The calm before the storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:24 PM GMT on August 19, 2005

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The tropics are quiet today. The only area worth mentioning is the large tropical wave pushing off of the coast of Africa, which the UKMET model develops into a tropical cyclone by Tuesday. However, the GFS, Canadian, and NOGAPS models are all pretty ambivalent about the system and do not develop it much.

No hurricane season has ever gone at full tilt all the way from July to October. Active seasons have always had quiet periods when the large scale wind patterns alternate to a different mode, creating more wind shear over the tropics. This year, that quiet period is here now, and is forecast to continue for at least a few more days. However, this may change next week. The GFS model predicts that the high shear values that have dominated the Caribbean for the past few weeks will finally relax. And beginning Friday August 26, shear values may relax over the rest of the primary hurricane genesis area in the mid-Atlantic. The GFS shows an endless succession of tropical storms developing from tropical waves moving off of the coast of Africa beginning late next week. And from August 30 continuing through the end of the GFS's 16-day forecast period, the model predicts two and sometime three simultaneous tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. This prediction has been maintained over at least the past four runs of the GFS model, so it is not a fluke one can blame on a single bad model run.



Keep in mind that computer forecasts of specific tropical storms developing are VERY unreliable--particularly out seven days and more from now. The GFS is likely to be dead wrong about the specific timing of the tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa, which waves might develop into hurricanes, and where in the ocean they may develop. What is believable is the GFS's forecast of a fundamental shift in the general atmospheric circulation leading to an enhanced period of hurricane activity. If the GFS model is correct, the current time of calm will transition to a time of storms late next week.

Jeff Masters

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1261. lefty420
5:49 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
i ammoving to the new thread started by dr masters. all pleasecome as i want to talk more with all fo you
1260. lefty420
5:46 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
to every one, all tropical cyclones from depression to hurricane have a eye or center
1259. lefty420
5:45 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
sounds nice storm jumkie
1258. SAINTHURRIFAN
5:44 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
lefty you seem very knowledgable i enjoy your comment but dont get so wrapped up in models and satellite pictures. by the way
you seem to be obsessed like me with these things you really need to try joe bastardi i think you would find him very interesting he is eeeerily accurate no offense he puts alot of these other so called experts to shame who only know gfs and trust it like it is jesus. keep up good work.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
1257. StormJunkie
5:41 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
Lefty, I am in Charleston and if one should come this way I may be able to work with you on a place to stay. Good secure brick home off the ground and not too many trees. Keep it in mind if nature warrents.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1256. CosmicEvents
5:41 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
to Saint WRITTEN BY Lenny(lefty)

no, all storms from a depression to a hurrican form an eye wall. the stringer the storm the more verticle it will be hence the evolution of an eye. when looking at a forming storm you look for the formation of an eye wall while in most weak storms like a depression it may not be closed you will finally get one when it reaches ts strength. easiest way to look at is all cyclones have the same mechanics. just the stronger and more concentrated it is u change the name from a depression to a ts to a hurricane. now the evolution of an eye wall feture as i see in the link shows that the storm has good outflow and is organising.

.
.Lefty.....with this statement you lose any credibility that you have as a forecaster. I think even the bimbos on the weather channel know that an eye is a feature of a strong tropical cyclone only, namely a hurricane. I think that you and stormtop are actually the same person. Please leave the next blog alone and let us discuss the tropics. We'll muddle through without your insight.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5640
1255. lefty420
5:40 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
we shoud all take this to the new thread see you there
1254. whitewabit (Mod)
5:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
dr masters has a new thread up
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 365 Comments: 31735
1253. lefty420
5:37 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
ok tx i didn;t use those links to dtermine my decision just couple links i picked up real quick to give you. now the best thing to do is watch the microwave dat tutorial on the navy site i will give u . its long so if you want to watch it later its on you. it describes the formation of a eye wall in a forming tropicl system very clearly

storm a llc i the circulation and center of the low pressure of the storm the eye wall is a colection of intesned cludiness and storms that are nessacary to keep the engine going, like a piston in a car engine.

here is the link to the navy site, click on the green button next to tutorial called comet

Link
1252. StormJunkie
5:36 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
Tx- would the eyewall not be the coolest part of the storm and inside the eye the warmest?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1251. outrocket
5:36 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
cant believe you all ran hawkeyewx off..he was one of the best minds on forcasting left in this blog, Many have left this blog because of the fighting here and bickering over EGO's..well the learning curve on this blog is sure in decline,keep fighting and you will run the few good ones left off too...then this learning curve totally crashes and the guest to this blog will no longer get facts just someones speculation based on thin air...
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 104 Comments: 11010
1250. StormJunkie
5:31 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
Lefty, What is the difference between a LLC and an eye? And could this lead to any of the confusion between you and TX?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1249. txweather
5:31 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
Lefty I'll read the links but with my degrees I've read about all that is relevant to this already.I've studied tropical cyclone development and spent several years just looking at systems as they were developing to try to see most relevant factors.

link 1
Big error. It states the eye is the coolest part. WRONG. Sinking air in the eye makes it a warm warm and oppressive place, not the coolest. Remember sinking air is warming due to compression. This is a good site but does have errors occasionally.

