TD 10 is dead, and will rise no more!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:24 PM GMT on August 18, 2005

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The Air Force Hurricane Hunters flew into the remnants of TD 10 east of Puerto Rico this afternoon, and found that the system no longer had a closed circulation. Satellite images show that the system has deteriorated significantly this afternoon, with very little deep convection occurring. Surface winds measured by the Quikscat satellite are under 20 knots and TD 10's remains have become a tropical wave over the Atlantic. Regeneration into a tropical depression is very unlikely, as this would take several days, and the system will be experiencing increasing shear by Sunday.

I can't see any obvious reason why the system fell apart today; vertical wind shear values have continued to decrease, and are now down to 5-10 knots. Water vapor satellite imagery shows no dry air around the system. Situtations like this emphasize how little we understand about the formation process of tropical storms.

The remainder of the tropics are quiet. There is considerable cloud cover over portions of the southern Caribbean, but wind shear levels are near 20 knots over most of the region--too high to permit tropical development.

Jeff Masters

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351. CFLweather
8:18 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
There really is nothing better than a Florida lobster. Yeah Maine lobsters have alot of meat, but Florida lobster is much more satisfying. Also, they are rather easy to attain if you do any diving.
350. Raysfan70
8:18 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
to far from the beach for that for me they would all be gone before i got there. Will have to deal with the Ham and Enchiladas.
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349. hurricanecrab
8:19 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
lol Wabit - nothing placates a mob like good home cookin' ooooWEE! dat good
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348. hurricanecrab
8:16 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
CFL - sounds good! Will have to try that! After storms down here we walk the beaches and pick up conch and lobster. Yum! The conch can live for a few days insulated in their little water bladder, but ya gotta get to the lobster QUICKLY>
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347. Raysfan70
8:15 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
here is a hurricane helpful hint if not noted when your power goes out and you have 1)a generator 2)a well you can always hook your well up to your generator through your breaker box.
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346. jeff14photos
1:16 PM PDT on August 19, 2005
food what kind
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345. whitewabit (Mod)
8:13 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
hurricanecrab

you can put out that mob tourch things have calmed down now our thoughts have turned to food
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35077
344. CFLweather
8:13 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
Its easy enough, prepare your meat mix in a pan (I prefer chicken, sour cream, and enchilada sauce as a simple yet delicious mix). Assemble enchiladas as desired. Put in baking pan. Cover with sauce and cheese, put foil on the top, and throw it on the grill for 20-30 minutes.

Only requires 1 baking pan, and 1 sautee pan. Easy to make, and delicious.
343. Raysfan70
8:14 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
bye shera have a good one from me and ALEC
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342. hurricanecrab
8:14 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
bye Shera!
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341. hurricanecrab
8:08 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
good thought Raysfan! CFL.... how in the WORLD do ya cook enchiladas on the grill? WAIT! We'll call 'em "ITCZ enchiladas", thereby satisfying the weather segue... tell us more
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340. Sheraqueenofthebeach
4:10 PM EDT on August 19, 2005
Off and on.... have out of town plans.
SQOTB - OUT! (for Alec)
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339. Sheraqueenofthebeach
4:09 PM EDT on August 19, 2005
Hey...ANYONE with hurricane recipes....send them to me. (Camping recipes work too)
Thanks all.
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338. Raysfan70
8:09 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
you to shera talk to you later have a good weekend guess you won't be on this weekend?
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337. Raysfan70
8:08 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
CFL you have that posted on Shera blog?
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336. Sheraqueenofthebeach
4:08 PM EDT on August 19, 2005
Off to home depot for plywood and tarps.... (jk)
You all keep it civil here...and have a great (safe) weekend.
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335. Raysfan70
8:07 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
but it is a survival kit for THE WEATHER
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334. CFLweather
8:05 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
What about enchiladas on the grill? Made those a few times after Jeanne and Frances.
333. Raysfan70
8:06 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
something that i watched on the weather channel from a Andrew survivor. But she kept a Turkey. Perfer ham myself.
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332. Sheraqueenofthebeach
4:05 PM EDT on August 19, 2005
Send it HC.... the fridge clean-out period is crucial. Need before during and after meals....
'em, sorry - back to weather.
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331. Raysfan70
8:04 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
h.c always keep a nice ham in the deep freeze for hurricane season fast to defrost and fast to cook in a short time
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330. hurricanecrab
7:59 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
I've got a recipe for "Shrimp Lili" created during Hurricane Lili, but I didn't post it on Shera's blog because it's a bit too frilly for 'survival cooking'. It's basically a clean-out-the-fridge stir-fry with shrimp

