March madness forecast competition

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:30 PM GMT on March 12, 2007

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March madness is upon us, and a just-for-fun weather forecasting contest--the annual Weatherdance competition--is now open for registration. The contest, sponsored by the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Science at the University of Michigan, challenges you to choose which of the competing campuses in the first round of the NCAA Men's and/or Women's Basketball Tournament will be warmer on game day. After the first round, the teams still in the Weatherdance will not be the same as those who continue on in basketball. Thus, the Final Four in the basketball tourney will be different than the "Fahrenheit Four" in the Weatherdance. Your picks for each round must be made by midnight on the night before the game.

If you'd like to play along this year for the prizes (and glory), please register by 11:59pm EDT Wednesday night at http://www.weatherdance.org/. This year's prizes include our rainbow-colored Weather Underground umbrellas (not available to the public except through this contest) and copies of the book, Extreme Weather. If you're a K-12 teacher, you have the chance to win a the grand prize--a free storm-chasing trip in May with the University of Michigan/Texas Tech storm chasing team!

Southern California wild fires
Hot, dry Santa Ana winds have been blowing over Southern Califonia the past few days, bringing record high temperatures in the 90s and dangerous fire conditions. This weather pattern should continue to bring record warmth today, then subside by Tuesday.

There were 11 daily record highs set or tied in Southern California on Sunday March 11th:

Camarillo Airport (94 degrees)....old record 88/2004
Oxnard NWS (94 degrees)....old record 87/2004
Long Beach Airport (94 degrees)....old record 87/1959
Santa Maria Airport (91 degrees)....old record 85/1934
Santa Barbara (89 degrees)....old record 82/2004
Sandberg (72 degrees)....old record 67/2005
U.C.L.A. (87 degrees)....old record 86/1959
Pasadena (93 degrees)....old record 89/1997
Lancaster (82 degrees)....old record 80/1997
Paso Robles (83 degrees)....old record 82/2005
Cal Poly (86 degrees)....old record 86/1997 tied

I'll be back Tuesday with a look at the lessons learned from the great May 3, 1999 tornado.

Jeff Masters

60ft Flames in Anaheim Hills (BlueDV)
Red Flag conditions and hot dry Santa Ana winds drive flames towards these upscale homes.
60ft Flames in Anaheim Hills

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65. Patrap
3:59 PM GMT on March 13, 2007
Yo!,,ric Lives..Im here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
64. Inyo
3:58 PM GMT on March 13, 2007


in 8 days.

I'll believe it when i SEE it!

rain for southern CA AND southern Florida.

Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
63. TayTay
9:03 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
Indlala has a nice pinwheel eye.
62. Tazmanian
5:49 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
hello : JUSTRICK and sky have a good night
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
59. Skyepony (Mod)
5:19 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
Man questioned, another sought in Oceanside arson fires
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38146
58. Tazmanian
5:16 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
Posted By: JUSTRICK at 9:55 PM PDT on March 12, 2007.

hhhmmm....off season sucks


LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
57. Skyepony (Mod)
5:14 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
Map of fires out west
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38146
56. Skyepony (Mod)
5:13 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
TX tok our rain...2 Dead in Texas Flooding After Rain ~ Turn around..don't drown.

Tropical disease kills two in Northern Territory

CME to launch weekly weather futures and options contracts
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 173 Comments: 38146
49. pottery
2:47 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
Hello.........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24382
48. Inyo
2:29 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
yeah i wouldnt be surprised if the next run went back to totally dry
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
47. lightning10
2:17 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
I will have to look at that GFS model Inyo. Thanks for the heads up. The past few weeks I have gave up hope and I only cheak the GFS once a week. Durning earlyer in winter (and a lot in fall) I would cheak it evey new run.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
46. Inyo
2:12 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
Believe it or not, the latest GFS is actually showing some significant rain in parts of so-cal next week. Granted, it's only half an inch at the most but we'll take it.

last year it rained several inches in april. since the 'bizarro el-nino' that encouraged this drought is over, perhaps we will get another wet april.
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
45. Tazmanian
12:56 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
Ldog74 oh sorry
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
44. Ldog74
12:50 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
i was referring to weatherboykris about him saying that the blob u were previously speaking of is right on the equator, i know u were talkin bout rain on your last post
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
43. Tazmanian
12:45 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
and was i talking about that? nop


i was talking about rain


thanks : Ldog74 i no
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42. Ldog74
12:41 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
Taz's blob is 150-300 miles from the equator
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41. ryang
12:37 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
no i want the rain we need it more then FL

LOL Taz!
Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 329 Comments: 12440
40. Tazmanian
12:35 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
no i want the rain we need it more then FL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
39. weatherboykris
12:32 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
Posted By: Caffinehog at 11:41 PM GMT on March 12, 2007.