The second link he just says that you can see the eyewall with the TRMM. Thats true, but weak systems don't have one. Actually TS sometimes don't have much organized convection and at best have a broad area of light winds. This isn't an eye yet.

Be careful about taking these links to heart. You seem pretty smart so look at more scientific ones and learn about the storm.
1248. lefty420
5:28 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
wave off of africa with center at 11n and 23.5 w
1247. rick1
5:27 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
what storm or wave are ya'll talking about
1246. lefty420
5:23 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
here is the 85ghz ssmi microwave. cenetr is about 11n and 23or24w

Link

this is a ir loop of the system. you can see the 2 circulations the exposed one to the north which is the remanats of the other low and the other circulatin under the convection the the sw of the islands. just look at the low clouds to see the cir and be patient this is a large loop so will take lil time to load. set speed to fast for best veiwing


Link
1245. SAINTHURRIFAN
5:20 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
yes david caused it to weaken to nothing then in 48 hrs went from 30mph to cat 4. so while blob n of hisp. doesnt look like much its headed to area where it could develop.i will agree though not likely.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
1244. lefty420
5:19 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
well it is starting to develop an eye wall in the satest ssmi 85ghs data and the center which was exposed last night is now covered by deepconvection and has for some time. the pressure as also droped 2 mbs in 12 hrs showing its getting organised. there is a cdo feature devloping and will take off once the last bit of spin from the dissipating low to its north winds down. in about 24-36 hours. it will be a depression soon all data is supporting that. now i am with you on track. every one has an opinion and educated guess but i want to wait till it forms and than i have 4-6 models runs to compare, thats 24 hours of diff model runs than i will give a decision on hwere it will go in the short term. movement is about due west. you are seeing the convection from the banding slide wsw as it starts to move around the circulation i will provide some links to support this in my next post
1243. 147257
5:18 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
we do that all the time talking about which path it going to follow when it isnt developed :P
Member Since: August 2, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 68
1242. weatherboyfsu
5:13 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
I remember frederick, it came along just after david....i remember the satellite images...it was a good size storm.....1979
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1241. Weatherwatcher007
5:13 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
So what dou you think will happen lefty? When will it become a depression? I still think it is too early to talk about track though. Once it develops, the models can do what they do, I think they are unreliable in forcasting a track for a storm that has not developed yet.

Oh yeah,

I do see a wsw motion. I don't think it will be recurving if it continues on this motion. Just my opinion.
1240. lefty420
5:10 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
anytime in the next 24-36 hours and i am not sure it will or won't at this time. not enough is known and models are no help
1239. SAINTHURRIFAN
5:10 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
tx fredrick much underated winds in pascagoula 7 miles from where i live sustained winds 135 gusting to 170 when wind gage broke at chevron also was a very large storm. tore daupin isl. into 3 pieces took out entire causeway bridge worse than ivan who was weaking at landfall. in 1979 was costliest natural
disaster at time. i guess it just didnt east coast kind of
like some of texas bad storms dont get as much ink 47 hurricane and betsy also rank above some of these recent storms sorry just a pet peeve of mine.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
1238. Raysfan70
5:10 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
Yes, and the sand is gone. Watch out is all I can say now.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
1237. StormJunkie
5:09 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
When do ya'll see the wave turning in to a depression?

And why would it not make it west if it developed now?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
1236. Raysfan70
5:08 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
storm please don't start again everything was calmed down. And we were having a good conversation..
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
1235. weatherboyfsu
5:08 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
Hello Raysfan......I guess the Shear is forecasted to let down...maybe we will see some interesting action soon.....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1234. Raysfan70
5:07 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
but they were telling everyone here to watch it, that some of the VIPIR models where showing it turning right that is why the hurricane center wants to do away with the line.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
1233. lefty420
5:05 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
once again, i do not argue a point i give u info tx. provide me with info to the contary and i will gladly check it out and tell you waht i see. once again thats how i work
1232. weatherboyfsu
5:05 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
I think we ought to call this the "THE VINDICATION BLOG"....LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1231. Raysfan70
5:02 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
hey fsu
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
1230. lefty420
5:02 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
lol did u click the links and read one is and interview with a top cyclone reasercher. all tropical cyclones form eye walls as part of their development. if u don;t want to read them then don't but i will find tons more for you
1229. txweather
5:00 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
No lefty you are wrong there, but I'm not going to argue. Just ask Dr. Masters.
1228. weatherboyfsu
4:59 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
Hello people.....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
1227. lefty420
4:56 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
links i can find to explain this tx

