Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

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Good Afternoon Everyone

La Nina is coming into effect earlier than forecasted.

TC George is forecast to move in to very hot waters (32C +) one it clears a part of Australia. For more info on the storm and the warning associated with the TC come to my blog or HadesGodWyverns.

Taz that convection has 0 chance for any kind of tropical development as conditions are very unfavorable across most of the basin with 50-60kt windshear across parts of the atlantic give it a few months and then we could start looking out there.Adrian

Posted By: LowerCal at 11:40 AM GMT on March 04, 2007.

Caffinehog, always glad when you share your informed viewpoint.

There's only one point in your comments I take issue with. (BTW I took college Chemistry and Physics as an engineering major.)

When water warms up, it holds less of ANY gas.

Well, when water warms up, it holds less of ANY gas when saturated. I don't believe the oceans are saturated with CO2 now. I believe the oceans continue take up CO2 from the atmosphere and are becoming increasingly acidic.

However if/when the time comes when the oceans are saturated the nasty positive feedback you describe will kick in. There may even be positive feedback before then due to the loss of sea life from increased acidity.


Yes, you're right about the saturation point, but there's also an equalibrium to take into account. When a gas in the atmosphere is at equalibrium with a gas dissolved in water, warming the water shifts the equalibrium so more goes into the air. Therefore, the warmer the water, the more CO2 is in the air, even if the oceans are NOT saturated.

I should have been more precise.

Not yet, taz... when you start seeing areas of shear below 20kt, then we can start talking about chances of development. Maybe in the east pacific....

BTW, CO2 has some interesting properties that make it MORE subject to shifts in equalibrium than most gasses. While most gasses are in equalibrium between being atmospheric and being dissolved in the ocean, (which depends on temperature, CO2 also has an equalibrium between being dissolved CO2, and being carbonic acid. When you take away dissolved CO2, the carbonic acid gets converted back into CO2 to replace it, and then that gets lost to the atmosphere. This means that the curve is not linear, but in fact exponential.

This should scare the crap out of you if you truly believe in human-induced global warming.
If you're not sure about it, then it should definately make you think.

This, among other positive feedback loops, such as the thawing of frozen carbon deposits and the albedo effect of northern ice, makes me think. Basically, I believe that if we truly ARE seeing the signs of global warming, that means it's probably already too late.

Updated my blog with the Latest Warning For TC George.

A little bit of what it says, TROPICAL CYCLONE GEORGE has reformed close to the north Kimberley coast and is
expected to move into the Indian Ocean during this morning.

That was from the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN

Come to my blog to read the full warning

Caffinehog, thanks for setting me straight on saturation vs. equilibrium. I did well in college Chemistry but that's the last time I actually used it, lol.

Thanks also for the additional info on carbonic acid and the exponential release curve on CO2.

Yeah I definitely have an uneasy feeling about the gathering momentum of the positive feedbacks working against us. I'm hoping (in a cross my fingers way) some currently unforseen negative feedbacks might buy us a little more time.

In the meantime however I'm taking all the reasonable positive steps I can. Energy efficient appliances, thrifty use of petroleum fueled transport, etc. and saving money doing it.

Off on a tangent - that chem talk reminded me of Carbonic Anhydrase
The choice of animals & plants for moving CO2 -fast.. Working & Lurking HI

BTW... just to head off any crazy ideas:

CB, carbonic anhydrase will NOT shift the equalibrium towards carbonic acid. Enzymes only speed up reactions, they do NOT shift equalibriums!

Yeah, it's definately a good idea to do things to reduce your CO2 emissions, regardless of whether or not it has any effect on global warming. It contributes to the future energy independence of our nation, and helps avoid wars like the one we're in now. It also saves you money if you own whatever it is for a reasonable period of time.

Two easy, affordable, money saving, environmentally things anyone can do is:
Install compact fluorescent bulbs. They cost 3-4X as much as a normal lightbulb, but last at least that many times as long, and us 1/4 of the electricity.

Another thing, get rechargeable batteries. Use them twice, and you've put less waste materials and carbon into the environment. Use them 4-5 times, and you've saved money. And some modern rechargeable batteries, specifically Hybrio and Eneloop brand batteries, don't go dead on their own like the old rechargeables used to. Plus, they'll last WAY longer than alkalines in anything that would use up their power in less than a day.
Additionally, modern batteries don't contain cadmium or have memory effect like the old nicads, so they're much more environmentally safe.
Just make sure you get a smart charger to maximize the life of the rechargeables.

BTW...
True, that.

I bought nickel metal hydride (NiMH) rechargables a while ago for the convenience and to save money. They supply enough power for 95% of my battery devices but they do gradually lose their charge sitting on the shelf.

I'll check out the Hybrio and Eneloop. They'd be suitable for emergency kit batteries and with luck powerful enough for the remaining 5% of my devices too.

(comment to fix blog title on list page)

LowerCal,
You can slow the drain of unused NiMH batteries by storing them in the fridge.

Also, be aware that leaving NiMH batteries uncharged for several months can kill them, as can leaving them in a flashlight that's left on long after they are drained. Eneloop and hybrio are more immune to the former, though.
And again, I emphasize a SMART charger, otherwise you'll take years off the life of your batteries, and could kill them during a single overcharge.

Tropical Cyclone Advice Twenty-Two
===================================

Tropical Cyclone George [CAT 1]
14.5ºS 125.7ºE - 45 knots 982 hPa

wind gusts up to 65 knots

Tropical Cyclone George [Category 1] is located 115 km north of Kuri Bay and 210 km west of Kalumburu, and moving west at 8 knots.

Tropical Cyclone George [Category 1] is moving off the Kimberley coast out into the Indian Ocean. The system is expected to intensify overnight as it moves westwards away from the Kimberley coast.

Gales with gusts up to 60 knots are being experienced on the coast between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay however they are expected to ease as system moves further away from the coast this evening. Gales may extend southwest to Beagle Bay for a period overnight if the cyclone gale radius increases or the cyclone takes a more southwesterly track.

Heavy rain is being experienced in the north Kimberley and may cause flooding of low lying areas..

Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings
=========================================
A CYCLONE WARNING continues for coastal areas from Beagle Bay to Kalumburu.

Best energy saving tip I know:

buy a $10 folding clothes rack instead of using the dryer.

In the summer, a dryer pumps air-conditioned air outside and adds waste heat to the house. In the winter, a dryer pumps hot air outside while a rack re-hydrates the house.

A rack is simple, quick and eliminates the need for ironing time on everything except church/ office quality clothes. Plus it folds away beside the dryer easily.