Weatherboykris:
It IS possible for storms to form close to the equator, if something other than the coriolis effect gives them spin. There have been 3 stoms forming within 2.2 degrees of the equator, as outlined here.

That being said, I don't expect anything to happen here, and neither should anyone else.



I know things can occur near the equator,but Taz's blob was right on the equator.I agree,nothin's gonna happen.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
38. hurricane23
12:17 AM GMT on March 13, 2007
Indeed plywoodstatenative i expect the drought conditions across south florida to get worse as the weeks go by with no significant rain chances anytime soon.Pretty typical with La Nina being around.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13804
37. plywoodstatenative
11:57 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
No this is what I want, I want that blob or whatever it is to get all the rain from the caribbean and then perch directly on top of South Florida. We need the rain desperately.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
36. Tazmanian
11:54 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
: Ldog74 nop


SOME ONE SEND SOME RAIN IT IS SO DRY OVERE HER WE NEED IT I TAKE 4FT OF RAIN HEY WHY NOT WE MAKE IT 10FT OF RAIN ALL IN ONE DAY THAT WILL MAKE IT UP BIG TIME LOL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
35. Ldog74
11:52 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
Indlada seems to be on the same track as Gamede, meaning that IMO it will not reach its projected intensity because of the upwelling and cooling of the waters caused by Gamede. It could be a big rain producer for Madagascar however.
Taz, you never relent on your hopes of early formation do u
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 165
34. Caffinehog
11:41 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
Weatherboykris:
It IS possible for storms to form close to the equator, if something other than the coriolis effect gives them spin. There have been 3 stoms forming within 2.2 degrees of the equator, as outlined here.

That being said, I don't expect anything to happen here, and neither should anyone else.
Member Since: June 5, 2003 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
33. Patrap
11:35 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
The Sunset begins here..Link
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
32. Tazmanian
11:14 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
Weather Underground umbrella modeled by Dr. Jeff Masters


hey dr m did you make that umbrella? if you did vary nic job i like it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
31. Tazmanian
11:12 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
hello
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
30. lightning10
11:08 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
Funny last year around this time we in So Cal where talking about a weak storm system that brought snow levels to 1,500 feet with a few inches of snow and a sleet hail mix in the valleys and some uppper elevations.

Today record heat with temps in the upper 80's to upper 90's.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
29. weatherboykris
10:36 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
Interesting
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
28. philliesrock
10:35 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
Here's that storm:

cold core storm
Member Since: June 29, 2006 Posts: 65 Comments: 3197
27. weatherboykris
10:24 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
Pretty hot and pretty dry.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
26. lightning10
10:23 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
Make the heat go away :(

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 41 Comments: 630
25. weatherboykris
9:50 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
Eyes aren't only restricted to hurricanes...nature 'wants' eyes to form,but usually systems can't develop enough convection around a center for a clear eye to develop.Just one of those things.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
24. Inyo
9:48 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
if only it would form, maybe it would bring some much needed rain to southern California.. but it isnt going to happen.

more interesting in the central pacific water vapor loop is the cold-core system with an 'eye' type area of dry air.
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 873
23. weatherboykris
8:27 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
No uncertainty about it.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
22. weatherboykris
8:27 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
Either way-it's right at the equator.It cannot physically form.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
21. Tazmanian
8:24 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
well there more then there was on sat and sunday may be not march more but there is some
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
20. weatherboykris
8:21 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
And there aren't that many banding features anyway.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
19. weatherboykris
8:19 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
Taz-that's too close to the equator.
Member Since: December 9, 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11346
18. Tazmanian
8:16 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
in the
East Pacific where mx is that 90E in the makeing? and look at the BANDING Featured on the low and wind shear is low where that is about 5 to 20kt i think it may be are 1st 90E may be are 1st TD 1E dont you all think this is a little soon for this for them?

lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
17. N3EG
6:45 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
Check out this Pacific thingamabobber here... scroll down to Water Vapor Western US 16 or 28 km animation.
Member Since: April 23, 2005 Posts: 38 Comments: 231
16. Patrap
6:43 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
Or the Deity on top of it.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
15. Patrap
6:42 PM GMT on March 12, 2007
The mountain took it..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.