Link

Link

now you will have to read some but thats on you
1226. SAINTHURRIFAN
4:55 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
amen tx its got to stay weak or its going after sword fish
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
1225. Raysfan70
4:55 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
Eleana was bad here but no more than a tropical storm. First one I ever experienced moved from Chicago was ready to go back
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
1224. txweather
4:54 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
SaintHurrifan I agree with you. Yes andrew was bad but, it wasn't the end all worse storm. I bet if given choice anybody would take Andrew over Camille. Andrew in my informed opinion wasn't even a 5, but thats already been argued on the blog and I'm not goin there. For the record the debate is only between 155 and 165. We all agree it was a bad bad storm.
1223. lefty420
4:51 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
i amsorry tx but all tropical cyclone have eye walls vivibleim mircowave data. thats one of the first thing i learned when learning about micorwave dat while most storms under tropical strom strength do not have closed eyewalls.
1222. txweather
4:48 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
Lefty let me give you a lesson(and yes I am very qualified to do this). An eyewall is a feature of a very mature tropical system. Not always a hurricane, but at least a very strong storm.

The eyewall is possibly the key element in the intensification of hurricanes and its development often signals that we have gone or are going from tropical storm to a hurricane.

What you are refering to is banding around the center, a very important event, but by no means an eye. Often as storm devlop you will get a banding eye where the different bands wrapping around the center have encircled the center and give the illusion of a true eye. Usually this is the first sign that a system is moving on up.

Now about this system, still a wave, no more. If you want it to make landfall(I hope you don't), it better stay a wave for a long time before developing. Because if it develops out there its odds of coming west are approaching zero real quick.
1221. lefty420
4:46 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
td 10 is dead but should bring rain to atleast south florida in a few days
1220. SAINTHURRIFAN
4:46 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
i agree lefty if it stays south george and ivan are to good examples. of course subtopical ridge was strong. ray i agree
about history. also i understand andrew was bad and charley
but weather channel history dwells on these i guess no offense ray if they dont hit florida or east coast camille the worst ever fredrick cat4 made frances look like a weak step sister
and charlie was bad but are they really that worse than these gulf storms i guess cantore awc thinks so. also elena a cat 3
was one of the most unusal cat3 125 stronger than jeanne but
never get the same plub. ray keep simms and ride the cadillac warrrrrrrrrr eagle.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
1219. lefty420
4:46 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
weatherwatcher thats wind speed. starting to show wind speed around 40-45 kts in places but rain flagged and most likeley not at the surface. if you click this link guys set the speed to fast. this is a ir loop and shows the 2 areas of circulation, the disipating low to the north and the circulation under the convection south of that. as the low to the north dissipates the second will be able to take off

Link
1218. Weatherwatcher007
4:41 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
Look

Link

Link

There are some oranges.

How accurate are these and what do they mean?
1217. Raysfan70
4:40 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
lefty do you think td 10 will do anything?
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
1216. Raysfan70
4:38 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
they are saying that what is left of it is suppose to come across here Thursday but that is still to long away.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
1215. lefty420
4:36 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
towlady i will do my best. few yesr ago i know it snowed in oarts of florida like a couple inches so u never know.

yeah my bill is high lol but i be trying to cut down like i have my comps go into standby and shutdown the hard drive after 10 mins of non-usage, i try to turn lights off but you can never do enough. my saving grace is that most things in my house run on gas, like the hot water heater and what not so that saves alot and my gas bill is only like 50 bucks way cheaper than my eletric
1214. towlady
4:34 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
Rain will be acceptable as a substitute. I agree with you, Raysfan, a bedraggled TD10 would be real nice about now.
1213. Raysfan70
4:33 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
You can keep your but can I send you Simms? PLEASE? Think that they over rate him because of his dad. We should have kept Johnson and Shuan King.

I understand that they use history to forecast these storms, but history was broken last year.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
1212. lefty420
4:33 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
yeah saint i know about the usage in models, and do feel that for a storm to reach the carribean and the gulf the weaker the betetr but my point was its not always the case and it probly will stay wea cause its a long way from a depression to hurricane and we still don't have a depression classified yet and she is still moving west. i think the low lat of the center of only 11n will help to keep her well south of anyt weakness in the ridge but i really do not ever feelcomfortable talking bout track till we have a stormed formed as i do use the models to form my concensus and right now they are not very track reliable due to the storm not forming yet
1211. jeff14photos
4:31 PM GMT on August 21, 2005
gosh lefty id hate to see your electric bill

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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