cat 1 hurricane on wedenesday...
402. STORMTOP
2:04 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
it will whirwind first we have to get jose on shore in mexico out the way..then the one at 22.0n 72.5w should be lee by late tomorrow and then the baby katrina a super cat 5..i will be bringing out my new hurricane scale today..katrina will move at 18-20 and be affecting the islands by late in the weekend....we have to pay attention so we dont get caught knapping that system i mentioned could be lee could be affecting the northern gulf and s fla if the atmosphere stays like it is now and i see no reason for it to change with a huge building high over us right now...it should stay for a least 4 days before moving out...the system is to close to land whirwind but that would be our next problem not jose in the bay of campeche..its going into mexico...i predict it will be jose today its looking good down there...
401. whirlwind
1:55 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
hello Stormtop.. thats quite a prediction. A cat5 named Katrina. That so called TD10 needs to get outta the way and stop sucking up all the warm waters.

If your Katrina sucks up Lefty's wave, thats one big ass storm. What happened with Jose?
400. JeffM
1:48 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
Where is the link that shows all the track models you are using? As in where they predict these storms are going to?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
399. STORMTOP
1:44 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
i agree with you saint it looks better organized and it more concentrated this morning...i dont think it will do much until it moves away from the land areas...the one thats doing something and that i hoped may be jose is the one in the bay of campeche...leave my katrina thats cming off the african coast will be the first cat 5 of the season...this is becoming better organized and does not have any dust to deal with...this will also travel towards the caribbean sea and play hell with the iaslnds by the weekend...leftys wave is going to be sucked up by katrina who is coming off the coast today...yes saint i agree with you if this develops we might have out hands full the one two punch...i just hope its not katrina..ill settle for lee...i want the one off the african coast to ba katrina...i think jose will form sometime today in the bay of campecehe..it needs to get on shore in mexico as fast as it can so we can get him out the way and concentrate on the one two punch thats going to threaten us later this week ..katrina will be the following week...im predicting to everyone on here the next wave that moves off the coast will be a cat 5 amnd it will move west quick and be affecting the islands by the weekend...
398. jeff14photos
1:28 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
hello
397. jeff14photos
1:17 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
hi well who knows what nature has instore for us
396. SAINTHURRIFAN
1:15 PM GMT on August 22, 2005
watch for system north of 21n 72w there will be your main interest b/c headed for tacos the other 2 off africa still are
chasing lions and tigers guys central fla and n/c gulf watch out. maybe you dust fans and tarzan fan will change your focus.
see you later. have a good morning.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.