sorry all I know this tain't weather
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329. CFLweather
7:57 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
whitewabit-I see what your saying, and my best guess is that it hasn't had enough time. Everything looks right for development if it can establish a low level circulation, it at least has a mid-level circulation RIGHT NOW.
328. whirlwind
3:56 PM EDT on August 19, 2005
I see that spin Storm is talking about. Also the monster wave just now coming off the African coast. its on the water and its STILL a dark red...not blue..wow
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327. Raysfan70
7:56 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
i will have to go to shera blog and get your recipe h.c.. always like to try new things.
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326. Sheraqueenofthebeach
3:55 PM EDT on August 19, 2005
Still here ....working on a batch of beef jerky soup...
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325. whitewabit (Mod)
7:55 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
i see the spin at 83 question- why isn't there more convection the water is very warm there
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35077
324. hurricanecrab
7:54 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
Shera you still here? Better get than cookbook fired up. No potted meat delicacies please. Now there's an oxymoron. If it's meat, why's it gray?
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323. Raysfan70
7:52 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
Could start getting very dicey now. better get a few more blogs going before we over load this one.
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322. CFLweather
7:49 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
So, we have three areas to watch. Alot of great information is thrown about here, keep it coming.
321. hurricanecrab
7:46 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
Sea surface temperatures and TCHP look alarmingly favorable right around us down here..... on this tiny tiny little rock.... alone .. ~whine~
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320. hurricanecrab
7:45 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
Raysfan - I always keep the hip waders handy. Never know *L
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319. CFLweather
7:43 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
And take a close look at the shear values for the Gulf of Mexico, and the forecasted shear values. Not good news for us if anything tropical enters that area.
318. hurricanecrab
7:43 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
okay Stormtop and CFL I understand now.... I'm used to you all expressing locations in terms of longitude & lattitude ..... learning, always learning thanks
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317. punkasshans
2:43 PM EST on August 19, 2005
the former TD10 does look a lot nicer at the moment, and a slight spin can be seen again. However, it only has a day and a half or so to get itself together, get a low and blow up before it will be sheared apart again. Odds are low.
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316. CFLweather
7:39 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
hurricanecrab-take a little better look, there is definately a circulation in that area.

It's moving genereally NNW, something to really keep an eye on, those Gulf waters are frighteningly warm.
315. punkasshans
2:39 PM EST on August 19, 2005
Stormtop is talking about a mid-level low pressure that the NHC has been talking about as well. It is a nice spin, but does not have the convection and hasnt reached the surface yet. However, any spin the tropics needs to be watched. It does not look promising at the moment, but may be in the future if it reaches the gulf like stormtop seems to think.
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314. Raysfan70
7:38 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
things might start to get deep again soon
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313. hurricanecrab
7:37 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
Stormtop - what do you mean when you say "at 83 degrees"... not a challenge just a question. I don't see anything there
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312. hurricanecrab
7:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
lol with raysfan
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311. Raysfan70
7:36 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
you might want to keep that torch lit for a little while longer. LOL
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310. Raysfan70
7:34 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
sorry h.c. ment to say yes about your comment on life
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309. CFLweather
7:26 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
hurricanecrab-its a little difficult to know right now what the steering currents will do to this wave. I see 4 scenarios coming about if this wave survives.

1.Ivan-like track through the south Caribbean Sea then north up into the Gulf like you said.

2.Straight run west, then north of Puerto Rico then WNW as it nears the Bahamas putting it near east coast of Florida. Not sure if there will be a NW or N turn once the Bahamas, much like Irene.

3.Turning north into the Atlantic, far east of Bermuda.

4.Enter south Caribbean sea like Ivan, then turn north over Cuba to enter the Gulf of Mexico or maybe even western atlantic near florida
308. hurricanecrab
7:32 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
I'm here Raysfan..... you think it's safe for me to extinguish my 'mob' torch now? ha
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307. Raysfan70
7:31 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
I think that the old td 10 is done but...... not ruling it out tis 2005 the year of what should be the IMPOSSIBLE.
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306. STORMTOP
7:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
very pronounced spin at 83 degrees...looks like it will miss the land area maybe skim the yucatan before moving into the bay of campeche...this is something everyone should watch especially now....also watch 10 its not over it will be back...
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305. hurricanecrab
7:29 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
Understand StormJunkie. I don't think most of the rugged comments were pointed at you nor whirlwind. Ya wanna be a thrillseeker, what the hell, most of us were in some way or another at some time. NO worries.
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304. Raysfan70
7:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
hey hurricane crab.
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303. Sheraqueenofthebeach
3:31 PM EDT on August 19, 2005
didn't think so...
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302. whitewabit (Mod)
7:29 PM GMT on August 19, 2005
sorry queen i was not
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 374 Comments: 35077
301. Sheraqueenofthebeach
3:28 PM EDT on August 19, 2005
101 spam recipes for when the power's gone... think of the potential sales in "hurricane alley"
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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